Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Tom Just topped up using the last of held float so all in again at 193.4 averaging down a bit from 208, and holding out until 260. Don't really expect to trade again (in tw) until end of May. BoL

Hi paddy and zcapr Totally agree - time to buy - I'm looking for 260+ before end of May (XDivDt) and will probably sell then rather than wait for Sp to recover after XDivDt drop. Paddy, remember this - tw is massively undervalued Because of Brexit Mess - so this is a buying opportunity and as you say maybe 300 by end of year. So at 191 can't go wrong. Might well be buying tomorrow and might even use some hsbc Invest Direct + credit facility. 8% Divi for a growth Company with a Per (which I regard as less than 9.0 - depends on how you calc it) is just so good. BoL

Hi Johnson If Divi is 15.3 pps as promised, this justifies a Sp to me of 260+ before XDivDt, assuming IntDiv not increased too much. If Sp less than 20 * Divi, then fat cats will buy for a 5% cash return until Sp becomes less than 20 * divi - they give up when divi becomes 4.6% of Sp. Also that 0.4% makes a big difference to the Sp, and is why I say 260+. BoL

Hi Troubles This system is falling to pieces - I might have to get close prices from Advfn, Motley Fool or somewhere unless they sort it by tomorrow. If I have to do this regularly there is no point in being here, and will migrate to Advfn, great site - bit difficult to use, but nothing I can't learn. I like your distinction between a Belief and Faith. Been wrong far too many times to be sure of my beliefs, and I hedge my bets with 2 other Coys (rdw and psn), so 1/3 fire in the heart for tw. Sometimes circumstances can cloud your judgement, and who am I to criticise people who don't agree with me. Plenty of Bull S__ters around, but we have a reprieve at the moment. Gone very quiet since, which is a bit of a shame. BoL

Hi all I realise not many people believe my prediction of 260 for that date, (barring disasters), and I think it will be more than that. That is some return on Sp now at 199 now, and have no intention of buying any more (unless a big drop), or selling any to take a profit before that date. Set up nicely and just being patient, with nothing much to do now, average float price 210 (cos bought at the wrong time!), but 50p on top of that is great. Keep the faith and BoL

Ps I can send you the graphs/charts and system if you send a me an EMail to my login here @ hotmail.com.

Hi Troubles Merging Peak/Troughs with RNS dates at the moment. My idea is to buy in the Trough before the next RNS date and Sell after the next Peak or n weeks after RNS Date, which is a bit of a pain. Got a similar issue here. Houses going up all over the place with no changes to infrastructure, other than to build a path under a railway bridge, which will require traffic lights on the main coast road, increasing pollution (due to stopped cars) while creating grid lock in our quiet ex village. Gotta get out of all this cos we are going backwards. Also I notice this site doesn't know closing prices again, nor Ftse100 most of the day. Bol, and see you in Alaska!

Hi Troubles I ignore cost of transactions (but my system doesn't), they have decreased a lot over the years. I used to regard the minimum deal as being �2k (otherwise Cost of deal too high), don't know now - probably OK to deal at �500. According to the system I have described there are only 12 Buys and 12 Sells of �5k after initial 6 buys of �1k for the base values. Started with a float of �10k - a lot more now! BoL

Hi Troubles You should copy the table to a spead sheet, cos as you say trying to make sense of this data ('scattered All around like Mad mans S**t' as a pal of mine used to say), is tedious. To do this highlight the table, copy, open Notepad and paste into it. Save as Txt1 or something then Open Excel, New blank document, Data, Import External Data, Import Data, Your File Name (Txt1), Text Box appears - defaults to delimited, set delimiter to tab (meant to be comma ?!), Next, Finish, Text box appears with =$A$1, OK. Done apart from commas! BoL

Hi Troubles Just to be clear. The maximum outlay at any point in time is �15k and profit �14,331 = 96%. This assumes perfect timing (easy in retrospect), and the purpose is no more than to illustrate the potential of the system. You don't need to hold any base value, but the greater the base the less the profit. My idea is that the base should be about 20% of the float to protect against the share price decreasing, in which case you can still sell �5k to move to the next company. Only the base value is decreased a bit. Based on �15k float and �6k base then Profit 14331 / 21000 * 100 = 68%, but you make profit on the base value as well, so if �5k float on tw and �1k base, Profit on �6k, so a bit better than 68%. tw has (for me) a target price of 260 by end of May - how it gets there I don't know, and possibly a trough in March in which case maybe top up. It is most annoying there are no overlaps, 4 periods when no float used so am looking for companies to plug those gaps. Also need to adjust my system to use new Buy/Sell dates and see how it all links in with RNS dates. Not much fun trekking in wind and rain, have you hung your boots up for now? BoL

Hi Troubles Somehow I missed your reply @ 20:57 You are right that in the plan I invest float in all but tw (so 5 Coys), but because of the Cycles, everything is sold before the next Cycle. This is where Base Value comes in which does not need to be much - maybe �1k. The reason for the base value is you can always sell providing that you have some shares left in that company (whatever the results). So I agree you need a base of �6k and a float of �15k giving �21k, decreasing profit, but since every deal made a profit that year, you really don't need need the base value at all. ie Borrow �15k and invest as described and then from nothing by the end of 4 Cycles you have �14,331. Redrow went ballistic when Steve Morgan came back - special case and the reason you should not trawl thru History too much. I grabbed Peaks and Troughs for 2017, hoping that the Cycles will continue - of course there is no guarantee that they will, but if they don't vary much maybe 60%, or 50% if you include disaster recovery of �1k in each company. No real difference from your system, it all boils down to feelings in the gut and belief! BoL

Hi Troubles We are certainly not out of the woods yet re Brexit. Started 2016 and as I thought Brexit messes it up completely, so gave up! Just done 2015 using Buy/Sell dates from 2017, overall profit 58% which is quite good but note Cycle 1 Jan to May - Excellent, Cycle 2 Jun to early Sep - Poor, Cycle 3 mid Sep to late Oct - terrible, Cycle 4 mid Nov to early Jan - fairly poor. Summary below Comp, C1, C2, C3, C4, Tot, Price, Value bkgh, , 16, 1, 22, 39, 3499, 1365 bdev, 243, , ,243, 597, 1451 bwy, 13, 6, 30, 49, 2750, 1,48 psn, ,15, , , 15, 1992, 299 rdw, 481, , , 481, 451, 2169 tw, 801, ,-38, 296, 1059, 194, 2054 Tot 8685, 58% Cost, 15000 I can post the Buy/Sell table if you like. At least tw got on the board this time but note Cycle 3 losing money there! I particularly like the idea identifying low point of Cycle (Buy Dates) and suspect the poor results are due to Sell dates being too early, so I need to check this out. Just looking at tw graph 1st Peak 26/05/17, (my system only stores Friday close prices) while Peak/Trough system has peak at 24/04/17. This suggests Sp stabillised around 200 a month before XDivDt. This is interesting because price has to increase from 198 today to 260 between now and 23/04/18, and the vast majority of the increase will happen after FinRes (27/02/18). Say 210 to 260 in 8 weeks, or 24%, that is some return. My system told me to ignore PreFin and get in before FinRes. Must be more intelligent than me! Anyway, if TotDiv = 15.3 and IntDiv 2.3 then Fin + Spec = 13 pps and 20 * 13 = 260 Sp. Don't know about moving averages. I have an idea that while Sp going up Hold, if it starts going down Sell. How to relate this to RICS, Liberum, Welsh non Farmers, 200 day averages, NutCases ... I have no idea. What I find amazing is the lack of overlaps when tw and psn Ye Dec while bdev, rdw and bwy Jun or Jul. Hope you battened down all the hatches for the storm, even a little windy here. BoL

Hi David When FinRes produced (27/02/18) they will announce the amount of FinDiv and SpecDiv which is expected to be about 13 pps, and the ExDivDt expected to be 31/05/18. If the Sp reaches 20* the dividend then Sp will be 260 just before 31/05/18, which will also be the peak in May. Hope you are right about Brexit fears and builders share prices. BoL

Hi Troubles Cycle 1 started, Shares going North until May! Below is a new chart produced by only investing �5k into the top 3 performers of the 6 builders, so tot cost �15k. Delimited by commas Comp, Date, B/S, Shares, Price, Value, Dif, P/L bdev, 23/01/17, B, 1048, 477, 5000 psn, 23/01/17, B, 261, 1913, 5000 rdw, 23/01/17, B, 1142, 438, 5000 rdw, 01/05/17, S, 862, 580, 5000, 279, 1621 bdev, 15/05/17, S, 818, 611, 5000, 230, 1,405 psn, 22/05/17, S, 204, 2456 5000, 58, 1,419 bkgh, 05/06/17, B, 159, 3151, 5000 psn, 26/06/17, B, 221, 2258, 5000 rdw, 10/07/17, B, 912, 548, 5000 psn, 31/08/17, S, 188, 2659, 5000, 33, 888 bkgh, 05/09/17, S, 133, 3752, 5000, 25, 954 rdw, 05/09/17, S, 773, 647, 5000, 140, 903 bkgh, 14/09/17, B, 144, 3468, 5000 bwy, 15/09/17, B, 167, 2994 5000 rdw, 15/09/17, B, 912, 548, 5000 bwy, 23/10/17, S, 132, 3792, 5000, 35, 1333 bdev, 24/10/17, S, 714, 700, 5000, 146, 1024 rdw, 01/11/17, S, 753, 664, 5000, 159, 1058 bkgh, 09/11/17, B, 139, 3588, 5000 rdw, 24/11/17, B, 859, 582, 5000 bdev, 28/11/17, B, 840, 595, 5000 bdev, 05/01/18, S, 760, 658, 5000 80, 529 rdw, 05/01/18, S, 753, 664, 5000, 106, 704 bkgh, 09/01/18, S, 118, 4240, 5000, 21, 909 Summary Comp, C1, C2, C3, C4, Tot, Price, Value bkgh, , 25, , 21, 46, 4240, 1950 bdev, 230, , 146, 80, 456, 658, 3000 bwy, , 35, , 35, 4240, 1,484 psn, 58, 33, , 91, 3686, 3354 rdw, 279, 140, 159, 106, 684, 664, 4542 Tot 14331, 96% 15000 ie 96% Profit Next task to apply the same dates to 2014 and 2015 BoL

Hi Troubles Was thinking about your message (Mon 07:34). I create all my own graphs with a minimum time period of 1 year, and from my last message you will see I have been doing charts big time. 2016 was an exception cos of Brexit which is why I am tempted to ignore it. 2015 is quite similar to 2017. I am going to set my system up to buy/sell shares based on the Peaks/Troughs of last year. We only got about 1 or 2 inches of snow and all gone now. Since we live on a hill we never get any flooding and no Utes issues. Do you have your own generator, water supply and enough food and candles? BoL

Today is the low point for all the builders, so it is time to buy. It is the Nadir of the 1st of 4 cycles this year. The first Peak will occur in May, so Sell all and Buy back in June for cycle 2. Sell all end August and Buy back mid September for cycle 3. Sell all end October and Buy back in November for cycle 4. Sell all 5th Jan 2019 ready for the first 2019 cycle, and buy back 22nd January 2019. Easy ! That is what my charts are telling me (for what that's worth) assuming 2018 Sp movement is similar to 2017, then the charts say 89% profit plus Divis make 100% +. Even just half that will do for me, and a lot better than banks or Building Societies... I am ever the optimist and if May doubles the number of houses built (because she has control!) next year I would expect that to increase profits by at least another 50%, but not holding my breath. All barring Potholes to fall into, Cliffs to fall off and the Icebergs to collide with, (and Nut Cases). BoL

Ps Buy Date for all is tomorrow, when all Comps at Cycle 1 Trough.

Hi Troubles Below is a summary of Buy/Sell Dates assuming �5000 transaction. No overlaps at all so need 6 * 5000 capital. Sum Comp Date B/S Shares Price Value Dif bdev 23/01/17 B 1,048 477 5,000 bkgh 23/01/17 B 157 3,191 5,000 bwy 23/01/17 B 202 2,472 5,000 psn 23/01/17 B 261 1,913 5,000 rdw 23/01/17 B 1,142 438 5,000 tw 23/01/17 B 2,994 167 5,000 tw 24/04/17 S 2,500 200 5,000 494 rdw 01/05/17 S 862 580 5,000 279 bwy 08/05/17 S 170 2,941 5,000 32 bdev 15/05/17 S 818 611 5,000 230 bkgh 15/05/17 S 149 3,362 5,000 8 psn 22/05/17 S 204 2,456 5,000 58 bkgh 05/06/17 B 159 3,151 5,000 bwy 05/06/17 B 179 2,798 5,000 bdev 26/06/17 B 885 565 5,000 psn 26/06/17 B 221 2,258 5,000 tw 03/07/17 B 2,809 178 5,000 rdw 10/07/17 B 912 548 5,000 bwy 03/08/17 S 154 3,252 5,000 25 psn 31/08/17 S 188 2,659 5,000 33 bdev 01/09/17 S 797 627 5,000 88 tw 01/09/17 S 2,475 202 5,000 334 bkgh 05/09/17 S 133 3,752 5,000 25 rdw 05/09/17 S 773 647 5,000 140 bkgh 14/09/17 B 144 3,468 5,000 psn 14/09/17 B 205 2,436 5,000 bwy 15/09/17 B 167 2,994 5,000 rdw 15/09/17 B 912 548 5,000 bdev 18/09/17 B 861 581 5,000 tw 21/09/17 B 2,717 184 5,000 bwy 23/10/17 S 132 3,792 5,000 35 bdev 24/10/17 S 714 700 5,000 146 bkgh 25/10/17 S 126 3,978 5,000 18 psn 26/10/17 S 173 2,890 5,000 32 tw 26/10/17 S 2,415 207 5,000 302 rdw 01/11/17 S 753 664 5,000 159 bkgh 09/11/17 B 139 3,588 5,000 bwy 09/11/17 B 146 3,415 5,000 tw 09/11/17 B 2,604 192 5,000 rdw 24/11/17 B 859 582 5,000 bdev 28/11/17 B 840 595 5,000 psn 30/11/17 B 197 2,540 5,000 bdev 05/01/18 S 760 658 5,000 80 bwy 05/01/18 S 136 3,686 5,000 11 psn 05/01/18 S 180 2,778 5,000 17 rdw 05/01/18 S 753 664 5,000 106 tw 05/01/18 S 2,370 211 5,000 234 bkgh 09/01/18 S 118 4,240 5,000 21 Comp C1 C2 C3 C4 Tot Price Value bdev 230 88 146 80 544 658 3,580 bkgh 8 25 18 21 72 4,240 3,053 bwy 32 25 35 11 103 3,686 3,797 psn 58 33 32 17 140 2,778 3,889 rdw 279 140 159 106 684 664 4,542 tw 494 334 302 234 1,364 211 2,878 Tot 18,158 Apologies for spacing BoL

Hi Helena Thank you very much for the offer, but all colors... are controlled by my program and too much on my plate to take on anything more at the moment. I have my own (very old fashioned!) way of doing things BoL

Hi Troubles At the moment I am relating peaks and troughs by date, without regard to RNS's. Graphs almost done, but I love this - it gives a simple buy/sell date for each company. The only trouble is there is so many overlaps (either be in all, or sell all) it is very difficult to form a strategy. If all out, maybe go for aht and if Merkel or Macron say Nein or Non, Aht will rocket while UK Coys plummet. I am very happy with this strategy (which assumes 2018 will reflect 2017, barring potholes), cos prev years obscured by brexit, and before that it is basically too long ago. You mention rdw, NW builder - the Chairman and ex CEO, Steve Morgan has said he is going to take a backseat in rdw, and the shares plummeted. This is the second time this has happened, the first time he returned and got the company going again. Can't remember when he announced he was taking a back seat again, but it has affected Sp significantly. He took over his Dads (tiny) plumbing business based in North Wales, and turned it into (I think) the 6th biggest house builder in the country. He used to own about 40% of rdw (MrktCap 2,368m), but has reduced it recently. This accounts for the huge variation in rdw Sp. I can't post my new graphs here cos of the useless editor they have. I will let you know when they are done. My plan at the moment is to Hilite (and override), my existing closing Friday prices with the Sp Peaks and Troughs from the prev (or next week?) values, on a relative strength basis. Then I need to examine how RNS dates relate to this. This is where I have an issue. My initial assumption was that Sp movement was based on the release of RNS's, but from the data (of Peaks and Troughs), it seems that this is the critical issue. Simply Date based! Army idea number 1 - Kiss - Keep It Simple, Stupid! Bit like Nig-Rule 1, If in doubt do Nowt. Hope you recover from your forthcoming floods! BoL