Member Info for Nige_W

Hi RogueRiver
These trades were made earlier in the day and only went thru after hours, Since Sp going up all day these trades at lower price than UT price so went thru as sells, but you can be sure that the total number sold is equal to the total number bought for every trade.
So relax - means nothing at all. Tw going well - up 2.78% this week which is more than any other National builder.
BoL

Hi Mark
Great explanation but I hardly think it is worth looking at, like ordinary trades or volumes. Critical point is shares bought always equals shares sold, just goes thru as a Buy if buyer got his price or Sell if seller got his price. So if you buy at best it will probably go thru as a sell and if you sell at best it will probably go thru as a buy.
BoL

Hi Cjh
I remain optimistic and will just hold for recovery. Divi Float @ 2384, so need that (or more) after XDivDt to sell. Divi Float only 20% Tot Float so not too bovvered.
Once Brokensh*t blows over think Sp will recover 10% = about 2700 - don't know whether to hold for that (or mebbe something between the 2.)
Incidentally, no big drop in price (2468 22/02/19 to 2433 01/03/19) but agree with your point - the rest increased in price by about 8%. Have you decided on a sell price?
BoL

Hi Bamps
Chasing Divis when sentiment is poor (and Sp Low like last year) means big rise in Sp as XDvDt approaches, so sell before XDivDt, cos as long as poor sentiment, Sp will take a long time to recover. My idea that if sentiment good then the opposite should occur (and won't make much out of Pre XDvDt surge anyway).
My system is now telling me to hold float in psn until end of Aug - just varying amounts depending on XDivDt and surges.
No Sell end of May cos Fin XDivDt in June, so hold for that. Same applies to tw Spec just 2 weeks before psn so probably impossible to hit both with the same money.
Great making plans but all depends on Politics right now.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Given TM deal rejected and article 50 revoked before April then tw should be well on the way to 300 not 206 in May.
Of course this is the best possible case, No deal Brexit could be 150, but who knows?
Makes life exciting! Given case 1, I might buy an old Focus 2.5 (Volvo engine) ST3 - massive torque, (like my old Astra 2.0 8v GTE) cos so easy to drive.
BoL

Hi Owls and Bamps
If you buy before XDiDt and sell after XDivDt at the same price then money for nothing, Divi for free (less miniscule dealing charges).
If Sp recovers to pre XDivDt quickly (which I expect for psn cos FinDiv in June so people hold for it). - sell and buy next Divi.
I expect recovery time to be faster than in the past cos sentiment improving. National Builders up by about 27% since New Year, except psn and bwy.
psn lost about 10% cos of Brokensh*t, but expect that will be forgotten soon - so 10% inc in Sp + Divi.
bwy over 10% behind rest despite excellent PreInt results. If bwy Intres (19/03/19) in line with PreInt I expect a 10% surge there also.
Hold or sell before - just said I think due to sentiment, good idea to hold for quick recovery, but that is really no more than a guess, and also due to Sp increase I don't expect such a pre XDivDt surge.
You could also hedge and sell half, I used to be indecisive but not sure now!
BoL

Hi H3RO
Now 11% down. My system says ignore until June, but could well be a good idea to get in before IntRes (19/03/19).
Trouble is I have nothing to sell at the moment.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Psn bouncing back nicely. Up 1.5% while rest almost no change. Still about 6% more to go to be back in the pack.
Good time to buy but I've got too many already.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Still have bvs on watch list - new boss from bkgh if memory serves, but for now don't touch LSE shares until market improves a bit down south. Did very well out of bkgh but don't have any now. Only hold psn, bdev, tw, bwy and rdw.
Quality of psn homes no worse than other big builders.
Will look up sou as well. My plan is to build up growth shares to about 50% total port by investing a little in these small (Aim?) companys and averaging up (ie buying more when target prices reached).
Thanks for Info.
BoL

Hi Bamps
-ve sentiment regards psn can be put down to a handful of people (remuneration committee and Brokensh*t), so can hardly be regarded as important news. Nothing will happen as a result.
I have very similar strategy using nano ( but < 50%, instead of llika, gpp and cerp - will look them up).
Picking up Divis is a bonus to my system, main system is to anticipate surge in Sp due to RNS's (based on 2017 Sp movements cos 2016 and 2018 messed up by Brexit.)
Traditionally, builders do well until end of May but who knows what will happen given Brexit (not that it should make any difference!)
BoL

Hi Bamps
Just checked - you are right psn did drop XDivDt last year (but not much and complete recovery after 4 weeks).
Made same mistake - invested in psn before Brokensh*t interview which I consider has cost psn between almost 8% of their value, but I think this will soon be ignored / forgotten. My average Float price for Divi is 2384 so need to sell for that to pick up Divi for free.
Alternative is to wait for full recovery (putting psn back in line with the rest) which is 2433 + 8% = 2628, or something between the 2.
My Plan says move Divi Float back to bdev (from where it came) and use part to top up tw. More optimistic for tw than bdev in short term (but my system doesn't agree!) Will still have a big float in psn.
BoL

Hi Mushroom, RetdCop.
Must admit it is very tempting to chase Divis when they are so high, and I am doing that also (but only when 4% +).
Great one to start with psn Int XDivDt 07/03/19 (Thursday), 125 = 5.14% @ 2433, cos they hardly drop in price after XDivDt. Most people hold for Fin XDivdt 13/06/19, 110 = 4.52% @ 2433. Tot 9.66% (but my average price 2088, Float 2384). Note also psn down about 6% since Brokensh*t interview which I expect it will recover from soon.
Also 40p divi from rdw (Int + Spec, 10 + 30 ) = 6.29% @ 636 but XDivDt not confirmed for Spec, Int XDivDt also 07/03/19.

In these times of uncertainty nice to pick up Divis, but I also think Sp will recover after Brexit sorted. Best possible case Remain In (ie ignore Brexit) then by basing Sp on profit, tw should be 300 now, in which case a few % Divis don't matter. Timing of Sp surges more important which will probably be based on RNS releases (but they could all move together).

I only invest in National builders (and nano), cos they have the most potential. Even if TM Deal approved or No Deal Brexit I think it will have almost no effect on Builders, but will take far longer for Sp to recover.

Hi Tom
Don't expect you believe 300 possible for tw but I think it will get there within 2-3 moths of Remain In Decision, which I still think (hope!) we are heading for.
BoL

Hi Sunset
Think it is a quirk (fault) of this site. You repeated 1 message 5 times some time ago, and so did someone on Tw.
Bout time they got this place sorted.
BoL

Hi Tom
Think it is a bit like forecasting the weather - the further into the future you go the less accurate the forecast.
In short term these numbers are predicting continued momentum and any sort of development of this implies could be 200+ quite soon.
Don't know why drop after Wed - are you selling then?
Still maintain price could be anywhere between 150 and 300 depending on Brexit result - at least I will be correct and they will be wrong - but neither very useful.
Very pleased, last share, tw in profit now - av price 177 = 2.4% (but Float Av 191).
BoL

Hi Mark
Quite agree.
Imho this is because the -ve sentiment held by the market due to Brexit has been proven to be incorrect. For over 2 and a half years Per's at record lows yet (to the markets surprise), builders results have been consistently in line with their own (and Brokers) expectations. This is the reason of recent Sp surge in Bdev (IntRes) and psn and tw (FinRes) which were no more than in line with expectations yet in each case caused an increase of about 5% (and 2 1/2 % for competitors).
All started with Bank of America / Merrill Lynch statement at start of year.
A chartist said it was bound to happen cos of candlesticks or something (in retrospect).
Brexit (whatever happens) does not affect supply / demand for houses hence builders fortunes.
If you relate profits to sp and ignore Brexit I calculate bdev should be 945 now.
Last point, given Eps growth, Divis, Cash in Bank and Margins, don't think we will ever see a sector more undervalued again, and hopefully the market is beginning to realise this.
BoL

Hi CoolKid
Absolutely agree. Brokensh*t has decreased Sp by over 5%, but this will soon be forgotten.
One thing about psn (being the biggest builder) is that it is more affected by -ve Brexit news than the other Coys, but usually bounces back more quickly. Expect (hope!) this will happen again and psn will quietly regain the 5% over the next few weeks.
BoL

Think it might be going into quiet time (gradual decline) until some more news released.
Just going to hold anyway cos no way of knowing when that news will be released - NigRule 1 when in doubt do nowt..
Possible alternative, take some profit now and jump back in on the news.
Any news re nano and graphene?

Ps
Some timing! (so take no notice of me). Bought a bunch more 18/01/19 and 22/02/19 before FinRes and Int XDivDt, then Brokensh*t sticks his oar in.
Average Float price 2428 so need to wait for that after XDivDt before I can sell, then money (Divi 125 = 5.22%) for nothing.
Average price 2088, so quite happy. Only selling Float and mebbe buy back before Fin XDivDt (13/06/19, 110 = 4.59%). Surprised this was not increased (at least to 125) after profit > £1 Bn.
BoL

Hi Taverham
Completely agree "The less government do the better off we all are".
I have read that 50% of psn homes sold are H2B. Now imagine H2B stopped tomorrow - will psn only build half the number of homes in the next twelve months? All those 1st time buyers will have to buy old houses (which they can better afford), or rent.
In fact the number of people wanting housing remains the same so the market has not changed (and the shortfall remains). Only difference is no 1st time buyers buy new homes, and psn can still sell all they can build.
Don't know what H2B is costing Govt (Us), but that hardly matters either.

A contract is a contract and by law should be followed. If Jeff took it to court he would probably win the case.
Remuneration Directors concerned have all resigned.
BoL

All Bldrs up today (courtesy psn) and about 2.5% for week while psn down about 1.5% for week.
Courtesy Brokensh*t.