Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Billy
You completely miss the point. The banking crisis caused builders slump cos they wouldn't lend money for mortgages. This led to devaluation of land prices so land bank had to be recalcd creating massive losses.
The only solution (to avoid a 20's 30's depression) was to bail out the Banks (not Builders) which Gordon Brown did.
Low Interest rates, QE a result of banking crisis. HtB, FLS meaningless (don't affect supply / demand).
The latest fall in Sp is due to Brexit uncertainty and has not effected builders profits. This is not chicken and egg, Banking crisis caused the lot (besides Brexit fiasco).
Agree Govt is incompetent and corrupt, but name one that isn't, and still no numbers.
BoL

Hi Tom
Don't know where Politics is going now - when I heard TM deal I thought it boosted remain in (via Ref) and no chance of No Deal Brexit, but looks like it will be rejected. Think it is boiling down to MP's deciding No Brexit or No Deal Brexit, or new Ref on same question.
Hope this amounts to the same thing, Remain In, but who knows with Boris and Corbyn?
Expect builders Sp to remain volatile in short term, but still hoping for tw 214 before XDivDt (simply based on Divi).
Current Plan is to sell £13k in tw (@ minimum 210) transfer to Isa and buy rest of Isa after XDivDt. If tw doesn't reach 210, I will hold for Divi and wait for Sp to recover before Isa.
Planning move to Alaska!
BoL

Hi driftking
Probably won't reply on last thread unless I get a decent answer.
It would seem like a good idea for psn to buy back shares (at such a low price), and in theory that should drive the price up. Not entirely convinced this works - bkgh have been doing this for years. The question is what would their Sp be now if they hadn't? Personally I like to see a company holding cash as a cushion against any downturn. This is why psn survived the banking crisis better than any other builder.
BoL

Hi Billy
How does 0.5% IR, QE, funding? and HtB constitute a bailout? How have peoples wages, savings and taxes been affected by Govt policy (besides a possible miniscule increase in Tax to cover HtB)? Which house builders fund the torys and how much?
Like Exstatex, no facts nor numbers, so nothing to discuss. At least your last statement was qualified by "IMHO". How do you feel about all the builders put out of work cos of Banking crisis, causing the housing and skills shortage.
There has been no coherent Govt policy re Builders for years (hence apprenticeships, builders subcontracting almost everything) to avoid Govt whims. Last time I worked in Building was 1980 - made redundant after MT increased interest rates.
Builders have learnt how to survive despite Govt.
BoL

Hi KD
Think it is excellent time to get in - in short term expect a rise cos TM's proposal, and now No Brexit looming larger than ever - longer term however Brexit sorted I think builders will rise to pre Brexit level Per's (which infers about 50% increase). If No Brexit shouldn't take long, if No Deal Brexit it will take far longer.
BoL

Hi Sunset
From my graphs bdev performing best this year. Given 04/01/19 = 100 then Rel Sp:
bdev 129.5, tw 127.1, rdw 114.4, bwy 113.2 and psn 105.5.
My oldest graph, 04/01/13 = 100 then:
rdw 336.1, bwy 273.4, bdev 272.1, psn 264.6, and tw 241.4.
Since recent bad publicity psn about 25% behind bdev and tw (infers best value).
I hold a base value in the above 5 and move a float between them (depending on RNS's and Divis). At the moment float in psn and tw for Divis.
No Favourites! BoL

Hi TMT
Imagine you're having a discussion with Exstatex - the rest of us have filtered him.
Only company to be bailed out was tw (by its own shareholders - not Govt). Govt quite happy to let all the builders go bust and many did, hence skills and housing shortage now.
Of the big companies psn and bwy handled the Banking Crisis easily cos they had cash so could just lay off the subcontractors. Noticeable now that bdev and tw Per far higher than the rest cos they have cash now (so can't go bust). Psn has far more cash and if it wasn't for -ve publicity recently would be over 15% higher than it is now.
Psn will eventually regain that 15%, so should be about 2450 now, but no idea how long it will take the market to change it's attitude (despite change in management).
I don't Analyse make up of demand (break up marriages, immigration, HtB), but whatever the number is of people looking for accommodation, I think it should be fairly easy to calculate (Last year + N%) If you don't reach that level the problem will gradually get worse.
Last point, don't think HtB makes any difference to new house sales (cos it doesn't effect demand), if dropped only difference it will make is far fewer 1st time buyers buy new homes, so more existing homeowners will buy them.
Nice Divi coming (110 pps, 13/06/19), but probably too short a time after tw Sp Divi (10.7pps, 06/06/19) to be able to move from 1 to the other.
BoL

Hi Troubles
All very depressing right now, reflected by Sp movement. Johnson favourite which is not a good sign but better than Gove and don't even mention Brokensh*t - but imagine that was just a wind up!
Psn down about £1 Bn cos of him.
The madness is the Govt is entirely responsible for the shortage of housing, and now fighting Builders rather than trying to create a plan to fix the issue.
Still hoping things will improve for tw for next 2 weeks.
BoL

Hi My2P
I thought I made it clear why I think there is no risk (at least in Short term) to Builders (other than a Corbyn Govt).
To invest in value is low risk cos value will eventually be realised. 10 years ago tw had almost no value cos of massive debts (and interest payments) when Banks weren't lending money, so they couldn't sell anything. Completely different now.
There is a saying that the market is always correct, but I used to invest in Tech Stocks (during the Boom) slowly got out during Tech Stock Bust, 10 Years later got back into investing and no Tech Stocks left. All been bought by foreign competition, who realised the market had undervalued our Tech Stocks (proving our Market was wrong).
Psn Sp now 2117, I calc True value around 4500 which means no sleepless nights!
BoL

Hi Troubles
Builders PPI? Tw set aside £3 Mn to cover the risk = approx 0.05% their value (raid the petty cash!)
BoL

Hi TMT
I agree Corbyn is the big risk, but cannot see him getting in.
No need to worry until Cons elect a new leader. Johnson, Gove? Sell the lot and migrate!
Also agree Brexit will make hardly any difference cos won't change Supply / Demand situation (besides the 200,000 social houses needed).
BoL

Hi Abkaz
Probably most people would agree with you, but I can't see anything coming close to builders in terms of value.
By spreading the risk you are certainly safer, but decrease your potential for profit.
If there was any chance of the big builders going bust, it would be a good idea to spread the risk, but absolutely no chance of that when > £1 Bn cash in the Bank (bdev and tw not far behind).
Microsoft would probably have been bought out by IBM if Bill Gates diversified his portfolio.
BoL

ps
Margin 30% for psn (tw 20%).

Hi TMT
I only invest in 6 Companies (5 builders and nano), so most in builders.
This is because imho Bldrs are massively undervalued cos of Brexit. If you compare Pre Brexit Per's to current Per's they are about 50% lower than they were (infers a 50% Sp increase when Brexit sorted).
Also since I believe Building are no longer a cyclical Industry, their Pre Brexit Per's are also undervalued (which could lead to a further 50% increase). Just look at other companies with a 20% margin - what are their Per's? And then compare Cash Held. Which is the best Value?
Lastly, since -ve publicity psn now more than 15% behind bdev and tw (by relative strength), but a turning point could be happening now, bdev up 3% this week (due to good RNS), psn almost 1% up, tw just over 0.5%, all ahead of rdw and bwy.
Don't know how long it will take for the value to be realised, but about to get 5.98% Divi from tw and another 5.32% Fin Div from psn on top of 5.99% Int Div, so not really too bovvered!
BoL

Hi Opti
Still hoping for 214 (20 * 10.7) before 6th, but that is one helluva rise in 3 weeks!
Already topped up in anticipation. Even if it doesn't reach 214 quite happy picking up 6% Divi.
BoL

Hi Nano
All much more complicated than I thought, but sure Nanoco will be in the picture somewhere in display
BoL

Hi Owls
Tw margin about nil 10 Years ago and have steadily increased to 20% cos demand far > supply.
No Govt (or BofE) can interfere limiting companies margins. About the best they can do is to restrict credit (via BofE) to companies that have massive debt (like Utes), but Builders don't need credit (cos of Cash Held).
As for Brokensh*t stripping psn of HtB, this gives tw and bdev an unfair trading advantage, so could never happen. If it did psn could just stop building houses, return all £1 bn cash to ShareHolders + the rest of their assets and cease trading.
Short Term result, far fewer houses are built increasing margins for tw and bdev to 35% ?
Just don't need these idiots any longer. Corbyn must be new favourite for next PM cos no contender yet until TM goes. Mebbe we're following US again, and time to migrate!
BoL

Hi Troubles
Probably right about Trade War, but don't know how this can effect supply / demand.
About time Trump was impeached, but would his Vice automatically take over.
How can US elect such a great Politician as Obama and replace him with Trump?
BoL

Hi Tom
Expect Sp down due to Brexit delay. Last 3 weeks have been -ve. Think only development has been that chances of No Deal Brexit are almost nil, leaving some sort of Deal or No Brexit. This seems +ve to me so surprised by -ve movement.
BoL

Hi troubles
The only Bank which needed no support was HSBC. I believe this is because they have a different attitude. We will regulate ourselves despite Govts, whereas other Banks took the attitude of taking advantage of Govts to feed their greed. I believe in minimal Govt - only trouble is how many disasters will happen before Builders, Banks … realise it is their own responsibility.
Watching Built from Disaster now. Do regulations make any difference?
BoL