Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Bamps
I said Builders Sp are a bit depressing now, but mmany reasons for optimism.
I estimate tw eps as being 19.6 with a price of 165, giving a Per of (165 / 19.6 * 100) = 8.4
This is ridiculously low (considering Margin, Cash...), and due entirely to Brexit.
Jun-15 Sp 191, Eps 13.3, Per 14.4, so despite profit per share increasing from 14.4 to 19.6 (5.2p), the Sp is 26p lower.
If Per returned to Pre Brexit levels Sp would be 165 * 14.4 / 8.4 = 283 (not 276 as previously stated!)
The Market believes that builders fortunes are related to the performance of the Economy.
This is a misconception. Builders fortunes dependent on Supply / Demand, as proven by the fact that builders did well despite Austerity (less cash about).
As you know gfrd tried to buy bvs a few years ago, now bvs trying to buy gfrd.
This reversal is due to bvs doing well, while gfrd has been suffering due to Brexit (not many new major contracts due to Brexit uncertainty). Brexit doesn't matter to Builders but has hit Civils big time (Carillion).

Great time to top up (even if Sp drops a little more) cos the value is there.
If No Brexit Per's should return to Pre Brexit levels quickly, but if No Deal Brexit it will take far longer (not that it matters - value is still there).
Meantime quite happy picking up Divis.
BoL

Hi Solley
All a bit depressing now. All float in tw and psn and not selling either at cur prices, so Isa on hold.
Also my system is telling me to buy shares in bwy now, but no funds to do that.
Could use HSBC credit facility, but don't like doing that
At least I don't think things can get much worse (famous last words?)
BoL

Hi Feeks
You often were the counter to his optimism, which is fair enough, and proven correct in that this Company (in my, and most people here expectations) should be ahead of where it is now. Don't know what issues they are facing to get this working, but hardly matters if US partner still there.
Since they have a concentration of the best Research Scientists in the World, I feel sure they will get there in the end, so I remain optimistic.
He is a great loss to this Board, so I will have now to start reading, "The Other Side".
BoL

Hi jplay
I am not NigWit under another Name. You will see if you look at my profile I have sent almost 2000 posts since 2013, the vast majority on Builders (not NigWits interest).
BoL.

Hi Jilise
NigWit banned for being Politically incorrect. Think he is banned from ADVFN as well.
Shame cos he was best Researcher / Analyst Imho.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Just had a quick look at grfd board. The company obviously has a value, but I prefer to own shares in companies that have cash and low Per. Don't think tw would be interested in them, its taken years to build up the cash so won't be happy to blow it for Linden Homes. The rest of gfrd looks worthless to me.
I think a Deal now is impossible (EU won't move so TM Deal or nothing) as is No Deal (which needs Parlt approval), then only 1 thing left.
BoL

Hi Tom
Must admit it looks impossible now. My calcs overwhelmed by -ve (Brexit) sentiment.
Great time to buy cos I think of all possibilities Remain In is now favourite.
If that happens my old calc of 276 still applies (as Per's return to pre Brexit levels). Waiting for May Coy Refs to recalc, but don't expect numbers to change much.
Given Remain In I am hoping 276 should be achieved no more than 3 months after it being announced.
Even 276 undervalues tw cos Pre Brexit Per's are too low given Margin, Cash, Divis and Potential (like 200,000 social housing required).
This applies to big 5 House Builders (incl bdev, bwy, rdw and psn). Imho bwy and rdw even more undervalued and psn most undervalued.
Issues, rdw has lost its founder and Chairman, Steve Morgan - last time this happened rdw lost the plot until he returned. No doubt you have heard of psn troubles, but worth a gamble? I consider them as being 20% undervalued compared to bdev and tw, which is probably an overreaction.
BoL

Hi Troubles
I assume your prev message infers a Cons No Deal Brexit (Boris or whoever) cannot, be done without a Parlt vote. Parlt will never agree No Deal Brexit, so I think it is almost Job Done and we Remain In.
Only threat is Gen Elect, or 2nd Ref - neither of which will allow No Deal Brexit Imho.
Read somewhere 80% of Cons go for No Deal Brexit, 60% Lab remain In. Total Remain In far > No Deal, and can you believe Cons got the Ref going to unite the Party as Pro Europe? 80% against now?
Party Politics has had its Day and to need change now.
If my ideas are correct it means Sp should increase by 50% + when this is finally sorted.
BoL

Hi WW
Every year for the last 10 tw Eps has increased. Assuming this is translated into Sp movement (which it isn't due to Brexit), it is only a matter of time before the Sp returns to Pre XDivDt buy price - then sell and Divi for free.
Sentiment particularly low right now (and so Sp) so a good time to buy. Don't know how long it will take for Sp to return to Pre XDivDt price - depends entirely on Politics.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Interesting to see how markets respond to EU vote.
Since Con/Lab lost so many votes (and EU will not change May Plan so no Deal possible), I think both will have to go for No Deal Brexit or No Brexit. Labour probably will go for No Brexit, but who knows with Cons? Cons leader election just a meaningless embuggerance - delaying things yet again.
No way you can sit on the fence (Industry and the people have run out of patience).
Low point will probably be reached soon. The system is bust and needs changing. If I was wise all my money should be in cash now, but I'm not! Not too worried cos massive upside and things look more and more like No Brexit.
BoL

Hi Bamps, Troubles
Changing a house is not the same as changing cars. Imho changing legislation regarding construction is required like fire regulations (???). All the more reason to have just one set of rules. It would be easy to introduce Climate Rules and the same applies to Coastal Defences, Flood Plains...
This is the Govt responsibility which they have neglected for years, but don't even need to set up Depts to do this when they already exist in EU.
Need a level playing field (throughout Europe and including us).
BoL

Hi Troubles
The main point is the upside is great the downside not too bad. Things are up in the air right now but hardly matters.
Worst possible case borrow £1Mn Sp goes down to 100 and stays there cos No Deal Brexit, then Spec Div for free, Int Div and Fin Div pay Interest and when markets eventually realises No Deal Brexit made no difference to Builders, Sp goes up to 200+ then sell.
Didn't recalc projected Sp from Per's - 240, 276, point is it is far higher than curr price (168).
If Remain In No way will I even consider selling until 250+

Hi Bamps and Bazza
Builders cannot be expected to change construction methods by themselves (cos it would put them at a competitive disadvantage - it will cost more). This requires Govt action, but they are far too busy right now!
Hopefully when Brexit sorted these issues will be addressed along with 200,000 Social housing required, but this also requires cooperation between Govt and Builders.
BoL

Hi Troubles
The more I think about it the better the plan seems.
A Brexit Deal seems impossible now (EU won't move, so basically accept May Deal - who will do that?)
Leaves No Deal Brexit or No Brexit. Don't believe Parlt will allow a No Deal Brexit, so we Remain In.
When that happens Builders Sp will jump big time (up to 50% to pre Brexit Per levels), so no need to wait for next years Pre XDivDt surge, should happen before end of Oct (maybe Dec for full 50% recovery to 240).
This implies about a 50% increase in about 6 months = 100% pa.
Not only that but the Int Div and Fin Div should cover interest payments.

Only Issue is No Deal Brexit.
As I have said Builders fortunes depend on Supply / Demand (not Brexit, Trade War...) Interest rates are not going to change much (probably go lower if No Deal Brexit), but despite Builders rapid growth over last 10 Years (in spite of subdued growth due to Austerity) the Market sticks to its preconceived misconceptions.
At least we can hold the shares and at worst keep on picking up great Divis (knowing that SP should be 50% higher).
Also Pre Brexit Pers undervalued IMHO, From Margin, Divis, Eps Growth and Cash Held justify Per of 20 + not about 8 = 150% increase. Never known such a massive imbalance.
Next Govt might start building the 200,000 social housing needed, so still plenty of potential.
BoL

Ps
Daft 1 Year Plan

Hi Tom
As you say looks most improbable, but:
Daft 2 Year Plan.
Borrow £1000 and buy 595 shares @ 168, hold for Divi of 10.71 = £64
Sp drops to 100 after XDivDt but increases to 240 (12 * 20) on 04/06/20 (No Brexit) and Divi 12.00
Sell @ 240 (Just before XDivDt) =1428
1428 + 64 = 1492 = £492 profit on £1000 invested - almost 50% in 1 Year (less a tiny bit of interest).
If FatCat borrow £1 Mn then almost £0.5 Mn Profit.
Interesting to see what Sp reaches.
As I said Isa probably on hold and I'll pick up Divi.
BoL

Hi Owls
I'm still hoping for 214 before 06/06/29 - one can but hope! Looks like Isa Plan on hold and just pick up Divi.
Hi Wigan
Industries now told to build stocks again, and new ferry companies being set up. What a shambles!
Trouble is there will be no recovery now until No Deal Brexit is ruled out. Who knows how long that will take? And, of course it is costing £ Mns (at least 325 per week) in the meantime.
The System has collapsed (not collapsing), every cloud...? Something has to replace this rubbish.
BoL

Ps
With £1 Bn cash and 30% margin while maintaining Eps Growth, justifies a Per of at least 20, so I calculate Sp should be about 4500 now - but not holding my breath.
Can't go bust, don't even have to build houses, (sit on land bank until profitable to build again), so happy to hold on to Value. And who is going to build the 200,000 social housing required?

Hi Garageman
No of shares bought always equals no of shares sold, cos no issued remains the same.
If I buy some with no limit it goes thru as a sell by the person I bought them off and vice-versa.
Same applies to volumes so not really worth watching.
BoL

Hi Taverham
Like Exstatex Billy regurgitates the same rubbish, without even trying to counter anything anyone says.
He becomes the 2nd person I filter out.
Agree with you about Sp movement caused by market misconceptions. If No Deal can be made, I am hoping for a simple Parlt vote for No Deal Brexit or No Brexit, or 2nd Ref with same Question. In either case I expect we will Remain In. About only things that can go wrong is Boris takes over, or Gen election before October.
Even given No Deal Brexit it will have almost no affect on Supply / Demand (nor the 200,000 social housing Required, yet to be addressed by Govt), so I expect Builders will still do well.
Only trouble is it will take far longer for Sp to return to a more reasonable value if No Deal Brexit.
BoL

Hi KD
Just another Brexit wobble, means nothing in terms of the value of the company.
Suggest a review in 3-4 months time - should be in good profit by then.
BoL