Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Kitsz
Still looking suspicious cos so new. Notice you have interests in cna so maybe not a new a renamed deramper as sunset suspects.
Personally I don't think bdev much more undervalued than tw even though bdev have far more cash, and bwy and rdw are more undervalued cos of lower Per's. Have a look at tw board in particular cos far more messages there. Psn is the biggest and has the most cash, so least undervalued.
My point is that all builders are massively undervalued - the Market believes a catastrophe is imminent, while builders calc supply / demand difference will continue for years - and so their profits, margins etc will increase as tw stated in last Rns.
Anyway, just compare numbers bdev to cna (Eps, EpsG, Margin, Cash, Divis) and decide for yourself, Is the market right or tw forecast (continued growth, maybe a little slower).
You should make a statement, regardless of sunset and are you invested here? You never answered my questions either! Look back at posts!
BoL

Hi Tom
All my Sp predictions are based on what I think the value of the company is. This takes no account of market sentiment, political disasters...
My belief is that things will eventually return to normal (PreBrexit levels) in which case the Sp will become what I predicted. The only question is how long will this take.
Worst possible case 10 years or more (suggested by Troubles), but can't believe that will happen (Gunpowder plot before that).
In the short term it is total madness that current Per is 8 ish when the company has > £500 Mn cash, and so are immune to any downturn - not that there is any sign of one!
BoL

Hi Troubles
Some time ago you mentioned building a reserve (as I also said) to counter further Brexit Disaster Days, but no cash left now (apart from bdev divi). Really should have planned better.
I cannot believe Sp can go any lower when they hold so much Cash, but been wrong many times!
A long time ago someone explained how the land bank is built into the accounts (can't remember details, but to prevent another almost total write off of value, like 10 years ago).

The point is, if house prices decrease by 35% what is the affect on builders? Land prices tumult (and so value of Land Bank - despite new calc method?), margins decrease a bit (from 20 to 30%, down to a paltry 15 to 25%) so Eps don't grow as quickly - but still growing!
If Margins fall any further just stop building houses until they are (very) profitable again.

Ultimately the Govt is reponsible entirely for this mess, and 2008, and over the last 40 years builders have had to adapt to this destructive force. Answer: Loads of Cash, very few employees.
BoL

ps Apologies
Should read £2,600 Mn Cash but makes % calc too difficult for me!

Hi all
I have not lost a penny cos I haven't sold any shares. Sp well down today for all builders, but this does not affect my calcs of what the Sp should be, to which they will eventually return,
3 biggest builders showing over 10% yield (so junk?) but have >£1,600 Mn Cash = about 10% Mrkt Cap, (let alone land banks and other assets).
Some Junk !
Is the Market right or tw (with their last forecast)?
2 daft quotes - "the market is always right" and "the market always overreacts",
Just shows how much the economists know cos they are mutually exclusive.
Best advice - forget about Sp and leave it all for a year, when I expect builders will be flying again (assuming Brexit sorted).
BoL

Hi divic
bkgh a very well run company that saw the downturn approaching and planned accordingly. Made a good few bob out of them before selling out Nov-14, last of my LSE shares.
Buys always = Sells, supply / demand reflected by Sp - same as house prices. I see not much to choose between the big builders (after ignoring limited prospects of LSE) and bdev / tw Sp almost mirror each other, (long term) despite tw ye Dec, bdev Jun.
Interesting you say the market does not believe tw can continue the special Divis (inferring if they did the Sp would be much higher), then who do you believe - the market or tw?
BoL

Hi spider
You paint a bleak picture for global economics, but still believe it is Brexit causing the problems for builders.
Hardly matters imho cos houses are built by British companies with British labour for British buyers using very little imported materials. How does Brexit (or global economics) affect supply / demand for housing in this country?
People used to invest in Utes given a downturn in the economy, but on any economic indicators Builders are far stronger than Utes, and given current Per's a bargain at these prices.
BoL

Sent this on bdev board a few days ago
Calculate potential value from Per = Sp / Eps.
All numbers from last results while Eps growing in all cases - so Per's now lower than stated.
Numbers from my system - could be out of date. Existing:
Comp, Sp, Eps, Per
bdev, 497, 65.1, 7.63
rdw, 540, 85.2, 6.73
bwy, 2836, 421, 6.74
psn, 2202, 243, 9.06
tw, 160, 17.9, 8.94
Traditional Per's for Ftse100 about 15 (builders around 14 cos used to be cyclical!)
So if they return to pre Brexit levels, Sp = Cur Price * 14 / Cur Per then:
bdev = 497 * 14 / 7.63 = 911
rdw, 540 * 14 / 6.73 = 1123
bwy, 2836 * 14 / 6.74 = 5894
psn, 2202 * 14 / 9.06 = 3402
tw, 160 * 14 / 8.94 = 251

Can't compare numbers directly cos of diffirent dates of Eps. Psn most cash, tw strategy statement, bdev just gone XDivDt... so you must DYOR.
Main point - All builders are massively undervalued. Don't know how long it will take for Per's to recover, but quite happy to pick up Divis in the meantime.
Lowest Per's are best value (bwy and rdw) but hold least cash.
Just need to hold and be patient.
BoL

Hi Owls
Bdev divi has been gradually increasing from about nil to cur value (about 10%) as has psn and tw, over last 5 years, as their growth, profits and cash soared. No reason to be sceptic and no need for large amount of cover when everything is roses.
I say again DYOR, but I believe builders OK for next 10 years, cos of supply / demand issue, (so should be regarded as a growth sector), and completely disagree with market sentiment.
Perception (even misconceived) drives the markets, and even I tried to anticipate drop in Sp due to Brexit uncertainty, by building a cash reserve (which I no longer have), and so was actually contributing to the sectors collapse Dog wagging its tail, or tail wagging the dog?
Look at brokers forecasts, are they all wrong. or is it the market?
Anyway, no need for this statement later today - they wouldn't make it if it was bad news. So looking for a big boost in sp later, and hopefully the rest of builders.
Always the optimist, but take no notice of me - are the Brokers correct or the market (which is wagging itself?)
BoL

Hi Aka
Hoping announcement tomorrow will be a dividend statement for next 5 years (like tw did a few months ago) thereby (almost) guaranteeing growth and increasing Divs over that time. This would also prove drop in Per unjustified and could encourage FI's to move back to builders.
Not going up to 922 tomorrow but that is my (justifiable) target when Brexit sorted. 1844 is justifiable if you believe builders are a growth stock, but can't see FI's going for that any time soon.
BoL

Confused myself again
Nocky curr posts 67 but stated as 57 in History.
Crow2 148 and 130.
JPlay 331 and 185.
Think time for them to make up some new names!

Just looked up History of:
Nocky member since 12/07/18, 57 Posts all on nano.
Crow2, 26/05/18, 57, all nano.
JPlay 16/01/15, 185, all nano.
Are these the only shares they hold? else what is their agenda?

Hi Aka
Sorry for your bad Day.
I am known as a ramper of builders (not particularly bdev), but the fundamentals for all are excellent.
Simplest calc Per = Eps / Sp = 514 / 66.1 = 7.8. (for bdev).
Note: 514 close price last week, Eps my calc of cur Eps based on last statement 65.1 (Jun-18) and projected 69.1 (Jun-19). Generally brokers forecasts increase as FinRes approach, so I expect 69.1 to increase. This also infers a growth rate of 6.14% +.
So if you ignore Brexit, China, Trump, Oil... (cos bdev still increasing profits), then why has bdev Per dropped from 14.0 (pre Berxit) to 7.8?
Or if bdev Per returns to pre Brexit levels, the Sp should become 514 * 14.0 / 7.8 = 922.
And (as my last message stated) if you regard builders as a growth industry (not cyclical - at least for next 10 years), you could justify a Per of 28.0 or more! Justifiable by Growth, Cash, Divis Margin...
Then 514 * 28.0 / 7.8 = 1844.
Just like DotCom bust when all our best Tec stocks got bought out by foreign competition, cos they realised how undervalued they were (Market is always right ?)
My advice: Sell home, fancy car and yacht and buy into builders!
Probably get into trouble for saying that, so most importantly DYOR, and I have no idea how long this recovery will take.
Divic seemed to blame me for ramping bdev, but he was looking at daily Sp movements. They do not affect real value, and the market has overresponded yet again to a hiccough that, as Mark said, will hardly effect builders, yet is the most effected sector.
All Imho of course and BoL - there could be many more Brexit disaster days!

Hi Mark
Love your "Incredible" statement, and completely agree.
Daft thought for the day, before bdev special RNS and bwy FinRes.
What is even more ridiculous is that as a growth industry (as opposed to cyclical) Per's should be far more than traditional values 14.0 and could double to 28.0, This doubles all my previous estimates.
Has anyone any idea how long this growth cycle will last? Been working for 10 years and see no reason why it should not go on for another 10.
So 40 Year cycle and I will have to get out of builders in 10 Years time. Quite happy picking up increased Divis (10% +) as Eps increase.
I read somewhere that shortage of labour was going to limit builders profitallity (as foreigners return home) but this only creates a bigger shortage of housing, and hence increased margins and Eps.
Ramping again I suppose but not pushing 1 company, but all Builders.
BoL

Hi Kitsz
MT/LT prospects are excellent as are all builders (except possibly LSE). I invest in 5 (bdev, rdw, bwy, psn and tw) and think there is not much between them. My method is to hold a base value in all and move a float depending on upcoming RNS's and XDivDt's (roughly 50% base value 50% Float). Usually float is in 2 or 3 companies but 4 times a year all out for a few weeks. Using this method I think return should be 10 to 20% better than LTBH. All gone SNAFU right now cos of Brexit.
Not saying bdev best value now, think bwy and rdw probably better value cos of lower Per's, but big 3 hold more cash. Somebody said crst has a Per of 5 so could be worth 3* cur Sp!
BoL

Hi Kitsz
I sent a message Fri 02:48 explaining why I thought all builders undervalued, please have a look - don't want to copy here cos a bit long. I list possible prices based on Per's.
The possible reason sunset thought you could be a new alias of (deramper) divic, is that it is your 1st post and you list global issues which have almost nothing to do with builders in this country.
The reason for builders massive profits, margins, divis and cash held is that demand is far greater than supply, so they can sell at almost whatever price they like, which is not going to change for a long time. Add to that the record low Per's and they are the bargain of the century (and probably last as well!)
Houses here are built by British companies using British labour for British buyers using very little imported materials. So far more insular than any other sector - yet most affected by Brexit.
Both my daughters buying a house now and don't think they have considered strength of US$, interest rates, China or price of oil, at all. Inflation is a bonus that my kids probably won't benefit from, like I did - house cost about £12k a long time ago.
I welcome you to this board and look forward to a reply on the points I have made.
BoL

By using Last In First Out method with a base value and a float, you always Hold your original shares. My oldest bdev shares were bought 13/08/14 at 350 making my average price 515 so breaking even (but losing a lot on last Buys - av 559).
Well up on completed bdev deals and not going to think about selling until 600 + so looks like I am stuck here for a while. Just need patience. BoL

Hi Graham
Just sent a post on bdev board stating how undervalued builders are. What does it matter (Dow, market in Singapore... ) to House builders in this Country. You are probably right - going south again tomorrow - just annoys me that these things affect us so much. Not going to affect supply / demand for houses for about 5 years minimum, and in the mean time just happy picking up 10% + Divis.
My system tells me to top up in rdw now, but don't like selling anything. Daft thing is when I need a cash reserve (to top up), I never seem to have one.
BoL

Hi Bob6
Calculating the drop means nothing. So Calc potential value from Per = Sp / Eps.
All numbers from last results while Eps growing in all cases - so Per's now lower than stated.
Numbers from my system - could be out of date. Existing:
Comp, Sp, Eps, Per
bdev, 497, 65.1, 7.63
rdw, 540, 85.2, 6.73
bwy, 2836, 421, 6.74
psn, 2202, 243, 9.06
tw, 160, 17.9, 8.94
Traditional Per's for Ftse100 about 15 (builders around 14 cos used to be cyclical!)
So if they return to pre Brexit levels, Sp = Cur Price * 14 / Cur Per then:
bdev = 497 * 14 / 7.63 = 911
rdw, 540 * 14 / 6.73 = 1123
bwy, 2836 * 14 / 6.74 = 5894
psn, 2202 * 14 / 9.06 = 3402
tw, 160 * 14 / 8.94 = 251

Can't compare numbers directly cos of diffirent dates of Eps. Psn most cash, tw strategy statement, bdev just gone XDivDt... so you must DYOR.
Main point - All builders are massively undervalued. Don't know how long it will take for Per's to recover, but quite happy to pick up Divis in the meantime.
BoL

Hi Sunset
Life is a gamble, and right now I think chances of No Deal Brexit is decreasing - so many things being delayed causing new idea BrexIn. So could be at the low point now, in which case things could start going North again.
I bought bwy cos my system told me to, but if more bad news their (hopefully) excellent results will probably be ignored, but if mood changes (sentiment re Brexit) all builders will go up and bwy results will probably be ignored again.
So my system isn't working. Got a big float in bdev which I was told to sell and now and a big float in bwy which system tells me to sell within 1 month. System says top up rdw and I might do that, but Sp for builders moving anywhere without reason now.
All is Madness but Buffet and Slater said identify value to invest, and Builders have got to be the best.
BoL