Member Info for Nige_W

What has changed? Demand far greater than supply, which won't change, Boss of rdw a little less optimistic, so what? Still making loads of money. New Govt regs mainly bugger London builders, not shire builders like bdev. From bdev FinRes Trading report: "Delivering returns for our shareholders In line with the improved Capital Return Plan announced in February 2017, and given the strong financial performance of the Group, the Board is pleased to propose a final dividend of 17.1 pence per share (2016: 12.3 pence per share) and a special dividend of �175.0m (17.3 pence per share), both of which, subject to shareholder approval, will be paid in November 2017. The total proposed dividend for FY17, including the interim dividend of 7.3 pence per share paid in May 2017, is therefore 41.7 pence per share (2016: 30.7 pence per share)." Or, to put it another way, if a company increases return from 30.7 pps to 41.7 pps in 1 year, it is not very probable to decrease the divi next year. If Sp should be 20* divi and assuming no increase in divi then Sp should be 834 by XDivDt next year - now 612 - maybe on the way down to 515, but am I bovvered? Loads of rumours of Chinese moving in with Prefabs or building in London with British (Birmingham based company), but nothing happened yet. This is not to say it won't - The Chinese might just buy bdev, tw or whoever to get into a very profitable market. Still not bovvered, cos they will have to pay far more than 612. Arm was sold at 1700 from prev base of around 1000. Just relax, have another drink and be patient - can't go wrong unless you sell, good opportunity to buy, or wait to see if it goes down even more, then buy. Note to Prof If bdev worth 834+ in less than a year, and you wait for 515, will you ever get in, and do you still believe 515 is possible? Note to KD37 Sunset If your Port is right, believe in yourself and you don't have to do anything. My system is to move a float between builders depending on whether I think next RNS is +ve or -ve -. I think it makes a few more pennies. BoL

Thanks queeno Never did understand how land prices were priced into the accounts. As an Ex Quantity Surveyor I never saw Land Price on Valuations, but couldn't question the Prof on his proclamations of building on old land cos didn't understand it myself. Almost 40 years since I was a QS and probably all different now. Quite agree - he has no understanding of Builders. BoL

If you have a quick look at tw board you will see how I justified why it is a potential disaster for the council to offer the Chinese the contract and why it is a potential disaster for the Chinese Coy. To summarise (for bdev) no 20% margins there, so stick to the knitting - ie doing what you do well, or the resources required can be better used elsewhere. No Juicy Steak! Having worked in building, the distance between the regional office and the site is very important (as Tom on tw stated - an ex tw Project Manager). The Chinese Coy is welcome to make 1% margin/profit out of the project, but is bdev bovvered, it is National. Years ago we built houses at a loss to keep employees employed, but now everything is subcontract so doesn't really matter. Some time ago we were going to be flooded with Chinese Prefabs, but it never happened, or even got off the drawing board. bdev got up to 700 because the Divi alone justified that. Most companies have a Divi+ Sp, ie Sp = 20 * Divi + 50%, or in bdev case (34.4 * 20) + 50% = 1032. Only Brexit has upset this and built into builders prices more than any other sector. Btw, why don't you look up bdev gearing and compare with your Utes (cna, sse, bt ...) - no longer have that capital? And please could you tell us again the underlying bad news - like when supply exceeds demand, interest rates significantly increase, new banking crisis, or if Trump Nuces N Korea! Why don't you plague London builders like bkgh, crst & bvs and leave us alone? Don't know what your agenda is, but I'm very close to filtering you.

Hi TroubleT I am out of Telit at a small loss, looked good to me when things were going well, but registered in Channel Islands and the Boss indicted in the US, mean't it was time to bail out for me. I wish you the best and the Coy is probably massively undervalued right now cos of the overreaction. Small Coys always have issues, get the timing right it is great, else not so great. Microsoft was a small company once! BoL

Impossible to compare cna and sse to builders cos they have nothing in common. In fact almost opposites! You concentrate on the same issues in London but bdev is National, not London & SE based. Why don't you pester bkgh, crst and bvs shareholders (who are LSE based) as opposed to us? Seems to me you don't know much about builders, building or accountancy, since you proclaim bdev fundamentals are poor. You seem to infer the price should always stay the same ('for every buy there is a sell') which is meaningless - as sellers diminish to nil at old price, the price goes up to the next minimum sell price, and vice-versa. What bad news is there which is not built into the Sp already (Int Rate Inc, Brexit... - study Ftse100 Per's for value)? bdev do not sit on land cos more profitable to get in and get out, as quickly as possible, and their policy is to speed this system up to maximise profit, decreasing their land bank. No point in having money in the ground - doesn't pay wages (whether you have loads of cash in the bank - like all builders now on which they are paid interest, but not like Utilities, who have mountains of debt on which they pay interest). Govt debt interest is greater than the cost of the Countries Defence, (Army, Mod, RAF and RN - in that order of spending). Anyway, won't be long now before you will have to change your name after being totally discredited here and plague another board. Hi dodgepot A lot of bad news about right now, but as I said it's built into the Sp, so not worried. Price could go down a little more but will return to 700, 6 weeks after XDivDt, or 515 if the Prof is right. I am holding out for 700 before selling remaining float. When I sell that I expect to have made >100% on bdev since 13/08/14, not including 5%+ Divis. I am very happy with that, but the Prof probably made far more in shorting bdev during that time. BoL

Hi Sunset Whatever Govt tries to do (and London Mayor, SK) to increase affordable housing you need the people to be able to build them, and after the Govt bankrupted two thirds of small builders 10 Years ago, who will build these cheap (non profitable ???) houses? Tw and bdev used to build Council houses big time, and very profitable - far more so than Private housing in 1980 when Maggi decided to destroy the Unions and stop investment in council housing. I agree with the Prof that generally Govt intervention is a disaster. But the Govt created this disaster and whatever they do I can't see the basics changing for a while. Political consequences of importing 1 million E Europe builders too difficult ... So I'm with you - now holding my remaining float until 700+. Daft observation, if the Prof targeted bkgh (or any of the London builders rather than bdev) his ideas make a little more sense. Bkgh in free fall now, crst and bvs have been for a while. I don't think we have seen the worst of the market reaction yet, but it doesn't matter much - just ebb and flow. Not worth adjusting holdings, cos I'm not good enough to get the timing spot on. Next Trade end of December, according to my system. BoL

I have a basic principle that the Sp should be 20* the divi just before XDivDt, so Divi is 5% of Sp. With recent Divis of tw and psn the Divi represented 4.6% of Sp, and bdev at 5% suggested a Sp of 688 (34.4 * 20) min, and it got to over 700, so again between 4.6% and 5.0%. Now the Prof is suggesting 345 at best which infers a 10% Divi. Assuming earnings per share stay the same bdev will probably pay about 34.4 Divi next year (justifying a share price of 700+ again), but if they increase, it justifies a pre XDivDt price of 700 + EpsG. The only way to justify a Sp of 345 is if Eps less than half what it is now, but since Eps has increased every year for about the last 10, doesn't seem very probable. The 2 Refs he quotes are based on London builders (bkgh, crst and bvs) and will have little effect on Shire builders - like bdev. 109 Posts stating that bdev has a problem, but not bkgh, bwy, rdw, psn & tw! Makes me think he has his own agenda! He never answers any of my questions (ie fundamentals ...), so on verge of pressing filtering him. Hi Sunset This business is driven by money, wobbly time now, but so much -ve sentiment already built into builders Sp at the moment, it doesn't really matter (see above). I am not a day trader (but there is money to be made there, if you anticipate and get your timing right). Just invest in value and sit on it, with maybe a few adjustments. BoL

Thanks Vlad Buying no Float and makes me think about selling BaseValue, but that would bring them down to 5 (bdev, rdw, bwy, psn & tw). For my system to work I would prefer 8, so could you recomend 2 or 3 other builders. BoL

No idea what this means, Sp up 137 (up 3.6% to 3944) before opening, but 1.9M sold for 3800. It was my intention to move some float here, but don't know whats going on. Anyone any ideas? BoL

Hi FarmerT As I said I'm guessing at 30% but with Divis and cos I stick to builders, I would be most surprised if it was less than that. I only hold 9 coys now (6 builders heading on 90% port, + sge - solid, agma - not worth selling and nanoco - hopefully about to take off). The Govt proclaims they will double house building next year, by small builders? 2/3 of which they put out of business.This is fake news - and they know they can't do it. Why go with gsk cna ... when you get returns like these from builders? Watch bkgh Sp prior IntRes around 01/12/17 - London builder (weakness in market there) but quality set up. BoL

Ha, what smaller builders after making 2/3 of them bust from 2008 to 2010, already made 13% since 24/8/17 and got a nice divi coming, and will sell remaining float at 700 = 14.6% in 6 weeks time (unless Sp goes down to 515 in which case I will a bundle more)! I don't believe your account of short trading either - bdev open at 698 went down to 694 reached 702 around 11.30 and you chose the numbers perfectly, same applies to your afternoon trade. Makes me think you are a genius (with perfect timing) or you are making these numbers up retrospectively (with 20:20 vision). If you want to prove how good you are, declare your short trades before you make them, cos nothing else is believable. I have asked you several times what is wrong with bdev fundamentals, but no reply. If you don't reply now I think I will filter you, cos you repeat the same spiel without saying anything new. At least Liberalman got the occasional recommendation on tw board before he B......d off - while I don't think you have had any (besides myself who pressed recommend instead of reply by accident)! In 6 weeks time we shall see who is closer, you 515 me 715 and I'm closer will you B......r off.

Hi BlueB Sold half so still got half left + BaseValue. Yes IntRes is interim results for bkgh my estimated date 01/12/17 but buy in a few weeks before that, ie soon. Have a look at sp graphs around this time, which look very impressive, but remember this is a London builder where things are cooling. I have eliminated bvs and crst from my held builders cos their performance well short of others, but bkgh look quality. Now hold 6 builders bkgh, bdev, rdw, bwy, psn and tw and move the float between them. BoL

Hi BlueB Just checking things before I go to bed, in close down routine, message to daughter, finished working then off. Just can't figure out why the Prof is so -ve about bdev? Shirley his ideas apply to all builders (except bdev whose new policy is to buy/build/sell more quickly). Sold at 692 and lost 8p - not bovvered, even if it goes higher. Made 13% and can now buy back with held float if Sp plummets as he proclaims. If you look at Sp movement, they are all so steady they ain't going to change the pattern much. If Sp drops when the divi alone justifies 700 (ie no goodwill and highly -ve market sentiment), how long thru EpsG (of around 20%) to re-justify 700. So it is bound to recover, I guess 715+ in 6 weeks, he says 615 or less. One other aspect I don't understand - how can he short a company going XDiv - ie if automatic decrease in Sp of 34.4p, you can't go wrong! Everyone would short all companies paying a good divi, just before XDivDt, if it was allowed. He makes no sense at all! Good thing to see it only takes 6 weeks to resolve - then he will probably sign on under a new name just to provoke us again. Have a look at bkgh (IntRes soon), psn, bwy and rdw my favorites. Haha, now 03:08, didn't want to disappoint! BoL

Hi Manc The company is rock solid and good for long term. It won't be easy to find better growth elsewhere and predict you will return to psn soon. My return 76% since 25/11/14 - that growth will do for me (excl Divis), and my biggest single investment. I wish you the very best of luck.

Congrats BlueB I sold half at 81p profit (611, 692) = 13%, holding other half for Divi and will hold that until return to Pre XDivDt, hopefully within 6 weeks then sell that as well. Usually the next few months are good for builders, so am going to increase my float (and now have a held float). BoL

Apologies. Done it again! Mouse on Sofa and it has a mind of its own. Anyway, what's your guess for 6 weeks time. My bet 615, the Prof 515 - a medal for the closest. BoL

Hi Sunset The Prof is correct there, automatic correction to Sp = -34.4p. If they pay out �10 Bn in divis the company is worth �10 Bn less. But then there is the another correction from the people who reinvest their divis into new shares. Don't know exactly what the timing is, but I am not bovvered at all - I made a correction by selling half my float to create a held float. Then I could have had an average of 584 not 611, and make as much money as you have! You got the timing right, I didn't and could not adjust cos no float left. Anyw

Hi9 JMax The price will open at 34.4p less than prev close - from there who knows, I expect a gradual increase to prev XDivDt price over 4 to 6 weeks to say 700 while the prof reckons it will plummet to 515. We shall see. BoL

Sorry about that, bdev have been selling off old land, but what have the rest of builders been doing. Fundamentals are excellent so why try to deramp bdev.

Hi Prof How can you say the shares are overbought? You maintain their profits are due to building on land purchased a long time ago, but tw always had the biggest land bank (not bdev!) They continuously buy land for new housing and their new policy is to buy less land but develop it more quickly. Money in the ground does not pay the wages. There is no strategy to release them slowly because they are building as fast as they can. As long as house prices increase there is no point in holding land hoping for an increased return on the buy price cos far more money to be made by developing it. If demand > supply prices go up else prices go down. Profits are not based on the prices you bought the land for - that is why bdev are trying to hold less land and develop it more quickly. This is a bit chicken and egg or tis - tisn't. As a property manager you will see the London market cooling (so I got of bvs some time ago and crst recently, still holding bkgh cos they have done very well for me). So bdev might have decreased prices in London but so will those I just mentioned (who are based there) rather than bdev, rdw, bwy, psn and tw who are not! The biggest house builder in the country is bdev (by number of houses) but their MktCap, Eps well short of psn (who must build more expensive homes) and probably tw as well. All the prices of builders could plummet (Corbyn Nationalising builders, another banking crisis?), but bdev not much better or worse than the rest (except LSE builders) and when Sp driven by divis rather than potential (value) there is a huge upside, cos they already 30 to 40% undervalued now (unlike any other sector). I still think I disagree with almost everything you say, your main point is that bdev hav