Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Troubles
My example was the Martians landed and wipe out half the population, decreasing demand for houses, but tw has so much cash they just .stop building until they go away, then business as usual.
Do my thoughts make this more likely to happen (Schrodinger's Cat)? Certainly on the right board to find out.
Hope nobody reads this post cos the more people who think about it, the more likely the Martians will come!
As you can see I'm a bit confused by Quantum Mechanics.
Great to see you back on tw.
BoL

Hi Manofleisure
Speculative approach. Buy now if you think partner is going to be revealed soon. When Sp doubled sell and watch sp fall to 1.5 * now (about 72), then buy back.
Hi Troubles
Think that is basically what you said ages ago.
BoL

Hi NigWit
Certainly you are correct to say it is better to base investment strategy on evidence as opposed to speculation.
I mainly invest in builders who produce about 4 RNS's per year which affect their Sp. My basic idea is to buy before the RNS if I think the RNS will be good (increasing Sp), so I also study Historical Sp movement after RNS.
You could say this is evidence based research, but I also try to get a gut feeling for the shares (speculative).
I hold 5 builders and move a float between them.
Unfortunately builders all messed by Brexit now.
Hi Troubles
Still in Tw? You are being missed on that board. I sent a message about expect the unexpected there hoping for some amusing comments, but didn't get any.
BoL

Hi NigWit
Just my speculation that partner is Apple, who are doing loads of research on sensors (using QDots), to be used in loads of different apps. This will become an important part of their future, so they cannot afford to let another company take control of nano.
UK leads the world in nano tech which (hopefully) is why they don't simply buy nano - why fix it is it isn't bust?
If it is Apple (or whoever) buying stock from Lombard, I can't see how they can keep this quiet for long, so we might find out who the partner is soon.
Can't see Lombard helping out a shorter, nor selling to multiple institutions.
BoL

Hi NigWit
I never even mentioned Apple. The reason Dow, Merck and Wah Hong have not, could be cos they've been told not to. Who can tell these companies what (not) to do.
More big after orders sells going thru. (Lombard again?).
BoL

If Lombard sold them who bought them?

Funny trades going on at the moment, are these corrections of the original big trade, or new.
If I was the boss of the US Corp I would want a sizable stock holding in Nano, and some representation in the management of the company.
Maybe the US Corp is going to show its colours soon!
BoL

Hi all
I read bwy PreFin which I thought was excellent. Thanks Terrace.
Critically 'Should lead to another year of significant earnings growth.'
6.9% increase in sales. 9.4% increase in sale price, 16% increase in revenue, 7% increase in reservations,
but a decrease in margin of 0.3% to a paltry 22%! Shock horror - going bust next week.
But Net cash up to £99 Mn from £16 Mn, this is the important bit for the doom-mongers - bwy becoming safe cos of cash.
Then they spoil it all with:
'Notwithstanding the more moderate rate of house price growth, cost increases across the Group are 
still being offset by house price gains. Nevertheless, the net inflationary enhancement to the margin,
which has augmented results over recent years, is beginning to abate.' 
Ahhhrgh. Margin might decrease to 21.7% next year! Gotta Sell.
Hi divic
These results are better than bdev and tw Imho, and confirm the idea that builders still going well, yet you proclaim a decrease in tw sales of 10% and decrease of sales price of 2%.
Builders are still growing, only the rate of growth might be slowing a little, cos of No Deal Brexit?
Maybe price did drop 4% early on, but clawed most of it back. Great Company!
Where else can you get such increases in Eps, Cash and Divis.
BoL

Hi cm45
The reason I chose Big Utes for comparison is because that is about the only sector where you can get comparable divis.
Still haven't got my new Company Refs, which publish all the critical numbers (like per, pbt, eps...) which for most builders have been steadily improving for the last 10 years. This is the reason I think my numbers are more likely to be correct than yours, cos fundamentally nothing has changed, so the same growth should still apply.
Current slump is due to (unjustified) new surge of panic over No Brexit Deal.
BoL

Ps
I averaged down in nano cos their product is in or close to production, but not in agma (graphene). Wonder material which does everything but costs more than gold to produce. If and when they can produce it cheaply, it will take off, in the mean time, it will have specialist uses so demand will still be there.
Good idea for nano to buy them now for IP, and centralise all the experts. Nano MrkyCap £107 Mn, agma £7 Mn. No doubt petty cash to nano US partner / sponsor. Hard to believe it remains a secret - must be a fate worse than death to reveal who it is!

Hi Owls
Like Tom said he's been thru that as well, and so have I (DotCom Bust).
You make the excellent point about admitting being wrong and bailing out before an unfortunate decision turns into a disaster. But no disaster if you just hold.
My point is that in general, builders are massively undervalued, so you could just hold until Brexit disaster sorted (for about 3 years when tw should be about 300), or you can trade as normal and accept the losses - good for tax!
My system is telling me to sell Float in tw, psn and rdw (31/08/18), before reinvesting Float in psn and bwy (07/09/18) and bdev (14/09/18). If my system is right I should not have lost as much (paper or not) as doing nothing.
Hoping nano will see me thru these difficult times, like arm did with start of Brexit debacle.
No doubt if No Deal Brexit builders Sp will fall even more, which is most frustrating cos they should be affected less than any other sector, because of the 'spurious' reason of supply and demand?
BoL

Hi cm45
If memory serves completions down due to poor weather. No reason to assume 10% decrease in sales next year. Also why have you assumed a decrease in house price of 2%? Try your calcs again assuming a 10% increase in sales and increase in house price of 5% + a margin increase of 2%. Pbt before tax will be > £1 Bn.
Given that your numbers are correct, OMG tw only making £650 M, they are bound to go bust (in around 100 years).
Then have a look at Pbt of Big Utes, and compare Pbt to MktCap (which is Per) then compare debt.
Begs the question Why?
BoL

Hi cm45
Who are expecting lower completions? Builders are not as stated by bdev, bwy and tw with psn and rdw to follow.
Maybe Lse builders (bkgh, crst, csp & bvs) are, but I ignore them. Maybe Brokers predicting gloom again, but I ignore them as well (except Deutsche bank!)
BoL

Just gone down to 46.75, so much for that theory! Good job I'm not a day trader.

I am not a day trader, but noticed last trade at 47.95 automatic (no doubt bought at best) is a big increase on prev buys (47), which indicates shares for sale drying up.
So Sp only going one way right now (hopefully!)

ps
Bet we get a cryptic message from Troubles re unexpected issues.
Btw av price nano 43 trading account and 38 Isa - so very happy.

Hi Tom
Very aware of the surge, for no reason? Something is afoot, and I repeat you have not missed the boat.
BoL

Hi cm45
All things being equal Builders Per should be around 13, but obviously they are not because of Brexit debacle,
Built into the Sp is the expected collapse in housing sales resulting in massive fall in Eps and profit, which I simply don't believe will happen.
There are many reasons for this.
People buy houses for different reasons, mainly change of circumstance and this will continue regardless of EU membership. So I don't expect a change in demand for housing, which will remain far greater than supply. This is the reason for the great margins and growth of earnings - the key indicators of the health of the Sector (which is far better than any other sector).
Were eps or margin decreasing this would indicate builders are reaching the top of the cycle - but they are not and generally increasing - so the numbers indicate no issues.
Not only that, say demand for housing is 1000 per year and only 500 are built - shortfall 500, next year you build 550 now shortfall is 1450, This has been happening for the last 10 years, so shortfall will remain for the foreseeable!
Mortgages still easy to get, no banking crisis imminent, low interest rates set to continue, no issues economically.
Expect the unexpected. The Martians land and wipe out half the population, but tw has £N million in the bank, so they stop building until the Martians leave, Then business as usual (as proved by psn and bwy during the banking crisis).
Look forward to hearing some more unexpected issues which could affect builders.
BoL

Hi Bamps and Graham
You could be right and there will be a last minute deal, but I think Politicians are playing a fast one.
If no Brexit deal there must be a new referendum, to accept or reject it (which will probably result in us staying in EU), but that is what they all wanted to begin with.
Lost major players in the negotiations, cos they didn't want them to succeed?
Anyway, builders Sp won't improve (and could get worse short term, until resolved). But does that matter if Divis, Eps and Cash are increasing, as long as you don't sell.
Even if No Deal Brexit it will take about 5 years to affect Builders profitability (easily quantified by EpsG and Margin), so no issues now, and medium term Builders are massively undervalued. Just need to be patient.
Just cannot believe Builders Per's, relative to other Sectors cos Imho, No Deal Brexit should affect Builders far less than other Sectors.
BoL

Hi BtB
The timing must be perfect to get that result, £1 Bn coy in 3 - 5 years time, my point is that using this back tracking method you can calculate the true value of the company now (according to your Inputs).
Or to put it another way if your estimate of the value is less than current price you should sell. Best possible case nano undervalued by a factor of 6 - depending on the numbers you put in (if sensible) maybe factor of 3, so don't buy now if price > 150.
Hi Max
Arm was bought out with £15 Bn cash by a Jap Bank. Nano Mrkt Cap £107 M. Is the US major Corp (Apple? worth $1 Tn), going to let nano go bust? I think not.
BoL