Member Info for Nige_W

Ps
Tw piloting a system for new buyers to rent for up to first 5 years before buying at a discount on Init price.
Sounds like a good idea, but I still think the future is PreFabs.
BoL

Hi TMT
Do you really think HTB makes more new hoses being built? An apparent subsidy to people who want to own their own homes but does nothing more than increase their debt, or if no HTB, they would buy a cheaper existing house or rent. This does not affect supply / demand.
Builders Sales Dept's base their sale prices on like for like houses in the area. Not too worried who buys them.
Would a Help to Buy for pensioners seeking a bungalow make more new bungalows being built?
BoL

Hi courtier

Good repy ftom TMT regarding new ethics adopted by psn.
Current Rel Price of psn (when 04/01/19 = 100) is 98, tw 112 and bdev 119, so about 17% behind them, (psn and tw XDiv), This is because of an interview with housing Minister (Brokensh*t) who announced HTB might be withheld from psn, cos of bad practices (CeO Bonus and issues mentioned by TMT).

As I am sure you are aware the accounts of psn are fantastic - far better than tw and bdev.
Eps growth 10.8%, Margin 30%, Yield 12.1% (Divis 235, cur Price 1935), yet Per is 7.6 (a value of a company about to go bust). Given the margin this is most improbable (particularly since they hold 1.3 Bn Cash - gearing -40).
Regardless of Brexit (which will not affect supply / demand for housing - nor will end of HtB), psn has already proven that if you hold Cash you can survive a recession easily (worst of the lot the Banking Crisis which did not affect psn, despite over 50% tradesmen being put out of work)
Housing has been effected more than any other sector due to Brexit, and yet those that are left are booming, while Civils going bust (Carillion), or struggling on massive debt and low margins, gfrd.

Now, if psn returned to Pre-Brexit Per's of about 15 (cur 7.6), then Sp should almost double if No Brexit, and will be worth that even if No Deal Brexit, but will not be reflected by the Sp.
Imho a justifiable Per for psn is > 25 (given accounts) > 3 times cur price. Not going to happen any time soon, but not bovvered when yield is > 12%, and will keep increasing!

I suggest you have a look at tw board where there are far more messages, and possibly invest there (and / or bdev, bwy and rdw as well). Don't know how long psn will take to catch up with tw and bdev, but think it is starting now. For me these are all long term holds, but I move a float between then depending on upcoming RNS's and Divi's.

Welcome to Builders & Bol

Hi LeeRex
I'm just about to pick up 6.5% Spec Divi (12/07/19), on top of 2.2% FinDiv (paid) and 2.2% IntDiv to come = 10.9%.
Not selling so not bovvered what Sp is.
There should be a calc (relating Eps, Margin, Divis, Cash...) that produces a justifiable Per from which you can calc the true value of the share. If that was done you will see that builders are massively undervalued in comparison to all other companies. Value will be realised eventually (leading to Sp of >300), but no idea when.
This is why I only invest in builders (and nano ?!). Can't go bust (cos of cash) and even if a recession tomorrow, no effect (cos of cash and just lay off subbies).
BoL

Hi BBD
Any company valued at £28m when Ip alone probably worth at least is 4* that looks like a bargain to me, besides +ve Edison analysis. No doubt they will be bought by some foreign Coy, like all our best Coys always are.
Just hope it is at a decent price (150 will do!)
BoL

hi xbb
Thanks for the correction. Still think Chinese will be interested.
BoL

Hi BtB
750 patents including mass production techniques and superior quality control make me think Ip worth at least £200m = about 60 pps. On top of that any buyer will have to pay a premium, and could be a bidding war on the way.
On the other hand Cd free dots could be too expensive to make and patents of no value.
So my guess is nano worth anything from nothing to 500 - not very useful!
I remain optimistic and have topped up. Interesting to compare with SoftBank's T/O of Arm (now sold off to Chinese, who will be watching closely no doubt).
BoL

Hi cm45
The system is bust! Probably worst possible case is Corbyn getting in, but I think there will be some sort of Alliance between Brexit party and Conservatives or Labour, Lib Dems and Greens. If Lab/Lib/Greens get in Libs will stop Coryn and Greens doing anything too daft, and we muddle on.
Don't think much will change but what is more important to me is that Builders will remain massively undervalued, so quite happy holding and picking up Divis.
BoL

Hi Bamps
In all cases (except Banking crisis) interest rates went up, causing builders recession. If you ignore banking crisis the last slump was 28 years ago - previously about a 10 year cycle. Don't think you can call it cyclical if cycle 30 Years.
Still think its due to Govt mismanagement - particularly the skills shortage.
Averaged down on nano - at this price definitely a T/O target.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Can you remember the dates of the 4 recessions, which I suspect will coincide with interest rate increases. Assuming no great increase in interest rates and no more banking crises I see no reason for good times to end soon.
This is unfortunate for the younger generations cos it means they will remain in debt most of their lives - nothing wrong with high interest rates (if your wages keep pace) cos repayments fixed. Think we had a mortgage of £12k.
I retired 20 years ago earning £1k per week, not a bad wage even now, cos inflation so low.
Critical factors for Builders recession are decreasing EPS growth (happening now), decreasing Margins, Cash held and Divis (none of which happening now). EPS still growing but not as fast cos Builders are all flat out and due to skills shortage.
Builders issues (now and in the past) are entirely due to Govt mismanagement and if I was young I would emigrate rather than accepting being in debt for the rest of my life.
BoL

Hi Bamps
As I have said I don't think housing is cyclical any more. The cycle was based on interest rates, but these are now low and set to stay low. Last drop due to Banks which should not happen again. However, it does justify the massive cash pile they hold, so they are prepared for next slump (if it happens).
When I worked for Geo Wimpey the Sales dept calcd the price they could sell the houses for by studying sell prices for similar houses (new and existing) in the area. I see no reason this should change and is independent of HtB, so I still think HtB has almost no effect on new house sales.
Think rent before buying is a good idea, and hope tw also adopt psn idea of buyers retention until snagging completed.
BoL

Hi BtB
Good Post.
My only issues are Business managers could decrease costs by a small % age, top level Scientists could decrease costs by a significant amount (in process?)
IP is almost impossible to value, arm bought (a bust) company just to avoid IP issues and law suits (from US Slime) for £100 m. I regard nano Ip value as much > £100 m, ie > 5* Cur MrktCap.
Daft thing is everyone knew Apple was the partner yet not built into the Sp - now Apple not the partner Sp drops by huge amount. Nano was cheap at £100 m.
Nobody would try to buy Nano when Apple was there but now a bargain - Samsung in particular will be interested, besides China (who bought leading Tech Coy arm).
Not selling nothing and maybe buying more later today.
Think things will move quickly now.
BoL

Hi Sip
Deutsche Bank, Edison and another? say it is Apple. Common knowledge, and if not who else could it be? This is typical of Apple's technique of forming partnerships without buying their suppliers, so they can pick and choose without commitment.
Worst possible case they are changing allegiance, but I do not believe that.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Just noticed you (and everyone else) have a price of 8.5 - my price 8.1 from new Beta Website.
Not that it matters much.
BoL

Hi Tom
Nice to see you have so much respect and support on this board.
I suggested on nano board the reason for end of contract is no more than it has been completed, and another is probably being written. If so I expect nano coud jump back to 50-60 on being announced. 6 to 7 bagger in weeks?
Must be worth a small gamble.
BoL

As an optimist I am hoping no extension to contract means just that (since it has been completed). If that is the case a new contract is probably under negotiation, but company law means they had to announce end of the contract. If so never a better buying opportunity
Simply cannot believe Apple would walk away from something so fundamental to their plans.
Should be sorted soon - one way or another - and interesting to see who was selling late on Thursday!

Hi Tom
Lost a lot on Nano today but don't forget, Nano MrktCap now £21m @ 8.7 - IP probably worth over £100m, so a great buying opportunity. Personally, I don't like averaging down, but tempted.
Don't think gloating in your nature, so BoL and have a think about getting in at a bargain price.

Hi Krusty
There have been suggestions that that is what tw should do (while Sp cheap), but I agree with you - Buy back by bkg not very popular, and nothing stronger than Cash in a downturn, which is how psn and bwy survived the banking crisis with almost no effect on them, while half or more of the workforce lost their jobs.
Not that I am expecting a downturn, and I think my point here has been proven - Builders fortunes based on supply / demand, Civils based on Brexit uncertainty. Builders have out performed Civils, exemplified by gfrd trying to take over bvs about 2 years ago, now bvs trying to take over gfrd!
Now Rory Stewart (Remainer) out of the race, Builders will probably drop later today (he should join Lib Dems now). The only choice left now is No Deal Brexit or No Brexit. Too much lying, cheating and back stabbing in Politics (but is that new?)
Not that it matters to builders!
BoL

Hi Richy
That is based on last Year + 364 days (and what Diary Link for above - but not filled in). Usually a table of upcoming dates in Int and or Fin Results.
BoL

Think Pre Interim results due 4th, Int Res 20/08/19.