Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Daz, unvrkw
What is the demand for this product? Maybe a great product to protect vintage cars which need a complete respray, but any chance of this replacing existing primers for new posh cars? That can hardly looks the best mass production tool.
Maybe enough to keep agm going though, and who knows what is coming!
Still, better than fishing rods!
BoL

Hi Gssk
36.8 pps, see:
https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/ex-dividend-date-search.py?searchTerm=bdev
Hi sunset
What is your target to sell before Divi?
I am tempted to hold cos I'm hoping for quick recovery after XDivDt (depending on Politics). Very happy, av price 555, even Float av only 622.
If I sell float av price goes down to 380 (then divi 9.68%).
BoL

Hi Jakob
I used to get Coy Refs (which gave all numbers based on the same calcs for all companies). If you click fundamentals at top of grg page and scroll down you will find grg Per 17.8. There are different ways to Calc Per (historical, projected).
Anyway, if Per 32 justifying tw Per 35:
Then Sp should be 162.4 * 35 / 6.4 = 888 ! Wishful thinking I suspect, but could be right.
Jeffries report said the market expected a 12 % decrease in house prices after Brexit, which was unjustified.
I think house prices will not drop regardless of Brexit and we will Remain In, justifying Pre Brexit Per's (60 to 80 % > current Per's, so same increase in Sp), which were already undervalued, or real value of builders > double current values.
At least not long to wait now - could be sorted by end of Oct, hopefully before end of year.
BoL

Ps
Gordon Brown's end of Boom / Bust not his fault (but prev Govt's going back to Maggie - deregulating Banks).
The Banking Crisis meant nobody could get mortgages, hence Builders slump, while previous slumps caused by increase in interest rates, which GB would stop.
So if you ignore Banking crisis, when was the last slump? 20 - 25 years ago, hardly cyclical. Now BofE in charge of regulating banks and interest rates, so should be no more issues.
Still think it is different now, but as I said it hardly matters. If the market re-values builders our shares will be worth more, (one off bonus), but they will be less undervalued. Still making about 20% pa which is good enough for me.

Hi Strictly
Certainly Eps Growth not as good as it was. Not a good signal.
Generally I think this is due to a shortage of Materials / Labour. Psn have set up their own brickworks, and roof tiling Depts.
Also a timber frame factory (which doesn't require craftsmen in making or erecting them.)
Now that all the builders who lost their jobs due to the Banking crisis, are back in building again, I think the skills shortage is preventing Builders from increasing production (and so Eps.)
If you can sell everything you build, you must build more, but due to Govt policy (for about last 40 years) not enough apprenticeships and so craftsmen. Exactly the same issues with Doctors and Nurses (but been the case since NHS was introduced, about 70 years ago.)
This trend could be overcome if we Remain In and pull craftsmen from EU, on top of that if we join Euro they would be tempted by the high wages paid here.
Obviously the reverse is also true if No Deal, not only that £ will devalue compared to Euro so wages less competitive.
I said before Brexit will have no affect on Builders. Should have qualified that by saying supply / demand. For the reasons above I think it could effect the number of houses built in the future.

Bwy EpsG est just 3.7% seems very low. That should be achievable with the existing Labour, so expect results will be better than forecast.

Do you have Pbv for bdev, bwy, psn rdw & tw. Also be interesting to know what grg is.
BoL

Hi Strictly
Great Post But
"It's diffirent this time." It Is!
Brexit has had a massive impact on Builders Sp's.
I don't think Builders are cyclical any more, (when was the start of last cycle?) nor that their performance depends on Economic performance of the country. For the last 10 years UK on verge of recession (due to austerity) yet builders thriving.
Dividends have grown from almost nil to around 10%.
The good thing is everything above justifies an adjustment to Book Value hence increase in Sp.
Dividends in particular should be reflected in PBV. ie if 5 years ago PBV 1.5 with no Divi then adjust to ?.?? with 10% Divi.
Don't know if that should be + or - 0.1 or 0.2, cos don't watch PBV, nor whether Divi built into PBV.

"It is what it is."
Certainly is, but whether it changes or not (for the above reasons) doesn't really matter. No change and Builders remain seriously undervalued. Increase in Sp's (as PBV decreases to 1.3), Builders remain not so seriously undervalued. Main point here is still getting about 10% Divis on top of growth. ie Return about 20% pa. Another point, hardly risky with the cash and margin (builders high risk?)

Posted this on tw board:
"Just looked up Greggs, a great NE company but compared to tw (from fundamentals here):
grg / tw
EpsG 10%, 6%, Margin 8%, 20%, Yield 1.7%, 3.8% not incl tw spec - increasing yield to about 10%,
Cash £88m, £734m, Per 17.8, 6.4.
To me tw numbers look far better than grg, so should have a higher Per than grg (say 20).
Then Sp should be 162.4 * 20 / 6.4 = 508 !"
One makes sandwiches the other houses, why grg Per almost 3* tw I have no idea, but it is what it is.

Last point.
As you know I invest in 5 Builders, cos any can have a disaster, so spreading risk.
Simply by chasing Yield, bdev 8%, psn 11%, and tw almost 11%, it should be possible to make about 20% without growth.
Not quite as simple as that, cos need to pick up Interims and tw Spec XDivDt too close to psn Fin XDivDt.
BoL

Hi Jakob
Builders undervalued? Just looked up Greggs, a great NE company but compared to tw (from fundamentals here):
grg / tw
EpsG 10%, 6%, Margin 8%, 20%, Yield 1.7%, 3.8% not incl tw spec - increasing yield to about 10%,
Cash £88m, £734m, Per 17.8, 6.4.
To me tw numbers look far better than grg, so should have a higher Per than grg (say 20).
Then Sp should be 162.4 * 20 / 6.4 = 508 !
Not going to happen next week, and the market could be right - after Brexit no new houses needed, but everyone needs to eat.
Reckon you could be right & BoL

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/brexit-news-latest-government-ready-to-reveal-concrete-proposals-for-new-deal-with-eu/ar-AAHWZLJ?ocid=spartanntp
Deal impossible, BoJo revokes article 50, so we all live happily ever after. He did his best !
BoL

Hi Jakob
Not an easy question to answer. Depends on time frame. Certainly well up long term (since 2013), up this year, but probably down over last 12 months. Everything messed up by Brexit.
At the moment I am targeting Divis, (which is not my systems idea) for 2 reasons:
Builders moving as a group depending on Politics (not results).
Hoping that recovery after XDivDt will be short as sentiment improves.
So bdev for now then psn then tw then psn again. Difficult to pick up tw cos Spec XDivDt too close to psn Fin XDivDt.
Fwiw I think my system improves performance by about 20% over Ltbh, and hopefully, things will return to normal soon.
BoL

Hi Johnson
Thanks for the report, but generally I take little notice of them.
Agree Brexit risk overplayed (12% decline ridiculous) but to pick psn as being cheap now is surprising to me, cos the damage done will take a long recovery time. Hardly matters if they can sell all they build though.
Build cost for tw will be in alignment with all other builders, so should not be downgraded for that reason.
No reason given for downgrading bdev, I agree they are comparatively overvalued, but that is because they have no real issues.
Got my Float mainly in bdev (for Divi), bwy (for FinRes) and psn (for next year growth). Back to almost 100% invested, cos even though increased uncertainty, Builders Sp's level for week (cos increasing chances of No Brexit). No Brexit plan includes borrowing money off Hsbc (up to 50% Trading a/c).
Interlude from my programming system - BoL

OMG
Scheming, hypocritically using EU Law to get his own way, lying all the time, can you believe it?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/exclusive-government-plan-to-invoke-eu-laws-supremacy-to-ensure-brexit-on-halloween/ar-AAHTLkU?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=mailsignout
Well I don't - all part of the Plan - can't put up with all the lies!
Only read the first few lines cos I get too annoyed, so quoted full article.
Besides destroying his own party his language is so provocative, it is setting people against each other. What was the majority of leavers over 3 years ago? While younger generation want to remain. As I said I think he is becoming too toxic to remain as Cons PM, but who is pulling the strings?
Definitely need to rethink our Political system (based on EU?)
BoL

Hi Troubles
Those odds are most disappointing. I don't gamble (ha ha!) but could maybe get 20 to 1 for before Halloween.
Note: If no extension granted I think Govt has to revoke article 50, cos can't allow No Deal. Macron has already said non to an extension (but Merkle will probably talk him round) and Irish PM almost bound to - only takes one.
Hi Bamps
If we had EU laws, Scotland would have vetoed Brexit 3 years ago and we wouldn't be in this mess. Completely agree with you, but I blame politicians and the press for making things worse than they would have been.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Just finished my No Brexit investment plan.
Fwiw Target (sell Prices):
bwy 5800, 80% increase; rdw 1050, 72%; psn 3500, 71%; tw 260, 62%; bdev 1000, 59%.
Based on Pre Brexit Per, and my idea of justifiable Per's (but not including a justifiable revaluation).
Hopefully these prices will be reached next Summer, depending on when decision made (later if Ref or GE).
BoL

Hi Ben
Think BoJo might be getting too toxic, but who knows? US got Trump.
Democracy just isn't working - has it ever?
BoL

Ps
Vote has to be last possible time, so before Halloween.

Hi Troubles
Just read this:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/johnsons-plan-is-to-turn-his-supreme-court-humiliation-into-rocket-fuel-at-the-polls/ar-AAHQk7N?ocid=spartanntp
Make what you like of that (so quoted in full), only way left for him is a vote in Parlt to revoke Article 50, and Job Done. Don't think anyone will argue and will probably win cos Corbyn can't make up his mind (his Party and Unions pro EU), and everyone else in favour of it. He could even remain PM, without GE.
This is the best possible result (Imho. cos no delays) and means BoJo the saviour of the country!
BoL

Hi Daz
Need to wait until FinRs and agm might be in close period prior to that (don't know if that applies to Aim's). I suspect little movement until then.
BoL

Hi DGR
Could be right about 140's, but only way is if No Deal which I think is impossible now. I remain optimistic and am hoping for a (bouncy!) recovery from now until Spring / Summer 2020 to 250 +. Time frame depends on Politics.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Since No Deal banned and Deal impossible, I think BoJo could revoke article 50 himself before Halloween.
Interesting to note that a Spanish/Greek plan to bail out Cook, failed cos not supported by UK Govt (and that little thread has been deleted!)
BoL

Hi Troubles
"You can't produce a baby in a month by getting nine women pregnant."
I assume you are referring to Jam tomorrow, but you will get 9 per year. You say you don't like chasing Divis, nor is it my method, but need to be patient.
In the mean time, might as well pick up Divis cos Sp's based on Politics rather than results, and if No Brexit I expect bdev Sp will recover quickly..
Having said that rdw increased by 15%, bdev 3% since FinRes. This is no great surprise, cos of lack of info from rdw (no PreFin). Normally the case Historically for rdw. Made a few pennies there, but Sold Float now, could go further?
Hope to hear from you soon and if not I will assume you have drowned and we will meet up in heaven some time!
Only a bit of light drizzle here, thought I might have heard a little thunder out to sea.
Still optimistic and think everything going according to Plan. No Brexit!
BoL