Member Info for Nige_W

Hi TillyTish - Thought for the Day.
I am sure Cambium free is the future, but who else can make it without infringing nano Ip.
Besides Display, Lighting, Medical use, Power generation... there is Sensors.
Vision 1
All cars in London have collision avoidance software and always stay 3 car lengths away from each other - speed automatically controlled. On Auto Control (compulsory) a junction has no traffic lights, cos everything misses everyone else - filter between the gaps.
Just call taxi, say where you want to go and you will be there before you know it, cos no Gridlock. No need for taxi driver cos autonomous electric cars. Auto-taxi will either wait for you and park up, or take next fare. Paid for by your phone automatically.
So everyone as happy as sandbags!
Vision 2 to follow.
Involves Big US Corp collaborating with CIA and DoD - Big Brother is watching!
Conclusion
Nano as safe as houses - development outside US with serious backing - not just $1,000 Bn.
Hope this message gets some serious or silly replies.
BoL

Hi Tom
No real good news reported by nano - just more delays, hence price drop.
Some good posts by NigWit explaining how such leading edge Tech often suffers delays on the road to the market.
Nothing has fundamentally changed, so the potential remains - just need to be patient,
My new policy is to wait for nano to reach 50 then sell Isa float in psn and tw and buy nano, making Isa 75% nano.
If it then takes off then no tax issues.
Imho No Deal Brexit now built in to builders prices. Tuesday (21/08/18) psn Interims could be a turning point for builders Sp. Other than that I can't see any significant change to builders until Brexit Deal Done or Referendum or Election. Again just need to be patient.
The frustrating thing to me is whether we stay in EU or Exit (with or without a Deal) will make very little difference to housing shortage and so builders (improving) results. People move cos of change in circumstances. Me and partner moving up north to be close to Daughter and Grand Daughter (1st move), Daughter moving from rented to house cos of her Daughter, other Daughter moving from rented to house with new partner.
BoL and have a great w/e

Ps
The clever investor goes for undervalued companies and has to wait for that value to be realised.
This is very tedious if 3 years!

Hi Troubles
History is meaningless now. Uncertainty caused by Brexit is driving all prices down (particularly Builders!)
All I am saying is sp will reflect profit via Per. This might not happen if No Deal Brexit as our Economy collapses. Even if the Economy collapses, it will lead to a referendum or new election - followed by a return to normal.
That is why I say up to 3 years for this to be resolved.
Still working late and graphs continually show what a disaster Brexit is (or perceived to be), while I think Builders will be affected far less than any other sector.
Very tempted to sell Isa float in builders now to buy nano. If nano takes off, big profits there are tax free.
BoL

Hi Jilise
On patent issues I know that arm bought a company Ip (which had gone broke) mainly to prevent any future copyright issues (by copyright specialist lawyers) for far more than the value of nano - nano £100 Mn Comp, arm £15 Bn Comp.
To put it another way nano Ip, is probably worth many times more than it's Mrkt Cap alone, and they are not frightened by infringements of copyright, when they have US partner (worth $1,000 Bn?)
Just need to be patient - so hold.
If you want to diversify a bit have a look at psn - IntRes coming up in next few days, very low Per, Divis almost 10%, still growing Eps by about 5% pa and stacks of cash. Very safe option.
BoL

Hi PCla
3600 based on 50% > current sp. Unfortunately psn is least undervalued builder (average 50% uv) cos they have the most cash. Expect Eps to be about 235 giving Per 10.5 and Per return to 14 means sp of 2443 * 14 / 10.5 = 3257.
3257 + 10% (2 Years of 5% growth ie after 3 years) = 3583 - so not quite 3600 after 3 years but not far off.
All depends on Brexit being sorted resulting in return of Per to 14, and continued 5% growth pa.
BoL

Hi Terrace
I can see the Yield as Divis paid into my account. I won't see my investment until I sell (2 to 3 years time when I expect the price to be 3600+).
Incidentally my av price for psn is 2216 so yield is already over 10%.
BoL

Hi WiganW
What evidence do you have to justify top of cycle? If for 10 years we have been building too few houses the shortfall must be getting bigger.
PreInt from psn suggested everything about 5% up, if that is the case no sign of top of cycle, if better than that might make people re-evaluate No Deal Brexit (supposed) disaster. If decrease in Eps,,, could confirm disaster, but that is built into Sp now (so can't go any lower ???).
At about 2450 psn Yield approaching 10% (235). Surely there is a limit - if Sp 235 then yield is 100% ! which is obviously madness.
BoL

Hi terrace
Still haven't got my new Company Refs, so can't quote irrefutable numbers. For this reason I can only talk generally and express my opinions.
All builders are reporting (close to?) record earnings, margin, divis, cash, pbt... yet sp well down from 1 year ago.
Hi cm45
Good point 'efficiency of markets - hence overvalued.' As I have said before, if the market was right there would be no share gurus who invest in undervalued companies, and sell when they reach true value.
During DotCom bust foreign companies bought all our best Tech companies (cos undervalued - market was wrong).
The only justification for record profits and record low Per's is a disaster is on the way ie No Deal Brexit.
The effect of No Deal Brexit is not easy to quantify, but there are some indicators.
No effect yet, cos builders are all reporting robust demand and forward sales - demand still far greater than supply.
This is not going to change overnight even if No Deal Brexit.
Conclusion.
Market has totally overreacted (as usual!), leading to builders being hugely undervalued.
Hi Tom
Nano results basically saying delays again. Great opportunity to get back in.
BoL

Hi Owls
Bill Gates would not be richest man in the world if he diversified.
On verge of a deal that will make my Isa 75% nano (that is a bit brave!)
Man or Mouse, He who Dares...
BoL

Hi Owls
Two baskets (5 builders and nano). Have a look at nano - about to take off Imho.
BoL

Hi Bamps
As I said psn want to get R & S handed over to the council, so it must be the council who are causing the hold up (for whatever reason). The management company psn set up is probably the only way they can close the site down.
Come across this twice before, in both cases a company went bust, one the landowner and the other the road surfacing company, Sure it will be sorted soon and residents will not pay anything.
BoL

Of almost £1m at a higher price (47) than current. Lombard again?

Hi Bamps
Builders want to get Roads and Sewers adopted by the council as quickly as possible, cos it saves them money and they can't close the site down until everything settled.
Hi WiganW
As you say Politicians have their own agenda and Boris in particular. Ultimately it was politicians that caused the housing shortage to begin with.
Press and politicians in collusion (or worse!) in blaming everyone else for the issues they have caused.

Hi Pokerchips
I realise I can register for free but won't cos don't I want masses more communications.
At least you get it for free unlike the Times. A brief summary would be nice.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Could you give some more details on that article like why has the council refused to take over the roads and sewers.
Not a lot psn can do about it if council refuses handover.
BoL

Hi ddubya
Is there any way of finding out who Lombard sold those shares to (and who owns the institution that bought them)?
Could be some British offshore set up, in which case impossible no doubt.
I can understand the reason for secrecy (to get a time lead over competitors) but how long do you need to keep this secret? On verge of production now, then all you have to do is find out where that production is going, Shouldn't be difficult to figure out partner from that, so I am hoping all will be revealed soon, but happy to wait a few months if need be.
Last point - to produce cars is a massive investment (even for Apple - and take years for a return), while to sell maybe £1,000 equipment to every car made in the world is far more sensible - all as you inferred.
BoL

HiTroubles
Don't want to meet any goon mongers - sounds painful. Still waiting for Company Refs which should confirm by belief that bwy and particularly rdw have performed worse than tw over last 12 months.
Reason is FI's moving to Coys with cash cos of panic about No Deal Brexit and psn, tw and bdev have far more cash than bwy and rdw, while bwy have just increased cash from about £16m to £100m, so I expect bwy sp to improve over next few weeks.
Hi Calisto
Totally agree with you that Brexit (Deal or no Deal) will have very little affect on builders results, and I am a Remainer.
My own conspiracy theory. No Brexit Deal is made leading to a referendum - accept No Deal Brexit or not (and stay in EU). That is what most Politicians want anyway, and gets rid of loads of issues (Scotland who want to remain and will no doubt vote for independence if we leave, and Irish border issue ...)
No doubt there will be an election before or after referendum, which is why I say could take up to 3 years to sort.
Looked up psn PreInt and they were saying everything up about 5%. I am hoping they will do better than that and IntRes will be better than expected leading to a surge in builders and a lifting in sentiment, as people realise Brexit (even if it happens) will have little affect on builders.
BoL

Hi Mars1
Totally agree, and a milestone payment won't be paid until that mile has been reached, (similar to stage payments in building), so in theory could be 10 years or more, (doubt it though!)
The partner was stated as being a Large US Corp, though the payments are petty cash to most US Corp's.
Looks like Lombard sale to Apple didn't go through, but who can say!
Just to annoy NigWit, I am putting a speculative strong buy on this post, cos I think things are finally moving.
BoL

Hi divic
Good post. I only invest in Builders and nano and there is no way I am selling builders right now without buying same value in another builder. Not in them for short term. Simply by Per tw are worth around 250 now (which is what they would be if it wasn't for Brexit shambles).
I think it could take up to 3 years for sp to recover to a reasonable level >300 then (when Brexit sorted), but to be (over?) optimistic again psn IntRes due around 21/08/18 and if good could raise tw sp.
More importantly, negative sentiment might be lifted a bit (as people realise Brexit - Deal or no Deal - is having almost no affect on builders results). So hopefully will start a gradual rerating of builders.
BoL