Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Troubles
Hope you are right about Nano. Deutsche bank wouldn't say partner Apple without evidence.
If this is the case and Apple don't deny it, I expect big increase in sp.
Builders still a disaster but in profit for week cos of Nano.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Looks like my float in bdev could be stuck there for a while.
Imho the market has totally overreacted as usual creating the ridiculous Per's we now see (5 for crst ?!)
Just have to be patient.
BoL

Hi humdrum
Please Dyor and don't blame me if it goes pear shaped - think anything can happen right now!
What particularly impressed me was Prelims predicted an increase in cash from £16Mn to £100Mn, and that will impress big investors (hopefully pushing per up to 7.5 - 8.0).
Still don't think Brexit will effect builders much, more worried about the indirect effect of banks suffering big time, so they become reluctant to lend again. But because of cash position of builders, even this should have little effect on them.
Not too worried about profit forecast because of the huge increase in cash. Had to come from somewhere (decrease in land bank?) so it sounds like bwy tightening their belt - probably a good idea right now.
Still loads of trading in bdev with almost no price movement. Besides bwy (25% float after XDivDt) I'm not selling any for less than 600, so looks like I'm stuck here for a while and have to pick up 6.3% Divi.
BoL

Hi Bamps
I'm still hoping for a surge in bdev. I will sell some anyway (10/10/18) to invest in bwy, but even if FinRes excellent it probably won't make much difference to Sp given current -ve sentiment.
Sooner Brexit settled the better.
BoL

Hi Wkworld
All builders are massively undervalued - not much to choose between them, and I check prices every day as well, but use a float system so not a Long Term Buy Holder, but move the float between them. No doubt there will be more Brexit disaster days, but the value remains.
My current Plan is to move some float from bdev to bwy before FinRes 16/10/18, which I hope will boost their sp more than I get from bdev.
Just need to be patient and wait for Brexit to be settled then Per's will (eventually!) return to Pre Brexit levels and bdev sp will be 800+.
BoL

Hi Wkworld
We area all new to this - Brexit is causing chaos. Generally sp pushed up until XDivDt when the sp is 20 * Divi (or Divi is 5% of sp - same thing) by FatCats buying the 35.2 Divi. 20 * 35.2 = 704 which is where the sp would go if it wasn't for Brexit, but who can say in current situation.
You are right, sp used to drop by the amount of Divi after XDivDt, but who knows now?
Hoping for a late surge next week, but no idea what will happen.
Not much in way of advice, other than to say bdev are massively undervalued so Hold. They will eventually reach their true value, 800+ imho but not holding my breath!
BoL

Thanks Tom
The combination of growth, profit, margin, cash and divis, I think has never been seen before in any sector in history.
I welcome suggestions of any company that is comparable.
BoL

Hi Terrace
You make subjective judgements 'brave face', 'word from insiders', but the numbers speak for themselves.
All at record highs except Per at record lows. Never seen a Per of 5 before - unbelievable! This infers builders are undervalued by a record amount - never seen anything like it before.
But the icing on the cake is the cash they hold. If everything goes pear shaped they just stop building and live off the cash til things pick up again (like psn, bwy and bkgh did last time). Very low overheads cos everything subcontracted out so no expense in paying them all off.
Don't believe Brexit will have much effect on supply/demand, so no crisis ahead anyway.
BoL

Hi Jakob
All builders are great value now, which is best depends on how you value them ie Most Cash or lowest Per - which are becoming inversely proportional. Personally I am more tempted by lowest Per's like crst and bvs - but don't touch Lse. That leaves bwy and rdw
I like to think my method of moving a float between them (depending on upcoming Divis and Rns's) enables me to increase profits by being in the right place at the right time - hence move from bdev to bwy. No surge in either yet - just hope bdev surges before bwy (and delay move as long as possible).
Then got to decide how much float to move (25% or 50%). I will hold 25% float in bdev for Divi, so difference in cash - either 25% or 50% of bdev float.
Using this system (50% base value and 50% float) and Last in First out method, you always hold your original shares, Worst performer tw (last bought Aug-16) av price 163 so still up a little there.
BoL

Hi Owls
I disagree we have reached top of cycle - all Nationals reporting record profits, margins, held cash and Divis. Hardly a sign of a sector in trouble, and when the market does turn builders will just build less houses (like psn and bwy did 10 years ago).
No issues now cos they all have loads of cash. Completely new ball game and I agree builders used to be cyclical but don't see them as cyclical now. What is the length of the cycle?
Ten years of continuous growth which will remain the case as long as demand > supply - another 10 years?
Tw, bdev and rdw had to keep building to pay off their debt so supply > demand - they won't make that mistake again.
The cycle is bust, and builders should be regarded as growth stocks.
Even Brexit (whatever the outcome) shouldn't bother builders much, and as long as they have Cash they are immune to almost all forms of disaster.
All of course Imho, and not criticising yours.
BoL

Hi Tom
All gone very quiet at nano. Fin Res 16/10/18 (same as bwy I think) and hoping for some movement then.
Not topping up (or averaging down!) cos got too many there anyhow.
Got 10 Aims to look at - hoping to reduce to 5 to invest in and watch other 5. Lots of work to do in building in to my system - Historical prices, Coy Refs …
BoL

Ps
Missed your last post. £100 Mn cash! Same as tw - that is a bargain!
Still going for bwy who have increased cash from £16 Mn to £100 Mn (according to Prelims).
Incidentally bdev now has slightly bigger Mrkt Cap than tw now and almost twice the cash.
Bargains everywhere!
BoL

Hi Jakob Tom
Margin squeezed to 17.2% (which in any other sector would be regarded as excellent), but market has special rules for builders! Can't find net cash or gearing.
Going to top up Float in bwy from bdev (sell part Float in bdev before XDivDt 11/10/18) and invest in bwy before 16/10/18 FinRes.
Last year bwy sp 15/09/17 2994, 20/10/17 3718. Not much of a surge yet.
BoL

Hi Jakob
Crst is Lse so I don't hold them, but Per of 5 infers they are on the verge of going bust. If they don't could be worth 3 * current Sp. If the company is viable (cash position) it could be bargain of the century.
Never seen a Per of 5 before - if anyone has what was the company and what happened to it?
Quick glance at accounts - looks OK - but prefer to stick to Nationals.
BoL

Hi Mark
Of course the big question is "When?"
Quite happy to hold cos value will be realised eventually. Data for builders infer they are about 50% + undervalued (from Per's - bwy & rdw most, psn least, bdev & tw between them). Based on sell price of 600 return is 13.6% (even more now with price of 558 - my price 559) and obviously sell price of 650 is far better.
Hope Sp reaches 600+ pre XDivDt cos I want to sell some before 16/10/18 to buy bwy for FinRes. Have some Float there already so only about 25% of bdev Float (ie sell batch 1).
Hold 25% in bdev for Divi and sell other 50% to Cash, or Hold all 75% in bdev - don't know.
The big question remains "When?"
If No Deal Brexit confirmed Builders Sp will plummet again (so better in Cash), then Referendum (another plummet), then Vote to Remain In (Sp will increase gradually to about 800 or 900 - maybe 1 to 2 Years).
Too many short term -ve's, so looking to sell remaining float above 600, thereby becoming a Brexit Panic Person, while I think Builders will be the least affected Sector.
The dog's tail is wagging the dog!
Hi mushroom
I've scattered some numbers around like madman's shit, but agree it all comes down to guesswork and luck.
BoL

Thanks Mark
Hope you are right. Don't have any decisions to make till 600, when do you think that will be?
BoL

Fwiw
Not selling any for less than 600 and if need be hold on to shares until = 600, however long that takes.
Then (from 559 buy price) 7.3% return + 6.3% Divi = 13.6%. Not Bad!
It is a growth share (for last 10 Years) so only a matter of time - despite Brexit.
BoL

Hi divic
You could be right about 590 600, but I am not giving up hope.
The people buying the Divi are not concerned by politics / sentiment only Cash, so a battle is growing between the Brexit Panic People and the FatCats. Never said this before but I hope the FatCats win (in which case 640+ possible).
Hopefully some sanity will return next week.
Have a look at after hours deals, might make you feel better, but not sure if it means much.
BoL

Hi Troubles
I don't think result of Brexit will have much effect on builders, but uncertainty is having a massive effect on Sp so cannot be ignored, and still think we are on course for a referendum (leading to further delays).
The 2 year delay you mention confirms again to me that TM never wanted a Deal and her agenda is on course.
At least she has a degree in Geography which means she knows where Europe is (probably more than the rest of the idiots supposedly running this Country - or what is left of it).
BoL

Hi Mark
I thought the Sets system got rid of all that sort of Sp manipulation.
Most surprised Sp gone south today.
Looks like we're still on course for No Deal Brexit followed by a referendum, further delaying the result.
BoL