Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Ben
I don't expect Sp to start moving towards 214 until mid May, and not a good time to sell psn and bwy. My intention is to sell rdw Float to buy tw, but they are badly down as well, so that's on hold at the moment.
BoL

Hi sunset
Just about everything I say about tw applies to bdev. Two very different cultures, but their Sp almost mirror each other.
I like psn now concentrating on customer satisfaction, but how long it will take to push Sp up by the 15% it fell behind bdev and tw (due mainly to bad press), I have no idea. No intention of selling any Float until August anyway.
First time for years bdev and tw leading the other (non Lse) builders.
If Sp 100 on 04/01/19
tw now 130.7, bdev 127.8, rdw 122.6, bwy 118.7, psn 113.2 on 26/04/19.
Hope bad Brexit sentiment blows over soon.
BoL

Hi Bamps Troubles
I'm still hoping for 214 pre XDivDt.
System says sell half Float before XDivDt to buy bwy and hold rest til End of August. System doesn't understand Quality or Brexit issues. Lack of fire-proofing applies to psn and bwy (timber framed homes), but system thinks psn undervalued by over 15% in comparison to bdev and tw. This seems excessive even given the quality issues.
Got a big Float in psn but not too worried, system says don't sell til August. At least they are addressing these issues.
Might just hold all Float for Divi cos not too sure about investing in bwy but they are also about 10% undervalued cf bdev and tw (I thought this was cos of lack of cash, but maybe quality again).
BoL

Ps (sent by accident).
Very round calcs showed 5% inc in mats cost leads to not much more than 1% cost price (creating pressure on margins ??? of 20%). Yet at one point tw 5% down. Only conclusion the market hates Builders, which suits me cos it means they are undervalued (by about 50% or more Imho).

Thanks for the Info Troubles.
Don't agree with Chartist idea. Why not look at Eps rather than Sp (manipulated by the markets fear of Brexit). Then no flat line but steady increase.
Infers why did the market (incorrectly) drive Sp down to current Per's and that once Brexit sorted Per's should bounce back to at least Pre Brexit levels (or more cos now builders are as safe as houses due to cash and margins).
Very
BoL

Hi Troubles
Everything down I suspect due to more Brexit rubbish.
Just hope it sorts itself out soon so I can sort my Isa.
BoL

Ps
I meant Bldrs fortunes depend on Supply / Demand, Sp depends on the market, which also believes House Bldrs high risk cos cyclical and depend on how well economy is doing, despite Margin and cash in hand. Civils regarded as low risk, despite Carillion, low margins and massive debt.
For the above reasons I believe my numbers are minimums cos Bldrs now justify higher Per's than Pre Brexit levels. But that depends on whether the market can revise their preconceived misconceptions (which is doubtful).
BoL

Hi Troubles
214 based on idea of people buying Divi until Divi is 5% of Sp. Given improved sentiment I would say 100%, but with Brexit who can say?
276 is based on return of Per's to pre Brexit levels (ratio of profit per share to share price).
Imho it doesn't matter type of Brexit (No Deal, Deal agreed or No Brexit), but the market thinks this is critical. If No Deal Brexit long time for 276, Deal agreed maybe 4 or 5 months, No Brexit maybe 1 or 2 months.
Almost sure No deal Brexit not possible now, so hopefully 276 in less than 6 months after sorted.
The reason I think there will be a return to pre Brexit Per's (and Brexit doesn't matter) is cos builders Sp depends on Supply / Demand, and is not affected by Politics, so even if No Deal Brexit still worth 276 even if Sp drops. Then just hold and pick up Divis.
BoL

Hi Ben
Small adjustment - 4 things, last being profit so 5/4 = 1.25%. Round numbers assuming margin 25% (actually 20%), but totally agree drop of 10p ridiculous and will regain that by end of week.
My target prices 214 06/06/19 (Spec XDivDt) and ultimately 276 when Brexit sorted.
BoL

Hi mushroom
No profit in Civils (like gfrd) who also have massive debts (which broke Carillion), cos no demand for massive Civil projects, due to Brexit uncertainty. There may well be undervalued Ftse 100 coys. My idea on how to find them is to look for low Per's, then Margin, then Cash, then Divis and lastly Eps Growth. From this point of view nothing touches House builders.
Last factor, Potential. I see no reason that the shortage of housing will not continue (demand remains > supply) which means Bldrs can maintain margins, growth and increased Eps and Divis.
Nano has massive potential, but very risky in comparison, (even if sponsored by Apple or not!)
Last weeks hiccough in prices of builders will be gone before end of this week, so no worries there and I can finish off this years Isa.
BoL

Hi Sunset
Timber frame houses have been around for 100's of years and were just being introduced again when I last worked for Geo Wimpey (1980). Do any of the big builders still use this method or are they all back to bricks and blocks?
Still think the future is prefabs (factory built by robots, so no quality issues). Big question is should builders build their own factories or subcontract that out as well?
BoL

Hi mushroom
Had you only invested in the 5 Builders they increased by 22.6% average so port 24,520 now.
Or if only invested in nano (inc from 38 to 52) = 36.8% so port 27,368 now.
Admittedly very good times for Builders and nano at the moment, but I expect this to continue.

Another idea is to hold a base value in each company and move a float around between them. This way you always hold your Init investment. After selling float in rdw my average price should decrease to about 370 (bought Aug 2016) Cur Price 613.So nice big profit going forward!
Other advantages are minimising CGT and think of the yield on tw if you bought at say 40 in 2008 when Spec alone is 10.7
BoL

Hi mushroom
From my graphs for this year
04/01/19 = 100 then
bdev 127.8 now (26/04/19), rdw 122.6, bwy 118.7, psn 113.2 and tw 130.7.
Hiccough due to 5% mats increase almost gone already (max 5% loss on week, end of week loss about 3.3%).
Big loser psn which would have been about 130 now if not for Brokensh*t interview.
BoL

Hi Sunset
Psn has decided to let Buyers (or their solicitors) hold a retention until snagging complete. No doubt Site managers will come under great pressure from big chiefs to get that retention back Asap. An excellent solution to the issue imho.
Graphs look good but maybe skewed a bit cos tw & psn YE Dec, bdev Jun.
BoL

Hi Sunset
According to my graphs when:
04/01/13 = 100
bdev now 272.6, psn 293.0, tw 257.7
01/01/16 = 100
bdev now 98.2,psn 115.6, tw 93.6
06/01/17 = 100
bdev now 124.5, psn 121.2, tw 113.1
04/01/19 = 100
bdev now 129.7, psn 116.8, tw 135.7
So not much in it between bdev and tw, clear winner is psn until Brokensh*t interview! around 01/03/19.
BoL

Hi Albany
The amount of free shares issued was the same as the decrease in number of shares held. So effectively a share buyback. Since less shares issued Sp should increase by that amount (about 5%), but no sign of that.
My plan was to sell float in bdev to buy tw (spec 06/06/19), but on hold now and hoping for 5% inc in rdw price.
Not sure of share buybacks, bkgh been doing it for a while and has that driven up their Sp?
BoL

Hi Johnson
Completely agree with you. 5% increase in Mats cost is insignificant, yet tw down almost 5%. Same applies to all other builders but bdev only down about 2.5% this week.
In process of setting up this years ISA, but was unable to Bed and breakfast shares from Trade to ISA. Have to sell and wait to clear (3 Days), transfer and buy back (same day). I expect a quick recovery from this hiccough, so plan on hold until recovery. Also selling a chunk of rdw (after Divi) and buying tw (for Spec).
BoL

Hi Finley
If costs going up increase prices (thereby maintaining Margins) and when you an sell all you build no reason why not.
As usual a massive overreaction to a report that is not bad at all.
Completely different matter if very low margins and massive debt (like Civils), so buying opportunity.
Can't go bust (like Carillion) when £500 M in bank.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Not enough Tradesmen, Doctors, Nurses and whenever Govt run anything more Chiefs than Indians, and morale at all time lows. These are the only consistent things about our Govt. If we had EU laws Scotland could have vetoed Brexit. Time for a Change, but Is the Change Party only diluting opposition to Brexit?
Still think (hope!) No Deal Brexit cannot happen, our Govt will not be able to agree any Deal so only 1 thing left.
I've known some great trainees from school, 1 in particular (a Joiner) and a real craftsman, but he got out of it cos more money in installing double glazing. So mainly doom and gloom!
BoL

Hi Ben
Why should Builders do apprenticeships when they don't employ any Brickies Joiners... ? Is this a surprise that we have lost the skills when Builders figured out (Years ago) they could not afford to hold their own Labour when Govt controlled interest rates - creating the cyclical Boom / Bust in the industry.
Why does the Govt employ Companies not fit for purpose (NHS system, Farmers, No Deal Brexit..) when clearly they are not fit for purpose by employing them.
Not a good idea employ a useless subcontractor in Building, but people responsible will be found out and sacked, Builders are not incompetent - the Govt is so we need a change.
End of Rant and BoL