Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Pearls
Imagine you are a shorter - typical sort of statement they make with no justification or reasoning.
Overpriced at 145 (MrktCap 4800) when Eps 21.0? Dec-17 Sp 206 (MrktCap 6750) when Eps 17.9.
Earnings/Profit support the Sp, which are increasing as Sp goes down!
BoL

Hi Tom
Nice lively debate. My bet is Remain In after new referendum vote, Brexit with No Deal or Remain In.
Probably the plan all along - just 1st vote went wrong, so TM had to fight Official line, That is why I have sympathy for her, and I think she has done well.
Troubles hates all politicians hence my question - we need a change cos the system is not working!
I have the greatest respect for your loyalty to tw and politicians.
BoL

Hi Feeks
Do you think there is room for more than 1 CFQD player? Can't remember the letters of Video types but there was only one winner. Seems to me only 1 winner here and if support partner is you know who? only one winner.
I am very surprised no takeover attempts yet - nano MrktCap only about £100 Mn now - cheap as chips for a big Corp, Arm was bought for £15 Bn cash (I think) by a Jap Bank.
But maybe potential bidders know better than putting a bid in - don't argue with a $ 1 Tn Company!
Think everyone knows the US Corp, so hopefully Sp will rise as FatCats begin to realise it.
Can't believe the low trading levels now - the same 205 shares were bought and sold many times on Friday.
Snafu here yet again - BoL
BoL

Ps
Didn't mention Brexit, Trump, Putin, China, North Korea, Merkel, Global Warming, Gay Rights, Ireland beating the All Blacks, Asteroids and Comets, Tsunamis and Super Volcanoes cos they don't matter at all.

Hi All
Just read some of my last posts here and seem to be repeating myself. So now a few more ideas!
City believes a downturn in economy will badly affect builders, cos it has done in the past. Correct.
Last downturn due to Banking Crisis (created by our Govt), cos bankers would not lend money for mortgages, so builders could not sell houses. Bdev, and tw almost went bust, many other smaller builders (and suppliers) did go bust, reducing the workforce by over 50% (read somewhere it was 75%).
This disaster for the building industry means they cannot build the number of houses required and the shortfall is getting worse. Supply / Demand shortfall means that Eps, Margins, Cash and Divis will increase (as Builders / Brokers keep on saying).
Builders lost out big time cos of economic downturn and even though we have lived through Austerity for last few years (due to Govt incompetence) builders are thriving now.
This situation is completely diffirent from before banking crisis (when supply of houses roughly equalled demand) and previous downturns almost mirrored increase in Interest rates (which used to be set by Govt).
ie Increase interest rate - create economic downturn - make life hard for builders - and of course downturn means Builders suffer.
Interest Rates, and mortgage availability (now controlled by B of E, thank God!) determine builders sales potential and as long as demand exceeds supply, builders will do fine.
That is why I think Builders / Brokers are right and Market / City is wrong.

Last idea. What difference does Help to Buy make to builders? No builders criticise the scheme - no reason to and it could help a little. But the new buyers would still buy a house (old) which will push up the sales price of new homes built anyway.
As I said not looking to make 10 - 20%, 100% will do and trying to adapt my system to make the most out of the potential. Only Issue is what Govt does in their wisdom! Maybe all part of their plan to Remain In?
BoL

Hi Kitsz
City is usually overcautious and believe a downturn in the economy will affect builders badly. The builders have been saying for ages Brexit will barely affect them, and Brokers agree. It will be years before supply catches up with demand and so builders will continue to grow (as they have for last 10 years, including the 2 years since Brexit vote).
I think builders worth double current Sp (from Per's) but how long it will take to achieve that I can only guess (Say 1 Year after Remain In the vote, or 5 years after No Deal Brexit).
In the meantime quite happy picking 10% + Divis, while watching Eps and Divis grow.
BoL

Hi Kitsz
I'm not saying bdev better value than any other builder, but the value of Per's about half of what they were.
This infers either builders should be double current prices (and trading continues as is), or the market expects eps to half.
I believe builders profitability depends on supply / demand and Brexit makes no difference to that, even if economy slows down.
Imho we're not leaving EU anyway cos when Deal rejected there must be a choice - leave with No Deal or Remain In. No idea how long it will take though.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Looks to me like No Deal Bexit or No Brexit. All part of the Plan?
BoL

Hi Paulo
I hold psn, bdev, tw, bwy and rdw and move a float between them depending on upcoming RNS's and Divi's.
System all messed up now cos of Brexit.
Another good Broker report which, in US, would boost the price but over here we just ignore them.
BoL

Hi hellyeah et al
No criticism but you all seem to be looking at the short term (which can work very well if you get your timing right).
If you believe (like me) that the profitability of Builders is based on supply / demand then since this won't change much for years, their Growth should continue with increasing Margins and Cash pile / Divis.
Brexit, Resignations, Trump, Trade War, China ... really don't matter.
Simplest idea - Per is almost half what it was, and if builders still profitable (and Eps growing as forecast by Brokers) then Sp should be double what it is now.
Not looking to make 10 - 20%, 100% potential, just need to be patient.
Apologies to long termers, with a strategy like Mark.
BoL

Hi cm45
Tw not going bust cos £650Mn ? cash in bank, so hardly looking to raise finance.
As you say just market gyrations (which is always correct?)
BoL

Hi Tom
Couldn't do much worse. I would vote for a monkey - at least it wouldn't cost as much. But not easy to hang them.
BoL

Hi Tom
In Sep-16 Arm (UK's last big Tech Stock) was bought by a Jap Bank for 1700 per share, prev price around 1000.
If a Company calcs tw worth £10 Bn (= about 300 per share) they will make an offer of a bit less than 300 and hope it is accepted, and no other bidders emerge.
Drop in Sp has not affected finances (accounts or value) of the Company at all.
Hi Troubles
Silly question, but who else would you prefer to see at the helm?
BoL

Hi Tom
All is madness. What I meant when I said doesn't affect the value of builders is that if tw went bust tomorrow and sold all assets the value tomorrow is the same as the value yesterday. This (I think) leads to Price to Book Value, which I don't watch!
The point is the cash they hold, land and value of construction completed, materials paid for and assets like offices etc must be Far greater than the Mrkt Cap of £4.810 m at 147. I would suggest more than double.
This value doesn't change much day by day and Mrkt Cap should be > Net Value (assuming the company is making a profit - 20% margin?)

Now almost definite that Brexit Deal will be rejected (cos it suits no one) which means there must be a new referendum - Remain In or Exit with no Deal.
And so it drags on - I feel a bit sorry for TM cos this was inevitable - will she resign before or after vote?
Both daughters still in process of buying (old) houses and myself (even if No Deal Brexit, av temp increases 5 degrees, Trump awarded Peace Prize …)
BoL

Watched the News, and have now decided no clever plans so we RemainIn. I think nobody has a clue how this will unravel and proves again how incompetent our Politicians are. Far better to be ruled by EU (not quite as inefficient or incompetent as our Shower of S..t)
We still don't know what TM's plans are (which I cannot believe Brexiteers wanted, nor obviously Remainers), bound to be some inadequate compromise which suits nobody!
So, only way is a new vote to No Deal Exit or Remain.
Had a talk with my Bank Manager today, she quoted Carney saying House prices could decrease by 38% if no Deal Brexit (due to increase in interest rates). That comment was made in the days of fake news.
The guy that invented it (Trump) is probably right (but worst offender).
All we see is Media (making up their own standards, dependant on Company line) and Politicians (ditto).
We need a change.
Anyway, got my money on Remain In now, after Referendum or election, which is good for builders, but how long will it take to get back to reasonable prices? Hardly matters with Divis.
BoL

Hi Graham
No doubt the price reflects whatever happened in that meeting today, so will watch the news with interest (not that it makes any difference to the value of builders).
BoL

Hi Calisto
Part of Redern's responsibility is to identify the risks and threats (?) to the company (despite) being no more than a psychological effect. All the builders say much the same thing, all the brokers predict continued Eps Growth, which is why I think they should be around double the current price.
Given a justifiable Per of 24.0 (hedge against Brexit) then Sp should be 3 times current price - but the market is always right! What fool said that? If that was true foreigners would not have bought all our best Tech Stocks.
BoL

Hi Calisto and Troubles
Quite sure late rally due to DUP as you said, but also think Brexit result will have almost no effect on builders, whose performance is based on supply / demand.
If you get your timing right its a great time to be a day trader, but not my cup of tea.
BoL

Ps
The mystery is how can Brokers forecasts be so different from the market? One is right the other is wrong!
Stopped watching Brokers forecasts after Liberum consistently undervalued builders value (and drove Sp down) without any justification and subsequently proved wrong. Their own agenda?
Nother point - after saying Brexit will hardly affect builders, I might sound like a Brexiteer - I am not, totally Pro Europe and their inefficiencies are not nearly as bad as our Shower. More people work for MOD than RAF or Navy!
Would Grenfell happen in Germany or France?
Last point - If brokers are right (and me) we are looking at the bargain of the century. Sp manipulated by Algorithms, and short term Bots and losing the plot. The Answer is Value (or Quality) not short term trends.

Hi HeresHopin
Margins ultimately depend on the difference between supply and demand. If 1 year demand for houses is 1000 but only 500 built shortfall is 500. Next year demand 1000 again, but 600 built. Now shortfall is 900, and Margin will increase. This is why builders margins have been increasing for the last 10 Years (outside LSE).
Don't see why this should change (Brexit deal or not).
As for the future just look at Brokers forecasts (which I don't!) I think the vast majority will say increasing profit and recommend Sp far greater than they are now.
Hi Troubles
Like to think we are very close to the low point now, Brexit deal imminent, and even if No Deal can't see price dropping any more (built in).
Just looked up tw (on my probably out of date system) Y/e Dec-17 PreTax £682 Mn this year £856 Mn (from consensus of brokers forecasts - from CoyRefs). Don't record consensus Sp forecast but no doubt considerably more than 163. Maybe not as much as my 500, which is what I think they are worth now!
BoL