Member Info for Nige_W

You mention Brexit risk factor. But what affect will Brexit have on British Builders building houses in Britain for British people? (and an increasing number of foreigners). I agree a risk factor should be built into the Sp, maybe by deceasing the Per to < 11. By decreasing Per to 10 will decrease the justifiable sp by a not unreasonable amount of about 10%. According to Brokers forecasts rdw Per = 8.1 (ie about 30%) and if they grow the same amount as last year Per = 5.9 (ie almost 50% which justifies a price of 762 on Per 11, or about 686 on Per 10). One potential issue is the Founder of rdw, Steve Morgan who is now Chairman (and owns a large chunk of the Coy), could buy it out. Don't know how this works, but I think we would get a much better deal than the current sp of 400. To follow revised plan.

When 70% odd of the shares are held by institutions, the small trades yesterday had a big effect. I would not be surprised at all if there is a big buy soon and sp returns to 152.5. Seems like the sp is being controlled. I will watch the sp later today and see if the £12.5k Sell goes through, then decide what to do on Monday.

So much for Rock Solid! Only 8 trades and all sells, couldn't buy today (had to wait for Tuesday trades to clear.) Surprising such a big drop on such little volume. Big sell of £12.5k still waiting to go through so I will see what happens on Monday. Could go down even more, but I think this is creating an opportunity. One thing is for sure with trading these shares, always set a price limit!

Apologies for not replying sooner, I missed your message. Almost got the system finished (will it ever be?) If you are interested there is a lot more info on rdw board on how my system works. Based on £9,000 Investment: Ltbh system from 22/08/26 is an amazing £16 up! Chase Rns system is £653 up. Next move Sell £4,500 in bdev and rdw and Buy £9,000 in bwy 11/10/16 (pre Finals). Very pleased so far and I would like to hear your comments. Bol

Not on shifts, usually I take a look at the boards before going to bed and often stay up far too late. Good information, massive potential, just hope they are not bought out like arm. Didn't think arm could be bought out for cash £24,000 M, as compared to agma £82 M. BoL

Hi Maddox From Arm and reduced my profit from just short of 100% to a paltry 53%. Two points, after the recent unexpected rise in price (by me at least!) and the YEnd (30/09/16), this is historically the time of sge greatest growth, which should steadily increase until the end of this year. I think they are getting their act together Big time, and sorting out the Coys they bought into the Sage System. They are changing the business model, and as usual managing the change perfectly! Sage concentrates on SME's - not large Coys. There was a quote I remember from a long time age, " They stick to their knitting" ie they know what they do well, and stick with it. When my profit on a Coy goes -ve, or starts decreasing my rule is to sell. Don't think this is happening any time soon! BoL

Hi mytrader Price back to 152.5 which it has been for the last 3 weeks, so I will buy a small amount today. Support at this level is rock solid. I have a feeling agma are close to a break out, but the UT trade in the middle of the day is most strange! UT trades are uncrossing trades, usually done not long after markets open and not long before they close - ie an accounts (or Sets) nose picking exercise. They have innovative tech which will be used throughout Science and future Tech Coys - at the moment they are working on lubricants, special paints and other boring stuff. Right now that is bread and butter and in production, but the potential is massive! Btw have a look at Nanoco - another Coy spun out from English Universities - also on the verge of breakout Imho. Bol and nice to see i'm not arguing with myself here.

Weird, as you say a 1 code but followed by a UT deal and big price drop. I was going to buy back in today, but I think I will put that on hold.

First table is Price 27/05/16 – high point before Brexit vote, compared to current Price. Note I think that Builders were already UVal by 10% to 15% due to uncertainty caused by the vote. Also note sp going south before the vote which I didn’t notice, or ignored, so made no contingency plans for Brexit. Wrong again! 27/05/16 Neps U Val Brexit Desc bdev bwy rdw psn Tw Price 598 2760 427 2112 206 CPrice 497 2400 408 1838 156 UVal 17 13 4 13 24 So best recovery by rdw, worst tw but bdev and rdw just published FinRes. Bwy FinRes 18/10/16. Psn and tw 6 months away. Given a not unreasonable Per of 11.0 and working from Brokers forecasts of Eps: Brokers Neps U Val Per11 Desc bdev bwy rdw psn Tw Price 497 2,400 408 1,838 156 Neps 53.9 294 50.4 191 17.3 Per 9.2 8.2 8.1 9.6 9.0 Per11 593 3234 554 2101 190 UVal 19 35 36 14 22 So rdw and bwy most undervalued – the rest pretty equal bearing in mind psn has far more cash than the others, so can justify a higher Per. The trouble with Brokers forecasts is they invariably underestimate EpsG and keep increasing there Eps as FinRes approach. If you assume Eps will grow by the same amount as the previous EpsG then: Prev Neps U Val Per11 Desc bdev bwy rdw psn Tw Price 497 2400 408 1838 156 Neps 65.5 333 69.3 226 19.2 Per 7.6 7.2 5.9 8.1 8.1 Per11 721 3663 762 2486 211 UVal 45 53 87 35 35 So rdw and bwy most undervalued again. Psn and tw undervalued cos a long way from FinRes. As I said bwy FinRes 18/10/16 – well worth a punt, and rdw has not reached a new trading range – I believe 450 possible in about 5 weeks. Bwy 2800 to 3000 in 5 weeks. No –ve numbers, Per & Peg at historic lows, highest Margins ever, EpsG holding, Massive Divis and Brexit becoming too difficult. This is an opportunity to invest and the only people who don’t realise this, is the cowardly City Fat Cats! Of course I could be totally wrong again, but welcome all comments, arguments… Live long and prosper ):--- Sent this twice as well - hope it does not appear twice - first time no sign of it on rdw board, maybe there computer is sleeping.

First Time I sent this it said it didn't work, so apologies for sending it twice. A bit ****potical really - have a look at tw Board to see what I think of the numbers they publish!

Still developing the system. In the process of grading Rns's into after buy (or not), hold for n weeks, from 5 Year graphs. Just changed the system to add/subtract 2 days from Rns Date (as opposed to 7) - decreasing overlaps - so I can bounce £9k more often (or not?). My program tells me significant dates, from which I formulate a plan, depending on increase sp and for how long to hold. Most of what I am doing now could be automated. Meanwhile, I will just check out what seems to work. So 2 new fields: % Sp increase, and Hold Until - possibly 3rd % return over that time. Anyway, To Date Ltbh - £46, Rns Sys + £646. On just £ 9k since 01/09/16 - not too bad! Since this is the secretive rdw board, who rarely produce Rns's, their sp moves significantly more than the rest on any Rns release. At the moment the question is to hold on until Divi date, or abandon ship now? Btw I send spread sheets, always asking if they make sense? You never reply! Please let me know if you figure out what I am saying. Bol -:))) - don't really know what this means!

Still developing the system. In the process of grading Rns's into after buy (or not), hold for n weeks, from 5 Year graphs. Just changed the system to add/subtract 2 days from Rns Date (as opposed to 7) - decreasing overlaps - so I can bounce £9k more often (or not?). My program tells me significant dates, from which I formulate a plan, depending on increase sp and for how long to hold. Most of what I am doing now could be automated. Meanwhile, I will just check out what seems to work. So 2 new fields: % Sp increase, and Hold Until - possibly 3rd % return over that time. Anyway, To Date Ltbh - £46, Rns Sys + £646. On just £ 9k since 01/09/16 - not too bad! Since this is the secretive rdw board, who rarely produce Rns's, their sp moves significantly more than the rest on any Rns release. At the moment the question is to hold on until Divi date, or abandon ship now? Btw I send spread sheets, always asking if they make sense? You never reply! Please let me know if you figure out what I am saying. Bol -:))) - don't really know what this means!

Hi Jp I was looking up bwy PreClose and noticed FinRes are 18/10/16 (not 11/10/16). Don't know how this happened, but a bit worrying! Computer subtracts 7 days from DecDate to create Buy ActnDate and adds 7 days to create Sell ActnDate, and estimates dates if not declared (Colour Coded). As usual, estimates better than last statement - 3rd Qtr report. So New Plan: Deal Date B/S Coy Event Shares Price Trade Cost Shares 1 22/08/16 B psn IntRes 505 1,782 9,000 -1 2 01/09/16 S psn IntRes -476 1,884 -9,000 -32 29 2 01/09/16 B rdw FinRes 1,150 389 4,500 -27 2 01/09/16 B bdev FinRes 885 504 4,497 -37 3 11/10/16 S rdw FinRes -1,128 399 -4,500 0 22 3 11/10/16 S bdev FinRes -943 477 -4,500 0 -58 3 11/10/16 B bwy FinRes 399 2,253 9,000 0 Using Cur Prices (Close 15/09/16) 4 25/10/16 S bwy FinRes -399 2,253 -9,000 0 4 25/10/16 B psn MStat2 254 1,772 4,500 0 4 25/10/16 B bdev MStat1 943 477 4,500 0 5 01/02/17 S psn MStat2 -254 1,772 -4,500 0 5 01/02/17 S bdev MStat1 -943 477 -4,500 0 5 01/02/17 B rdw IntRes 2,256 399 9,000 0 Trade Cost -96 Shares Left Price Value psn 29 1,772 514 rdw 22 399 88 bdev -58 477 -277 Less Trade Cost -96 P/L 229 As compared to LTBH 01/09/16 16/09/16 Cur Coy Shares Price Value Price Value P/L bdev 357 504 1,800 477 1,704 -96 bwy 76 2,378 1,800 2,253 1,705 -95 rdw 463 389 1,800 399 1,846 46 psn 101 1,782 1,800 1,772 1,790 -10 tw 1,098 164 1,800 150 1,646 -154 Totals 9,000 8,691 -309 Bonus bdev divi (XDivDt 27/10/16, DivPd 21/11/16), Pps = 24.7 = 5.2% * 4,500 = £233. As opposed to 5.2% of 1,800 = £94. Hope this makes sense. Bol and I hope your new job goes well.

Doesn't really matter cos nobody reads this board, but FinRes 18/10/16.

Hi Jp Nice to get one right for a change. On looking at prev 5 Years Graph I think they are worth holding on to. I read somewhere that the new Govt policy is to guarantee loans to SME builders to encourage them to build more housing. This makes me think it could be time to go for rdw and bwy (FinRes 11/10/16), as opposed to psn, tw and bdev, (not that rdw and bwy are small). Do you use the ladder system (average down on -ve price movement, sell often at small profit?) Have you looked at my chase Rns system? Despite the depression at the moment so that Ltbh now down £412, my system £100 up. Next deal (5/10/16), Sell £4,500 in rdw and bdev and Buy £9,000 in bwy. I believe one advantage of my system is that I am always 100% invested (ie no cash rungs). I will run this until last deal (20/10/16) and then review it. Give up or go for £20 k rung. Btw, rdw 500 by Xmas I think is possible, and 600 on change of market sentiment (bwy results?) All builders are massively undervalued Imho. What has changed? Have we left EU, while £ devalued so exports, employment improving... The last time £ was devalued (officially) was in the 60's by Harold Wilson who proclaimed he would never devalue it. Sounds a bit like Brexit means Brexit! Sorry, but going into a Rant again! I could be too old to see Brexit and that could apply to you, regardless of your age. Too difficult - how can we make trade treaties with any country while we're in the EU? Does Brexit mean we can control our borders any better - other than stopping some hard working Eastern Europs coming in? To return "Control?" to our bunch of Politicians is just as idiotic as not entering the EU when it was first set up (Churchill)! Europe recovered quickly and we were left behind - I worked at Skinningrove Steel Works where we had Krupp rolling mills (confiscated from Germany after WW1) in the late 1960's. The Germans had state of the Art! Despite all the experts saying it will be bad for the UK (including the Labour Party, Unions & Pres Putin), they are all "invariably" wrong, cos they are "Experts?" Newton was wrong because Einstein proved it! No doubt Stephen Hawking and Brian Cox are also wrong. All is madness. We are Doomed !!! If we leave EU. I expect a lot of abusive comments to my rant, but am I Bovvered, do I give a flying F..k? If you have a reasonable comment to make it could lead to a reasonable discussion/argument. If we Brexit it's time to start whittling spoons in Alaska or New Zealand. BoL

Shame I'm arguing with myself again. Is there anybody out there?

Buy � 9k 1 week before Coy RNS and sell � 9k 1 week after Rns (or 1 week before next Rns). Start with �9,000 DealDate B/S Coy Event Shares Price Trade 22/08/16 B psn IntRes 505 1,782 9,000 01/09/16 S psn IntRes 476 1,884 9,000 01/09/16 B rdw FinRes 1150 389 4,500 01/09/16 B bdev FinRes 885 504 4,500 Next Deal B/S Coy Event Shares CPrc Trade 05/10/16 S rdw FinRes 1103 408 4,500 05/10/16 S bdev FinRes 926 486 4,500 05/10/16 B bwy FinRes 395 2,278 9,000 So Shares CPrc Value Status psn 29 1,795 521 Complete rdw 47 408 192 OnGoing bdev -41 486 -199 OnGoing bwy 395 2,278 9,000 OnGoing Tot Value Sum 9,515 ie 515 Profit Less Dealing Costs and rounding errors. Better than Ltbh -�138 over same period. Hope this makes sense. BoL Ps I tried to post this, couldn't see it on board so posted it again - apologies if it appears twice.

? for spacing Ltbh Coy Shares Price Value Price Value P/L bdev 357 504 1,800 489 1,746 -54 bwy 76 2,378 1,800 2,291 1,734 -66 rdw 463 389 1,800 408 1,888 88 psn 101 1,782 1,800 1,816 1,834 34 tw 1,098 164 1,800 156 1,712 -88 ??? ??? ??? 9,000 ??? 8,915 -85 MySys Deal Date B/S Coy Event Shares Price Trade Deal Cost Shares Value 1 22/08/16 B psn IntRes 505 1,782 9,000 8,999 1 2 01/09/16 S psn IntRes -476 1,884 -9,000 -8,968 32 29 527 2 01/09/16 B rdw FinRes 1,150 389 4,500 4,474 27 2 01/09/16 B bdev FinRes 885 504 4,497 4,460 37 3 05/10/16 S rdw FinRes -1,103 408 -4,500 -4,500 47 192 3 05/10/16 S bdev FinRes -920 489 -4,500 -4,500 -35 -172 3 05/10/16 B bwy FinRes 393 2,291 9,000 9,000 4 27/10/16 S bwy FinRes -393 2,291 -9,000 -9,000 4 27/10/16 B psn MStat2 248 1,816 4,500 4,500 4 27/10/16 B bdev MStat1 920 489 4,500 4,500 5 01/02/17 S psn MStat2 -248 1,816 -4,500 -4,500 5 01/02/17 S bdev MStat1 -920 489 -4,500 -4,500 5 01/02/17 B rdw IntRes 2,206 408 9,000 9,000 ? ??????? ? ??? ????? ????? ????? ????? ????? 96 ??? 546 ie 546 - 96 Cost = 450 Hope this makes sense - not too mangled

Hi Jp Yes. Companies included bdev, rdw (Ye June 16), bwy (Ye July 16), and psn, tw (Ye Dec 16). Not included London based Coys bkgh, bvs, crst, gfrd. I posted Rns data to end of Year on bdev board. Because of same Ye dates I can either go for 1 company or split £9 k between the 2 ie £4.5 k in bdev and rdw. The same applies to psn and tw. Good thing about bwy is that no overlap and it is a good steady company - like a smaller version of psn. I have a Ws which calculates P/L between Ltbh and my chase Rns system. So far Ltbh - £ 85 Rns Sys + £546 less trade Cost £95 = + £451 so looking good. BoL

Noticed you asked about upcoming bwy Rns. From my diary next Rns's: Actn Dec Dte Event Coy Ye Dte B/S 22/08/16 23/08/16 IntRes psn 31/12/16 B 30/08/16 23/08/16 IntRes psn 31/12/16 S 30/08/16 06/09/16 FinRes rdw 30/06/16 B 31/08/16 07/09/16 FinRes bdev 30/06/16 B 13/09/16 06/09/16 FinRes rdw 30/06/16 S 14/09/16 07/09/16 FinRes bdev 30/06/16 S 04/10/16 11/10/16 FinRes bwy 30/07/16 B 18/10/16 11/10/16 FinRes bwy 30/07/16 S 27/10/16 03/11/16 MStat2 psn 31/12/16 B 02/11/16 09/11/16 MStat1 bwy 30/07/16 B 07/11/16 14/11/16 MStat2 tw 31/12/16 B 09/11/16 16/11/16 MStat1 bdev 30/06/16 B 10/11/16 03/11/16 MStat2 psn 31/12/16 S 16/11/16 09/11/16 MStat1 bwy 30/07/16 S 21/11/16 14/11/16 MStat2 tw 31/12/16 S 23/11/16 16/11/16 MStat1 bdev 30/06/16 S 30/12/16 06/01/17 PreFin psn 31/12/16 B Looks OK on screen but will be mangled when I send it.