Member Info for Nige_W

Ps
Miles out of date with building, but should consist of nothing more than a piece of insulation between houses with a common timber frame between them (ie only applies to terraced and semis and probably only in roof space).
Must admit though that 1 hour to fix it means they have a pretty good team. Init installation should take minutes - different matter with Flats.
Never had any extra insulation between houses in my day (cos timber frames were treated to resist fire) but there again, think we were still using one brick walls between houses.
Cost Bns, I guess you short on Psn?

Hi Exeter
You should read the article again - particularly:
"We are taking this very seriously and have taken extensive action since the issue was discovered. To date, we have written to c. 3,200 home owners in the South West region to inform them of the issue and to arrange inspection of their property. A dedicated team has been established to carry out the inspections and to deal with any remedial work, which is normally carried out immediately and typically takes less than an hour. We have performed over 2,700 inspections to date. The process of notifying home owners and arranging inspections is ongoing.
"We are focusing on the South West where the majority of our timber frame properties are built. But to be confident that we know the extent of the issue we are carrying out sample inspections in the 10 other Persimmon operating businesses which utilise timber frame construction. Incidence of the issue so far has been limited to a couple of sites but the inspection programme is continuing. We are following the evidence - if these inspections indicate that we need to inspect every timber frame property then we will do so."

265 families in temp accommodation is a separate issue.

Hi Exeter
Where did you get £350 m from ? Only ref I came across was 1 hour per house to fix the issue.
Must be on a helluva pay rate down south!
BoL

Hi Johnson
My apologies - you are correct - psn paid 02/07/19, tw 12/07/19 (6.45%). Need new specs!
I also hold bwy and rdw. Just got another 2.34% from bwy today.
These % ages are my returns, not based on Sp on XDivDt (according to my SS which I can't read).
Any thoughts on my last message?
BoL

Hi Johnson
Depends on what you are looking for. From the accounts psn looks better value. Relative price since 04/01/19 psn 20% behind bdev (because of Brokensh*t), but as you say no Divi for a long time.
About to pick up 5.5% Divi (12/07/19) on top of 6% Divi (recvd 29/03/19) from psn.
So if you want income go for bdev, value go for psn, or both by selling psn soon and buying bdev for Divi (before 11/10/19), then return to psn for next Int Div (about 06/03/20).
Best plan is anyone's guess cos of Brexit. When will psn value be realised?
Fwiw I think revaluation of psn (20% cf bdev) will be slow and steady, so maybe go for bdev, but carefully watch psn for signs of recovery.
BoL

Hi Compass.
As I said nano in collaboration with many Universities on many applications.
Be nice if they could do more research, but until they get some income coming in don't think it would be wise.
BoL

Hi Crow2
From the article I Posted:
"Samsung’s quantum dots, however, are cadmium-free. They’re based on indium (In) instead. After much research and development, Samsung is currently the only company that produces cadmium-free quantum dot displays. Samsung started focusing on quantum dot technology in 2001, and has since registered over 150 patents on the subject."
BoL

Hi ddubya
As far as I know nano only make CFQ Dots. It is up to the people who use them to explore the possibilities of applications - like defence. I am quite sure these Coys like Plessey, Vusix... and UK Uni partners in medicine... are well aware of this, and are pursuing their own agendas with US big Corps in mind as Torpedo said "Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Honeywell or even Nasa", who will all be well aware of nano.
This is fundamental research like inventing Coal! Obviously Coal already existed and people knew it burned well, and would keep you warm, but it Fuelled the industrial revolution in GB (inspired by Great Engineers, now great Scientists - nano mats never existed before).
Nano could still fail cos major competitor Samsung - see:
https://news.samsung.com/global/why-are-quantum-dot-displays-so-good
But Samsung have only 150 Patents (no doubt some of which belonged to Hansol) and paid £75m for them. Only work in Display - not even thinking about all the other Apps, while nano have 5 times that number.
I don't like to get personal but Rhambo is a fool to talk about Per's, value of 6p... Because he has no understanding of the Science or Dynamics of it. - IP < £1m?
I (mistakenly) tried to explain the value of IP in terms of slimy US patent hunters, without explaining the ground breaking research Man Uni did originally, further developed by nano.
Samsung would love to buy nano (for their mass production techniques, quality control...) but could not while Apple was lurking there. But is Apple out of it? I think not. But a bidding war between Apple and Samsung would be interesting (and Chinese).
If Rhambo keeps on being personal I will filter him. I hope for a polite reply from him.
BoL

Hi Itsa
At least you're getting your moneys worth - like the train ticket which doubles in price but takes twice as long!
BoL

@ Rhambo
There is a minor industry in the US of buying IP and claiming companies are infringing the patent. The way to avoid this is for the company targeted to buy the IP whether they want (or use) it or not. Saves £Mns in legal fees. Don't know if Arm ever used any of the IP they bought, and you think IP worth < £1m?
As I say it is not a matter of anyone wanting to buy it or not. Dow, Merck, Samsung and Chinese cannot let IP get into the wrong hands.

@Rhambo
As I said I think nano IP worth Far more than Samsung's acquisition.
Partnerships is the way Apple do business - nothing new there.
I was criticising your method of projected sales and Per leading to 6p valuation.
In accounts the same basic ideas apply (regardless of whether you make !0m sarnies per year or 10 planes), so it doesn't matter that Greggs is a retailer.
You did not answer my question re nano IP value. Since intangibles £3.7m, I assume that is what you think they are worth.

@Rhambo
2 Coys taken over for IP, 1 by Arm for £100m, another by Samsung for £75m, I believe IP value of nano far > than both, so obviously not built into Assets.
Greggs have no contracts so according to your reasoning will sell no sarnies next Year.
When Boeing designed the 747 it was to fulfil a military requirement, with a small number of a/c required.
As surprised said the value of nano depends on potential. Either CFQD sales will fly and my valuation is reasonable, or they will not in which case they could be worthless. One other possibility is nano go bust before the sales fly, in which case a company will buy nano IP. This is worst case scenario, which is the basis of my calcs.
Have you thought of what the value of the 750 patents might be? £3.7m or less?

Hi NB
House Builders performance almost mirrors Civils over last 10 years, (or at least since Brexit vote) so can hardly lump them all together, Civils definitely suffering right now, but I see no reason for any change to Builders.
So "Housebuilders joined civil engineering firms and commercial building contractors to warn that a wait-and-see …", should be qualified by who said what when.
I'm not worried and still think Builders are massively undervalued cos of Brexit. Value will be realised eventually - don't know when though. As you say maybe when Brexit sorted (if Remain In, or much longer if No Deal or Corbyn).
BoL

Hi Troubles
I realise I am often too optimistic but think my analysis is OK.
Still haven't got my Coy Refs, which includes PBV and things that value their assets, but convinced nano worth far more than £33m in assets alone.
Only issue is, is there a market for CFQDots? If so buying a Coy with a completed production facility (besides Dow and Merck contracts), the IP and workforce, means this is a T/O target.
If not could be worthless, so certainty a gamble.
So DYOR... BoL

Hi Rhambo
To look at earnings with a company like this is meaningless. Not yet realised.
Potential earnings is what matters, but almost impossible to estimate, at least they have 1 years grace. Even if they don't materialise (and they don't go for raising more cash) the way to value the company is asset value remaining. This consists of 3 main things:
IP (750 patents), existing property and plant, and goodwill.
Unfortunately these are also very difficult to estimate but:
From memory Samsung bought IP of a company (Hansol?) for £75m.
Property and plant from Accounts (probably not much).
Goodwill. By this I mean the workforce, who are world leaders in their field.
Imho IP £200m, P&P £30m (guess) , Goodwill £100m = £330m
Mrkt Cap £33m, value £330 = 10 bagger or justifiable Sp about 140.
This is the worst possible case.
Look forward to hearing for you & BoL

Ps
Sorry, Cycle idea on another thread. My contention is that if you ignore the Banking crisis the last builders slump was almost 30 years ago with a 10 year cycle based on interest rate increases.

Hi TMT
Don't deny some 1st timers might not buy New if HtB stopped, but same house will be bought some time next week by an existing home owner.
Since builders are flat out anyway it doesn't really make any difference. Same applies to relaxing Planning rules... Only way to get more houses built is to get back some of the 50% who got out of building (massive wages?), new apprenticeship schemes or import tradesmen from EU.
None of which will have a short term effect. Mebbe this Cycle will last 35 - 40 Years?
BoL

Hi Bamps
Imho psn still almost 20% undervalued in comparison to tw and bdev (which are UVald by 50% cos of Brexit or >100% by Justifiable Per). No idea how long they will take to recover to true value, but when Yield > 10%, still growing and prospects remain good, I'm not bovvered.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Great link - final evidence?
Never even realised nano (Apple) were working on the iPhone camera, thought it was automotive IR sensors, which could still offer opportunities (hence still talking). Nano make QDots only (as far as I know) while other Coys build them into screen layers.
So really nothing much has changed (apart from Sp, leading to Mrkt Cap of £33m as opposed to IP value of much > £100m, besides production facilities).
Mebbe Apple figured they couldn't sell an iPhone for > £1000 so abandoned the idea. CFQDots too expensive for a phone but not for a car.
Averaged down to 35, and if < 16 on Monday might av down to about 30. Value 3* on IP alone and if Apple out of the equation, I expect a bidding war between Merck, Dow, Samsung and Chinese. Could sell for > £200m.
Really should do more research on Coys as opposed to working on my system, but at least system is fine right now (so a bit more time).
BoL

Hi TMT
Well reasoned but I still don't agree.
If you subsidise carrots there is a good chance more will be bought, (or tell people it improves night vision), but you are not going to increase demand for New Homes by subsidising new houses. They are not subsidised anyway, just delaying / increasing debt, so no difference in total demand.
As I said Builders are not bovvered who the buyers are and sales prices are based on like for like houses in the area, so if HtB stopped only difference is the distribution of buyers will change from 1st timers to existing home owners.
Critical point, "some people buy homes who wouldn't otherwise do so."
Do you mean New Homes? Some might not (buy new) but will buy an older house or rent instead.
Same number of roofs required, which can always be sold cos Builders cannot build enough, (since they have probably lost half the workforce - due to Govt incompetence).
Builders are all Flat Out building - need more EU Labour, like Doctors, Nurses, Teachers or anything else the Govt interferes with. More people in Mod than RAF or RN?
The clown Boris boosted builders Sp today (cos of Stamp Duty), but Imho he is the last chance of No Deal Brexit, Deal impossible, only option left is No Brexit.
BoL