Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Blue 3 Buys av 611. My original idea of the divi representing 5% of Sp (giving 688) was wrong. Tw 01/06/17, Divi 9.2 pps, Sp Friday before 200 ie Divi 4.60% of Sp & Psn 15/06/17, Divi 110 pps, Sp Friday before 2379 ie Divi 4.62% of Sp so Bdev Sp Friday before = 34.4 / 4.61 * 100 = 746. Decided to hold on until 720! Interesting to see what the price is then. But probably will hold until week before XDivDt, sell and buyback week after. I bought tw and psn Divis and sold ay Buy Price. Note tw dropped to 178 09/06/16 finally recovering to 202 01/09/17. and psn dropped to 2275 after XDivdt recovering to 2461 21/07/17. All Prices are Friday Close. BoL

Hi Judge Thanks for the compliment. I was rather hoping to stir up a hive of Bees, telling me how stupid I am hoping for 660 Pre XDivDt. Assuming XDivDt is 24/10/17 just over 1 month away and if you can make 5% + in 1 month - better than Banks! Just done that with psn and tw - bought Divi and sold out after price = buy price, so 5% + for nothing. Bdev is an even better opportunity cos builders have just been hammered again. Current plan hold float in bdev (before XDivDt) until Sp = 660 then sell and buy back at low after XDivDt and if it doesn't reach 660, just hold and I will have accept a tiny 5.7% return (in a month). Oh well, Que Serra! I always looked for growth companies and ignored Divis, but developing a Divi strategy. The really daft thing is house builders tick every box, Growth, Divis, Cash in Bank and the amount they are undervalued by, ie look at Per, Peg. Plenty of spanners about, but people will always need houses and Utes - almost unaffected by Brexit while builders worst affected. FatCats stung by the fact that the govt created the Banking crisis which meant no mortgages available but people still had to pay for Gas, Electricity, Water ... They never did know what they were doing - DotCom bust proved that. All our best Tech companies sold to Japan, Korea, US, Europe and now China. As I said, plenty of spanners about - lot's of things could get worse - but you still need somewhere to live. BoL

Hi Judge I said on a prev post I am not selling for less than 660 cos divi justifies 688. My Float av is 611 (not about 608 as I said before), so if price reaches 660 tempted to sell or hold for 680, just depends on how close to XDivDt. The price should increase until then, but does anyone know XDivDt? I looked for it in their accounts and couldn't find it, (easily!) The remainder of my shares are at av 355 (from Aug-14), using Last In First Out - so not too worried. According to my old SS Eps 9.4 (Jun-14), now (Dec-16) 17.9, but these numbers could be wrong! Anyway, closing on 100% gain on Base Value (over 3 years) reflecting Eps Growth, and I see no reason for this to change. If you invest for growth then builders are great companies to be in - 20% to 30% almost guaranteed (rdw best until last week!), or if you invest for divis then builders are great companies to be in - 5% + percent, depending on when you buy. If you buy today at 589, you will get 34.4 pps for every share you buy. So buy £10k = 1,698 Shares and 1698 * 34.4 = £584 = 5.84% cash made in about a month or when bdev returns to 589 after XDivDt - don't think bdev will see 589 again for next 3 Years, think around 1600 by then. Carney was embarrassed by the affect of his statement and now has qualified it by saying gradual increases (ie 0.25% increments) with very little affect on housing. No worries from Carney spanners, but there are plenty of others around! Not sure about averaging down - increases your commitment and after (out of the blue) Steve Morgan (chairman) sold a large chunk of rdw, causing Sp to plummet, then Carney hints at increased interest rates, builders Sp in freefall. You can just make your situation worse. Stuck with £12k Float in rdw at about 610, now 560. Either SM wants to buy Liverpool Fc or it was a very shrewd move, or Both! I expect rdw to bounce more quickly than bdev, and if in doubt do nothing. Don't think that is very good advice! BoL

Hi Strictly I said before I look for growth rather than Divis, but rethinking Divi Strategy! The first thing I look at is Per, builders average before Brexit around 13.0. According to my (unchecked!) numbers and from last published results: bkgh 7.7, bdev 9.0, rdw 9.2, bwy 10.0, crst 6.8, psn 8.9, tw 8.6. bkgh and crst are London based - not the flavour of the month, so say the others average 9.0, it infers Shire builders are undervalued by: (13.0 - 9.0) / 9.0 * 100 = 44.4% Obviously bkgh and crst even more undervalued, but I think they will be the first to see any downturn, so I watch them carefully. Totally agree Peg < 1.0 is good value and according to (unchecked!) numbers again bkgh 0.13, bdev 0.47, rdw 0.41, bwy 0.25, crst 0.26, psn 0.48, tw 0.43 Again if you eliminate bkgh and crst the average about 0.40. Then: (1.0 - 0.4) / 0.4 * 100 = 60.0% So Brexit has devalued builders by around 50% of their real value, assuming we leave? Brexit could be a disaster for this country, but I think it will have little affect on builders, building houses for British people with British labour and British made materials (mainly!) In growth Companies I look for rate of change of Eps, Margin, Cash in bank... if +ve then Hold, if -ve then sell. I think builders are a growth Industry (as opposed to being cyclical), cos in my lifetime I think they will keep on growing. Your point of view of Pbv and Roce is of little interest to me, you justify your opinions in your way, I justify mine my way, the daft thing is we agree! I say again psn, bwy are rocks, while bdev, tw and rdw are flighty and bkgh and crst worry me. Finishing my system now, I cannot believe how many new ideas I had and felt I had to build in. The system will never be finished so I have created a stop point, to get it making sense. Btw what do you think of rdw value now at 548 as opposed to 630 last week? Sharp bounce Monday I think. BoL

Hi Sain@ No doubt you have seen some of my previous messages, and that I am an optimist. My little daughter is in the process of buying a house with her partner because she is pregnant and would like to sort the house before the baby is born. I need to buy a bungalow cos my partner can't get up the stairs. I have lived for 40 years in my house, and never had a reason to move so I didn't! Some people need to relocate cos of change of jobs, and loads of immigrants need somewhere to live. These are the main reasons for moving house which means even if help to buy disappears it won't make too much difference, that's just for kids who want to be independent. I don't believe (a Conservative Govt) will change this policy. The main point that Strictly makes is that all builders are massively undervalued and the if a crisis occurs, all the builders now have plenty of cash, like psn, bwy, bkgh and crst (almost unaffected by the Govt created crisis of 2007 and unlike tw, bdev and rdw who didn't!) The last still had to pay interest on loans (whilst sales dried up), whereas the former just laid everyone off that they didn't need, and had no worries. This makes an interesting comparison - compare number of employees to company Turnover. Compare that with Cash in Bank, and I am sure Strictly has already thought of that (PBV - price to book value - I think). You mention Value Traps, which sounds horrible, but I don't understand what it means - not too worried anyway. I enjoyed reading your message and look forward to a reply. BoL

Hi 2227 Steve Morgan sold Tuesday then Thursday rumours of Interest Rate increase which put builders sp into freefall. He might even buy back £76M today, but that could be a little embarrassing. He's a cluey cookie! One thing for sure builders were massively undervalued, and now even more massively undervalued - massivest? I need 610 to sell £12k Float in rdw to buy more bdev (pre XDivDt surge towards 660 - 680) currently 582, but I think rdw will bounce faster than bdev, when people realise what a shrewd move SM et al made. Yet again a massive overreaction by the maket, if Int rate increases it will be by no more than 0.25% which is already built into the Sp anyway. Unfortunately (as usual) I have no held float so cannot take advantage of this ridiculous situation. BoL

I give up! out. BoL

Hi noggers Another attempt. Don't know why the fragment got sent. I am looking for min of 660 before sell pre XDivDt, and if it doesn't reach that I will just hold - average buy price since late August about 608 = 5.7% Yield. Of course I have to wait for Sp to return (to 608) before I can sell, to make the 5.7% but I am sure it will. And if it reaches 660 I have made 8.6%, with the possibility of buying back after XDivDate on Sp drop, from which it will recover. As we approach XDivDate the Sp will increase, so the question is when to bail

Hi noggers I am looking for min of 660 before sell preXDivDt, and if it doesn't reach that

Hi Judge The original reason for what is now called shorting was farmers in the US guaranteeing their prices for their products. ie Sell my cereals at today's prices, regardless of what they will be in 6 months time - if there is a glut of wheat, then I'm still OK. Anyone who bets on the share price going down is taking a big risk. The farmers (pretty well) knew what their their profits would be. So shorters are just chancers nowadays. The alternative is to go long - ie buy shares at todays price for the price you will get in 6 months time - bdev 600 today buy long £6k = 1,000 shares and if bdev Sp is 700 in 6 months, you will have £7k, £1k profit. Again very risky. I always thought the longers would cancel out the shorters. But when Divi is 34.4 pps and if this represents 5% of Sp, then Sp should be 688, or buy now @ 600, and sell at say 660, 10% up. If bdev doesn't reach 660 before XDivDate just hold - get around 7% cash and wait for the price to return to 600 before selling (as though it could be less?) Don't do shorts or longs, so probably talking garbage again, but just bought £10k in bdev and looking for 660, (or maybe 688!) Minor issue, still got £12k in rdw, should I increase bdev or go for bwy, FinRes 17/10/17. I prefer 2 baskets. BoL

Hi Graham Got almost 74% of my port in builders, cos by far the best value around. The worries you mention apply to all sectors, and Imho builders less than most. ie 100% trading in UK with very little imported materials, built by British Builders for British customers and demand will exceed supply for years to come. Also (unlike the Banking crisis) they have loads of cash in the bank. Just need patience and wait for Per to recover. Then bdev will be over 1000. Don't know when this will happen, so not holding my breath. BoL

Underwhelmed by price increase - same price as Monday, but most other builders are down by about 2.5%. What do they have to do to get to a reasonable value? Most builders are at about half pre-Brexit Per's, ie Double Per, Double share price. Or if no Brexit the price would be over 1000. I just don't understand why builders so heavily hit by Brexit. The good thing is they all represent fantastic value. BoL

Hi Strictly Completely agree with you, Bwy PreFin 05/08/17. Making adjustments soon bwy +£6k, from bkgh (-£4k) & psn (-£4k) and +£4k to rdw. Dif of £2k from psn & tw Divis. Then I have £20k Float left in tw, from which I want a price of 190+ to sell. Then, too many eggs in 1 basket issue again? Have a look at nano board - buying more there (from agma and telit), cos I think nano is about to take off. BoL

Don't think this an issue for rdw, could be for bkgh, crst and possibly bvs, but could be an indicator of things to come. I think PreFin results should be published 28th, which I have no doubt will be excellent again. Do you know when Steve Morgan became chairman? I suspect it will coincide with change of fortunes of the company. BoL

Hi Strictly Held bwy since Dec-13 and due to Last in First out still hold 350 at 1423 and 162 at 1520. Due to float system I also have 20 at 2470 and 18 at 2591 giving average of 1551, current sp 3020 = profit of 94.7% - my best profit. I intend to make an adjustment - increase £4k to £20,610 as my new Base level and maybe another £10k Float before 05/08/17 PreFin statement. Sadly the increase of £4k will decrease my profit - nice to see 100%. Interesting you also mention rdw, I am adding £6k there as well to a base level of about £20K. PreFin 28/06/17, so maybe add another £10k Float there (depends on tw reaching 200 - £20k Float there, also got £10k Float in psn for 5% Divi - ExDivDate 15/06/17). Will be in contact soon. BoL

A Company registered in Jersey with no interests in UK has got to be bad news. I liked their product but got out before the catastrophe, and feel for you guys. Don't know legalities, but suspect something is not quite right. I wish you all the best but to make 80% loss is a bit of a disaster. Stick with Builders - about 25% growth pa and 5% Divi, is slow but steady. BoL

You know Steve Morgan is an excellent chairman, 40% shareholder and is the man who is really running this company. rdw were struggling about 5 years ago and he turned it around. I read your article on Greg on the bvs board and he sounds like he knows his stuff. As I said I am watching them with interest, but don't expect any great changes in sp for about a year. I believe bvs is run by accountants - not builders, and middle management needs to change, can't be done overnight. BoL

Assuming new CEO of bovis can turn around the company, it will take time, and a common idea is that he will make existing situation look worse than it really is (to make his performance look better). Bovis needs a culture change and that will also take time. You could well be right, but I would move slowly from rdw to bvs, only topping up bvs when a profit realised. I will watch bvs with interest but not investing there yet. BoL

Great news just keeps on coming. My only concern is when is (mass?) production going to commence and when will income exceed expenditure. Have a look at Nanoco - sp almost lowest ever, just as factories (Dow, Merck and the Chinese) going into production. BoL

Wrong again - it went down. But anyone know what this is about - Price 225, Bid 185, Ask 197, when two buys of 25,000 went through one at 225 and one at 225.9 from 6th April ie yesterday?