Member Info for Nige_W

Say nano price 50 and in 3 years time 500.
To keep my job with FI I need 20% pa growth.
Whai is max price I can pay for nano now?
290, +20%
348, 58, Yr 1
418, 70, Yr 2
502, 84, Yr 3
So to keep my job I must not pay more than 290 for nano shares, (rather pay 50!)
Numbers for illustration only, so do your own calcs.
BoL

Hi Graham
No deal Brexit looking more likely than ever (May ultimatum - accept Cheuers agreement or no Deal!) This must lead to a second referendum and / or new election, and Sp won't completely recover until this is resolved.
No idea how long this will take.
Any thoughts on strategy, or just hold. Could decrease CGT Liab by selling at a loss but I have very little Liab anyway (this year).
BoL

Hi Calisto
The fundamental driver of Sp (for biulders) is the difference between supply and demand. Since the shortfall has been increasing we are getting further away from the peak of the cycle. This is reflected by the numbers (all at record highs and increasing).
The only things deceasing are Per and Peg (at record lows) indicating fantastic value.
Only a matter of time before Sp will bounce back (50%+), but maybe 2+ years.
Time sit back, do nowt and find some good books to read and watch (10%+) Divis rolling in.
Or
Be Proactive!
Strat 1. Buy Divi with a Float then then sell shares and buy next Divi
Issue Sp might go down by more than Divi so:
Strat 2. Buy shares before Divi and sell just before Divi. Hopefully Sp wil have gone up as Divi approaches.
Note
Only 4 Divis worth chasing - bdev Final and Special (about the same time I think), psn Interim and Final and tw Special.
Look forward to comments on Strategy.
BoL

Hi BtB
I only invest in Builders and Nano, cos Imho both massively undervalued. The interesting thing is they are undervalued in different ways. Nano find it difficult to show much revenue - but bound to follow. Builders have massive revenue, increasing Eps, Divis, Margins and Cash, but sentiment is so bad that that Per's at record lows!
Seems to me that FatCats can't see beyond their noses and only plan 2 days ahead. Are they all Day Traders?
Whatever happens with Brexit, where do you think Nano and Builders will be in 2 or 3 Years time?
I think something is happening now, big rise this week can hardly be put down to Sony Tv, so hopefully we will have lift off next week.
BoL

Hi Tom
Not really made any profit cos not bought/sold anything (ie on Paper).
Incidentally my system is telling me to do nothing until 31/08/18 then sell float in tw, rdw and psn, Trouble is no doubt I will still be losing money on them, so might just hold.

ps Just at end not a cryptic message - don't know how it got there!

Hi Tom
Good results from bdev, bwy and tw yet Sp still going south (since last year). I'm not going to say Sp can't go any lower again cos been proved wrong too many times! There must be some sort of limit (based on Divis and Cash) but given up trying to guess what it is.
I am convinced this is all due to anticipated no deal Brexit and the sp is fantastic value now, so just going to hold. Think it was WiganW who said could take 12 to 18 months to be sorted - think it could take longer than that. If no deal Brexit there must be a new referendum and possibly a new election - 2 years+?
Anyway on a happier note, I bought 2017 Isa in Nov and 2018 in May - all builders + Nano. Builders all down about 14% but nano up 23% so actually in profit and nano almost 50% of Isa now.
Same thing in trading account - made a small profit this week.
nano up almost 13% this week, but you have Not missed the boat, it has a long voyage ahead.
BoL

Just

Going to get Coy Refs in next couple of days. I will use numbers from that.

Hi Bamps
Don't know nothin about Gan. GVC, but good luck with them. Looking forward to psn Interims, which I hope will boost all builders.
All my money in builders except my last Tech holding in nano.
Hi Tom
Did you see nano up 8.1% this week. Looks like Sony going to release top of range Tv with nanodots, 45.3 now and about to take off.
BoL

Great to see you back Tom
Got a plan for your Itv money. Psn will produce their Interims about 21st, (biggest, richest builder). and rdw Finals about 4th September, both worth a small investment Imho.
Of the other big 5, bwy results good, bdev better than expected and tw good (in line with Xpect.)
These 3 all said demand remains robust, despite Brexit.
The interesting thing is that biggest drop in Sp are bwy and rdw (which now have the lowest Per's - best value?)
They also have the lowest Yield and the least cash (either of which could explain their low Per's).
Once Brexit sorted Per should return to normal (prev Brexit levels) which infers a 50%+ increase in Sp.
No idea how long this will take, I think (worst possible case) if no Brexit deal there must (at least) be a 2nd referendum.
My only issue with rdw is the big chief (Steve Morgan) must be getting old now, and don't know if they have anyone of his calibre to take over (so maybe 2/3 psn, 1/3 rdw).
Don't have time right now, but will try to put some numbers together to explain this better.
If psn results good it might change market sentiment into realising Brexit panic unfounded, does supply / demand for housing change depending on if we are in EU?
BoL

Polite message to Admin.

Hi PCla
Can only think he has been banned. If that is the case I propose he should be reinstated, so my next post is to get him reinstated. Just reply to the new thread to support it, or approve it. Life and soul of this board, so we need him back. I might also be banned for this post!
BoL

Hi divic
You always seem so sad. Remember this, if you haven't sold any of your holdings, you haven't lost anything.
Tomorrow is a new day and everything looks good. I expect Eps, margin, divis and net cash to all continue growing. Only thing decreasing is Per, making tw an even greater bargain.
I am optimistic cos my computer is telling me to sell the house and buy builders (and nano).
BoL

Ps
Interim results from psn expected around 21/08/18 and if tw and psn results good, it could form a turning point for builders Sp. The current pessimism will have been proven to be unjustified.

Hi divic
I agree a nice little surge today would be more encouraging for the results tomorrow, but IMHO tw would not have released their last Rns if there was any sign of a downturn, and bdev reported better than expected last 6 months, so I expect (hope) tw will also produce excellent results. Expect much more than 2p increase.
Could be wrong again.
BoL

Hi Jarcon
I think Brexit with no deal built into Sp, which must lead to 2nd referendum and/or new election. FI's could think projected specials can't be achieved given No Deal Brexit, but I don't think No Deal Brexit will affect Supply/Demand for housing (at least in short term).
Hi divic
You could be right (market got wise to Divis), but cash is cash and when this debacle finally sorted you still have the cash. Maybe you will have to wait 5 years to get your money back, but still getting 10%+
Whichever way you play it, sell just before Divi, or Hold long term I wish you all luck.
Big 3 can't go bust (too much cash), EPS continually growing (for next 5 Years) and great Divis (10%+).
All of us down on value since late last year, which is a bit depressing, but you can't find value like this in any other sector. Just need patience.

Hi Jakobowski
My system tells me to buy before end of week - I'll see price on Friday and decide then.
Agree, don't like idea of borrowing to invest, so probably won't. Probably best to just be patient.
BoL

Hi WiganW
These trades are becoming more and more often and their value is increasing. At least it looks good for tw, but where are they being traded? Correction for Shorters?
It must be obvious to anyone now that builders are massively undervalued (given a Gcse in Arithmetic).
My System tells me to buy psn. tw and rdw before end of month and I am tempted to borrow some money from HSBC to do this.
Even if no Brexit deal, how can this affect supply/demand for housing. Eps will keep on growing, allowing bigger Divis, How much Yield is needed to justify an increase Sp to a reasonable level?
I think Sp is being manipulated again (maybe by Shorter's who will lose a lot of money), but again I say all things messed up by Brexit.
Still believe Sp 300+ in 3 years time (and Shirley Brexit, Election … sorted by then!)
BoL

Hi DiviC
Working late again - last 5 years Sp movement graphs for 5 main Builders (psn, tw, bdev, bwy & rdw).
Just to contradict myself, I said I won't sell tw until Sp reaches av float (208), but if in short term my system tells me sell tw and buy psn (or whichever company) because it will outperform tw - it has to be better to sell tw at a loss, than hold.
The timing of the movement is critical, in my system this is based on based on RNS's and Divis (and my gut feeling for the Companies).
Observation. When sentiment -ve Buy (maybe 4 weeks) before XDivDt, and sell just before XDivdt (after hopefully an increase in Sp to reflect Divi), cos Sp could well plummet after XDivDt If sentiment +ve do the opposite.
RNS's. Study Sp movement after RNS's. Generally with builders there are 4 peaks and troughs per year. while some make no difference and can be ignored.
Trouble is all is SNAFU right now cos of Brexit. How does this affect Supply/Demand for housing?
Completely agree it is most frustrating, and Per's of less than 9 for growth companies is madness!
If the market was right, Great investors would make no money!
BoL

Hi WiganW
Totally agree Tin Hat time, don't know how long it will last. My point is that if Eps still growing, the value of the company is still growing. At some point all issues will be sorted and tw (and rest of builders) Per's will return to 13 (or more when FI's realise it is a growth industry - not cyclical). When will supply catch up with demand?
To bail out of tw now and buy bdev seems a doubtful to me - missed the boat on bdev while tw and psn will probably report much better results. £130M write down meant almost nothing to tw and getting rid of an employee who was not up to the job is probably a good move. Don't know why you are so bovvered about London - 4% T/O?
DiviC
Don't know what your average price for tw is. Your yield is Tot divis per year / your average price. Capital Cost does not matter until you sell. My average price of Float is 208 so I won't sell for less than that - then all 10% pa Divis for free. Only issue I have is to hold these shares longer than I meant to. In a prev message I think I calcd tw was worth 264 (but not including increase in Eps growth from now until sorted ie 264 + 3 years * 5% = 300+).
Just need to be patient.
BoL