Member Info for Nige_W

Hi sunset
Things hotting up nicely (by trade volumes). Should be good for Sp, but how far will it go?
I have no decisions to make while less than 600 but watching anyway.
BoL

Hi Mark
Reason for long recovery last year was Brexit issues (all builders dropping).
Of course could be more Brexit issues this year, this is why I am looking at Aims.
And after saying many times I think Brexit will have very little affect on builders, I am actually contributing to the panic by moving out (partly) of builders. Dog wagging its tail?
The sooner Brexit out of the way the better, cos no book ideas will work at the moment (other than for Aims).
BoL

Thanks Mark
I will make a note of it. Just too busy with my system (almost finished now - but never will be, at least it should take up far less of my time), but then I need to set up my Aim investment plan. I will buy it when I have time to read it.
Have you got an exit plan from bdev?
BoL

Hi all
Bought at 559 now 576 = 3.0% return.
Divi is 35.2 = 6.3% return,
When profit on buy price > 6.3% time to start thinking of banking.
If price 600 them return is 7.3%, or (for me) don't think about it until > 600.
Going along quite nicely right now.
BoL

Hi Johnson
No definite plan. My intention is to sell a %age before XDivDt (maybe in 2 or 3 batches) and hold remainder for divi (probably less than 25%). No target price either - sell when price not going up, no more than 7 working days before XDivDt.
Last year weekly increase was constant (don't know about daily). Already in profit - if big increase good idea to bank a bit (hence batches).
BoL

Hi Graham
Change in sentiment long overdue, DC on bdev now which is a good move.
Sent him a reply:
"Given perfect timing I should have bought bdev 06/07/18 at 483 (tw 173), now bdev 570 (tw still 173).
My float in bdev bought at 559 (10/09/18) for XDivdt cos I did not anticipate better than expected PreFin
results (12/07/18)."
Think bdev on course for 640 +
Going to change my system by increasing Float to 67%, 33% base value, (from 50, 50).
BoL

Hi divic
You need to look at bigger picture (as SlickM says).
Given perfect timing I should have bought bdev 06/07/18 at 483 (tw 173), now bdev 570 (tw still 173).
My float in bdev bought at 559 for XDivdt cos I did not anticipate better than expected PreFin results (12/07/18).
Mark looking for 650, !m still looking for 640 + (a lot!)
Think we're on course for 640 + which is nice little profit (but much better if 700!)
BoL

Seem to be increasing all the time. How can you see any trend when most deals after hours?
Really annoys me.

Hi Mark
I have written my own system, but all pretty meaningless with Brexit.
bdev up more than any other builders this week but well behind where I thought they would be by now.
Maybe big post XDivDt drop last year has put people off, but drop due to Brexit (No deal looking more probable) and affected all builders.
My guesstimate of 640+ looking optimistic but still hopeful.
BoL

Hi Jakob
Generally low per represents -ve sentiment (all builders suffering cos of Brexit), but crst and Lse shares have even more -ve sentiment cos sales suffering in Lse. So low Per only represents good value if backed up by good accounts and prospects.
Brexit panic so bad now the companies least affected are those with the most cash (psn. bdev and tw) cos they can't possibly go bust. From this point of view bwy and rdw are the best value at the moment, bwy FinRes 16/10/18 and in Prefin reported they have £100 Mn cash, while rdw totally safe cos mainly owned by chairman who could just privatise it.
2 other companies mentioned are gfrd (I watch them but avoid - mainly low margin Civils) and gle (small builder - make most money out of land trading, where they have been very successful but no guarantee this will continue).
Nice to see all builders up today - expecting to see bdev moving soon as people buy the divi.
BoL

Hi Troubles
That was a bit misleading I agree.
I maintain that as long as demand greater than supply builders will do just fine (which will take years to change), but you can bet your last dollar if no Brexit Deal confirmed, builders Sp will tumble. They will recover as people realise it makes no difference, but that is the reason I need cash to cover that issue.
My actions are actually creating this issue. Am I daft or the market?
According to my system the only significant things happening before the end of year are bdev XDivDt (11/10/18) and bwy FinRes 16/10/18, so system says turn Float to Cash. I agree cos small returns not worth chasing, given a potential disaster.
Big returns in Builders are made from January to May, but there again who knows with Brexit?
So gave me the idea of using Float in Aims (Brexit Proof), also UK Coys in US, aht and ferg.
Incidentally my system identified 4 low points (ie get out of builders before these dates and Invest after) for 2017.
20/01/17, 02/06/17, 15/09/17 and 10/11/17. Could coincide with Liberum reports, Moon relative position to Jupiter...
BoL and hope your roof OK despite Helene and Ali.

Hi Sunset
Heavy after hours trading again and bdev up over 1% this week - right direction just hope it speeds up a bit.
BoL

Hi Jakob
Thanks for your concern.
Aims will make up less than 20% Port so not too worried, Will hold 50% Float as cash in case Builders collapse (so able to average down). Max Aim 50% Float = 25% Port.
Should have a plan by end October.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Yes Brexit is a World changer - for UK at least.
But as far as builders are concerned, I don't think it will have much affect (driven by supply / demand - which is not going to change any time soon). In fact I think builders will be the least affected sector, so it is ridiculous that their prices have decreased the most. Does mean they are fantastic value.
Just a few days ago I said I thought Aim's too risky for me and now I have 6 to invest in.
BoL

Great discussion, loads of things to check out
Bamps says
Sound Energy - SOU?
Predator Oil
CERP
Tom says GPP
Jakob says EUZ
Bazz says TRIN
According to my plan about 10% Float available now, 90% available mid October, 100% for next year.
Think I will go for using 1 / 3 Float for Aims.
Lot's of work to do!
BoL

Pps
How can anyone know what is happening when share trades info is delayed? No market makers any more so a new scam? How can it be allowed? Stinks!
Just hope it sorts itself out.

Hi Bamps
Certainly not going to get a 10 bagger with big builders, to me they are bread and butter (ie big Divis, steady growth, and fantastic value). I hold nano which is possibly a 10 bagger (don't know how long that will take though), which is worth a look.
Short term I think a possible 25% increase in bdev before XDivDt (11/10/18), which is quite a return, followed by a move to bwy before FinRes (16/10/18) which should be good cos excellent PreFins.
After that not much happening with builders until next year so move to Cash (preparing for Brexit horror!)
But this gives me the opportunity to have a (very) small flutter on Predator Oil and Sound Energy, which are obviously not affected by Brexit. Think Tom is going for GPP. Have to check them out, cos I know nothing about any of them!
I wish you the very best of luck with them, and the sooner we see the end of Brexit (whatever result) the better.

Ps
Just looked at trades and shows unusually high levels (due to XDivDt?)
Maybe FatCats moving in for Divi?

Hi Mark and divic
Not only that but since Sp went up a bit during the day they all went thru as sells cos less than UT price, and for every sell there is a buyer (otherwise no sale). So not really worth watching.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Ceo of psn performed so well he got a massive bonus (causing resignations on the remuneration board). Hardly his fault.
Surprised you say bad quality of design at bwy - they look OK to me.
You might prefer rdw (best performing builder over last 6 years) and Chairman, founder and X Ceo Steve Morgan, doesn't take any salary from his company, Think he is still the main shareholder (holding 100's of millions in the company).
Just topped up in bdev - looking good so far.
BoL