Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Tom
Worst possible case is No Deal Brexit which might look to be the case for a short time, but don't believe it will happen.
If NDB Sp could fall to 140 until 2nd Ref called. Only way out of this mess Imho, but no crystal ball so not predicting nothing.
BoL

Hi Troubles.
Tuesday's vote probably having an effect. Why buy today if a chance of big drop tomorrow?
Then back to business as usual on the way to 300. Brexit issue might not be sorted but hopefully soon.
Think we hit the low point the day I sold last Float 27/12/18 (as you predicted). Need a new crystal ball - binned last one.
Comparatively heavy trading in nano suggests something happening there.
BoL

Hi Tom
Congrats on GGP but it is an Aim (so very risky - not my thing).
Very happy with house builders - did you ever diversify within sector (psn, bdev, bwy and rdw?) All around 100% potential but time dependent on Brexit method (or not!)
Nano doing well also, which I think has long term potential.
BoL

Hi wellwell
Congrats, think 8 recomendations proves your point.
BoL

Hi BtB
Agree it was a silly comparison, but I do think Edison are probably closer to the mark with £6.7Mn as opposed to your less than £3.5Mn.
Anyway, I think the last payment was no more than the last of the first stage (construction), now continuing into stage 2 (preproduction?)
My point is if they are backed by Apple it doesn't matter if they lose £20Mn this year. If Apple see nano as essential to their future plans they will sort it, and the same applies to Plessey (a private Limited company - owned entirely by Directors, with no IPO to raise funds cos Deutshe Bank quite happy to lend them £Mns - wonder why?)
Now, if you think you know better than Edison, Deutsche Bank and Apple, I think you must have been a Banker for too long! With that sort of backing, short term finances mean nothing.
I mean no offence, and the opposite end of the spectrum is house builders (which I am heavily invested in) and I think would suit you better (massive amount of Cash and Divis, huge Margins and continual Growth).
BoL

Greggs make sandwiches Mrkt Cap £1,500 Mn. No promise of sales for next year (not one sarni) so must be worthless now!

Hi Tom
Think your comment regarding
http://poundf.co.uk/taylor-wimpey-share-price-forecast
sums it up "totally changed from last... " inferring last was totally wrong!
Same applies to brokers who (maimly) have been predicting doom and gloom for builders and have also been proved wrong. Nothing much has changed - builders growth has been steady for last 10 years (justifying Overperform?).
Think it was callisto who used the phrase "so called guru's".
Incidentally, big freeze, 6 inches snow and blizzards forecast in a weeks time. Far better chance of that than
brokers being right. (Found the right butterfly in the Amazon?)
BoL and have a great w/e

Hi Tom
Don't read Brokers reports cos Guru's consistently wrong. How can you upgrade to neutral (from what?) when all builders have been growing consistently since 2008, This infers whatever they said before was wrong, like my main hate Liberum., Even they are supporting builders now (after also predicting doom and gloom for years).
Their misconceived projections have a big effect on Sp which means I will have to watch them to make sense of my graphs, which is why I appreciate you reporting it.
Have to build it into my Diary. There are too many jumps and slumps, which could be explained by Brokers reports. Only issue is you know (roughly) when RNS's will be released, while their Pearls of wisdom can be released at any time.
Whether they are right or wrong doesn't matter much (apart from affecting Sp) cos Builders fundamentals are excellent, and I see no reason why this should change. Tw worth 300 now! Hoping for big drop on Tuesday to reinvest my last Sell (but will definitely lose money on that).
Again I say thanks for the report and no criticism of you. BoL

Hi Tom
You Quote "Homebuilders, among the most sensitive to Brexit developments" - don't know where from, but this is just not true as proved by in line with expectations statement, They have lived thru recession, austerity and Brexit with no affect on their continued growth.
Makes last statement rather meaningless, but I think we have no idea what will happen Tuesday - unless BAML know something we don't.
Nice to see upgrade though even is the Guru's are consistently wrong.
BoL

Gone very quiet on this board - infer everyone's sold out or on a mission.
Hoping for resumption of Sp growth tomorrow and next week (Tuesday ?)
BoL

Thanks for article Pickles
I think the slowdown today is no more than profit taking after yesterday - not often builders increase so much in 1 day.
The market was expecting much worse results than those published - hence big increase in Sp when in line with expectations.
If this is confirmed by bdev and psn, it proves that builders fortunes dependent on supply / demand, not Brexit Corbyn.
Issues identified by the article.
Brexit affecting sales - will Brexit affect Supply / Demand?
Economic Slow down - Ditto.
End of Help to Buy. Fewer 1st time buyers buy new homes but more home owners buy them.
Big increase in Interest rates. Not a Govt tool anymore - set by BofE so no chance.
Could stop special Divi but giving away £600 Mn of £644 Mn so making another £44 Mn cash on top of profits.
Even if sales fall a little they could start building the 200,000 Social houses now needed!
As I said a fair price for tw is 300 now, how long it takes to get there depends on the market / politics, but I am sure it will get there (eventually).
BoL

Hi Max
There is no doubt graphene is a wonder material, and I invested in agma some time ago and lost a little money. Still have a few shares (0.4% Port - loss 76%), which I will hold cos they could be bought for their IP.
The trouble is Govt's (let alone Big Coys) are researching this big time so the likes of agma will find it difficult to compete.
Nano have so many people in R&D specialising in this - never know they might figure our how to mass produce large sheets of it, but obviously very difficult. Just needs one person with an inspiration (but probably a Chinaman).
Best of luck with VRS and loads of applications even if it is more expensive than Gold to produce.
I like the direction nano are taking towards sales, at first I was worried about over reliance on the US partner (can we say Apple now?) but now other things seem to be emerging quite quickly, (let alone Graphene).
BoL.

Hi calisto
You Say "I just can't understand why the "market" pays so much attention to the 'gurus" when they have been so consistently wrong." Couldn't agree more.
Some time ago I said either the market or the builders/brokers have got it wrong. Todays forecast "in line with expectations" leading to a 6% + increase in Sp makes me think the market is realising it has got it totally wrong again!
Lots more RNS's to be published in next few months so long may this trend continue.
Makes me think my sell on 29/12/18 was extremely bad timing - No surprise there either.
BoL

Working late again and did these calcs of target prices assuming remain in which I think should be reached quite quickly (maybe 3 to 6 months) after revoking Article 50.
Calc Fri Close Price * Trad PER / Cur PER
psn, 2006 * 15.0 / 7.5 = 4032
bdev 474 * 14.0 / 7.1 = 939
tw 140 * 14.0 / 6.6 = 299
bwy 2620 * 11.0 / 6.0 = 4807
rdw 500 * 11.0 / 6.0 = 920

Note - All numbers from my system which could be out of date - Trad PER 11.0 for bwy and rdw could be a bit low, and Eps from my Calcs, so DYOR.

Hi Owls
In borrowing money to invest I will use a ladder system, only increasing investment when target values reached (1st 15% then 30%...). This does not maximise profits (so I don't expect to make 100%), but is much safer. Then repay all borrowed cash when Targets (almost?) reached, and see what is left. Still need to work out details.
Also, regardless of Brexit, Corbyn... I still think Sp's above are correct - it will just take far longer to be reached, so tempted to use a more cautious system of above anyway.
BoL

Hi Owls
Think we are very close to a turning point (next Tuesday) or already past it. Builders Sp can't keep going down forever and as I have said (given Remain In) I think builders Sp could double. Now they are talking of 200,000 Social houses to be built. Easy to say but who is going to build them?
BoL

Hi Troubles
Think there will be a delay between TM deal being rejected and 2nd referendum being announced, but who knows?
Also think if that is not the low point we have already passed it. Only way things can get worse is if No Deal Brexit accepted and MP's trying to stop that, but again who knows?
BoL

Hi DGR1980
Your Divis/Yield dependent on your average price ie
If Yield is 10% at 142 and your av 72 then your yield is 20%.
Good case for LTBH, or use Last in / First Out method.
Unfortunately my average is 180.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Don't know the odds but think Remain In looking more and more probable now.
If TM Deal rejected (and non negotiable) and No Deal Brexit rejected, what else is there?
Looks like my last Sell 27/12/18 (to Cash Float) could be the low point.
Hoping for a big drop in prices after TM Deal rejected to get that back in.
BoL

Thanks Mark
So the market now thinks it has oversold builders and now adjusting accordingly.
Certainly wasn't expecting this little surge.
MP's trying to stop No Deal Brexit so looks more and more like Remain In to me (with or without 2nd Referendum).
BoL

ps
Sorry - meant bwy and rdw lower Per's