Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Tom Haven't sold yet and really didn't see this happening. My system was right and I should have bought bkgh when it said - they made some -ve comments in the last couple of Rns's then, yet again they produced excellent results. No way of knowing to what extent tw rise due to bkgh and brexit negotiations, I guess 90% Brexit. Cliff 1 seems to have been avoided, but as Ice said Sp will probably drop again soon. Confused again - might sell some on Monday to increase (cash) float, or is 210 still on for New Year? I'll apply Nige-Rule 01 - when in doubt do nought. BoL

Hi Troubles I am also confused. 210 only possible if Brexit going well, else low 190's. Toss a coin - either could happen so unlike last time I am preparing for the unexpected (The Cliff). My system does not advise on political events, those are my guesses - all it does is report on critical (RNS) dates and analyse Sp movement before and afterwards. Ideally I buy before RNS date, sell a few weeks later (No weeks Calcd by the system) then sell. But if I did that (using only 6 Coys at the moment) I would hardly be using my float, so then I have to decide how to merge buys/sells together to maximise float. Buy before system buy date, Sell after system sell date, Some things are for sure, such as tw Sp will be 240+ by next ExDivDt (= 20% increase if you do nothing at all, in about 10 months - better than Banks - which will do for me), or you can be more proactive and move a float around the builders. As Pickles said RICS report not a good omen (another Cliff?) so you need a good Diary system - thanks for reporting that, not in my Diary yet. I eliminated bvs ages ago and crst recently, on the verge of getting rid of bkgh (then 5 Coys!), so need to add more. Looking at tef, aht and ferg and very interested if you have any more suggestions. Bit of pain adding new coys (automating) but I need at least 8 and another 8 to watch. BoL

Hi Tom I am selling shares to increase my float and holding off buying cos my system is not suggesting any buys before next year. This means I will be holding a lot more cash than I have before. I said previously there are a lot of cliffs the Sp can fall off, so think it wise to hold a %age in cash - What %age? Still think 210 possible by New Year if Brexit going well and 240+ by XDivdt. BoL

Hi Troubles As I have said before, builders are so undervalued already it should have no effect at all. That is not to say it won't have a short term impact. My reasoning is the Sp (for psn and bdev also) is driven by the divis. Sp = 20 * tot of FinDiv and SpDiv which, some time ago, I figured out was 240 for tw (ignoring assumed 3 pps IntDiv). This is the price tw will reach just before XDivDt as FatCats buy the Divi. What happens to the price on the way to 240 is irrelevant (20% increase). Hi Tom Hope you follow my reasoning, and just to contradict myself I think the Sp will fall if no Brexit deal, so probably a good idea to be in cash, to buy back hopefully at low point. Have a look at Sp graph at time of Brexit vote - low point about 3 weeks after the vote. The converse is if there suddenly is a deal, the Sp will probably increase which you will have missed if you are in cash. Having said all that I got the Brexit vote totally wrong so maybe I'm talking rubbish again. BoL

Hi Cdl1 That was unfortunate - just before Steve Morgan announced he was taking a back seat in the company no doubt. IntRes not out until beginning of Feb next year, so the rise today a bit of a surprise. BoL

Hi Tom I think tw could still reach 210 by New Year, but it all depends on how Brexit goes. I could be wrong but might not see 24 for nano again, so I would get in right now. Averaged down to 41 and not averaging down any more! Also keep an eye on rdw - up 5.8% today, somebody knows something? My system is telling me to buy rdw and psn at the moment. BoL

Hi Tom Can't you say something really negative about tw! Like Brexit doomed, Redfern under investigation by SFO ... BoL

Hi Tom My point is tw could buy a site and build prefabs on it, ie none of the additional costs, hassle you mention. A little worried because I don't know if they have considered that. Why fix a system if it's not broke? Still think that is the future so they should be there before anyone else is. BoL

Hi Graham UT (uncrossing trade) means nothing, no more than an automatic Sets balancing action. I don't think there is much point in looking at trades at all, cos shares bought always equal shares sold. BoL

Hi Cdl1 Can't think the lifespan will be different from ordinary houses. I agree there are issues with the public general view of prefabs, trailers ... but the grand design program just shows what can be done. I think the public perception of these houses will change when it becomes apparent that factory built houses are cheaper and of better quality than the equivalent trad build. Don't know how long it will take tho. BoL

Done it again! ... Autonomous plant working directly from plans, with all the safety factors built in like self drive cars, are the future. Recently there have been -ve comments on the quality of new build houses, and the time to get issues fixed. This is not an issue if the house is factory built. Have a look at https://youtube.com/watch?v=woZfdb8gcPs https://youtube.com/user/HUFHAUSGMBH https://youtube.com/user/wwwhansehausde Don't know if these links still work. BoL

Hi Cdl1 tw opening at 170 was a comment on the late trades (huge sells apparently), but as I have said before I think they are probably meaningless. Plasterers barely exist now, and I believe construction on site will be replaced by prefabs made in factories, decreasing the need for brickies and joiners. No Robots, but initially remotely controlled plant (why have a man in a machine if all you need is some cameras)? The plant, becomes smaller, lighter, safer and cheaper Then autonomous

Hi Troubles Just had a look at Fastbrick, an Australian company no doubt (.Au), so cannot invest there (as far as I know) even if I wanted to. Might suit Saudi cos dry, but imagine getting those machines working over here in the middle of winter in the mud ... Looks like a Tech demonstrator and years from being practical (at least over here). But why try to stick bricks together, when you can have panels (internal/external with loads of different specs)? The trade of glaziers now is completely redundant cos everyone uses prefabricated double glazing. Brickies, Joiners, Plasterers will soon be trades of the past as well. The age of robotics means nothing needs to be done in-situ any more. Daft story, the paviors always unloaded the kerbs and channels from the lorry themselves, but the latest lorries had a little crane operated by the driver to do it for them. Trouble was they were always in the wrong place - so they to move them - progress, but their weekly bonus plummeted. BoL - been told by Tom, gotta get to bed earlier!

Hi Tom When you consider this Sp was almost 500 4 years ago purely on potential and now 27 as that potential is about to be realised, I think it could take off any day - just need some news of revenue coming in. Just been a bit slow getting into production. Unlike agma nano have overcome production issues and are on the verge of realising their potential, 200? Don't know how long it will take to get there and could well be bought out by Samsung, Dow, Merck, Hisense ... but hopefully at a good price (better than my average 36). Still think the future is prefabs, (though again, don't know how long it will take). BoL

Hi Sunset Sp 622 now, but when Divi came it went up to 700+ as fat cats bought the Divi. This will happen again when next big Divi is due which will no doubt be more than 34.4p. Say 40p, then Sp will go to 800+ ie 29% increase. Just buy tomorrow and make 29% by doing nothing other than selling just before XDivDt. Doesn't matter what the FatCats do. BoL

Hi Cdl1 Done it again - sent by accident. Divi alone (bdev 34.4 * 20 = 688 - 34.4 = 654, but reached over 700 - 34.4 = 666) but bdev now 618 ie 48 under min valuation. The only justification for this is a significant decrease in Eps, which I do not believe will happen. Rdw do not pay as much Divi but their growth rate is higher and am sure they will continue to do well. Hi Sunset I still think you won't find better value in the market than builders, so I'm just hanging in there. BoL whatever you do.

Hi Cdl1 Eps Growth decreasing a bit in last few weeks, reflected by trading statements from rdw, psn and tw not being as optimistic as previously. This explains the rapid drop in Sp of the builders in the last few weeks. This does not matter to me, because this is already built into the Sp. In the case of psn and bdev their Sp is justified by the Divi alone (bdev 34.4 * 20 = 688 - 34.4 = 654, but reached over 700

Hi Prof As you say logical move for the Chinese to buy bdev (not a partnership with some obscure Birmingham Builder), my only question is how much will they pay, for a full blown takeover - I guess (hope!) 900+. BoL

Hi Strictly I apologise for how long the system is taking - just keep getting new ideas which I build in thinking shouldn't take long, but often leads to a redesign. Don't use PBV in my calcs - I seem to remember that it is the residual value left in the company if it went bust tomorrow. Not very likely in the case of psn, bdev and tw, but could still be a good indicator. What do you think of my idea that Sp will rise to 20* Divi? Bdev got down to 584 W/e 15/09/17, so got in big time cos divi (Final & Special) was 34.4 indicating Pre XDivDt 688 (in fact reached over 700). Did very nicely there and in the process of building that into the system (yet another new idea!) My favorites are psn, bwy and rdw right now (so they hold the biggest Base Values). Trouble is I'm basically down to 5 companies now (prev 3 + bdev and tw) and would like to work on 8 for my float system to work best. Still hold a small base value in bkgh but will probably get out, after computer told me to buy, checked up last trading reports and decided not to - companies like that should not be in my system. Could you suggest 2 or 3 more good builders to me? I know you will suggest tef as one which I will accept and build into my system, but prefer those with a bigger Mkt Cap. I have been thinking about bdev Sp. If total Divi was 41.7 then Sp should be 41.7 * 20 = 834 - 41.7 = 792, assuming no Eps growth next year. I think the only justification for a lower price than that is if Eps decrease by difference between Cur Price (620) and 792 = 28% decrease in Eps. Do you think bdev Eps will decrease by 28%? I agree with you that builders are probably always undervalued, but would add that more undervalued now than ever before. Now back to my system! BoL

Hi HeresHopin I agree with you that you cannot rely on the special divi, but don't see why they should end as long as the Companys are making money. My justification for the 20* multiplier is that if Divi is more than 5% of Sp people will jusy buy the Divi. High price before XDivDt for Tw, Psn & bdev were all over 20 * Divi. Note - My justification of 834 is wrong - 20 * rule only works on the big Divi ie 34.4 * 20 = 688, not total Divi (41.7 incl Interim Divi). So now I will try to justify again why builders are undervalued. Hi Prof Can't guarantee all the numbers below are correct and if you find any are wrong please could you let me know. First of all you can see the increase in price over period, which should reflect Eps Growth. What immediately becomes apparent is increase in price lags far behind the Eps - hence undervalued now. Secondly -ve Debt = Cash in hand. Note Psn had �202 M increased to �913 M, and bdev now has �580 M Cash, so not going bust any time soon! I apologise for the spacing. Comp, Y/e Date, Prce, Eps, Debt, Per, Peg bkgh, 30/04/13, 2011, 141, 58, 14.3, 0.24 bkgh, 10/11/17, 3613, 670, -107, 8.4, 0.15 bdev, 30/06/13, 328, 14.6, 193, 22.5, 0.14 bdev, 10/11/17, 620, 58.0, -580, 10.7, 0.49 rdw, 30/06/13, 245, 15.6, 14.0, 15.7, 0.19 rdw, 10/11/17, 594, 25.5, 139, 8.7, 0.34 bwy, 31/07/13, 1411, 88.9, 61, 15.9, 0.27 bwy, 10/11/17, 3450, 438, 19.0, 7.9, 0.20 psn, 31/12/12, 801, 54.9, -202, 14.6, 0.46 psn, 10/11/17, 2673, 220, -913, 12.2, 0.66 tw, 31/12/12, 68, 7.0, 59.0, 9.7, 0.04 tw, 10/11/17, 193, 18.7, -365, 10.3, 0.51 Per. Builders average Per (Price / Eps) used to be about 13.0 (2.0 less than Ftse100 av of about 15.0) cos building Was cyclical! All changed by Brexit vote, now average is about 9.0. This means generally builders have lost 44% value. And (if like me) you regard, builders are no longer cyclical they have lost 67% of their value (based on Per 15.0). You might think Brexit justifies this (which we haven't, and may not, and even if we do will probably affect other sectors more than builders!) Peg Equals Per / Eps Growth. Any Peg less than 1.0 is good value. Simple calc Sp should be 1.0 / Peg * Sp, or if av Peg about 0.50 the sp should be double what it is. All these indicators suggest to me that Builders should be about double there current price and does even include Pbv. Don't think all my Peg numbers are correct! BoL and hang in there.