Member Info for Nige_W

Things moving fast now, TM must go soon (which has to be good for builders).
If unable to agree any deal and No Deal rejected, only possibilities are long extension (unacceptable to almost everyone involved) or 2nd referendum (delaying the inevitable by a month or two) or revoke article 50 Now.
I expect a big rise in Tw (on the way to 300, and all other builders), tomorrow, but could be totally wrong again (vote not binding as long as TM is there!)
Total Chaos, is this Government?
Hi Troubles
I always said Brexit is too difficult and most Politicians never wanted it anyway, and now (cos of the skill of TM) their mission is almost accomplished. Very difficult to find Polls on this (but they are now regarded as about as much use as Politicians, and the Media - how will this affect a schoolgirl in Clapham?)
BoL

Hi Bamps
Sorry to hear you were in Hospital, not much fun. At least you can look forward to a full recovery.
House builders are best value on the market by miles.- just by comparing Profit to Mrkt Cap. This is better explained by Per (Share Price to Earning (Profit) per share), at record lows due to Brexit mess. If Per's recover to pre Brexit levels, this infers builders Sp should increase by around 50%. It is no more than a matter of time before this happens (No Deal Brexit - long time, Remain In short time). My target for tw Sp 300.
Anyway, the lower the Sp the higher your yield - good case for LTBH - if you bought tw at 50p your yield about 35% pa!
Compare Britvic or Bp Eps growth with tw, don't think either will have done much better than tw.
Then compare Net Debt / Cash Held and Margins - tw leaves them both for Dead on both counts.
This is why I only invest in builders (and Nanoco).
Wish you a speedy recovery and BoL

Hi CJ
Think next week even more difficult - depends on Politics, but probably nothing much decided. Sentiment will determine the price as chances of options increase / decrease.
BoL

Hi Troubles
I have made many incorrect predictions. I thought yesterdays move by EU was positive (but wrong!) and today TM position is becoming untenable (again positive, but who knows?)
Imho only alternatives are becoming 2nd Ref or revoke article 50, which means only 1 thing.
No Deal tw 150, No Brexit tw on way to 300 - at least 214 by Spec XDivDt..
BoL

Hi WiganW
Agree with that, hopefully make up all losses later today (+ a bit).
Still can't see any solution on the horizon, but think No Deal Brexit won't happen - leaves some sort of Deal or No Brexit.
What a mess!
BoL

Ps
If memory serves 87,000 households affected by fleacehold (which should not be allowed), what % is that?
If that is what led to decrease in Sp's today, yet another overreaction to press and Govt statements, who seem to be in collusion!
BoL

Hi nobodys
Quite agree - Brexit will not affect Supply / Demand (and so builders fortunes).
Just 3 possibilities left:
No Deal Brexit. Can't see this happening - Parlt totally against it - cos worst possible case, Even if it does not affect builders fortunes, it will seriously decrease Builders Sp.
TM deal agreed. Can't see this happening next week, nor after extension until June cos can't see EU agreeing to an extension.. If it happens Sp's will muddle along at this level or gradual increase. Both above cases I will hold builders shares just for Divis.
If both of above rejected only remaining option is No Brexit and despite recent rises in builders Sp, I reckon another 50% + possible to return to pre Brexit levels of Profit to Mrkt Cap % ages (or Per's).
Ship not sinking so I am holding, but could be wrong again.
BoL

Hi Tom
So easy to fix (but needs Govt action - so maybe not!). If Council gave builder planning permission they should be obliged to adopt roads and sewers... Why are freeholders having to pay twice for these services (assuming they are also paying council tax).
BoL

Hi Thinker
Not too sure about the following things, so if anyone knows any better please correct me.
I think tax on Divis already paid before you receive it (at basic rate). if Divi 10 pps you get 10 pps, but tw has to pay you 10 pps and Govt X pps (depending on basic Tax rate). So not really tax free, even in Isa.
Another reason to hold growth shares in Isa, Income shares in Trade account.
I don't think you have to Sell shares, wait for money to clear then transfer to Isa account, and buy Back.
Think you can bed and breakfast them? (sell n shares and buy back same number in Isa) automatically. Could depend on your broker, but that is what I will try to do this year.
Future of Sp entirely dependent on Politics, tw should increase to at least 214 just before Spec XDivDt when 10.7 Divi is 5% of Sp.
My idea
If No Deal Brexit sell before XDivDt - long time for recovery.
If No Brexit hold for Divi - recovery shouldn't take long.
If extended Brexit date sell half before, rest after, but as you say depends on buy in price.
BoL

Hi Mushroom
Not as easy as it might seem, cos some XDivDt's too close to simply move between them. Also if you use a Divi pot you could have a Brokensh*t moment at any time, and lose around 15% (relatively) overnight.
Think I'm going back to my old system of trying to anticipate good RNS's (investing before release and selling later), but maybe delaying a sell or buying earlier than planned to pick up Divi.
BoL

Hi Owls
Thanks for your Analysis. Just haven't had time to look at this in detail yet - still fixing my system.
What happens if you ignore Divis < 5%? 2016 and 2018 results will be poor cos very -ve sentiment - Brexit.
More or less leaves Psn Int & Fin, tw Spec and bdev Fin for 2017 and 2018.
Reckon psn Int Div best bet cos Fin Div follows quite shortly, but all messed up by Brokensh*t now.
I must say not too convinced myself.
BoL

Hi Owls
I will reply in detail later, but the main point is recovery time (to Pre XDivDt max). If short grab Divi else sell before XDivDt. Must admit chase Divis, or work on RNS's could all add up to Nil (makes no difference).
Could you recalc selling 4 weeks after XDivDt (which I reckon is normal recovery time, but depending on Market sentiment).
Anyway, all depends on Politics now, Calcs hardly matter!
BoL

Hi CJ
Don't expect anything much to be settled next week (apart from TM deal being rejected again), can hardly expect EU to approve / reject Extension by then, so generally a small increase based on +ve sentiment:
Tw 190, bdev 625 and psn 2400.
My system doesn't predict short term prices, nor the results of Brexit mess the following week, so just guesses.
BoL

Hi MK
I like to explain my reasoning, my last post is no more than a statement of no value,
Look at recent surges of Sp pre XDivDt - usually Sp becomes a bit more than 20* Divi, unless -ve sentiment when investors anticipate longer recovery time (and not prepared to wait).
I thought it was a nice solution to base tw investment strategy on bdev performance (for Spec Div).
Last point, Divis really only worth chasing when Sp undervalued, and if recovery since New Year continues, the timing of Buys / Sells probably more important (based on RNS's), but they all pretty much reflect each other so might not make any difference.

Given the reasoning you can make your own choice. Sp might go up or down, and just said it might be a good idea to invest before RNS's (or not!)

Need to top up my tw float from rdw float (beginning of May) and psn (when they recover a bit).

Hope this makes sense and BoL

Try again
If Bdev price going up before tw Spec XDivDt, hold for Divi else sell.
Sp should become 20 * Divi or Divi will represent 5% of Sp just before XDivDt.

You need a helluva crystal ball to see how politics will affect Sp now!
BoL

Hi Mushroom
Welcome to Tw
Fin XDivDt 04/04/19, 3.8 pps = 2.07% - won't have nuch effect on Sp - Hold for Divi and Spec.
Sp XDivDt 30/05/19, 10.7 pps = 6.52%.
If market sentiment good before XDivDt recovery time after Divi probably short, else could take some time.
According to my 20* rule Sp should increase to 20 * 10.7 = 214 before XDivDt, but this does not indicate +ve sentiment - just people buying the Divi, so determine sentiment by inc / dec of bdev Sp for about 4 prev weeks. If good hold for Spec, else sell before XDivDt, or sell half (hedging the bet).
This applies to normal times but really anything could happen right now.
BoL

Hi Sunset
No shares in anything like that - only Ftse.
Only mention it as a concept, maybe replace some glass with plastic or whatever.
Have all builders given up on timber frames? They were more expensive than bricks and mortar but decrease in build time (hence cash flow) justified them. 1 week build time must seem very attractive. (and address shortage)
BoL

Thanks Davielad
All Imho of course, and you could well be right.
Also I think whatever form Brexit takes it will have very little effect on Builders fortunes (based on Supply / Demand which basically won't change).
The one big difference is that recovery to pre Brexit levels (of Per and so Sp) will be far faster if we Remain In as opposed to leaving. Despite huge rises in price still think builders undervalued by 50% +, and with current Divis worth holding just for that.
Don't like the idea of chasing Divis much but reckon I can make at least 12% pa on that alone (so any increase in Sp is a bonus, 50% ?)
BoL

Hi Sunset
Prefabs have changed a lot over the years and the issues you mention do not apply nowadays.
The example below will be very expensive but the same principles could be used for affordable housing.
https://www.huf-haus.com/en-uk
BoL

Hi Bamps and Tom
Just sent a message on bdev Board - not copying here cos not all relevant - extolling Prefabs.
Still think that is the future - HufHaus.
The Site Manager is absolutely crucial to Build Quality, Imho but I'm miles out of date.
BoL