Member Info for Nige_W

Hi sunset
Bwy FinRes 16/10/18 and by gradual increase in price since (excellent) prelims I am hoping sp will increase more than bdev, in short term. Also, bwy has an even lower Per than bdev. Of course I could be wrong again like with pre XDivDt surge in bdev.
Then sit on hands til next year is the plan.
BoL

Hi sunset
Rolling in What?
Sold about 25% float in bdev (at a small loss) and bought bwy, going to hold rest of bdev until 600 +, hopefully 18 months (or less).
BoL

Hi Corlis
You are hoping Sp goes down to reach a level? You should convince Tom to sell his - which means that 161 will probably be achieved! He might not agree!
Don't use that method but Imho tw Sp should be about 164 * 13 (fair Per) / 8 (curr Per) = 267.
Hi Tom
Thanks for your kind words again, I am fine and hope you and family are well as well.
BoL

Hi divic
Nobody's perfect, we all make mistakes. Personally, I cannot believe how much Brexit has affected builders, proving to me (yet again) FI's have no idea what they are doing. ie How does Brexit affect supply/demand for houses?
Easy to say no FatCats invested in bdev cos of last years Sp drop after XDivDt, but this happened to all Bldrs at that time, cos of No Deal Brexit worries.
We were not ramping, cos that is what we believed (and as a previous post I sent justified Sp of 704), means FI's have gone into total panic mode.
You look at things too much in the short term - if Sp goes down to 200 am I bovvered? It is worth better part of 900 now and once Brexit sorted that will become the price so besides picking up 10% + Divis, I will get a better part of 2 * return on capital - ie 553 to 900 even if earnings don't grow (as they have done for last 10 years).
I hoped you were joking on your previous post, but after your last, I agree with goldens, and I think you should semd an apology to Mark.
Most importantly DYOR and don't blame everyone else.
I wish you the best of luck again - maybe for the last time.

Hi divic
Making any sort of prediction in these times is dangerous. Were it not for Brexit I am quite sure bdev would have gone up to 700 + pre XDivDt, (from NigRule 17 Sp becomes Divi * 20), while true value 800 +. Just calc Sp from reasonable Per say 13 ie Sp = 550 * 13 / 8 = 894. This is where Sp is going when Brexit sorted - no idea how long that will take!.
Hi Sunset.
Still here - trying to decide whether or not to go for bwy (before or after XDivDt).
Maybe NigRule 1 - when in doubt do nowt.
BoL

Hi Tom
Last Shares Issued (according to my probably out of date system) 3,272 Mn, so now 3,274 Mn.
So diluting Yes but effect more or less none, other than giving employees added incentive.
BoL

Start of song?
Do you remember "I'll have a ham"?
Surprisingly quiet.

Ps
You must be a day trader to have shares in vod. Just look at Sp graph of vod compared to any builder over last 5 years and EpsG, Margins, Divis, Net Cash, and Per's. Then consider Value.

Hi jpam
There are 2 ways of looking at things, either do your own research or follow (anticipate) the crowd.
Method 1 - All builders accounts look excellent but does not guarantee that the future will remain so rosy. Given that supply of housing will remain far short of demand, I believe (regardless of Brexit) builders will do very well for at least 5 years. So quite happy to pick up (10% +, as Eps increase) Divis.
Method 2 - Anticipate Sp movement from indicators. All very well but it means you have to update Port every day or so, and I can't be bovvered.
Personally I don't give a damn and believe bdev worth 800 +, where it will end up eventually.
Don't read books (like WB) but think his basic idea was to identify value. That is builders - particularly cos of their Cash position and Per.
Don't do shorts, but would be interested to know how you can go long - Buy at todays price to Sell in 3 Years time (at the price then).
This is no criticism of your method, and I wish you the very best of luck.

Hi jpam Mark
For me looks like bdev turned into LTBH. If Sp decreases by 35.2 after XDivDt the price will be ridiculously cheap, but not an opportunity for me cos got too much here already.
Trying to figure what is happening in the market now is impossible - so given up. I will wait until 600 before making any decisions.
Agree with Mark - patience needed.
Agree with jpam - outward movement of FI's - but they look at things daily.
No conflict in your ideas but my system doesn't work now (til Brexit sorted!)
Just going to hold builders for Divis now and (more or less) stop trading.
BoL

Hi Sunset
Are you inferring me and Mark are trying to manipulate the market? Wish I could, but doubt it.
Not even bothered cos I know the value will be realised eventually (800 +).
If Sp goes down to 250 (cos of Brexit disaster) it doesn't matter as long as you don't sell. Promised 2 kids £6k per year (max Gift prior tax), which I can pay from Divis alone.
I might sound too optimistic (ie ramper) but how long will it take for Brexit to be sorted. I suspect far longer in terms of bdev / bldrs Sp recovery, as opposed to the Political schedule, so bdev about to announce big pay back to shareholders (50p Special for next 5 years?) to push Sp up, and stop any foreign company trying to buy them.
Given the numbers Growth, Eps, Margin, Cash, Divis… and lowest Per's, just can't go wrong if you don't need to sell and can hold for 2-3 years.
BoL

Hi Mark
Interesting, my system says MStat2 due 14/11/18 so is this replacing it (17/10/18)?
Obviously done for a reason (to stop XDivDt decline?) and hardly likely to be bad, so might be able to sell float sooner than I thought. Usually MStat's have little affect on Sp, but I suspect they have something important to say like Tw policy statement some time ago.
BoLL

Hi Wkworld
Not long now til price 704!
20 * rule worked for bdev last 2 Divis
XDivDt Divi 20 * MxPre
27/10/16 24.7 494 503
26/10/17 34.4 688 695
11/10/18 35.2 704 ???
And last 2 tw Divis
01/06/17 9.2 184 185
31/05/18 10.4 208 203
Really no chance of reaching 704 this time cos of big sp drop after XDivDt last year.
But this was due to Brexit reaction (applied to all Bldrs).
Anyway, not selling for less than 600 (with a fair profit) so just have to wait for recovery. Trouble is over half my float in bdev, so messes my system up. Its not working now anyway (cos of Brexit), so hardly matters.
BoL

Disagreeing with myself again. Why would Apple deny being the partner if they were not.
Then again if they do deny it its a bit like my little daughter announcing one day "I have not been eating biscuits!"

Hi NigWit
Seems like the jury is out today - either Apple is the US partner or it is not. If it is I expect the Sp to rise significantly else Deutsche Bank got big problems. You would think they got their statement cleared before revealing confidential information, and if it was cleared why was it not reported as fact?
Anyway, if Apple take no action I think this implies they are the partner.
BoL

Hi divic
Sp doesn't matter if you don't sell - just keep on picking up Divis, As income from growth increases Divis will increase and while around 8% this year probably closer to 10% next year (on your buy price).
There could be more Brexit disaster days, but this does not affect the value of tw/bdev much, which will be realised eventually.
Trying to time surges (and plummets!) too difficult for me - expected FatCats to buy the Divi (in bdev) which hasn't happened and with Brexit anything can happen at any time. Best to just sit tight on the value (maybe 1 or 2 Years) and decide what to do then.
Nig Rule 1 applies - when in doubt do nowt!
BoL

Hi divic
I am sure you would do far better just taking the (6.3%) divi and holding, Next XDivDt around 18/04/19 about 1.5% giving almost 8%. Then you can forget about the Sp until it reaches true value 800 + with a great return there as well.
Just need to be patient in these disastrous times.
BoL

Hi NigWit
Normally I take no notice of brokers reports. Too often they seem to have their own agenda.
DB very optimistic on builders and given Apple connection very pessimistic on nano.
Makes me think they use a model based on accounts - Eps * F1 + margin * F2 + cash * F3 …
without taking any account of sentiment or perceived prospects.
Given Apple connection think (as somebody said) 148 more likely.
BoL and any thoughts?

Hi Rio
Think you can't go wrong on getting in at this price - just need to be patient.
Scrapping cap for councils is imho no more than publicity stunt. Will this lead to any more houses being built? If so who will build them?
BoL

Hi Mark
What we see now is Mad Mrkt Caps for builders. My av price for bdev is 524 with 35.2 Divi = 6.73%, but even float price 559 = 6.30%. Very happy with that, since I think the Sp should be 800+. As I have said I am moving a little float to top up bwy.
Have you noticed Nano. Up almost 10% today as news arrives from new broker Deutsce Bank, that they have 2 contracts with Apple (lurking US partner). DB target price 48 - cur price 37.6 - and as somebody said on nano Board, if it is Apple sp could be 148 short term.
Obviously a risky investment, but a pleasant change from the Doom and Gloom with builders.
BoL and I have no idea where Nano Sp will be by end of week/month.