Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Owls
PreFinRes trading statement should be published later today or tomorrow (8th, 9th Jan - last year 10th), so could boost price then. Don't think there is much to choose between the big 5.
Expecting a drop when TM Deal rejected (next Tuesday) so buying opportunity, leading to 2nd referendum and a massive opportunity if we Remain In.
Hi Davie
Builders Sp reflect each other so closely that if tw statement good, it will raise prices of other builders as well, or I think you will find all builders down by about 16% over last 2 months, so as I said little to choose between them. Could argue that bwy and psn are better value cos of lower Per's, but also lower Divis and Cash so maybe not.
BoL
BoL

Hi Owls
Yes, I will. HSBC has a credit facility whereby you can use up to 1/2 your trading account to invest, at very low interest rates. If we remain in Per's should return to Pre Brexit levels which (roughly) means doubling the prices of builders. Never done this before and can hardly see any circumstance when I ever will again.
Just too good an opportunity to miss.
BoL

Hi Mark
For the first time I hold a small cash reserve in anticipation of TM deal being rejected and now everything is going up!
Good time for builders (until end of May) so looks like I could have got my timing completely wrong again.
Just browsed an article on Bitcoin, Bill Gates and Richard Branson browsing media to determine investment strategy. Could make a big difference in a few years time.
Loads of RNS's, results to be published, maybe showing builders success based on Supply / Demand - not Brexit, Corbyn, Trade Wars...
Fwiw My guess is TM Deal rejected (causing slump in price - buy with held float), 2nd referendum called for May and Remain In (use HSBC credit to invest in builders).
BoL

Hi Strictly
First of all I apologise for not replying for so long.
Been very busy adjusting my system to handle the current disasters.
Tax Man - obviously I should check facts before saying something, but doesn't change the idea.
Still in psn, bdev, tw, bwy and rdw. In retrospect I should have reduced holdings at the beginning of the year. Got a little money out now in anticipation of Govt rejecting TM deal next Tuesday (I think (creating new slump in prices).
If (as I believe) builders performance based on supply/demand (and not Brexit!), builders should continue to do well until building crisis is resolved (10 years or more).
Had a look at tef and not overly impressed. Aim and hit big time 15/10/18 (what happened then?)
Imho Best value in big builders based simply on Per's, rdw and bwy best, but really little to choose between them.
Anyway with Yield approaching 13% for psn, bdev and tw, it hardly matters what the Sp is.
As you know my system is based on moving a float between builders based on RNS dates. I have now included XDivDt's, and doesn't seem to improve things much!
Just one exception psn. Int XDivDt 07/03/19 and Fin XDivDt 13/06/19, so not separated much. The market buys for Int and holds for Fin.
Never known such a difference between the Market and Builders / Brokers forecasts.
When the market panics, they seem to sell out of builders equally (regardless of fundamentals and performance), so further opportunities.
Best of Luck and again I apologise for not replying sooner.

Hi RetddB
You make some interesting points. I don't believe Corbyn would attempt to Nationalise builders - why destroy a very efficient industry. Don't believe any fudge (delay) possible - TM Deal non negotiable. Disagree with you that EU is broken, they have had several wake up calls (Greece, UK, Immigration …) and need to react to this, which they will and will improve as a result.
Minimum wage should be increased. Max Tax you say cannot become 75% - why not? Daft song from years ago - Tax Man, Kinks - "Just one for you 19 for me" - 95%.
Corbyn (if he gets in) will find it difficult to change anything much, like Obama, and as long as demand for housing > supply builders will do well (10 more years?) Don't think Politics matter much.

If you regard the Brexit Vote as no more than a statement of Intent then regardless of TM getting her Deal thru Govt there should be a 2nd referendum to accept her Deal or No Deal Brexit or Remain In. How could we vote for something we had no idea of the consequences of, when we were being continually lied to and Brexit Deal not even negotiated?

Anyway Imho. only 3 possibilities:
TM Deal rejected next Tuesday, TM resigns, Tories vote for new leader, Delay. Most probable.
TM Deal accepted by Govt and we go for inadequate compromise. TM remains PM.

No way will politicians accept No Deal Brexit without 2nd referendum, so I think we will Remain In.
All I can say is what a mess, how did our Politicians let it get to this and do we really want them in Control?
Last daft point - who is most probable to be next PM when Tories won't have a leader soon!?

No criticism of you and BoL

Hi Owls
Tw may be down 35% but profit up from £682 Mn to £851 Mn, Eps up from 17.9 to 21.3 and margin holding at 19.6%.
These numbers from my system and are probably out of date.
Only thing down is Per from 11.5 to a ridiculous 6.4 (when holding £600 Mn Cash).
When Brexit sorted Sp should be 138 * 14 / 6.4 = 300 (where 14 is pre Brexit Per).
Don't know how long recovery will take (or if we have reached the bottom now).
BoL

Hi skier1
Builders are such a bargain now, I think there is little difference between them, so a spread bet could be best (between psn, bdev and tw). Also bwy and rdw have lower Per's inferring they have more potential growth.
All builder will do well until housing crisis sorted (but a limited time - maybe 10 years)
I don't think Politics have much to do with this - Corbyn, No Deal Brexit...
Hoping for a big improvement in Sp this year, but not too worried cos of Divis.
BoL

Hi Tom
Just noticed PS2D message removed. Just 5 messages all anti builders - don't think he holds any shares.
Typical deramper - everything he says can be preceded by IMHO.
Last message had a fact about Govt deficit for a change. What this has to do with he housing crisis is beyond me.
I wish you a Happy New Year and all genuine supporters of this board.

Some big trades going thru with almost no effect on Sp.
Something happening soon?

Hi Troubles
Hope you are right. In the process of doing a float adjustment (Buys = Sells) and done the sells first, hoping Sp falls before the buys (before end of Jan). So from that point of view best for me 1 more big fall, then buy.
On a more optimistic note, if article 50 revoked (Remain In) I am going to borrow (from HSBC up to 50% Trade a/c) and invest in builders. Then any small loss made by selling at low point doesn't matter.
BoL

Hi Nigwit
Notice you said Brian Tenner said the liability would unwind slowly over years. Does this infer only a (small) %age of revenue will be used to pay off the liability? Can't get much better terms than that!
But as I said nano doesn't have an issue with finances anyway (when their partner is the biggest company in the world).
BoL

Financial Crisis for Nano? I think not. Apple could buy them (why haven't they?), or lend them £16Mn in next stage payment. Apple cannot afford to let Nano go bust (essential to their development, so if Nano needs £160Mn not a problem!) Nano finances are not an issue.
My only issue is maybe all Nano resources working for Apple (at the expense of Display...), not a good idea to have all your eggs in one basket!
Daft guess, Apple will pay > 300 for Nano shares if they decide to buy them, so not too bovvered, but then I loose my last Tech stock.
Very happy to Hold, and I wish you all a Great New Year, patricularly NigWit for his excellent analyisis.

Hi Johnson
If you regard the Brexit vote as a statement of intent then surely this infers a 2nd vote to accept / reject the Deal agreed (or not!) This infers even if TM Deal accepted by Govt the public should be asked if they agree with it (Brexit TM) or not (Remain In).
We had no idea what we were voting for at the time (besides the lies).
BoL

Hi Tom
I think one could argue if TM Plan not accepted and no Deal agreed we don't need a 2nd Referendum. Nobody voted to leave without a Deal, but if TM Plan rejected only 2 alternatives left, then Referendum.
As a Remainer I find it almost embarrassing the -ve publicity No Deal Brexit is getting - treating people like fools is never wise.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Don't know when Brexit will be sorted. Seems to me only 3 possibilities Brexit with No Deal, Brexit with TM Plan or Remain In. Hopefully we will know in 6 months (but could be delayed by Elections - Tory leader / General).
The sooner this is all over the better.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Makes no sense to me - Divi cover only 1.19 times earnings, when they hold £600 Mn Cash, 20% margin and, 20% + EpsG. What has become uncertain about fundamentals (derived - no doubt from accounts including forward sales). Got to admit if tw has an accountancy issue there is a problem (but doubt it).
Everyone knows there is a housing crisis which is not going to change any time soon (regardless of Brexit induced economic downturn, recession or austerity).
And he gets paid for this rubbish!
Not criticising you and thanks for mentioning it - BoL

Hi Calisto
Completely agree with you. Brexit has nothing to do with future house sales (nor did recession / austerity - as has been proven now).
Expect we will Remain In (Per's return to normal and all Bldrs double in price). The idea that Brexit does not affect builders then will remain unproven.
I thought 1st rule of business was relationship of supply to demand - if supply < demand big profits else big problems. Since we are in a housing crisis (and will remain in one), only 1 direction for builders.
BoL

Hi skier1
As I said Liberum (and for once I agree with them) have said No Deal Brexit already priced in. Don't know why demand for houses should change (regardless of Brext flavour), Psn are National builders and have largely moved out of London. Not bovvered about LSE builders - maybe they will drop 10 - 20%.
Just look at psn accounts, Per 7.1 (about 1/2 normal so Sp should be double current), Margin up from 27.9 to 29.7 in 1st 6 months, Cash in bank £ 1.3 Bn Dec-17, £ 1.5 Bn Dec-18 and yield 13.44% (assuming FinDiv up from 110 to 125 = IntDiv). The Divis alone will stop any significant drop in Sp.
BoL

Hi RetiredB
You think Corbyn has no chance of getting in? I think his chances are much better than you think.
What is becoming clear is people think we need a change (as I do) but what the answer is I don't know, (but not Corbyn!)
BoL

Hi skier1
History does not matter in terms of Sp. 2009 trough caused by banking crisis, which shouldn't happen again.
According to Liberum (FWIW) No Deal Brexit already built into price, so shouldn't go any lower.
Don't think foreign buyers matter much (cos so low %age of total) and a devaluing £ could encourage them.
Builders massive profits over the last 10 years is due to housing crisis (when 2/3 to 3/4 builders lost their jobs), causing a skills shortage which still exists.
Brexit makes no difference to shortage of houses so I expect builders to continue as previously (unless Corbyn gets in).
BoL