Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Tom On my 40 odd watchlist only nano up today - still think it's a great investment. Reckon 100 in 9 months or so. My average 40 so about 10% up, might buy some more when 20% up, but already 17% of port - too many eggs? BoL

Hi Tom I said Divi alone justifies 208 and certainly doesn't look possible now, my average is 208 and not selling below 210, so will have to hold (then divi for free). The good thing is the company is rock solid (cash held) and great divis, so don't mind holding. Also unlike other companies (nano), you know the investment is completely safe - so no worries. BoL

Hi Farmer I am fine - just turned 65 and cashed in a pension which I need to invest. I agree 250 possible near term (6 months or so), but I think it depends on what sort of mess Govt makes of Brexit. The totally ridiculous thing to me is why are builders affected more by Brexit than any other sector. Banks seem immune regardless that they could have to relocate, move staff � at massive cost - during which time no doubt, they will lose a lot of good people. Builders (or their subcontractors) don't import much, unlike most of industry. Housing market collapse doesn't bovver tw cos loads of cash now. Don't touch London/SE builders (like bvs) except bkgh from which I have done nicely, but I think maybe time to sell out of them as well - decreasing divis. I take no notice at all of analysts/experts - they have their own agenda. Any bunch of people who can have such different ides (apparently!) are either reading different books, or are corrupt. I don't even bother trying to figure out if there is one that is any good. BoL

Hi Johnson In announcing a long term Divi strategy (even if specials, though I don't think this should make any difference), PR was just following the strategy of psn, and their Sp flew cos they achieved their objectives, leading to the big chiefs �100M bonus. If tw don't achieve their objectives they will have issues (and the Sp), but I think the promise will mean a quick recovery of Sp after XDivDt, (unlike the 7 weeks it took last year, which was an unnaturally long time - don't know why), 4 weeks common but usually just 1 week (based on the limited data I set up). Need to carefully watch future RNS's to see if they justify his optimism. So my idea is to hold - to get divi for free I need 210, maybe 5 weeks, then my system has new ideas for me! BoL

Hi all, That's what the share trades looks like right now, doesn't mean much cos buys could be sells � Not much sp movement. BoL

Hi Tom Maybe the length of time the recovery took last year has put the Fatcats off. Just have to hold until it reaches 210 which is a bit of an embuggerance. Less float to play with. Topped up Isa float by �2.5 yesterday bringing average float down to 206, so that's the last I'll see of that for a while. Not bovvered, interesting to see where it ends up 31/05/18. BoL and have a great weekend.

Hi Rio Barclays was bailed out by Kuwait or somewhere. BoL

Hi Bamps No doubt you will see my message to Johnson, Hsbc are the bees knees for me, but don't believe their yield can compare with psn, tw and bdev, while Hsbc might be growing the builders are growing faster. And now with TM in control and about to double house building or whatever, we can hardly go wrong !? Despite how good Hsbc are, look at historical price movement and compare that with builders. Only (big) issue now is Brexit and if it all goes wrong this will affect Hsbc more than builders, cos they will have to build a new HQ in Frankfurt (or wherever) and while � drops, even more foreigners will buy new homes here. Builders are now safe as houses, cos unlike 10 years ago they have loads of cash. Last point tw worth 300 now imho, but until Brexit sorted we are not going to see that. Anyway, very happy with divis, why sell when making 7% yield with tw or 9% with psn. Also the yield depends on the date you bought your shares - my yield for psn much > 9%. BoL

Hi Johnson Totally agree Hsbc great, not many people say that about the bank they are with. I thought First Direct was originally part of Hsbc (another bank nobody can criticise), is it separate now? I think Hsbc was the only bank in UK that did not need bailing out when Govt created the banking crisis. Wow - you have borrowed �30k to invest - that is far braver than me. I really do wish you the best of luck, and think builders Sp cannot go any lower. I have about 80% in builders - the other 20% in tech stocks, mainly nano - worth a look I think.

Hi Nelson Agree very low - Divi 10.4 * 20 = 208 which I think absolute minimum by 31/0518. Could be wrong again tho. Just topped up again in Isa. BoL

Hi Johnson I think the best way is Bed and Isa. Why not phone them 03456 080848, you will need your sort code, account no and that 6 digit number you enter on your banking sign on. Probably ask you a simple question or two like date of birth. They are very good and knowledgeable. Like to know how you get on cos I intend to set up a trading a/c and Isa for partner. BoL

Hi Johnson Sold shares 2 days ago which appeared in uninvested Trading account today, transferred that to uninvested Isa account and bought the shares back today, so not Bed and Isa. My understanding is you Bed and Isa by declaring the shares you want to move to Isa (say 10,000 tw shares @ 200) they are sold (subject to Cgt) the money is transferred to Isa uninvested cash account and 10,000 tw shares bought back into Isa. The advantage is no delay so buy price should be almost the same as sell price (less spread and dealing cost). I was not buying back the same number of shares as I was selling cos put 2500 into tw float and 3500 into psn float, but could have done it by adjusting shares after Bed and Isa. Alternatively I could have simply transferred �20k from trading a/c to Isa uninvested a/c using hsbc credit facility. Then buy/sell shares at the same time costing 2 days interest at 0.55% per month = next to nowt. Bed and Isa best, but all done now. BoL

Hi Tom Just done the ISA for this year - all went well and mightily impressed with HSBC. As promised the money appeared in uninvested cash, transferred to Isa uninvested cash and bought the shares in Isa - took no more han 30 minutes and prices more or less the same as when I sold them, so lost nothing while in limbo. BoL

Hi Jakob This was no more than a very poor illustration of the potential. There are many issues. First of all and probably most importantly my system only increased profit from 42% to 65% or 23% over Ltbh, in a very good year. At the moment we are miles behind where I expected to be (based on last year) so don't expect growth to be anywhere near 42% this year more 25%. If my system can turn 25% into 48% that is great but it won't cos done retrospectively. Secondly 267% you mention (for bkgh) was based on Ltbh of �20k / 6 = �3,333 so profit of 51% between those dates should be correct, but when init investment is �1,000 and you put a float into that Coy the profit is divided by 1,000 not 3,333, so correct in Maths but wrong really. Thirdly my base and float were different from the set up I gave you anyway, and all based on the idea of this year would reflect last - which it isn't. I don't think any of the above disclaimers change the basic idea that companies that do well, will probably keep on doing well, and am I bovvered if I am wrong when I'm getting these Divis. Just a matter of watching the company's carefully, and feeling for them. With that idea in mind I think bwy worth investing in and tw and psn for Divi's. At the moment I am selling out after psn and tw Divi's and when rdw turns into profit (float cost.633 Sp 623 - was 646 11/05/18 but missed that). Fwiw my plan says buy into bkgh 02/06/18 (doubtful cos of London Slump) and bwy (temporarily undervalued imo), and psn 23/06/18 (after XDivDt 14/06/18 but before PreInt (14/07/18). No way you will make 267% in a year with any builders, but you could on nano !!! BoL

Hi Jakob The builders I have are those I listed - bkgh, bdev, bwy, psn, rdw and tw. Float in psn, tw (for Divis) and rdw at the moment. Plan says I should be totally out now but doesn't take Divi's into account. It also says I should have sold rdw w/e 27/04/18. Also, I have a much bigger base value in psn than the others followed by rdw and bwy, so I am not religiously following my plan. According to my system if you invested �1k in each of those companies and just held them (Long term buy hold) you would have made (from 01/01/17 to 01/01/18): 51% on bkgh, 49% on rdw, 47% on bwy, 44% on psn, 33% on bdev and 26% on tw, average 42%. Applying my system in retrospect 267% on psn, 234% on bkgh, 218% on bdev, 218% on rdw, 171% on bwy and 66% on tw, average 65%. The high %ages due to lower base values. I expect to make somewhere between 42 and 65% using my system this year, preferrably closer to 65% but of course builders not doing nearly as well this year so all numbers are probably down. None of these numbers include Divi's. Thinking of adding Countryside, Ibstock, Tyman and Ashtead, and getting rid of bkgh (London/Se slump). BoL

Thanks Johnson Great post - will read it in detail in a moment. BoL

Hi Jakob My Float system. Assume you have �20k to invest Buy Base value of �1k in 6 Comps, bkgh, bdev, bwy, psn, rdw and tw = �6k. Leaving �14k Float. Depending on upcoming RNS's and Divi's buy say �6k, �5k and �3k Float in companies above. Then if invested �6k in tw @ 200 (300 shares) and price goes up to 300 sell �6k in tw (150 shares) leaving 150 shares. You now have a base value of �1k (50 shares) + 150 = 200 @ 300 = �6k base value and still �14k Float. Repeat for other 2 floats. Round numbers for illustration. The object is to sell one float just after peak and buy next float at trough. Builders seem to have 4 peaks and 4 troughs per year, which unfortunately do not coincide nicely. My current plan has 4 periods where it says no float, ie float entirely cash, which might not be a bad thing. Still in process of development in Excel and Visual Basic. BoL

Hi Rawson I have a trading A/c with HSBC and am going to set up a Trading A/c and Isa for my partner with them. Do you know if we pay tax on Isa Divis and how interest is charged on borrowed money facility? ie if I set up an Isa with credit from trading account - sell shares 2 days later to cover cost while buying at the same time shares in Isa, is that only 2 days interest. BoL

Hi Jakob Depends on your buy price. My Buy price 208 and wont sell (prior 31/05) for less that 220. Think that is unrealistic now so need to hold for Divi and wait for recovery to about 210 before selling. Then Divi for free. If Sp much higher than buy price sell some or maybe all, and buy some back later depending on drop. I use a float system and my base value is about 163 while the float is 208. Whatever happens I will still hold my base value. Last RNS very positive so could be a quick return to Max pre XDivDt. Hope this makes sense. BoL

Hi Johnson Great to ask a little question and have so much helpful response. Agree with you about the trading reserve, great facility means I could probably set up the Isa with cash by using it, rather than selling shares and waiting 2 days. This means the Bed and Isa idea maybe of little relevance, so they don't do it. I understand your idea of using their money to buy shares at rock bottom prices (when all in) with such low interest rates, but reluctant to do that - I work on the principle of if you can't afford it, Don't buy it. Hi Bamps Don't touch Aim myself - seen too many disasters, and very happy with Hsbc. BoL Hi Bash Just noticed under the message I am writing. "Important Message from the Financial Conduct Authority Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse. This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison. If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse click here." You had better watch out - you could be reported! And not very funny anyway.