Member Info for Nige_W

Hi WiganW
Can't find any numbers tw produce that I don't like, especially since there last announcement, which clearly indicates they expect continued growth. Of course they could be wrong, but since such a large gap exists between supply and demand, I am sure tw will sell everything they can build for many years to come.
Just noticed late trades far more than there ever used to be and much more buys than sells, (same for psn but more sells than buys for bdev). Doesn't ever seem to effect next day opening prices though.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Just sold out of bkgh and sge, bought bdev, bwy and tw reducing tw av float from 208 to 191. Did that before I saw your message on bwy, which is a bit disappointing. Incidentally bwy my most profitable share (but held them the longest).
Tom said tw interims 31/07/18 and hopefully a correction in sp after that. Don't know if I should hold out for 210 or run at 193. Either way nice big Divi on the way.
BoL

Hi Spring
Countrywide and Trad estate agents have obviously been hit by online systems - more worrying is the drop in price of bwy homes you mentioned - but I have no doubt bwy still maintaining 22.3% margin.
BoL

Hi WiganW
I know there is no direct relation between Sp and Eps. What I was inferring was if you double profit this justifies doubling Sp. Don't know how this can be manipulated, Sp known and fixed Eps known and fixed (in accounts). The small dip in EpsG Y/e 2017 was I think due to one off provision for lease hold,
Underlying business still growing (in 2017), but with brokers forecasts predicting 26.6% increase in Eps this year (before Strategy RNS) I think 230 in a years time is conservative.
The reason for my optimism is that I believe all builders are hugely undervalued because of Brexit, and this will eventually resolve itself - don't know how long it will take though.
Worst possible case - No Brexit deal, but I think this will effect other sectors more than builders - so why are builders taking the biggest hit.
BoL

Hi Tom
Bamps is buying some for me at 9p. Just noticed Rio can also buy them for 9p. About time they got this site sorted.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Wot have you done to the system? You are the only person who can buy at 9p, everybody else 181.1.
Could you buy 100,000 for me?
BoL

Hi Bamps
Even Bash might buy some at 9, = 200% yield.
System in total collapse - price 181.1 now but at top of page 178.25. Have to update from ADVFN, cos can' trust this site.
BoL

Hi dividendchaser
I see no reason why Sp should not follow Eps and Brokers consensus forecast for 2018 Eps growth is 26.6%, so even if sp remains equally undervalues as today, Sp should be todays price (LSE says 178, ADVFN says 181?) + 26.6% so on 21/06/19 around 228. This does not include the capital market day update so is 228+, and expecting a surge after Interims 31/07/18.
Going to sell bkgh and sge on Monday to invest in builders bringing down my average prices. Done nicely with both of them (over 60% up on remaining shares and nice big lump on completed deals).
Hi Bamps
Still rewriting my system - down to 76% builder 23% everything else, but when I sell sge heading back towards 80%.
If by mid July not much change in Sp, I will think of using some of my Hsbc credit facility.
BoL

Hi HeresHopin
You make good points. Historically most Ftse100 coys Per around 15, builders 13 ie 2 points behind, because of cyclical nature, but now around 8 (cos of Brexit). In a previous post I said I thought 12 would be a reasonable per for builders hence 50% undervalued.
I don't agree builders are cyclical any more. The downturns in previous cycles were caused by increases in interest rates, banking crisis or economic downturns. Can't see interest rates increasing much in the foreseeable (not controlled by Govt any more) while another baking crisis improbable after safeguards created. Leaving economic downturn. This is dependant entirely on the mess Govt makes of Brexit Deal - so not very promising.
However, this won't have much effect until housing supply catches up with demand and despite what Govt says this won't happen for a long time. After 10 years of consistent growth, I expect another 10+ years of growth before supply catches up with demand. Don't think you can class an industry as cyclical if the cycle is 20 years+.
Hi Dividendchaser
Psn laid out a long term dividend plan about 5 years ago (like tw capital markets day) and have exceeded their targets. This does not mean to say tw will also exceed their targets, but I am sure they have researched this carefully, and until they are proved wrong, I am happy to go along with their predictions.
No concerns over the company when it holds so much Cash.
Hi Bamps
You have lost no money unless you sell, and why would anyone sell at a loss when getting 10%+ divis. If I had to put all my money in 1 company I would go for psn, second choice tw, followed by bwy and bdev.
BoL
Btw Anybody have trouble signing in here yesterday?

Hi HeresHopin
Bkgh and crst both LSE so not comparable to National Builders. Don't even watch mcs - can't remember why I rejected them. The main point is builders were already hugely undervalued before this drop. Some sort of sanity should return after tw interims 31/07/18.
BoL

Hi Rawson
Completely agree with you. I am also all in (except for Sage and bkgh which I intend to sell). Sorely tempted to use some of my HSBC credit (up to 50% Port), to buy some right now.
BoL

Hi Tom Still rewriting my system - major bits just about working, but didn't know if Interims were estimated or actual date. Need to color code them all - real pain! BoL

Hi Tom I think Interims due 01/08/18, so could well see a surge a week or 2 before that. Numbers justify Sp, so correction after that. (yield 11% …) Price driven lower by opinions and sentiment (unjustifiably Imho). Btw Builders Per used to be around 13 (pre Brexit - say 12 cos of Brexit) So justifiable price = Sp * 12/8 or Sp * 1.5. Coy Refs for Per (May numbers - since when prices have fallen a lot driving Per even lower) Psn 10.80, tw 9.18, bdev 8.09, bwy 7.56 and rdw 7.26 BoL

Hi Tom Builders were already undervalued, now they are massively undervalued - hence the 2 articles. Average Per about 15, Builders about 8 justifying prices of Sp = Sp * 15/8 or Sp * 1.88. Just have to be patient. BoL

Apologies Try not to re repeat myself myself next time

Hi Burgers Once you buy shares you do not have to hold on to them, or to put it another way it's a moveable feast. I hold shares in bkgh (up 60.3% on remaining shares), which I have been of selling for a while and now think it is time to get out completely. Same with sge (74.7% up). In both cases I have made a decent profit on completed deals. At the moment think I will just hold as cash cos everything is seriously -ve at the moment. Don't think tw, psn, bdev, bwy and rdw can go down much more, but would prefer to see some positive trend before buying. Fwiw My system is telling me to sell psn 24/08/18, buy back 07/09/18 along with along with bwy and bdev 14/09/18. It usually does better than me! Think I'll have a Chinese tonight, hope for a bounce back for bkgh and sge before selling next week. BoL BoL

Hi TommyR EpsG and Margin from Company Refs (May issue before RNS announcement - so probably underestimate). Psn is a great company and my biggest investment. Also bwy, rdw and bdev look very good value at the moment. BoL

Hi TommyR Proj Eps growth >26%, Margin >17%, Cash >£500m, Yield >10%, while Per <9. This is madness. So I completely agree with you. They will recover without a doubt, but don't know how long this will take. BoL

Hi Graham Don't watch McCarthy and to what extent this has affected builders I don't know (or Ftse/trade wars). Only bkgh down less that tw this week (1.1%), tw 1.6%. Most others down 2% or more. The more it goes down the more the perspective yield becomes and must be over 10% by now. You would think there is a limit to how high yield can get, before people start buying again. That is why I say the price can hardly drop any more, but could be wrong again! BoL

Hi Bamps At least tw has a pension fund like Maxwell's paper (even if he used it to invest in his own company). Much better than the Govt, which does not have a pension fund at all, (at least this means they don't need to employ actuaries - otherwise we would have another 10,000 people in the Govt actuary department). We now have about 1 employee in the MOD for every 2 people in the armed forces, and in the forces far more Chiefs than Indians. Same with all Govt departments, let alone Quangos, and the press seems to support these lies. People living longer, needing more care, drugs too expensive, inability to train enough Doctors/Nurses … End of Rant. BoL Pigface Perhaps it is better to be boring than offensive.