Member Info for Nige_W

Hi TMT
Think there is no chance of a Deal, so this infers a GE or 2nd Ref, and I think BoJo thinks he could win a No Deal Brexit vote, strengthening his position as PM.
Psn is by far the best value now then tw followed by bdev, but my point is there is a risk with psn, so you should diversify. According to my system tw IntRes due 30/07/19 (which should be good), psn IntRes 20/08/19 (???) and bdev FinRes 04/09/19 (which should also be good), which will al change relative Sp's.
All this before the critical date end of October (assuming no delay cos of 2nd Ref, which I think will happen), so no need for a decision now.
You have just 5% in builders but I cannot believe your other Coys come anywhere near builders in terms of fundamentals. I have around 80% in builders (system broke at the moment), cos I can't find any better value.
Hi Tom and Bamps
Interlude right now, building ggp and cerp into my system, should have it working tomorrow night (but still have to get Historical prices). From the facility of who holds these shares, also hold ??? shares, I will build into my system these other shares and analyse them.
Hi Troubles
By "When Brexit Sorted" all I meant is when a decision is made. Uncertainty alone is causing lack of investment now, and even if No Deal Brexit I expect Sp's to increase. I had a secure job as a trainee QS after leaving school, but there was no way I could afford buying a new house then. Still live in the 3 Bed semi (ex council house) 40 years later.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Agree with you it is difficult for young people nowadays, but I think not much worse than it used to be. The only issue is when inflation was high, the mortgage became easier to pay off, while a 30 year mortgage probably means 30 years now.
Also no help for parents with child care costs (pre-school), and NHS is free (if not suffering from Dementia). The best candidate (Rory Stewart) thought it was essential to address these issues - no mention since. If new PM chosen by a clapometer during the debate, he would have won easily.
Already helped out my 2 daughters a bit, little one has a 15 month kid and another on the way, but insist they will only buy what they can afford themselves.
Don't need the money myself, pension and Divis mean I'm OK, but hope the shares go well for them, so I can give them a more significant amount (and maybe have to pay tax on the money I give away!)
10 tenths cloud cover now and no wind - another storm on the way?
Hope you escaped the flooding and can enjoy the scenery in the Lakes.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Did very nicely out of the DotCom boom, lost a lot during DotCom bust, but made far more than I lost.
Never invested in the small DotComs but large SW Houses, but the market lost faith in them as well, so all bought out by foreign competition now. So much for the market always being right!
Hi Troubles
Whatever happens with Brexit (and how long it will take to be sorted), I can't see it affecting the demand for Housing. When the market realises no effect on Builders, it is only a matter of time for Per's to return to PreBrexit levels, hence inc by about 50% by this time next year, psn about 100% (if no disasters!)
Also I think PreBrexit Per's are too low (because market still thinks building is cyclical). When was the last builders slump if you disregard the Banking crisis?
Anyway, 50% increase in 1 year (+ 10% Divis) will do for me!
Two thunderstorms here after Tropical Rain Storm in the last few days - most unusual on NE Coast.
BoL

Hi TMT
You send great posts, but I advise you to diversify as I said to Tom (with builders). Psn is making a massive change in management and culture - it could go massively wrong. Good idea to hold bdev and tw to average down - tw look cheap compared to bdev, so could be worth a punt.
BoL & BoL to Troubles as well cos didn't add it - no probs, I only do that to show an opinion on a post..

Hi Troubles
Sorry you invested in nano, after my recommendation. I've averaged down to 35 and am going to buy more in Isa to av 30. Value Imho (based on IP, workforce let alone Runcorn prodn facility) worth much more than £100m = Sp of 42 (based on MrktCap of £33m @ 14).
If you invest in value I think you need to be patient.

Hi Tom & Bamps
I am adding ggp (and investing a small amount) and cerp to my system. In theory should automatically update everything (but not done this for a long time and system changed a lot since then - so could take some time, but fun!)
Tom, I still think you should diversify your port to more than 2 Coys (psn, bdev and possibly rdw and bwy in building, and cerp and others in Aims).
Bamps, if I was clever I wouldn't be making a huge loss this year! Not too worried cos I believe the Coys I hold are undervalued and will find their true value soon. The reason for builders surge last week, is we might have Brexit sorted by end of October.
The reason for my guesstimate of 250 to 270 for tw this time next year is I believe Per's will return to PreBrexit levels. If No Brexit then 270 - simple return to PreBrexit Per, and 250 if No Deal Brexit as Market realises Brexit has no effect on housing Sales (so delayed a bit).
I have a feeling that the market is holding money back from builders simply cos no solution in view. If a Ref Called or GE it could delay a decision, so we could lose the current gains.
Anyway, do we ally ourselves with Trump and US or Europe? No idea what's going to happen now. If Obama still there, US might be possible but Trump ???
BoL

Hi Bamps
Fixing system - will have it done tonight, but still haven't received Coy Refs so don't have latest estimates.
Shouldn't make much difference though.
Reckon 250 to 270 this time next year (always the optimist!)
BoL

Sorry about numbers at end as I said system broke.

Hi Bamps
Sp reflects market sentiment, not how profitable the company is.
System broke right now but if you look at Profit or EpS you will see there has been a steady improvement, and the markets massive overreaction to Brexit reflected by lower PeR's.
Big rise this week is due to BoJo's promise that we will be out after October, rather than dragging on indefinitely.
Answer: things will improve after October with up to 50% inc in Sp, but don't know how long it will take.
BoL
2016 - 213
2017 - 271
2018 -
2019 -

Ps
Last daft point. My system tells me nano worth £32m now @ 13.6. I reckon the best half dozen R&D Scientists will be worth that alone - how much will 100 be worth? Let alone IP, neither of which are regarded as assets.
Just buy the Company, double their wages and make it a R&D place only.
Last time I worked as a computer contractor (earning about double the permis), I know they wouldn't have employed me if I wasn't making money for them. Power to the People!

Hi TLW
Just had a look at after hours trades, one sell of 1 share, another of 3 shares? Are these some form of code (but why after hours?) Also a -ve Buy of 300,000 shares - normally this indicates a cancelled buy, but no buy of 300,000 shares to be cancelled. Shorter getting out?
Bol and any ideas?

Hi TMT
Your logic is fine as far as it goes, but think you can't assume they will be built as fast as they were. One of the reasons for poor quality was the rush to get them up and sold, so if 10 builders could build 10 houses in a year but now (with new checks...) they can only build 9, there will be a 10% decrease in Profits and Eps.
The critical point is "whether the market believes in the transition". The Sp movement after IntRes will depend on that, but Who knows?
As a possible indicator if Relative price 04/01/19 = 100 then Cur RP 19/07/19:
bdev 134, tw 118, rdw 109, bwy 108, psn 98.
Big difference between bdev and tw is cos very good bdev PreFin (10/07/19) and tw possibly still suffering from XDivDt (06/06/19). rdw and bwy lagging cos less cash.
Average of bdev and tw is 126 less 98 means psn 28% behind bdev and tw, which Imho is a massive overreaction, but obviously the market disagrees.
Also (as I have said before) the Sp reflects the idea that there will be a building slump after Brexit, (which I don't think will happen) hence psn Per of 6.9. PreBrexit they were more than double that (justifying double the current price) so I think the market has got that wrong as well, and who is best prepared for slump anyway?
I wrote all this at lunchtime but system went down and lost it all, so doing this in Notepad and copy to Lse.
BoL and wish I had some cash reserve, cos I think it will be a bumpy ride.

Apologies about last line - didn't mean to send that.

Hi TMT
You seem to be saying that it will have almost no effect, but if time between start of building to exchange of contracts is increased by 5%, then T/O will decrease by 5%, so I don't think it is a one off cost. It will effect Eps in the future (by a small amount which hardly matters) but what is more important is how Big Investors will see it? Psn going in the right direction.
So the big question is Invest before 20/08/19 (IntRes) or not? My opinion is that a change of Ceo often coincides with a with a change of company fortunes. in this case from great to in line (with the others) as he sorts out the issues. Reaction by the Big Investors will determine where Sp goes, but I am not hopeful.
Don't expect psn to achieve PreFin estimates as the new culture takes over, but almost impossible to say what the Big Guys will make of it.
Incidentally my system is totally messed up by Brexit and no idea what to do now- too much money in tw and psn.
Sooner this is resolved the better.
BoL
Daftest thing is Big Guts have already discounted psn by almost 20% and don't think that will increase.

Hi TMT
I don't believe any deal possible now, so it's either No Deal or No Brexit regardless of what BoJo says. Expect him to say Deal impossible then 2nd Ref and if you are right we leave with No Deal, strengthening his position. Brexit party will disappear, maybe big losses for Lab/LibDems/Greens as well cos not going to change this. Boris could call a snap election and win by a landslide.
Or he could be wrong (like his 2 predecessors) and the mess we are in now will be nothing compared to what will follow.
Hope 8% decrease in active sites does not mean 8% decrease in Sales - that will impact Eps.
BoL

Hi TMT
I think if a No Deal / No Brexit vote No Brexit would win. The Polls I have seen recently support this. This wouldn't matter to BoJo cos he would remain PM, as opposed to trying to force No Deal Brexit which would lead to a GE and chaos as both Cons and Lab would lose hundreds of seats to Farage, LibDems and Greens and Politics is bust.
So best solution for him is to call 2nd Ref, No Deal or No Brexit, which I hope, leads to No Brexit.
Politics is still bust, Farage will still take votes off main parties, as will LibDems and Greens cos P*ssed off with the current shambles, but at least he is still PM. Think Corbyn is out of it.
BoL

Hi Sunset
Glad you read my message re deluge on psn, so you know where I stand.
Ceo sacked and the remuneration committee resigned. Psn slowing down building, to address quality issues and introducing solicitors retention until snagging completed, amongst other things, so things are changing.
Harlow obviously a disaster but how long ago was that? No excuses should never have happened and shows (at that time) the priority was handovers regardless of quality.
Agree with you that Brexit should have little effect on builders, but the market believes it will, hence ridiculously low Per's now despite excellent numbers for all builders, and psn has the highest Eps growth, Margin, Divis and Cash in Bank. Only thing it has the lowest of is its Per (6.9). Interims due 20/08/19 so will have to wait and see.
BoL

Hi TMT
Disagree with you about Politics - I think No Deal is less probable now causing the rise in prices. I think the eventual outcome will be 2nd Ref (No deal or No Brexit) and/or GE.
Not even BoJo would ally Cons with Farage, so Lab / LibDems / Greens would win, which BoJo will want to avoid at all costs.
Easiest way out for him is to call 2nd Ref.

Hi Screenl
Big increase in buys/sells today so think something is happening. Don't think it can go any lower so I remain optimistic.
BoL

Hi sunset
Psn have done a lot to address the issues they had, up 1.9% (bdev 1.4%) today, but I agree with your point. This is reflected in the Sp which is almost 20 % behind bdev, but it will take a long time to fully recover. It does infer they have more potential. If No Brexit Sp could double, while bdev increase closer to 50%.
BoL