Member Info for Nige_W

Just found my old estimates of Sp's
Calc Fri Close Price * Trad PER / Cur PER
psn, 2006 * 15.0 / 7.5 = 4032
bdev 474 * 14.0 / 7.1 = 939
tw 140 * 14.0 / 6.6 = 299
bwy 2620 * 11.0 / 6.0 = 4807
rdw 500 * 11.0 / 6.0 = 920
Should really store these in Notepad so I can easily find them - about 7 pages back on this board.
I said psn worth 3800 but from above over 4000. Still think I am undervaluing bwy and rdw cos numbers out of Date.
If you use a more reasonable per for both say 12.5 then
bwy 2620 * 12.5 / 6.0 = 5458
rdw 500 * 12.5 / 6.0 = 1042
As I said not much between them while Sp's have increased since and not worth double current prices now.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Hope you are right about development of Sp. You mention other matters - don't think anything else matters other than the supply / demand situation. So tw worth 300 now regardless of Brexit, Should reach that not long after article 50 revoked but will take longer if some sort of TM Deal, and longer still if No Deal Brexit.
Incidentally, when I bought last shares I accidentally bought more than the Cash I held (sp going up) - No alarms or claxons, just HSBC portfolio balance said I owe them £370. Credit goes up to 50% Port value.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Still fully invested - just a small modification to plan. Rather than using proceeds of sale (of bwy and tw 27/12/18 - still holding Base Values), I delayed the buy of bdev, rdw and psn until 18/01/19, which was a bad move - sold around low point so don't have as many shares as I would have if I did buy/sell same day.
Hi Bamps
You wouldn't like my Port, only hold 6 shares (5 builders and nano). I think all are totally safe and have huge potential. Best of luck with your companies. Missed out on ggp (Tom's excellent advice) cos Aim and mining which I don't touch (yet!)
BoL

Hi Bamps
Working late as usual. Think I mentioned this before but psn Int Div (XDivDt 07/03/19) is 125 = 5.22% @ Cur Sp of 2395, followed by Fin Div (XDivDt 13/06/19), which I expect to be 125 +, so another 5.22% = 10.44% Yield. A bit better than 1.6% !
What is even more important is that Sp recovery time after Int Div is almost immediate (cos people hold for Fin Div) and recovery after Fin Div doesn't take long.
Dates and Divis to be confirmed on Fin Res 26/02/19.
Note. The Yield is decreasing due to Sp increasing - my av for psn is 1963 = 12.7% Yield. The Sp has increased from 1897 (14/12/18) to 2395 (18/01/19) = 26.3%. Need to get my system up to date, but I thought at the low point all builders were worth about double their current prices, so target price for psn is 2 * 1897 = around 3800.
Don't think there is much to choose between the big Nationals but psn my favourite right now (cos of Divi Dates). Think tw should do well also, and bdev and rdw over next few months All assuming Remain In!
Hi Troubles
I think (hope!) my float system increases profits by up to 20% over LTBH system. The only issue is Politics which override all calculations cos people sell in panic and buy on a whim, without considering fundamentals.
One idea I had was (given previous assumption) is that Sp recovery should be a lot faster than previously with the change of sentiment - infers hold for Divis. Recovery of tw and bdev much slower than the rest, but Divis of bwy and rdw much less, another reason I like psn - quick recovery with big Divis.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Everything fine thanks.
I believe what I said about potential of 266+, but on the proviso that the numbers predicted are achieved.
Clearly Crow2 does not believe them, but as usual makes personal remarks rather than backing up his statement with any facts. He contributes absolutely nothing to this board and does not even acknowledge his sources (God talking to him, or did he just invent it?)
I wonder if he ever read the presentation but suspect if he did he probably wouldn't understand it.
BoL

Hi NigWit
Thanks for the link. Excellent presentation.
If the numbers mentioned are achieved, and given the projected growth, I would suggest a Pe of 18 is very low. Imho Pe could be at least double that, inferring Sp of 266. Let alone Apple effect.
BoL

Hi Troubles
You are probably right but I think this will be no more than face saving and the writing is on the wall.
No idea how long it will take, but almost sure we will Remain In now.
BoL

Hi Tom
Think bounce today due to a big step closer to Remain In. Interesting to know how the odds have changed.
Still believe my calcs are correct 214 min end of May, but if we Remain In simply calc Sp from Pre Brexit Per's (leading to 300). What surprises me is how quickly the market reacts, so I think 300 achievable more quickly than the 3 to 6 months I previously said.
Hope Article 50 is revoked next week by a consensus of party leaders.
BoL

Ps
Not sure of tw Spec XDivDt - last year 31/05/18, infers this year 30/05/19.

From MSN.com News
"British Prime Minister Theresa May on Thursday said it was "impossible" for her to rule out a no-deal Brexit without stopping the process altogether, as she tries to come up with a strategy before exit day on March 29."
So stop the process altogether!!! No need for 2nd Ref, nor delay in organising it - if Corbyn and May agree this, article 50 could be revoked next week.
That is what vast majority of Politicians want anyway, particularly SNP and DUP, Ireland, EU, Japan, Rest of World, Business, Colonies and even Wales now, and the younger generation of English people.
No Brainer - almost there.
Just to annoy Troubles, Hats off to TM for successfully carrying out a very difficult project, and having to lie all the time for the Country's best interests.
Hi Tom
Think minimum 214 guaranteed on Spec XDivDt (20 * 10.7, on 04/04/19), with a potential of 300 then. You will be able to retire again. Of course I could be totally wrong again. Having another drink tonight anyway.
BoL

Hi Mark
Nice to hear current thoughts of "Gurus".
No explanation of previous -ve point of view while Bldrs profits continued to grow.
Cash held by psn £1.3 Bn last year - no doubt £1.5 Bn + this year.
Maybe psn omitted cos return of capital limited to 3 years but (critically) "at least". Thoroughly expect Divis to increase and when FinRes declared (26/02/19), IntDiv = 125 and FinDiv at least 125 - not 110 as declared ie 250+.
Shouldn't be difficult when Margin 30% (from memory tw 20%, bdev 17%).
Don't think the loss of Jeff Fairburn should have much impact on the company (very well organised and efficient) unlike bvs who sacked their Ceo some time ago cos of their (comparative) underperformance. Replaced by a very good Director from bkgh if memory serves, so he might be turning the company round now.
Thanks for the article again and BoL

Posted by MarkBell, by AJ Bell on bdev Board.
Surprised bvs included and not psn.

Hi DGR
I think it is a good idea to increase investment when a level has been reached (using a sort of ladder system suggested by Iceman some time ago). Something like this:
Buy 200 - Init
repeat
If Sp inc 10%, buy another 50
If Sp dec 10%, sell 50
until millions made!
4 Rungs but if trend is upwards should work nicely. Think we are definetly past the low point now, so trend +ve. My target price for tw is 300, if remain in should be reached within 6 months of revoking article 50, whatever else a lot longer.
BoL

Hi BtB
House Builders have been thriving for the last 10 years and no sign of this changing.
If what you said was true Builders would not have record Cash in Bank, record Margins, record Dividends and Yield and continued Eps Growth.
Financial Institutions are moving back to builders as they realise whatever the result of Brexit, it has almost no effect on builders (as proved by the recent results), forcing the Sp up by over 15% since XMas. What foreign Investment?
If we Remain In as looking more and more probable then Per's should return to Pre Brexit levels, resulting in builders Share Prices Doubling.
Builders fortunes determined by Supply / Demand (not Brexit or Politics) and the Housing Crisis is not going away any time soon. The 2008 Banking Crisis (created by the Govt) led to a large %age of Builders leaving the industry and they have not been replaced.
I only invest in nano and 5 National Builders (not LSE) and done very nicely from them. If average price of them on 04/01/13 was 100 then average now is 259 not including (current) 10% + Yield.
BoL and suggest you move to Builders cos nano doesn't suit you.

Hi Tom
If we Remain In and optimism for the sector returns, I think Sp recovery after XDivDt's will be much faster than previous pessimism. This infers hold for Divis rather than selling part or all just before XDivDt (after surge).

First big Divis coming this year are psn Int Div (XDivDt 07/03/19, 125 pps = 5.68% @ 2201) and 20 * 125 = 2500 Target Sp on that date.
Then tw Spec Div (XDivDt 30/05/19, 10.7 pps = 6.90% @ 155) and 20 * 10.7 = 214 Target Sp.
Then psn Fin Div (XDivDt 13/06/19, 110 pps = 5.00% @ 2201) but will probably be increased to at least 125 pps so another 5.68% @ 2201 after Fin Res. As I said Sp hardly decreases after Int Div cos people will hold for Fin Div Good time to get into psn.

Note. These numbers (2500 for psn 07/03/19 and 214 for tw 30/05/19) are based on Divis driving Sp, so absolute minimum prices based on continuing -ve sentiment - Sp's could be far higher on those dates if Remain In.

Investing Held Float tomorrow whatever happens, probably losing more than 13% but I think the longer I delay it the more I will lose. Glass half full? Haven't lost anyting when in cash.

BoL

Hi Tom
TM's big defeat means any sort of deal less probable. Think this increases chances of Remain In, so I think things looking good for tomorrow.
BoL

Hi Tom
Sold a few tw at 134 and a lot of bwy at 2478 (now 2786). System telling me to buy bdev, rdw and psn and hold until May.
Good time to get into psn 6% + IntDiv (XDivDt 06/03/19) after which almost no drop in price cos FinDiv (XDivDt 13/06/19) another 6% +. So Just hold to get around 13% or sell after Int XDivDt and pick up 6% for free.
Dates and Divis to be confirmed on FinRes (26/02/19).
BoL

Hi Tom
Of course it is entirely up to you but .Imho just not worth the risk - as troubles said it is possible Article 50 could be revoked almost immediately - then in deep S##t. You know I sold some shares 27/12/18 anticipating Sp Drop after vote and Sp's have risen by about 13% since then. Going to reinvest after vote whatever happens, but am sure I will be losing money on this. Disaster built into price?
Better to be patient and wait for Sp to double after 2nd Ref or whatever.
BoL

Hi WiganW
Seems to me No chance of TM deal being accepted (suits no one apart from pen pushers), so No Deal Brexit, or Remain In (assuming EU rejects further negotiations and time extension).
If Remain In Builders Sp will quickly recover to Pre Brexit levels (and more or less double) else a long and slow recovery to Pre Brexit levels.
Imho whether we are in EU or not, doesn't make any difference to the value of builders and so Sp,
The worrying thing to me is the "assuming" bit. Needs to be sorted Asap.
BoL

Hi Tom
Got a horrible feeling this is all going to drag on for a while. EU said the deal is non-negotiable - hope they mean it, then if TM deal rejected all that is left is No Deal Brexit, or Remain In.
British politicians are talking about Norway + and time extension, just hope EU reject all this.
BoL