Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Troubles
The trend is your friend. Hopefully the trend has changed and now +ve, but no doubt potholes remain.
Nice to see 200 by Xmas (not saying it will happen though).
As you know I have said for ages the effect of Brexit on Builders is a (unjustified) panic reaction which won't effect supply / demand (hence profitability) for years.
Predicting what will happen now is almost impossible. Sp driven irrationally by (irrelevant) news, so hardly matters what the accounts reveal.
Hi pickles
Apple has not been confirmed as partner, but as Troubles said Deutsche Bank, Edison and Jeffries "Strongly" believe it is (and explain why in their reports). The mystery company has paid for a production line, is paying for R & D and will not let nano go bust or be bought out. I suppose many other US Coys could afford to do that, but Apples IR sensors need CFQD's to work. Not definite (as a risk assessor would say) and may not be confirmed until next year (when production starts) then almost impossible to deny it. Where is the income coming from (British Virgin Islands?)
BoL

Ps
Nano going very nicely as well - 13.5% up this week on top of about 5% last Friday. People are beginning to realise their US partner is Apple (biggest company in the world, and CFQD's are essential to their future development).
BoL

Hi Tom
Continued and consistent Sp increase this week, led by tw 6.58% up.
Could be down to Budget or (hopefully!) a change in trend. At some point the downtrend must end (who would buy while Sp going South)? Maybe this is the news that changes all this and Santa Rally has arrived early.
Normally followed by best time of year for builders (until end of May) as results are published.
What does your Tech Analysis make of it? Any resistant points before 300.
Maybe 170+ by end of week.
BoL

Hi Owls
Do you use any reference Info? I use Company Refs where you can list any parms (eps, cash, divis, rel strength …) in inc/dec order. Can't be bovvered to calc it all myself, just copy it to my system which works out all comparisons, and suggests an investment strategy.
Not very useful at the moment, cos it tells me to do nothing at all !
BoL

Hi Kitsz
The mess, issues and opportunities we are now in are all due to Brexit!
The downturn for builders started almost 6 months before the Brexit referendum (June 2016). This means that you should compare Per's (say average of 3 years before 2016) with current Per's.
Even this could be misleading as prev disaster (banking crisis) could still be affecting Per's then.
This leads to average Per of around 14.0 (as compared to Ftse100 av of 15.0), so my statement that all builders
should be about twice current price is (roughly) correct, if you ignore Brexit.
The difference between Per's is significant, psn highest (most cash, lowest gearing), rdw and bwy lowest Per's, (least cash, highest gearing) - bdev and tw somewhere between them. Previously the difference in Per's less dependant on cash, inferring rdw and bwy are best value. Neither going bust, rdw owned by multi millionaire who is the biggest shareholder, while bwy has £100 Mn Cash.
No criticism of your system, but I find it easier to identify value (start point Per's) as opposed to trends which I think can be misleading. For instance the last downturn you noted (starting in Oct-17) was due to increased potential for No Deal Brexit, while the RNS release dates from builders depends (as you noted) on YE dates.
So to compare Sp directly means little - better to compare Eps. Sp can be manipulated (as Mark said), not Eps.
Right now the Sp could go anywhere (hence my advice buy a small amount now and top up or av down), cos must be close to the bottom. Once that is reached there will be a revaluation of builders which will eventually lead to Pre Brexit Per levels and so double the prices, how long ???
For that reason Santa surge could have already started.
My av price for bdev is 515, cur 511 so losing 1% after buying a lot for Pre XDivDt surge (which didn't happen)! But getting a big Divi (06/11/18) which puts me in profit.
Much better is psn av 1763, cur 2276 so up 29%, not including > 10% Divi.
BoL

Without doubt a private deal between one FI and another. Interesting to note Bid 156.0 Ask 156.1 when Sp 155.4 and that deal was at 156.85. Think it looks good for tomorrow. I hope this trend will continue and maybe we are at the low point now. Nice to know who buyer seller was.
BoL

You look at Trade History and it makes no sense at all, so look at after hours trades, now and just 1, I think Lse is simply not reporting them. Not really too bovvered cos means almost nothing now anyway.
Just hope Manof is right and a breakout on the way.
BoL

Hi Kitsz
Nice little surge in builders earlier, bdev 2.25%, rdw 3.60%, bwy 0.72%, psn 2.10%, tw 2.63%. Don't know why, Budget?
Anyway at the risk of repeating myself - just look at Per's, traditionally 14.0 for builders.
Bdev 7.4, rdw 6.1, bwy 6.9, psn 8.3, tw 7.3 (according to my Calcs - based on Brpkers forecasts), or roughly half of old values.
The important thing is that the market believes Eps will become about half what they are currently, while builders think they will keep on increasing.
Is this little hiccough in a downtrend and no more than that, or could this be a turning point?
I don't know. One thing is for sure the downtrend will end, and a revaluation of builders will begin.
That is why I say buy a small amount now and increase if price goes up, or average down if price goes down.
Not going bust with the cash they hold.
Most importantly, think long term - could quite easily double in price when Brexit sorted, and in mean time just pick up 10% + Divis.
Who would buy in a downtrend? Only the brave - are you a Man or a Mouse?
Not saying bdev is the best value - need to look at other things like Mark said, but I believe builders are growth shares (have been for 10 Years and will be for at least the next 5). That is why I watch different things from Paul.
Business is based on Supply / Demand (hence my note on Paton's who were selling wool to the Coop at a loss cos they couldn't afford to lose the production).
Hence Eps, Margin (change) very important, Divis just a bonus.
I suggest you buy in soon - BoL

Your posts say 163 yet from History only 142 - the rest deleted?
Member since 28/05/18 since last ban?
All 47 posts in last month on Nano board. Do you hold any shares at all?
What is your agenda?
Don't expect a reply, but if you have a short on Nano I suggest you get out of it soon.
Then, hopefully you will leave this board in peace.

Hi sunset
Nice to hear you agree with my basic ideas.
All business is fundamentally driven by supply / demand, so builders can't fail (with Demand and Cash!)
Long time ago I worked for Patons and Baldwin (making hand knitting wool which was more expensive than the finished product SE Asia was producing). The writing was on the wall - no demand yet we had to keep buying wool which we couldn't sell!
Very sad about that. particularly cos I met the best IT Director I ever knew (Hilary Allen). After that job I went contracting and met her again at Nationwide - she and her husband were also contractors.
The collapse of Patons was inevitable and such a talented person should never have been wasted there. Probably driven by a sense of unjustified loyalty.
Realised that loyalty and sentiment mean nothing - just have to look at the cold facts (Accounts) and factor in prospects.
BoL

Hi Nano
Looking at trades I expect a lot of big after hours to have gone thru.
Maybe Jeffries, maybe a big Fi building a holding or maybe News.
Just hope it continues next week!
BoL

Hi KD37
If I was thinking of investing in bdev I would invest a small amount now with the intention of increasing my holding on an increase in Sp.
The reason for this is builders are massively undervalued now, and we could have reached the low point, but there could be more Brexit Disaster Days - this way you can easily average down (if needed) and then build on profit as builders recover.
I have too much in bdev and bwy but no way I;m selling any - just happy to pick up Divis.
BoL
Have you looked at psn and tw - not much to choose between them, and bwy and rdw - could be better value cos lower Per's

Hi Kitsz
A Companies value does not need to be compared to anything. It is a simple calc, depending on profitability (Growth, Profit, Margin, Divis and Cash). And their prospects. Every company can be assessed this way and depending on how you do it you may get a score from 1 to 10. Builders are 10, Banks are 1 Imho.
Not even bothered that Banks stop lending, builders will just stop building - cos they have the cash to do it, as proven by psn and bwy 10 years ago. Then a bit embarrassing for Govt, who say they want to build more!
Will houses become unaffordable? Don't think so cos builders will only sell what will be bought. If more profit in expensive housing that is what they will build - but they are flexible.
Neither of my daughters are buying new houses and I have helped them a bit, not a problem if less than £6k per year and you can use last years £6k allowance if you did not give them that. Anything above that you just call it a loan and still exempt from tax. Tax man is looking for bigger Fish!
When we bought out first house we never dreamed of buying new, so I really don't think (help to buy) makes too much difference.
Just get Building land prices down to Land prices (inferring about a 25% drop in sale price of new homes), and job done like in Germany. But too difficult here.
BoL

Hi Kitsz
Our big Ally in Brexit negs is Merkel and Germany, and since they run the place we could get a Deal (hopefully).
Personally, as far as builders are concerned I don't think it matters much for next 5 years.
Value Imho is quite easy to calculate - just look at old Per's and compare to current Per's - hence my valuations. The issue is Brexit - and to what extent you decrease value by this unknown factor. Builders think almost no difference and profits will keep on increasing, (due to demand for houses remaining far greater than Supply), while the market believes Eps for builders will decrease by 50% + (as the current Sp illustrates). Trump, China don't matter cos Building in this country so Insular.
Govt does not set interest rates any more (Carney and BofE now) and won't increase much even if £ devalues again.
Even if they go up Bldg Socs will just let you borrow more, to get more people into never ending debt!
There will be no doubt more Brexit Disaster Days but I am all in, and will not try to anticipate what is happening by buy / sell, just holding for things to return to normal (which could take some time)!
If I was young I would emigrate!
BoL

Hi NigWit
So Deutsche Bank says partner is Apple, Edison says Apple. Can they both be wrong?
Troubles said (a long time ago) that when US partner revealed (whoever it was) should boost nano sp by 50%.
Now almost definitely Apple, so future guaranteed - No cash worries, nor sales issues, yet no Sp movement?
Think you were right all along, and when nano backed by the biggest company in the World, they will rocket soon when FI's realise what is happening - Don't know how long that will take though (cos they are all idiots)!
BoL

Just noticed missing deals in the afternoon so looked up price on msn 35.3 (not 34.00 as quoted here).

Hi Kitsz
I am convinced low builders Sp is due to Brexit (a 0.25% increase in interest rates makes almost no difference even if due to Brexit). What I am saying is when we get Brexit out of the way, Per's will return to pre Brexit levels, in which case my calcs should be correct. Only issue here is how long this will take? Then will the recovery be gradual as people realise builders OK, cos still increasing earnings, or spikey as results are published.
There has never been continued demand for housing - Maggie pushing up interest rates 1980, and banks refusing to lend 2008.
I said before the high interest rates suited me nicely (house bought about 1977 for £12k mortgage, tough at first but payments got easier quickly), an advantage I don't think my kids will get cos interest rates set by BofE, and not going to happen again.
So interest rates are not cyclical any more.
Next interest rate rise could be 0.25% again - no real change, or 0.50% very little change but Banks will make it easier to borrow even more!
Interesting point about difference between Europeans / British, Renting / Buying. I think Europeans don't want to put all their money in 1 basket cos might all be taken off them (Invasion - WW2), in which case they have lost everything.
Also explains why foreigners want to buy property here.
Prefabs have been discussed before (on tw board) and are the future Imho. Some excellent German companies use this method.
Last point - I write most of my messages in Notepad and save them in Company / Date order - add extra ref to person if you like. Then Cut / Paste to the board.
When I started in computing I think a floppy disc drive held 100k memory - now not an issue.
BoL

Hi Kitsz
You must remember that all your numbers are affected by Brexit. Previously Per's for builders were around 14.
To draw conclusions from your data is misleading because it depends on what stage the Brexit panic was at when they released their numbers.
My Per's are based on historical Per and current Per (Sp / projected Eps).
Undervalued amount psn 71% means psn sp price (Friday) 2162 should be 2162 + 71% of 2162 = 3697 Similarly
bdev 492 + 89% = 930, tw 151 + 92% = 290, bwy 2750 + 119% = 6023 and rdw 506 + 130% = 1164.
Do you aree with this method? What about the other points I make - supply / demand, market right or builders / brokers and how I believe builders are now immune to any downturn cos of cash.
Hi Pat
Banks might have been affected by Brexit but nowhere near as much as builders.
Hi Mark
Appreciate more to valuing a company than Per alone, but Per and prospects are my start point, then margin, growth, divis, cash. (My old method for growth stocks). That is about all I look at.
BoL

Hi Tom
I am never offended. Got a thick skin cos been wrong too many times! Just sent a message on bdev board saying why my idea is right and the market is wrong.
Could start a good argument / discussion. It is a general idea and I know I have bdev and tw reversed at one point but does not affect the basic message.
BoL

Hi Kitsz
Thanks for the reply.
Please don't get into a tis tisn't argument with sunset.
My point is all builders are massively undervalued and bdev no more than the others (except rdw and bwy who have even lower Per's).Don't know any other sector that has been affected so much by Brexit as builders - just look for lowest Per's.
"The question is what is the true value of the housing sector?" Quite agree!
Easiest way is to compare current Per's with Pre Brexit Per's - calc Brexit factor.
Not doing all the calcs again but pre Brexit Per's around 14 current psn 8.2, bdev 7.4, tw 7.3, bwy 6.4 & rdw 6.1. These numbers are automatically calculated by my system - could be wrong!
Assuming prices return to pre Brexit levels then a factor exists for each company ie psn = (14.0 - 8.2) / 8.2 * 100.
So Undervalued amount
psn 71%, bdev 89%, tw 92%, bwy 119% & rdw 130%,
Not going to happen tomorrow, But
The success of companies is based on supply / demand and whatever the result of Brexit, this will not change the lack of housing being built at the moment (and for about the next 10 years).
Have a look at last tw trading statement, and their predicted Divis (slightly slowed growth, but still increasing Eps). Psn did the same thing about 5 years ago and have outperformed their targets.
Compare this to current MrktCap of the companies (inferring about a 50% decline in Eps).
So either the market is right, or tw (and the brokers consensus).
No idea how long it will take to get to pre Brexit Per's, but quite happy picking up 10% + Divis in the mean time.
Imho rdw best bet cos lowest Per and biggest shareholder is the Chirman who set the company up.
Last point, by Divis and Per's, somebody compared them to junk bonds, but they hold more than 10% of their MrktCap in cash. Not going bust tomorrow, but could be bought by foreigners (like all our best Tec Stocks), and like psn and bwy did 10 years ago, they can just reduce building until it becomes profitable again (cos of cash).
I look forward to hearing from you and BoL