Member Info for Nige_W

Thanks Bamps Just had a look at the late Deals again, and on +ve side a sea of blue for tw (unlike the rest of builders)! One thing that bothers me a bit, is the frequency and volumes of these trades seem to be increasing. So who makes these trades? ie The -ve side, are PI being bypassed again to suit the FatCats? On the other hand, does it really matter. Value will be realised (eventually) otherwise the likes of Warren Buffet would have done no better than us. So the Market is always wrong! You could assume tw will be far higher on opening today if those numbers are to be believed, but then who knows? BoL

Hi Tom System here is Snafu as usual - no closing prices on W/e date! Pleased you are looking at psn, (even more solid than tw, Imho). Have a look at bwy and rdw. Then there is bdev and bkgh. Personally I am not too confident about bkgh cos mainly London based - if Brexit has an affect, it will be felt there more than the Shires. The big competitor to Geo Wimpey was always bdev, so I realise you could find it impossible to invest in them. Did you notice a previous poster had shares in Taylor Woodrow - was that Woodrow Wilson previously? While Barrett used to be Greensitt and Barrett. Anyway, names don't matter, performance does and I am sure any investment in psn will be good for you. BoL ,

Hi Bamps Certainly is for a Private Investor. Don't know about Fund Managers ... BoL

Hi Tom, Troubles Just been entering CoyRefs data for builders. There has been another mini-slump (not as bad as Brexit), but noticeable because Per/Peg dropping again. Recovery overdue, and a very late Post New Year slump. But psn results should fix that soon (biggest builder). It is as though another Brexit hiccough, but it seems to me that things are making progress. Anyway, Market sentiment for builders = nil, didn't think it can get lower than that, (Sp supported by Divis only, leading to NigRule17) but as Sp decreases - market sentiment must go -ve. What difference does Brexit make to psn, when they make an embarrassing margin of 28%, 26% increase in Eps ... With�1.3Bn Cash, they're not going bust any time soon! The fools holding the cash are proving they just don't know what they are doing again (DotCom bust, a Jap company just bought Arm, cos it was amazingly cheap). All in all it's just another brick in the wall! BoL

Don't think psn too bovvered. From FinRes: "Excellent performance in 2017 with another year of disciplined high quality growth Legal completions increased by 872 new homes to 16,043 (2016: 15,171) and average selling price increased by 3.2% to �213,321 (2016: �206,765) Revenue for the year up 9% to �3.42bn (2016: �3.14bn) Operating margin* increased to 28.2% (2016: 24.8%); with second half improvement to 28.8% 25% increase in underlying profit before tax* to �977.1m (2016: �782.8m) 26% increase in underlying basic earnings per share* to 258.6p (2016: 205.6p) 18% increase in cash generation (pre capital returns) to �806m (2016: �681m) 51.5% return on average capital employed**, an increase of 31% (2016: 39.4%) 17,301 plots of land acquired in the year, with 8,296 plots successfully converted from the Group's strategic land portfolio Net cash of �1,303m at 31 December 2017 (2016: �913m) 10% increase in post tax return on equity to 26.5% (2016: 24.1%) 7.5% increase in forward sales at �2.03bn (2017: �1.89bn) Interim and Final dividends declared of 125p and 110p per share respectively"Excellent performance continues: Successfully delivering growth - new home legal completions ahead by over 70% since launch of strategy in 2012 Successfully returning surplus capital - �1,488m, or �4.85 per share, of excess capital returned since launch of plan in 2012 The Group's continued outperformance and generation of surplus capital in 2017 has enabled a further increase in the Capital Return Plan to be announced today: Additional Capital Return payments of 125 pence per share to be made each year for the next three years ending in 2020, increasing the total value of the Plan by 375 pence per share to �13.00 per share These new additional returns will be paid as an interim dividend in late March/early April each year. The first of these additional payments will be made on 29 March 2018 as an interim dividend in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2017, totalling c. �390m In addition, the Board is pleased to confirm that the scheduled capital return of 110 pence per share, or c. �340m, will be paid, subject to shareholder approval, on 2 July 2018 as a final dividend in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2017 Following this further improvement of the payment schedule the total value of the Capital Return Plan is estimated to be c. �4.1 billion or �13.00 per share, over double the original plan value of �6.20 per share" I like �1.3Bn cash and guaranteed �2.35 Divis for next 3 years = 9.2% (at Sp 2548). Almost half my float in psn (too many eggs?), but the results exude confidence. BoL

Hi Troubles Facebook is an embuggerance that comes with EMail. Once a week or so I have to delete all the messages which takes an hour or two. I've got a Samsung tablet but still don't know how to use it. BoL

Hi Troubles My little daughter don't need no advice, so I need to learn from her. But cost me nothing, so not too worried. Are you diversifying within builders? You were talking about rdw, but I think right now psn is moving! Could be wrong again, but today is last chance of getting in before XDivDt of 125 pps, ie pick up Divi, don't think will drop much and hold until just before 110 pps Final Divi - even then maybe hold cos IntRes produced soon after and you will get 9% + Yield. Of course if I used Facebook, I would know everything as well! BoL

Tries to look after me all the time. Got a reply from her: 'Hi dad Where was this builder From? What company etc? Did you see his id? What did he say was wrong with the roof? And why was he threatening to call the police? You got to be careful with door to door type people. Some will take advantage of vulnerable people. You come under that category. You trust people too easily when in fact they could be crooks, swindle you out of money for a dodgy job. Or worse barge their way in past you to rob you. This builder sounds dodgy to me. It might be worth reporting to police it as suspicious. Or can do that by ringing 101. Its not a 999 emergency but to report something. Don't feel uncomfortable to ask for a persons full name, to see id and give business card, company name, email address, work address. You can take car details too. If they threaten police, best to say to them, yes get the police. Or, you can say, "wait outside please I will call them myself. This is harassment". Call 101 saying you are being intimidated and harassed by a door to door builder and you would like police assistance. Don't take this kind of thing lightly or brush it off as one of those things. The power cut was caused by a sub station in Saltburn being on fire. If you used Facebook you would know this. It caused a big power cut. Love Jen' Obviously I have become very stupid as I age, so probably no point in listening to my ideas at all! VBoL and hope some of you will still reply to my (daft) posts.

Hi Pickles I've said this before, but if Bill Gates had diversified his investments, he wouldn't be the richest man in the World. Another saying - 'the market is always right'. If that was the case Warren Buffet would be no better off than us. By any measurements builders are the best value in the market, sentiment is nil cos Sp driven by Divis alone. BoL

Gotta a feeling is going to happen very soon. Don't understand the technical stuff, but the mood on this board is definitely changing. All it needs is a couple of announcements, then how high can this go? BoL

Hi Tom Very late cos I just sent my daughter a long EMail, but must get to bed earlier. Best performers this week are psn and rdw (up 3.1%), tw up 1.1%. 82% of my port in builders now, cos most undervalued sector in market. Why not diversify out of ITV and into bkgh, bdev, bwy, psn and rdw? Can't go wrong at these prices! Just noticed very low volumes in nano. A big(ish) investment there right now could push the price and give it some momentum. BoL

Hi Graham Psn doing well cos of 125 IntDivi (XDivDt 08/03/18) about 4.5%, which is not going to attract FatCats much, but then about 3 and half months later another 4%+ (110 FinDiv) = 8.5%+ Yield, which will interest them! Bvs doing well cos even though results not very good - they are better than expected. Don't have numbers to hand but I think psn massively undervalued (Per, Peg, Pbv ...), while the numbers for bvs won't be much worse. Psn has been outperforming all builders for years, while bvs has been under performing. I know which I prefer, but you can hardly go wrong by investing in bldrs right now, cos by the end of May they will be far higher. BoL

Hi Johnson A bit tough on the Authorities I think - who is going to build them? Will tw divert resources to build for councils at (no doubt) a far lower margin, than their very profitable private housing? Not that I have any sympathy for Local Planners - they used to be totally corrupt (maybe still are). BoL

Hi Tom Maybe they are right and the Sp will drop next week. This has no effect on my plans re end of May, and suggest that any fall in price is an opportunity to top up. I'm all in and avoid borrowing (HSBC up to 50% Port), but if a serious fall maybe tempted. BoL

Hi Tom Just input W/E prices from Real LSE, quite a few differences to this Lse! This is inexcusable - better not to produce any Sp's than incorrect ones. Very happy with psn, so good they had to pay Ceo �100M! Also based in North East where I live. Still hold sge which have been suffering recently (sold some recently to buy nano). All I have left is part of my original buy 05/08/13 (average price 361, now 662 = 83% up). Had they not been based in Newcastle I probably would have sold out. I realise sentiment should play no part in strategy, but I have done extremely well out of sge (since 1996), so don't want to desert them. Have a great weekend and BoL

Hi Troubles How is the weather at Ullswater?. No more snow here yesterday or today, but it is not melting so still have about 3 inches. Almost got stuck in a drift yesterday but managed to get out OK. Cliffs, potholes ... all bets off if that lot blows up! They used to say a nice little War was good for the economy. BoL

Hi Crozza My idea is based entirely on people buying the divi forcing the Sp up until 20* the Divi. In the case of tw 2 Divis (Fin and Special) XDivDt are only separated by about 1 and half months, which I combined and regarded as just 1 Divi. This may not be justifiable, anyway I will be very happy with 243 (average now 192). As for psn IntDiv and FinDiv separated by 3 and a half months, so definitely cannot be combined, but I never said I thought psn would reach 4700 - again quite happy with 3292 (average now 2078). Regardless of who is closer I am better off with psn. I like your calcs but based on some assumptions (12 * EPS, 11.4 *, for psn, tw). I realise you were being generous with those numbers, but psn Yield over 9% right now, which won't last for long! Or Imho psn going North faster than tw. I will probably sell both about 1 week before (later) XDivDt, regardless of Sp. Still think tw could reach 260 end of May and hoping for 4000 for psn mid June. BoL

Hi Tom Would have replied earlier but couldn't get on the system. Have you had the same issue? Couldn't get closing prices and what they publish now are wrong anyway! System in collapse, for any IT guys left there, it is SNAFU again. In reply to your statement I totally accept the small amount of tw I sold (float av I think 203), I have lost money on, but I am looking at potential. If psn becomes 4700 (now 2583) justified by NigRule-17, then I am very happy. Don't think this will happen cos of the big separation of XDivDates (another 4% in July, on top of the 4.5% at end of this month). Another justification for my idea, is that tw results in line with expectations, while psn far better than expectations, so I expect psn will surge over the next few weeks, and will continue to mid June, while tw will gradually increase to 260. I am not buying psn Divi cos I intend to hold to mid June (at least!). Divi is no more than a bonus. Hi DarkElf So many people are so negative, but this is a great opportunity. Remember 260 for tw by end of May and something between 2583 and 4700 for psn by mid June. Boat leaving Port is psn, don't miss it! Of course I could be totally wrong again, so do your own research. BoL

Hi Tom Sold tw @ 185.45. Sill a big fan but I think more upside in psn. Big Divi due end of month 125 pps (XDivDt 08/03/18). Just going to hold these until mid June before making any decision. BoL

Hi Troubles You could think I am a mouse, sold 25% float in tw and rdw and bought same in psn. I like to think that was the prudent move! No more snow (yet!) today, but black clouds approaching. Roads clear at the moment, maybe 3 inches of snow. Note psn XFinDivDt is 14/06/18, so rather than selling builders in May, you could invest in psn and pick up Divi. Not much drop after XDivDt usually (except when it coincided with Brexit) maybe cos PreInt early July. BoL