Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Divic
Well I've done it now - bdev holding > 3* tw. The advantage of using a float system is you never sell your original shares (using last in first out). Just sold some rdw (now showing 30% profit) and psn (35% profit).
bdev down to 7% profit, but waiting for take off - fasten your seat belts!
BoL

Hi MaxM
To me Cadmium free means Cadmium free ie nil parts per Zillion.
If Cadmium mixed with something else is not dangerous that is a separate issue, and should be declared as Cadmium X non degradable alloy, or something (if it is non degradable?) Forgotten what Rohs stands for - not Very dangerous? Interesting discussion, but I think only one winner in the longer term.
Just hope for a bit of good news with FinRes next month.
BoL

Ps Apologies.
Should read 14/09/17, 19/10/17.

Last year bdev sp went from 584 on 14/09/18 to 695 (or 705!) on 19/10/18 (XDivDt 20/10/17), prev week 13/10/17 681, so still increasing right up to last week.
So, don't bale out too soon. Of course doesn't mean same thing will happen this year.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Take a look at psn and bwy - much less volatile than tw and bdev, Both easily survived banking crisis 10 years ago and both have performed well over last few years. Also rdw, though they only just survived bank crisis.
Relative price given Sp 100 on 04/01/13 then cur Price:
rdw 350.2, psn 298.4, bwy 276.2, bdev 246.4, tw 230.5.
Volatility of sp partly due to having 1 large Divi and 1 small one, (then Fatcats buy the Divi) but tw increasing Int far more than Spec (for 2019 onwards - so my 20 * rule will no longer work).
Suggest you hold bdev close to 11/10/18 (XDivDt) cos I think a good return there.
I don't touch Aims - too exciting for me!
BoL

Hi May65
Hope you have a look at bdev Board, where I try to explain an exit strategy.
We might not agree on Brexit but it sure is messing things up at the moment.
Of course I accept (and respect) your opinion, just we differ there. I won't try to convince you to remain in the upcoming referendum, but I do think if this happens you have been cheated by the Politicians again.
BoL

Hi divic, sunset
Still hold tw but hold about 3 times more by value in bdev, due to my float system.
Working late again have and now convinced myself bdev will reach 700+ (maybe 792, though only after Brexit sorted). I think Deutsche Bank calcs numbers from Accounts and 792 is a very reasonable price now if you ignore Brexit effect.
My current policy is to turn Float into cash as we muddle thru Brexit, cos don't see many opportunities (with builders) until next year. Daftest thing of all is me going back to Cash supports Brexit panic effect, when I think it will make no difference anyway!
General idea for bdev, Hold until 10/10/18, then sell 75% and get 6% divi (on 25%) then sell that when bdev price returns to Max pre XDivDt, so 6% (or whatever) on top of difference of buy/sell price. Barring disasters that should not take long. Trouble is with Brexit who knows what will happen?
BoL

Hi divic,
Don't think about selling, hang on at least to XDivDt.
Just checked my calcs and found a couple of errors - see message on tw Board.
Believe 704 possible and looking for 680 again, but no need to sell while price going up, ie no target.
Going to increase float in bdev on Monday.
BoL

Hi cm45
Need a new system, all a waste of skins and don't think TM wants a deal anyway.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Just been checking my numbers cos somebody said bdev got to 705 before XDivDt 26/10/17.
It could have cos I only record Friday closing prices which was 695 on 20/10/17.
Also Max pre XDivDt 27/10/16 was 503 but this was 02/09/16, around time of FinRes (07/09/16), but price going south after that.
Substituting those numbers and back to 20 * then:
XFnDivDt 27/10/16, Divi 24.7 * 20 = 494. Mx pre XDivDt 503
XFnDivDt 26/10/17, Divi 34.4 * 20 = 688. Mx pre XDivDt 695 (or 705!)
XFnDivDt 11/10/18, Divi 35.2 * 20 = 704. Cur Price 556 = 26.6% increase (potentially).
In both cases above 20 * divi is less than Mx pre XDivDt. (Try 21 * ?)
On bdev Board I said I will be happy with 640, which is still 15.1% increase (so happy!) but better to hold out as long as possible.
It is true that bdev slumped after XDivDt but this was cos of latest Brexit panic - most builders Sp fell at that time (by a similar amount).
Don't think sentiment will effect Sp much cos Sp driven by (Divi) cash at this time.
Only issue is how long do you have to hold after Divi if you take it.
I bought at 559 so divi is 6.3%, then only have to wait for Sp to return to 559 and 6,3% for free.
BoL and hope this makes sense, cos I'm confusing myself again.

Hi humdrum
My idea is sell float just before XDivDt (11/10/18) and invest in bwy before FinRes (16/10/18). Already have some float in bwy (best performing builder up 3.6% this week).
Think (hope) nose dive already built into price and can't go any lower, but been wrong there too many times.
BoL

I said 650 achievable but will be happy with a more realistic 640.

Hi May65
Seems to me loads of people (Caney, May...) are being declared as totally useless, but I think they have their own agenda. Carney's advice to Govt should have been confidential but was leaked (accidentally?)
More worrying is May's attitude. Did she ever have any intention of making a Deal? Main negotiators resigned, making Boris foreign Secretary, negotiating trade deals in Africa - just after taking personal control (which is not allowed by EU law).
Given these actions either we will get a very good Deal, or no Deal at all.
If No Deal Brexit I think this will result in a referendum, Leave or Remain in.
Vote will probably be remain then as you were, back to square 1 and she has accomplished what John Major couldn't.
That is what I voted for, but if this is what happens I certainly won't have time to celebrate (Making gunpowder!)
Like you I now have 3* value in bdev than tw (for XDivDt surge).
BoL

Apologies, Meant Hi mushroom

Hi mashroom
Good to see increase in interest/posts on this board. Nice to see that on bwy, psn and rdw.
tw gets most posts so discussion on other builders often found there, so worth looking at (even if you have no intention of investing there).
BoL

Hi Divic
You obviously don't agree with my short term forecast of 669 (11/10/18), which should be before any Deal/No Deal decided. I never do stop losses - can't believe it will go down that far anyway.
Just watch for a change in direction of sp or hold on until 8th 9th October. Don't believe it will reach 669 but interesting to see how close it gets. I'll be very happy with 650 which I think is achievable. Then sell and buy bwy just before FinRes. (PreFin excellent).
BoL

Private sale (cos type O) so probably to 1 buyer. Wonder who that was?

Hi Tom
Good to see you happy about investing in bdev.
20 * rule
XSpDivDt 01/06/17, Divi 9.2 * 20 = 184. Mx pre XDivDt 185
XSpDivDt 31/05/18, Divi 10.4 * 20 = 208. Mx pre XDivDt 203
Unfortunately 20 times rule for tw won't work anymore cos they are increasing Int Div far more than special.
But still should work for bdev, using factor 19 so:
XFnDivDt 27/10/16, Divi 24.7 * 19 = 469. Mx pre XDivDt 457
XFnDivDt 26/10/17, Divi 34.4 * 19 = 654. Mx pre XDivDt 656
XFnDivDt 11/10/18, Divi 35.2 * 19 = 669. Cur Price 555 = 21% increase (potentially).
The return here is far better than timing buys before RNS's (my original system) now use both methods, but in the future 19 * rule will only work for bdev.
BoL

Ps
Bdev net cash £791 Mn from FinRes

Hi shareminator
You paint a bleak picture, so I will try to cheer you up!
Recession is possible but does not (significantly) effect Supply / demand,
High Street stores sales don't matter to builders.
Imported material costs hardly matter cos very small part of cost price of house.
Rate rise possible but only by a small amount (while Carney in charge).
Bdev not reliant on debt - in fact holds massive amount of cash.
Fewer people will settle here - maybe but I expect net migration here to remain high - also there are 5 million British expats abroad, many of whom want to return (cos of £ devaluing).
Anyway, with a Per about 8.0 already built into price.
Driver is supply / demand which isn't going to change for years and allow margin to remain around 17% while eps growth remains +ve (7% or more).
Don't think there is much to choose between builders (the Big five Ntionals), rdw and bwy best value by Per, psn worst, bdev and tw between them, but psn has most cash, rdw least - even bwy now has £100 mn Cash.
So my float is in bdev (XDivDt 11/10/18 surge) and bwy (FinRes 16/10/18).
BoL