Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Bamps
Brexit may take years to unravel (whatever that means) but numbers are fixed by Accountants. ie Yield 10% + cos EpsG forecast at 21% next year (increasing Yield no doubt) and also cos of a massive £512 Mn cash in bank, while Margin 19% and increasing. Company in trouble indicated by Per of 8.3 - I think not.
Where else can you find these numbers, or ever seen them before? See Jako's post.
This is not a sector that has issues with Brexit. Key to Builders success is Supply/Demand (any industry?), and this is what is critical to their continued success. I believe supply will not exceed demand in the foreseeable future (let alone 10 Years) cos there are about 5 million XPats living abroad, a high proportion of which will be paid in £'s and many will be forced Home as £ decreases in relative value.
So on top of current Immigrants, we will have N% XPats coming back as well.
Tw sp does not reflect the value of the company, but only a matter of time before FatCats realise this, and sp will ravel up again (don't know how long it will take though).
Sp could go lower short term, but will bounce back after Deal, so I will just hold, cos sitting on a gold mine, like Tom.
Hi Graham
Who's share forecast page? I say 234.98 by April 19, bet I'm closer. All about Brexit which doesn't matter anyway.
My system says sp 261 Dec-18, Mrkt Cap £8,541 - but it doesn't know about Brexit C**p.
Just be patient & BoL

Hi Aylesbury
Normally I would say get in now cos the price can't get any lower, but been wrong too many times!
I think upcoming low point will be just before Brexit Deal or not long after No Deal Brexit so I would wait til then.
Don' bother with setting a price - all about timing. Whatever happens I think there is an upside of about 50% for National Builders.
BoL

Hi divic
If you look at late trades all buys but for every buy there must be 1 or more sells. Not worth looking at.
BoL

Hi WiganW
I ignore bkgh but had a quick look at Cairn. Price in Euros (but don't think that a problem with Hsbc).
Looks very interesting and will research them - Thanks.
BoL

Hi divic
Buys always = Sells. Can't buy something if it's not for sale, so not worth watching.
If Sp was 100 05/01/18 (Start of No Deal Slump) then relative price now:
psn 87.6, rdw 82.5, bdev 82.4,bwy 79.2 and tw 79.1.
So more or less following each other apart from psn which has far more cash.
More interesting to me is Per's (from most to least undervalued)
rdw 6.7, bwy 6.9, bdev 8.2, tw 8.3 and psn 9.3 (Pre Brexit 13 to 15)
and Margin
bdev 16.7, rdw 17.0, tw 19.6, psn 29.0, bwy 37.3. (Need to check bwy!)
Conclusion bwy probably best value (even if you ignore margin) cos now hold £100 Mn cash, but Divi only about 5% as is rdw, while rest about 10%.
Just need to be patient.
BoL

Rogue traders (Gleeson?) means that most FI's changed the way they supervise their Traders, so decreasing risk.
So any potential risk (Brexit) has a big effect on the companies that are regarded as being effected by Brexit.
Result - the Market used to overreact to a piece of bad news, but now they massively overreact to it.
Results over the last 2 years have proved Builders are not affected by Brexit, which I believe will remain the case whatever happens.
I voted remain and think that is what will happen eventually. Can't see a deal and TM in Africa (making Trade Deals??? - not allowed) when she is in control of Brexit? She is laughing at EU cos she doesn't want a deal - then referendum / election and back to square 1.
Just no way of knowing where all this is going, but FI's scared S******s, so good opportunity, since builders Sp (unjustifiably) affected more than any other sector.
Anyone noticed agma up about 20% in last few days?
BoL

Hi Crow2
I would suggest if these products are using Cadmium, they will shortly be replaced by Cadmium free.
Not a tech wizard but can't imagine it should be too difficult, ie replace 1 layer with another, tuning issues?
Hi TillyTish
I feel sure we will get an excellent reply from NigWit, who will totally agree with you. ie Hidden sale potential.

Anybody noticed 20% increase in agma in last few days. No doubt a brilliant product, but as far as I can see no breakthrough in production methods (needs to be able to produce more, cheaply) then the World.
I still hold a few shares there and if a fundamental change will average down (Sp 55, Av 148).
Think nano should buy them.
BoL

Hi Pokerchips
Meant to reply to your post earlier, Germany/EU got it right - we've got it wrong yet again.
Reposting your message so people don't have to scroll back to get it.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/28/call-to-stop-landowners-making-huge-profits-from-speculation
Trouble is far too much greed, vested interests in this country to let it happen.
Not good for builders cos land banks would devalue big time, but it is the most logical solution.
What is the % age cost of the land to your total house cost? Another reason why I say increase in material costs are almost insignificant (particularly in LSE. which is why I don't touch those builders),
Can't see it happening here cos of lobbyists, but TM in control now so maybe it will! Then I take my hat off to her and say she is a great PM.
BoL

Lots of interesting news, but what has caused the surge?
We all know that graphene cures the common cold and prevents baldness but the breakthru is when they can mass produce it cheaply. Then the World.
Nice to see the surge but not topping up until production sorted.
BoL

Hi H-hi
You express your opinions - no facts to justify them.
EpsG increasing, margin increasing all important numbers at record highs,
Supply far less than demand which will remain the case for years, Just read XPats coming home now cos can't afford to live in Spain... as £ falls relative to Euro.
As for Govt won't be able to help builders they are the worst of enemies!
BoL
ps Was it just me frozen out (Server Error) yet loads of messages on nano board.

Hi Troubles
Sp Dec-15 197, Eps 14.9
Sp Now 168, Eps 20.2 ie 36% inc in profits yet 15% decrease in Sp.
Entirely due to Brexit, current slump due to growing belief in No Deal Brexit.
10% Yield, Eps Growth forecast for Dec-18 21.4%, £512 Mn cash in Bank.
To sum up tw (and all builders) incredibly undervalued, so this is an opportunity.
General idea that BoD should do something to help Sp. What? (That is legal).
Imho the best investment strategy is to identify undervalued companies, invest in them and sell when true value realised.
Again I say Rejoice - not going to see this sort of value again.
Hi divic
Margin now almost 20% - hardly a charity giving away houses!
Note to self
Drop in Sp could have been anticipated so should have got out before drop then pile in at low point.
Even better strategy!
BoL

Hi Tom
Not saying 262 but 216, 6 months after Deal.
Been far too optimistic in the past but I think 216 is a bit pessimistic, given Deal.
Very tempted to move float from psn and tw to bwy and rdw.
BoL

Hi Tom
As you say it is all speculative, but can still make a plan.
Think a deal unlikely, but if there is one that is great news for builders (unless bad deal!) Might alleviate some of the unjustified panic and we'll see a gradual increase in Per's.
Simple rule Justifiable Price = Cur Price * PreBrexit Per / Cur Per then:
psn 2477 * 14 / 9.5 = 3650
tw 171 * 13 / 8.5 = 262
bdev 542 * 13 / 8.2 = 854
bwy 2925 * 12 / 6.9 = 5077
rdw 547 * 11 / 6.7 = 894
This assumes full recovery to Pre Brexit Per's which will take some time ie not the day after the Deal, and there probably won't be a full recovery. ie Best possible case.
To be a bit more realistic I hope for about half the increase 6 months after the Deal.
bwy and rdw look particularly good value.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Reckon laser guided 2,000 pounder (or 4) from 60,000 ft will do it - no need for fuses!
BoL

Hi Bamps
If/when No Brexit Deal confirmed there is little doubt Sp will plummet again and since no immediate upside in view (apart from possibly rdw Fin Res), could be a good time to offload some shares to buy back after the announcement.
Imho this will lead to a new referendum and we will vote to remain in - 1 year solution, but could be more (cos of renegotiations). Possibly a surge in Sp after vote followed by a fall until negs completed.
All too speculative so my idea remains when in doubt do noubt. Stupid language as well!.
If TM gets things right this is what I expect, if somebody challenges her leadership before referendum it could go wrong but I think BJ has shot himself in the foot too many times and we need somebody more like Obama than Trump - just don't know where we will find one in the main parties.
So I will vote for you . BoL

Hi Bamps
Brexit or remain is divisive but the curious thing is it all started because of differences in the Conservative party, (which the Labour party also has). This is reflected in all groups ie impossible to predict Brexiter / Remainer by age, gender, wealth, location...
Hopefully every cloud... and some good will come out of it - no idea what (new Gunpowder plot?)
BoL

Hi Bamps
I agree that Brexit could lead to higher fuel costs (cos priced in $) so bulk materials could increase in price, as well as imported materials, but what is the % cost of materials to total house cost? I won't attempt to breakdown the cost into labour, plant, materials..., but even if you double material cost it won't increase the cost of the house much. Since they can sell everything they build they can just increase the price by that amount - same for all builders.
Don't deny possible change in demand to Social housing either, but who is going to build them?
Banks not lending caused the last debacle, but hopefully better prepared for this now.
Interesting to note you say 'Banks not lending' as opposed to Building Societies, and that builders hold so much cash now (opportunity to use that cash?)
Still seems to me that builders hold all the Aces.
Hi Troubles
What is normal? Who can say, but if Per returns to (normal?) Pre Brexit levels that is the basis of my 50% increase.
Only thing for sure is this is a total mess caused by politicians (yet again!)
BoL

Hi HeresHopin
50% inc in 6 months is best possible result which I am not expecting, and that 50% is projected price from (return to) pre Brexit Per and Current Eps. Nice round number but there are variations Psn least undervalued (cos most cash) followed by tw, bdev and bwy (£100 Mn cash now). to most undervalued rdw (least cash - FinRes around 04/09/18).
Hi Troubles
My main point is drop in Sp unjustified because almost no affect on builders results at all, and as long as supply less than demand this will continue regardless of Deal, No Deal or Remain In.
Put my money of Remain In, probably 1 year until dust settles.
Even if No Deal Brexit sentiment should improve as people realise no affect on builders results, that is when I say 3 years for recovery - could take longer.
BoL

Hi All
Builders Issues.
No idea of impact, uncertainty, affect on wages, UK growth and builders first to be affected.

First of all, Imho Bad Deal Exit impossible due to May, which means No Deal Brexit more likely, or best case Deal Done - increasing builders by about 50% in 6 months.

Assuming worst possible case No Deal Brexit stands, then
£ collapses relative to Euro and $ increasing imported material costs - but very little imported materials, even if French companies own concrete makers... still made in UK (employing UK workers). Imported materials is a tiny % age of total cost of house.
Demand for houses slumps. Most people move because of change in circumstances, which is not affected by EU status.
Affect on wages. No affect at all because based on £. If you earn £50k and you want to buy a house £250k the proportion remains the same - only issue is it will attract more foreigners to Gazump you, bad for you but good for builders.
UK economy shrinks - same applies as above.
Builders first to be affected. Used to be the case but not now.
The situation is totally different from 10 Years ago cos demand far greater than supply, due entirely to the banking crisis created by the Govt.
So many builders lost their jobs that the numbers cannot be made up without importing foreign labour, (Govt trying to reduce numbers).
Also lack of apprenticeships (but builder's don't employ bricklayers/joiners... so why should they train them?)

The driver for builders is the difference between supply and demand and there is no sign of supply catching up with demand - hence builders recording record earnings, profits, cash... year after year.
It will take many years before supply/demand issue is sorted.
It is now over 2 years since Brexit vote (when builders sp price decreased by about 50%) so the uncertainty created should have had some effect on builders by now - but it hasn't!
Not only that but last results (psn) Pbt and Eps increased by 13% and margin increased from 27.6% to 29.7%, Divs almost 10% and an embarrassing amount of cash in bank. The company is thriving.

Latest fall in Sp due to panic caused by No Deal Brexit, but I believe this is what Govt wants so they can call a referendum, Leave with No Deal or Remain In.
If vote Remain In things return to normal, if vote Leave anyway things will return to normal (but will take a lot longer!)
Whatever happens the Sp will increase by 50% - just a matter of time - so sit back enjoy Divis (which should increase each year by Eps growth ie Cur Yield + 13% for psn, then over 10%),
and we will all live happily ever after.

These numbers apply to national builders (psn, tw, bdev, bwy and rdw), not Lse.
BoL

Hi divic
Difference between 168 and 172 is so small that (for me) it is hardly worth bothering with.
Get the timing wrong and you have to make trades (and costs) which force you to average down.
Very dangerous, if No Deal Brexit announced!
When in Doubt do Nowt - NigRule 1.
What you infer is that Day Traders are creating the market (and this might be true).
I believe tw worth about 300 in 6 months or 3 years time (then about 360 cos +2 years growth at 10%).
BoL