Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Johnson
Don't think it was Social Housing but (more) affordable housing. No sign of special provisions in accounts.
BoL

Hi Pokerock
Sill in bdev!
Builders price drop due to Brexit has been massive, so some time ago I calcd what they would be if this never happened (from Per's). Then:
bdev 945 = 60.2% more than cur Sp
rdw 990 = 63.4%
bwy 5352 = 79.4%
psn 3735 = 52.7%
tw 300 = 73.4%
Note
We might not leave EU in which case those prices justifiable when remain is declared.
Imho Brexit will make no difference to Supply / Demand for houses so above prices justifiable now (but market does not agree!)
BoL

Hi Johnson
Don't know how Govt is going to build the Social Housing. Major builders flat out with private housing (with margins from 20 to 30%), why divert resources to Social housing if margins less?
Civils builder gfrd is trying to increase house building (so moving resources from Civils) cos of margins, almost no margin in Civils.
BoL

Hi Sunset
Govt cannot possibly single out psn as a target, just a publicity stunt by a Minister. Besides psn still hold bdev, tw, bwy and rdw.
BoL

Hi Sunset
If bdev, psn & tw Sp 100 on 04/01/13 (Rel Price) then Sp 22/02/19 255, 228 and 308.
Ceo did not make terms of his bonus - imposed on him by Directors, who resigned.
psn no worse than rest in build quality, better than most (particularly bvs).
Imho best building company, no issues in last building disaster cos they had no debt (unlike bdev and tw, who almost went bust).
BoL

Hi Johnson
I disagree with almost everything in that article, except supply not meeting demand for several years, which infers continued growth, increasing Margins and Divis, as proved by their last 10 years performance.
Brexit and HTB will have almost no effect on Supply / Demand for houses, so almost no effect on builders fortunes. This is besides the 200,000 social houses needed and the net 300,000 Immigrants coming to our Country every year, who need somewhere to sleep.
The Govt should be working with Builders to resolve these issues - not against them (bearing in mind they created the problem anyway).
Will psn beat £1,000 Mn profit tomorrow - think if they do we should get a FinDiv > 110 (promised) and > 125 (IntDiv).
BoL

Hi JohnJohn
Brokenshire should be put in prison for that interview - manipulating the market. TM in control anyway.
Lease hold and building quality History now. Levin enquiry was meant to sort out all Bldrs suspect methods - what happened to that?
Besides the increasing shortfall of new houses being built, who is going to build the 200,000 social houses now needed?
BoL

Hi all
I thought TM was in control of Building now, but Minister has managed to manipulate psn Sp down over 6%, just before results. I wonder how many shares he (and friends and family bought !?)
This statement should be retracted, particularly cos it names a particular company, and would be illegal if he was not a Politician.
HTB guaranteed until 2021, not that it makes any difference to new house sales anyway, so buying opportunity.
Just can't believe how much the market overreacts to meaningless news.
BoL

hi Bamps
Type of bldg. (house / bungalow) dependent on Council planning permission.
I think the article should have no effect (but could be wrong again) cos leasehold, build quality is history, and is psn doing anything different re HTB to other builders? Imho just a politician seeking publicity. Just picked on psn cos of CEO bonus.
Build quality used to be responsibility of Site Agent / Bldg Inspectors (C of W) but miles out of date. Don't think psn had any issues there (unlike bvs).
BoL

Hi NigWit
Completely agree with you about timing in HiTec coys. Takes years to get into production (hence profits). Probably a wise Analyst has broken development into phases. Speculation might work with mining, oil exploration... cos will be proved right / wrong in a short time (not years!)
Lost money on nano to begin with, but well up now (unlike agma). Everything looks good now, tipped all over the place, needs no more money, on verge of profits and massive growth potential.
If based in Silicon Valley Sp probably would never have dropped below 100 and could be 150 now (pure speculation - just making the point that we seem unable to support our great inventors).
BoL

Hi Bamps
Almost sure you could find psn IntXDivDt on IntRes RNS (21/08/18) and/or PreFin RNS (08/01/19).
In process of color coding dates - ie last year + 364 days (estimate), or as published.
Don't help if you read the wrong column tho.
BoL

Hi Bamps
IntXDivDt Last year 08/03/18, infers 07/03/19 this year. See:
http://upcomingdividends.co.uk/
No mention here on psn critical dates, so provisional.
My apologies 28/03/19 is payment date - can't read my own charts.
BoL

Hi WiganW
Imho HTB does not make much difference to new house sales, cos the market remains the same. If 50% of new house sales are to 1st time buyers and this decreases to 25%, then existing property owners will increase from 50% to 75%.
Govt could encourage OAP's to buy new small bungalows, by some incentive scheme, but the same applies - just another brick in the wall.
Could have a massive effect, in which case I don't understand the market at all, and will create another buying opportunity.
BoL

ps
Over 50% of Float in psn right now (but think no worries cos IntDiv alone justifies current price).
Most of rest Float in rdw who just announced a spec payment to holders (no Dates mentioned) 30pps - just over 5%, so holding on to them until XDivDt known. Also bought a few more tw before FinRes.

Hi Bamps
I also topped up float in psn (from bdev) for FinRes (when they will confirm IntDiv of 125 = 5.06% and announce FinDiv, which I expect to be 125+ = >10%).
Should take almost no time for Sp to recover after IntDiv (XDivDt 28/03/19), cos FinDiv (XDivDt 13/06/19) means most people will hold for that. Tw Spec XDivDt (30/05/19) is 6.52%, but no plans yet of how to play it - too much politics in the way.
Just hope for good FinRes (In line with or better) should see a good rise in Sp (like bdev).
BoL

Hi Mushroom
Good observation - synchronised swimmers. I plot relative strength and noticed when Sp going south they tend to converge (which infers panic selling), while they diverge more when sp increasing. Big 3 (psn tw and bdev) reflect each other quite closely (despite bdev Ye June, psn and tw Dec).
Surge in prices due to Bank of America / Merrill Lynch revaluation of Bldrs in Dec so excellent timing - personally I'm surprised it made so much difference. Think market is beginning to realise Builder success dependent on Suppy / Demand (and not National growth nor Brexit).
My other 2 builders, bwy and rdw, are less affected by Brexit, but have much lower Per's (better value?), probably because they pay less in Divi's and hold far less cash.
Still losing on tw (av price 180 = - 7.6%), but making on all the others.
Best success nano (Not Aim) over 29% up, worth looking at nano board here.
BoL

Hi LeeRex
Another one bites the dust (courtesy Brexit), but Swindon was one of the richest towns in the country and besides Honda, main HQ of Nationwide BSoc and WH Smiths. Bad news for Swindon but not a disaster like loss of industry in the North. Also still in commuter belt for London so any decrease in house prices could be opportunity for commuters.
Parlt must revoke Article 50.
Incidentally tw, bdev and psn all up 15% to 20% since new year - long may it continue, but long way to go.
BoL

Since BofA ML revaluation of National Builders at beginning of year (leading to a 15 to 20% increase in Sp price for psn bdev, tw and rdw), while bwy only increased by 5% so their relative strength over 10% down compared to the others.
Either they are undervalued now or something is wrong.
Their PreInt (07/02/19) were excellent and if their IntRes (19/03/19) reflect that I expect a Sp surge (like Bdev) will follow.
The only reason I can see for low price of bwy is that they still have some net debt (while top performers psn bdev and tw have loads of cash), which the Market (unjustifiably) prefers (as proved by lower Per's of bwy and rdw). Better to invest profit for further growth rather than just sitting on it.

Hi Bamps
Nice Plan.
Psn XDivDt 07/03/19, 125 pps = 5.2% (@ Cur Sp), Sell / Buy tw before FinDiv XDivDt 04/04/19, 3.8 pps = 2.3% (should be possible cos little drop in psn Sp after XDivDt - cos Fin Div to follow), Hold tw for Spec Div 30/05/19, 10.7 pps = 6.5. Tot Divi 14.0%.
Then Sell / Buy psn before FinDiv 13/06/19, 110 pps = 4.6%, if tw sp recovered after XDivDt. Then Tot = 18.6%.

Psn Fin Div not fixed until FinRes 26/02/19 and will probably be >= 125 (or 5.2% +, so 19.2% +).
Recovery time after XDivDt's will depend on Political situation then - if No Deal Brexit last move might not be possible.

Then Plan a move to bdev before 10/10/19, 35.2 pps = 6.2%. Also watch rdw FinDiv 19/09/19 about 3.3% and bwy FinDiv 28/11/19 about 3.4% (dates, Divis from last year).

As I have said before I don't believe Sp's can drop much more simply because of Divis.
BoL

Hi Johnson
According to my system psn FinRes 26/02/19, tw 27/02/19 (don't know if correct - last Year + 364 days!)
If In line with expectations (as predicted by PreFin), I expect them both to surge (as bdev did with PreInt, IntRes).
This will prove, yet again, that Builders / Brokers forecasts are correct and the market has got it all wrong!
Of course Politics could screw everything up again, but don't expect much happening before FinRes.
Hi WigaW
With Divis at current levels I don't think Sp can drop much (even if No Deal Brexit), if they do it is a buying opportunity, ie Sp 150 then Yield > 11%, then who cares what the Sp is, Tw, psn and bdev can't go bust cos of the cash they hold.
Psn Int XDivDt, 07/03/19 125 = 5.2% @ Cur Sp,Tw Spec XDivDt, 10/07/19 10.7 = 6.5%, psn Fin XDivDt, 13/06/19 110 = 4.6% (but probably Divi >= 125 - announced with FinRes 26/02/19) and bdev Fin XDivDt ,10/10/19 35.2 = 6.2% (to be confirmed 04/09/19).
Not including tw Int Div, Fin Div nor bdev IntDiv. Time to chase Divis?
BoL