Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Shareminator
From IntRes
"Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Dividends
As announced at our Capital Markets Day in May 2018, and subject to shareholder approval, the Company will pay an enhanced ordinary dividend of approximately 7.5% of Group net assets from 2019, which will be at least £250 million per annum. This ordinary dividend will continue to be paid equally as a final dividend in May and as an interim dividend in November each year.
We reconfirm today that we intend to return £350 million in special dividends to shareholders in July 2019, equating to c.10.7 pence per ordinary share, subject to shareholder approval at the 2019 AGM. Based on this, in 2019, shareholders will receive a total dividend of approximately £600 million or c.18.3 pence per share, which is a 20% increase on 2018."
But 18.3 / 169 * 100 = 10.8% Yield
10.7 * 20 = 214, but 20* rule only works well if 1 big divi and 1 small one. Tw increasing Int/Fin far more than special so need to rethink rule.
BoL

Hi Divic
Just been doing my system again (re Divis).
Tw XSpDiv 01/06/17, Divi 9,2, Max before 185 and 20 * 9.2 = 184
Tw XSpDiv 31/05/18, Divi 10.4, Max before 203, and 20 * 10.4 = 208
Don't work so well for bdev - 18.5 * Rule
Bdev XFnDiv 27/10/16, Divi 24.7, Max before 457 and 18.5 * 24.7 = 457
Bdev XFnDiv 26/10/17, Divi 34.4, Max before 656 and 18.5 * 34.4 = 636
Bdev XFnDiv 11/10/18, Divi 35.2, Cur Sp 557 and 18.5 * 35.2 = 651
So looking for 640 +
But don't know if or how sentiment might effect this.
Don' work for bwy and rdw cos Divis too small, nor psn cos Int and Fin Divis about the same.
To Do min Price before XDivDt (and % dif) and recovery time to Max before XDivDt.
BoL

Hi Divic
Never know it might get to 704 so don't sell too early. A month to XDivDt so surge should be starting soon.
BoL

Hi Divic
Don't think it is a good idea to set a target (sell) price. I stated 704 is possible based on Divi but given market sentiment probably won't reach that. I intend to hold as long as price going up.
Bdev and tw have always been great rivals, (like Ford and GM), but as an investor their sp performance are very similar, Main difference is bdev Ye Jun, tw Dec so bdev XDivDt surge now, tw 6 months away. I think XDivDt surge will be greater now due to low Per's. Just need to be back in tw for their XDivDt surge.
BoL

Ps
Just listening to "Man of constant Sorrow" from "Oh Brother, where art thou", always cheers me up!

Hi Bamps
Congrats on smiling in adversity - never let things get you down.
I only hold 6 shares, 5 Builders and nano cos I believe them all to be massively undervalued.
Messed up on DotCom Bust but made far more than I lost - should have managed Exit better.
From Per's easy to see how builders are undervalued, while nano has massive potential. Don't touch Aim, Oil or Mineral exploration as being too risky.
One thing I worry about is foreign companies buying my 6 companies cos they are so undervalued, like happened to my Tech Stocks. Last one arm kept me going thru initial Brexit slump, hoping nano will keep me going thru present No Deal Brexit slump, though some improvement there.
My idea is target undervalued companies (by Per or Potential) and wait for value to be realised, but need patience.
Incidentally, bdev XDivDt 11/10/18 Sp 557 and NigRule 17 states that Sp will increase to the point that it is 20 * the Divi (or divi becomes 5% of Sp - same thing). Divi is 35.2 so 35.2 * 20 = 704 = 26.4% increase. This is driven by Cash and FatCats - don't know if rule applies given such massive -ve sentiment.
I expect a gradual increase in bdev sp (due to Bots) towards that price. Then the question is when to bale out, so if daily increase stalling maybe that is the time.
BoL

Hi Tom
I sold Float in tw, psn and rdw to buy bdev (XDivDt surge 11/10/18) and bwy (FinRes 16/10/18) and topped up on nano (pre special announcement).
Just a daft note. After stating that I think whatever Brexit result it should have no effect on builders, I also created a small Cash reserve (cos I expect a big drop in Sp if No Deal). So (in a very small way) I am contributing to the panic.
BoL and hope we break resistance point - still have Base Level..

Ps
XDivDt 11/10/18, my dates from my equally insane program which guesses next dates - don't know where 16/10/18 came from! Ha,Ha,Ha.

Hi mushroom
My Crystal Ball?!
Bdev Divi 35.2 and according to NigRule 17, Sp will increase to 20* Divi = 704, which is when Divi becomes 5% of Sp.
This is driven by Cash and FatCats, but whether same applies now with current -ve sentiment, I don't know.
What it does mean is invest now and sell (a % age) before XDivDt 12/10/18 when daily increase in price faltering.
Hold remainder until Sp reaches buy price then Divi (6.4%) for free, (but how long will that take?)
Not much of a Crystal Ball but
Say 680 sell then 23% Profit, compared to 6.4% means not 50% / 50%. If it gets to 680 sell all (and bu**er the Divi !)This suggests the idea of selling in stages, but cos of Bots I think the increase in Sp should be fairly gradual, so sit back - have a beer, and watch the money rolling in!
Note If at any point between now and 16/10/18, No Brexit Deal is confirmed, all is Snafu and nice little plan does not work.
What is even more insane is people like me think of the reaction to No Deal Brexit, plan accordingly and create the problem, when I think it will have almost no effect.
Hope this makes sense but I'm going slightly mad (knitting with one needle!)
BoL

Hi Jakob
My system calcs Per based on current price and estimated Eps, So:
166 / 20.3 = 8.2. Eps of 20.3 calcd from Dec-17 Eps 17.9 and Est Eps of 21.4 for Dec-18.
And Peg of 8.2 / 16.5 (My Est of Eps growth) = 0.5
Where do you get your numbers from?
However you look at it fantastic numbers. Don't think Peg of great value, though anything less than 1.0 is good value according to Jim Slater.
Whether this means Sp should be Double curr price, or almost 3* according to your number of 0.37 is fairly meaningless if demand for houses collapses.
But as I have said don't think this will happen and as long as demand > supply Builders will keep on doing fine.
Yet another massive overreaction to a little bad news, by the market.
BoL

Thanks Terrace for your reply.
Don't know how you calculate PBV, but most surprised bdev can be better than tw on Assets (given tw cash and land bank). Can't remember why I decided not to record PBV (as stated in CoyRefs - probably find out if I looked it up there).
In any event there is no indicator to say where Sp is going - that is based on supply / demand. My own belief is that whatever the result of Brexit, demand will remain higher than supply and so builders earnings will continue to grow. Job security and risk of -ve equity are not most peoples concerns in moving cos most people move due to change in circumstances (new job, growing family...) Plenty more reasons why demand will remain > supply.
The only thing that can change this is a collapse in demand for housing (Interest Rates, Banking Crisis or Exodus of foreign Labour cos of XChange rate) - which I just don't see happening.
Almost all (National) builders are recording record Eps/profits, cash in bank, margins, divis - yet Per's at record Lows, so I maintain "Seriously undervalued".
Hi Troubles
Agree reputation is important but in terms of house building numbers it has almost no effect - just one company builds more than another (hit by some scandal). An old thread here was to address quality by building modular houses (or prefabs) see:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=woZfdb8gcPs
https://youtube.com/user/HUFHAUSGMBH
https://youtube.com/user/wwwhansehausde
Hi HeresHopin
Don't agree with any sort of Govt intervention (other than fix land price to agricultural price, and sponsoring apprenticeships - why should tw train Joiners when they don't employ any?)
BoL

Hi Terrace
Don't use PBV - seem to remember it relates to value remaining if company went bust. Hardly relevant when tw has £512 Mn cash, but would be interested to see how you can get tw price to 115 based on bdev PBV.
Critical number to me is Per (tw 8.2, bdev 8.1) where both are seriously undervalued.
BoL

Hi Jakob
If you relate profit (Eps) to Sp (ie Per) then 260 is justifiable. What has happened is the bad sentiment for the Sector has got even worse (Per about 8 now). I did not anticipate collapse in sentiment (Per and so Sp), but probably should have as no Deal Brexit was becoming more probable.
Fwiw I am moving Float from psn, rdw and tw to bdev (anticipate a XDivDt - 12/10/18 surge) and bwy (FinRes 16/10/18) and also nano (Capital markets day announcement Tuesday). Since not a required RNS should be good news (otherwise why make it?) So I am not really selling (undervalued stock) cos reinvesting in stock I think will do better in short term. Could also be a good idea to build a cash reserve in case No deal Brexit is confirmed.
At least no chance of having to pay CGT this year, and can set against future gains.
BoL.

Hi Owls
Agree Margins, CEO bonus, and even Divis are obscene
The system isn't working and hasn't been for a long time ie health, education, defence and building
The parts that are not working are run by our incompetent Govt (whichever color). So more intervention / interference by Govt in the housing system will ultimately make things worse.
The problems are lack of qualified labour (created by Govt getting rid of tradesmen during Banking Crisis - which they created) and the price of land.
Can't do anything about lack of labour (other than import it, or long term, more apprenticeships sponsored by Govt), but could regulate land prices ie base land price on agricultural value - like Germany. What is % cost of land compared to cost of house?
I believe this is not possible for our Govt (whichever Colour) cos of vested interests and greed (as I have said before). Don't know what the solution is (New Party, Gunpowder?)
Incidentally, cost of land makes no difference to builders (other than their land banks), cos Sell Price = Cost Price + Land Price + Margin. Very Round numbers: say 33% Build Cost, 33% Land Cost, 33% Margin, Then if Land Cost goes down to 3% then Sell Price decreases by 30%. Everyone is happy! (apart from FatCat Landowners).
Interesting to note Troubles message Tw 47th in the list of land owners.
BoL

Hi All on thread
System is not working, so need new System, like freeze house land prices to agricultural prices, like Germany.
Almost impossible in this country cos of greed. Yet another reason to stay in EU.
Solves most problems (houses become more affordable) except builders Land Banks lose value - but they can afford it.
Think Owls was joking, but no doubt he will make a good reply. Anyone know % land price to Total cost price of houses, depending on region?
BoL

Hi NigWit
I am probably one of your greatest fans, but rather like Troubles I think you should not bother with getting into Tis/Tisn't arguments with fools. Just not worth replying to, and a much better (peaceful) strategy.
Keep posting here, hate having to subscribe to things.
BoL

Hi Mark
Agree with you that an upward trend to XDivDt. Don't think there is any point in looking at Buys/Sells or Trade volumes cos most now seem to be After Hours anyway, Agree with Deutsche Bank valuation (but how long will it take to get there? - when Brexit sorted, after October Ha Ha!)
Fwiw my intention is to buy now and sell half just before XDivDt, then sell other half when Sp returns to Cur Price - doesn't usually take long wih bdev.
Divi for nothing, Chicks... Key is Divi > 5% (6.4% now at 553)
Hi Oranetree, re Silly article
https://walbrockresearch.com/will-barratt-development-and-the-rest-of-the-home-builders-continue-to-grow/
"In the notes, management expects Barratt average selling price to decrease in 2019"
Couldn't find that, rest is meaningless.
Then IF "Home prices crash like it did in 2009?", but why should they?
Assuming incorrect premise he concludes bdev will half in value as opposed to 95% decrease in value in 2010.
So that is good? Or they can do what psn and bwy did in 2009 and just stop building so many houses, and wait for recovery! They have the cash to do that now.
WalBrock in Dreamland, and will certainly not subscribe.
Hi mushroomkid
Think you've got it right, but you need to set your Sell strategy as well (XDivDt).
BoL

Hi Tom
Bdev going along nicely 3.7% up on week, (but no Float there), rdw up 9.1% in week and I have a float there so very happy. Trouble is still losing money on float (av 633, cur 598) but at least going in right direction.
BoL

Hi Owls
Its about 10% more ethical than psn margin of 29.7% and £1,300 Mn cash they have in the Bank. tw a paltry £512 Mn. But you can tell by the Per both companies on verge of bankruptcy!?
Hi Jakob
Management Statement (between IntRes and PreFin) due about 13/11/17
BoL

Thanks for link Tom
Easy to write a program to predict future price movement, not easy to take all factors into account and get some level of accuracy into it. No idea how accurate their system is, but low point April 19 of 128 is ridiculous.
Buy on that date and yield for 2019 will be over 14% In about 5 years divis > initial investment and demand will still be > supply.
BoL