Member Info for Nige_W

Hi stt1
As Troubles said this is in process and will (hopefully!) be resolved soon - almost History.
Cost to Big Builders will be meaningless.
As I said HTB does not affect supply / demand (nor Brexit, Trump, Putin …)
Have you noticed the Brexit affect on Civils (Carillion, Galliford) has been massive, yet almost no effect on Builders. The market has got it all wrong (again!)
Yet the most desirable Coys in the country (by Profit, Cash, Margin, Divis…) have almost the lowest Per's. Madness and an opportunity.
Hi Troubles
Still think no chance of No Deal Brexit, and yet that is priced in (not that it makes any difference).
BoL

Hi stt1
I cannot understand why the BBC and media have taken such a -ve view on Builders.
Leasehold is History now and only affected a small number of new builds in certain areas, (so why bring it up again?)
Heard that number of 50% HTB in relation to psn - no idea where it came from! I simply do not believe it.
The point is HTB does not effect supply / demand at all. Everybody still needs to have a roof over their heads, and if you cannot afford a new home, buy an existing one or rent - demand has not changed. If HTB stopped tomorrow the buyers distribution of new houses would change, but not the total number.
Yet another case of Govt interference for no good reason.
No benefit to house builders - how does it help existing home owners? and if housing bubble formed there would be less demand than supply - not going to happen any time soon.
Where do they dig these things up? Positive Money??? Fake News.
BoL

Hi TLW
Most of my predictions have a proviso - dependent on something. The simplest one is if we Remain In, then I sees no reason why Per should not return to Pre Brexit levels (now around 8.0 used to be about 12.0) which infers a 50% increase in Sp I will recalc numbers when I get next Coy Refs.
Since I think No Deal Brexit makes no difference to Builders fortunes, I think their value will still be 50% more than now, but this will not be reflected by the Sp.
Also, as I said before, I believe Pre Brexit Per's were too low (given cash held, margins, divis…) and a Per of 24.0 is not unreasonable = 3 * curr Per so 3 * curr Sp. This is not a prediction of Sp - just an idea of what I think Sp should be.
BoL

Hi RB
What answer? I will reply to a specific question(s).
As for BBC etc, I have no idea why they now report school kids opinions … (as opposed to experts) - just more fake news. You have to decide on the value of the report yourself (most of which has no value at all).
Lost faith in News (papers tv...) ages ago - they have lost faith in Opinion Polls, so don't report or commission them any more. The Blind leading the Blind?
BoL

Hi Troubles
Vote didn't go the way I was hoping, but I still think No deal Brexit is impossible - one way or another.
If this ends up with a GE (more probable) don't know how I will vote now.
BJ summoning the troops by saying you won't have a job unless you vote for me.
Is this shambles pisspotical or what! Alaska looking Good.
BoL

Hi TLW
Agree with everything you say except 180+
If No Brexit I expect tw to return to Pre-Brexit Per's which means about a 50% increase in Sp. What is more (given cash held, margin, Divis...) I think tw should be valued at far more than Pre Brexit levels, giving multiple times cur Sp.
Even if No Deal Brexit these valuations still apply because buildering is no longer a cyclical sector. This is based on the market's belief the their performance based on the performance of the Economy (not simply supply / demand - which is not going to change), which infers tw still worth my estimates above, Only trouble is market won't change its mind any time soon, so they will remain massively undervalued, but that doesn't really matter when they can't go bust and keep on paying the Divis.
BoL.

Hi Troubles
All a bit depressing but I think (hope!) Bercow and Parlt are going to make No Deal Brexit impossible (without Parlt vote or 2nd Ref). Remain optimistic, but am a bit worried GE on the way, then who knows (in a broken Political System!)
BoL

Hi Taverham
None of my business (just watch Gleeson), but they found a new CEO remarkably quickly.
Tensions have probably been high for some time at top level.
BoL

Hi Tmt
XDivDt 13/06/19 so expecting 110 drop in price then. If you want to buy best to buy after XDivDt.
Surprised how low Sp is now (as though No Deal Brexit built in) while I think No Brexit favourite now, whether by Parlt vote or 2nd Ref.
BoL

Hi all
I have also heard of Bed and Isa, so phoned HSBC and was told they don't do it.
I understood that you could sell shares (to Max £20k) and then buy them back in Isa instantly - at the same price. Still have to pay dealing charges though.
Anyone know who does do it?
My Isa on hold cos picking up divis from tw and psn - no way I am selling at these prices.
Float stuck in those 2 shares until some improvement, but still optimistic cos I think we will Remain In.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Great shot - don't know what has happened (other than Trump a No Deal Brexiteer).
Don't think Builders are stupid, but they have to anticipate where the market is going in 1 year or more, from planning to sales. A lot can happen in that time - in 1 years time we will be out of EU (or not!)
Hope this is a turning point so momentum changes to +ve.
Wonder what the tea leaves and candle sticks are doing?
BoL

Hi Tmt
Tw XDivDt 06/06/19 - Divi 6.5% at 166, psn 13/06/19 - Divi 5.5% at 2006. Nobody seems to be buying tw Divi right now, so don't expect people to be going in for psn either for Divi (unless another motive?)
I Calc fair Sp for tw 491, cur Price 166. When a Coy is undervalued by this amount, predators lurk. I suggest you have a look at tw board (generally the most popular for messages on Builders), where I try justify why tw worth 491. Same applies to psn but more so!
You will see I calcd pre XDivDt surge should push tw to 214, now 166 ???
Sentiment is so negative now that I think you are right - big drop for both after XDivDt = buying opportunity, particularly since Donald supporting No Deal Brexiteers, increasing chances of No Brexit.
BoL.

Hi Troubles
Hardly the results expected for a Sector on its last legs (as implied by the Per's) .
Of course we have not left EU yet, so when we do the Market could be right and no one will buy houses any more.
BoL

Anyone noticed Sp going up as sells go thru. This infers a very big Buy which is soaking up all the shares for sale. Goes thru as Sell cos seller got his Sell price.
Maybe an Institution has figured out psn about 20% behind bdev and tw this year, so reckon they are bargain.
When will the Inst stop buying or stealthy T/O?
BoL

Hi Troubles
My Price graphs support the idea you should sell Builders in May. Tw and Psn Fin Res and Divis early in the year could help to explain that, but as you said the big driver is Brexit at the moment. Turns it all into a bit of a lottery.
One thing I am sure of is that Builders are massively undervalued (tw 160 now my value 491).
Just need to be patient.
Noticed psn, 20% behind tw an bdev this year so most undervalued, is up 1.7% this week (bdev down 2.0%, tw no movement).
BoL

Hi TMT
Filters in Tabs above - easy. Not worth wasting your time with those two.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Hope you are wrong about Brexit effect lasting another 3 years. As you know I'm, hoping for Remain In, in which case I see no reason that Per's should not return to Pre Brexit levels.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Sp will drop after XDivDt by the amount of the Divi. If sentiment good it will recover quickly else could drop even further.
The issues you mention might affect Private Investors decisions, but the vast majority of shares held are by Institutional Investors, who are much more concerned with the accounts.
Looking for 283, 3 months after No Brexit announced, but maybe No Deal Brexit so who knows?
Not that Brexit matters to the actual value of tw.
BoL

Hi Troubles
As I said all Float in tw and psn now, so no Float in bwy (my oldest Builders share).
I bought at 1423 on 12/12/13, now 2741 = 91% profit, (bdev at 37%, rdw 44%).
All sorts of things will happen, which creates opportunities, but will never sell the original purchase.
No idea how long tw will take to reach 491, but not really bovvered. That is what I value them at, and no idea what price they will settle at after Brexit (maybe 283) - just they will be a lot more than 165.
BoL

Hi Troubles
My point is value will eventually be realised and value depends on Supply / Demand. The current imbalance will remain for years. Political considerations / Economy, make no difference to Builders.
If as I believe tw worth 283 now and this should increase by Eps growth every Year, this is the bargain of the century (apart from bwy, rdw and particularly psn). Can't go bust, massive potential (besides imbalance, 200k Social Housing needed).
Civils were regarded as Safe, Builders Risky. Nowadays the opposite is the case and this justifies a further revaluation of Sp. If Per 25.0 (then 165 * 25 / 8.4) = 491?
If you are holding a share worth 491 when Sp is 165, timing is not very important !
BoL
BoL