Member Info for Nige_W

Congrats on Buy at low point. According to my theory should be back to 470 ish next week.

All builders down today except bdev (cos ExDivDate) tomorrow, so people buying the divi. This infers the share price will go down by the amount of Divi (24.7 pence) after ExDivDate ie to about 450. My contention is the price will recover to about 470 in 2 weeks or so. This could be because some people will buy after ExDivDate cos they think this will be the cheapest entry point. Could be wrong again, BoL

Apologies in advance for garbled message - looks ok on screen now. Ltbh 23/10/16 Curr, bdev, bwy, rdw, psn, tw Price, 479, 2475, 393, 1731, 146 £9000 invested in 5 Companys Ltbh Bought 01/09/16, psn 23/08/16 Coy, Shares, Price, Value, Price, Value, P/L bdev, 357, 504, 1800, 479, 1711, -89 bwy, 76, 2378, 1800, 2475, 1873, 73 rdw, 463, 389, 1800, 393, 1819, 19 psn, 101, 1782, 1800, 1731, 1748, -52 tw, 1098, 164, 1800, 146, 1602, -198 Orig Value 9000, Cur Value 8754, Loss -246 Divi, Pps, Yield%, Shares, Value bdev, 24.70, 5.2, 357, 88 rdw, 6.00, 1.5, 463, 28 bwy, 74.00, 3.0, 76, 56 TotDivi 172, Tot Loss, -74 RNS System Completed Deals No, Actn Date, B/S, Coy, Event, Shares, Price Trade Cost Shares Value 1, 23/08/16, B, psn, IntRes, 505, 1782, 9005, 6 2, 01/09/16, S, psn, IntRes, -478 1884, -8995, 10, 27, 509 3, 01/09/16, B, bdev, FinRes, 885, 504, 4497, 33 4, 01/09/16, B, rdw, FinRes, 1150, 389, 4506, 33 5, 12/10/16, S, bdev, FinRes, -949, 474, -4488, 10, -64, -303 6, 12/10/16, S, rdw, FinRes, -1175, 384, -4499, 11, -25, -96 7, 12/10/16, B, bwy, FinRes, 397, 2271, 9016, 0 Deal Monday 24/10/16 - Curr Prices Increase Float to £10,000 8, 24/10/16, S, bwy, FinRes, -182, 2475, -4500, 0, 17, 413 9, 24/10/16, B, bdev, FExDiv, 1148, 479, 5500, 0 Possible Future Deals 10, 31/10/16, S, bdev, FExDiv, -1148, 479, -5500, 0, 0, 0 11, 31/10/16, S, bwy, FinRes, -182, 2475, -4500, 0, 17, 413 12, 31/10/16, B, psn, MStat2, 578, 1731, 10000, 0 13, 14/11/16, S, psn, MStat2, -289, 1731, -5000, 0, 0, 0 14, 14/11/16, B, bdev, MStat1, 1044, 479, 5000, 0 15, 05/12/16, S, bdev, MStat1, -1044, 479, -5000, 0, 0, 0 16, 05/12/16, B, bwy, FExDiv, 202, 2475, 5000, 0 17, 27/12/16, S, bwy, FExDiv, -202, 2475, -5000, 0, 0, 0 18, 27/12/16, B, psn, PreFin, 289, 1731, 5000, 0 Tot, Profit, 935 Less, Trade cost 103 Net, Profit, 832 Divi, Pps, Yield%, Shares, Value bdev, 24.70, 5.2, 1148, 284 rdw, 6.00, 1.5, 1150, 69 bwy, 74.00, 3.0, 202, 149 Tot, Divi, 502 Total, P/L, 1334

Sent this on bwy board. Price of wood could incease by up to 10% - devastating - all the press can be botherd to report. Maybe bwy will have to increase their prices by about 0.01%. I Used to be a QS and most building materials are made in Britain (except wood). Houses are built for British people (and some foreigners) using British labour (and some foreigners) using British materials, by British Companies trading only in Britain (except tw which has a small set up in Spain). So what has Brexit and the exchange rate got to do with a shortage of houses? BoL

Up to 10% so could be devastating - all the press can be botherd to report! Maybe bwy will have to increase their prices by about 0.01%

Despite far more blue than red. 13.6% up since beginning of month so can't complain.

Hi TrickyHill No threat there cos I said it will never happen. I am calm and was illustrating the point of the rudeness of people on these boards, who would probably never dream of saying the same thing even on a phone. Hi Josh Thanks for the reply. I worked in Building for about 10 years and a thing I noticed was that all the builders have very much the same costs (land prices, subcontract costs, materials…). The only real variable is management – good or bad. So a company with good management will outperform a company with bad management. I agree with you that historical performance is no predictor of future performance, but good management will not change to bad management overnight (unless change in Ceo which I have seen). So a company that is performing well will probably continue to do well, until there is a change in trading conditions. I see no imminent change in the fundamentals, so builders will probably continue to do well. The only significant change is the Brexit vote resulting in a decrease in price of Builders from about 10 to 30%. But we are still in the EU and will remain in for many years. As I said my system is working for me – better than Ltbh or dartboard, and I will stick to it until something changes (like decreasing margins). I rode the Dot.Com bubble very successfully (made over 5* investment in 5 years), and all investments are a gamble. I had to write the disclaimers – “the value of your investment may go up or down…” when working as a computer contractor. BoL

Really nobody knows what will happen, but I think there is that there is a pull/push idea, ie buy the Divi before ExDivDt (Pull), or buy after ExDivDt on the drop (Push). I have created Spread Sheets for all the major Builders for the last 5 Years and the idea is consistent. Buy before ExDivDt and Hold for 2 -3 weeks after and the Sp normally recovers to pre ExDivDt. Investment returned all the Cash, (plus 5.1% Divi for bdev). I also made a relative Strength Graph over last 2 Years for those Companys. There is no more (significant) news to affect the Sp (before ExDivDt), cos only a short time after results, and the second idea (Push Investors), will want to get in asap after ExDivDt. Sp hardly takes more than a week (usually) to recover. You can only judge a Company on its last results, ie people put far more emphasis on trends now, rather than real results (only 2 per Year). Watch bwy Results on Tuesday to see where we are really going, not Anaylsts, Media … My investment strategy (see rdw board) has made me £502 as opposed to losing £314 on Ltbh on a £9 k investment since 01/09/16. Or I made about 6% as opposed to losing 3%. Maybe you had a bad time tonight, but you really should not call me a mug or naïve! I do my own research. I am offended and do you care? I will never meet you so will never confront you (to smash your face in!), so you have nothing to worry about. But why are people so much happier trading insults, death threats … on this, as opposed to phones or talking face to face? Still happy to remain friends – but don’t call me a mug or naïve again!

I agree with you (decrease in Sp by amount of Divi) in terms of the traditional high Divi Coys (like Utility Companies) but that is not the case with Builders. As I said bdev plummeted after ExDivDate last year, but this was not the case in previous years. Only took about 2 weeks for Sp to recover to greater than pre ExDiv. As I said this also applies to tw which plummeted after ExDiv 02/06/16 then plummeted again due to Brexit. But like bdev this did not apply to previous years - 2 weeks to recover. The other high Divi Company, Persimmon, follows the same path. My point is you should hold the shares for 2-3 weeks after ExDiv before selling, thereby recovering the investment and getting the return. The converse to buying before ExDiv is to buy after ExDiv, on the drop - which pushes the price back up, haha! BoL

Divi is 24.7 pps with Curr price of 483 = Yield of of 5.11%. (24.7 / 483 * 100). If you hold the shares on the ExDivDate you will get the Divi. So Buy before 27/10/16 (say £10k) and get a Divi of £511, Sell after 27/10/16 you have made £511 off a 3 day investment of £10k. 3 Days investment will make 622% pa, No worries! But last year the share price plummeted after ExDivDate, don't know why. Previous 4 Years, this did not happen. Never happened yet with tw who are declaring a Divi of 9% (over 9 months - ie 12%). So to protect your Divi and recover your investment, you might have to hang on to your bdev shares longer than you planned.

But still trading. I am not trading this company but noticed big price movements on very little volume. Could make money on this (if you know what you are doing - which I don't). I am watching for future reference. Delist subject to share holders approval.

Very encouraging news and trades, surprised the price didn't move even more. But fishing rods! After I just explained why graphene was essential for every new plane in the world. Roll on Monday and more good news. BoL

Great article - I agree with everything you say. But you post this on bvs board. Bovis have consistently under performed all the other builders for the last 5 years so their value will look better than their competitors. Besides that, I avoid the builders based around London because this is where I think the building cycle (boom to bust) will first be seen. So I watch them but them but do not hold shares in the coy. I wish you the very best of luck, and suggest you have a look at psn, tw, bdev, bwy and rdw. Btw bwy Finals Results due on 18th.

Apologies for Format, basically planes now have more issues with powerful lightening strikes due to composite materials in the wings, but graphene has very high conductivity so takes the current away better and effectively a new paint (with graphene) will solve the issue (for every new plane built in the world)!

Also Airbus though grant not to agma. Wonder material and as someone said a long time ago, cures the common cold and makes bald men grow their hair again! Project Supply chain partnership Contact Graphene Composites Evaluated in Lightening Strike (GraCELS) • Haydale Composite Solutions Ltd • SHD Composites Ltd • Cobham Antenna Services • Airbus UK(customer) • BAE Systems plc (customer) Gerry Boyce – Managing Director gerry.boyce@haydalecs.com The addition of functionalized graphene nanoparticles into the epoxy resin matrix of composite materials will greatly enhance the electrical conductivity thereby making them much more resistant to lightning-strike damage. NATEP Grant £150,000

Been here before.

Wrong again!

I don't believe the Buy/Sell volumes, but I agree the late trades will lead to a higher price tomorrow. BoL

My 2000 buy went thru as a sell yesterday, but just now 3 3000 buys just gone thru. Price should start moving soon!

No Actn B/S Coy Event Amount Shares 1 23/08/16 B psn IntRes 9,000 505 2 01/09/16 S psn IntRes -9,000 -476 2 01/09/16 B bdev FinRes 4,497 885 2 01/09/16 B rdw FinRes 4,500 1,150 3 11/10/16 S rdw FinRes -4,500 -1,125 3 11/10/16 B bwy FinRes 4,500 190 4 01/11/16 S bdev FinRes -4,500 -911 4 01/11/16 S bwy FinRes -4,500 -190 4 01/11/16 B psn MStat2 9,000 496 5 11/11/16 S psn MStat2 -4,500 -248 5 11/11/16 B bdev MStat1 4,500 911 I have ignored bwy MStat1 and tw MStat2 - price data shows no great increase after these events. On further analysis (and in retrospect), I could have ignored bdev FinRes and FExDiv. BoL