Member Info for Nige_W

That I mentioned in a prev post is accelerating. I was talking of selling and buying back in Oct, when I should have been buying! At least I didn't sell any. Looks like a good place to dump some of my Arm shares whenever they are bought out. Btw It was mentioned (can't remember where) that Arm was Uk's last Ftse100 Sw/Tech stock. What about Sge? Mrkt Cap now � 7,464 M. Maddox reckoned 675 by Finals (Early Dec-16), myself 688, but 693 Now! ie Just how far will they go? Per/Peg high but that is cos the City like what they see. Sge is a coy for my pension - ie Long Term - currently 86% up. Bol - Trend says Buy, Per/Peg say Sell - who knows?

imho If the sp drops any more they will be bought out like arm. Platform tech and World Leader. I hope they remain independent and do not believe the price could drop to 99. But been wrong many times before - I will hold anyway cos only 2.3 % of Port. bol

Oh ****! All is Lost. Been here before - DotCom Bust. A lot of our best Tech stocks were bought out by foreigners, and now they are gone - lost forever. I would not sell Arm for £40 (unless it increases to more than 25% Port). I will make a lot of money out of this deal, but I regarded them as having massive potential. Brexit vote and pound devaluation made arm look so cheap, so the Japs just bought them. So are all the Builders. Foreign Coys will notice this and buy them. Time to migrate and whittle spoons. I fancy Canada!

Can our Govt let this happen ???

Ps - share news concentrates on possible building slow down, which applies equally to all other builders. Just bdev better prepared for it.

Were excellent. What was significant was increase in net cash from 186M to 590M. So gearing from - 5% to -16%. Only bkgh -26.3 and psn -23.2 have more, tw – 8.2 and bvs -3.1, while all the other major bldrs +ve. This means (unlike 2008) bdev is well positioned for any Brexit driven issues, and the drop in sp is ridiculous. Hopefully it will recover tomorrow.

Hi Maddox, I have replied to bovered thread cos the Brokers should have all the numbers and yet cannot make any sense out of them, or as I said they have their own agenda. Congrats for an excellent analysis of First Half Results. Your estimate of 675 by Dec 16 when price was 593 (15/05/16) looked a bit optimistic. Price now 645, so looks quite possible. For all my Watch coys, I have a WS of YEnd to YEnd on which I plot the weekly prices for the last 5 years and critical date Labels, hyperlinking to RNS's, (the last not done for sge yet). This gives an idea of trends. From this it looks like there is a quiet time from about 20/05/16 to 02/10/16 (PreFinal ManStat) when the sp jumps as Final Results approach - so I thought about selling some now and buying them back (or more?) in October. However, as you say making future predictions is uncertain. The recent surge from 581 (06/05/16) to 645 (12/07/16), does not fit with the past trends. That is because the structure of the business has changed, from selling software (and charging a little maintenance), to renting and running it from the cloud. This trend started 02/10/14 (PreFin ManStat, Sep-14) and is ongoing. So I won’t sell any sge until the price steadies. Fwiw my guesstimate is 688 after Finals (around 02/12/16). Bol

Thanks dodger. I am long term buy hold, and haven't bought/sold anything for over a year, so lost a lot on Brexit. I was almost 50% up on bdev - now back in profit again but just 3%. There is now a very good case for Day Trading due to the volatility of Builders sp. Just (the small) matter of getting the timing right. Short term I think a big jump tomorrow due to ManStat, when hopefully they will announce a long term Dividend strategy. Whether you take Profit then and look to get in later again or just hold is up to you. Much more probable that the sp will dip below tomorrows end of day price, but bdev 65% off Year high (662). With that potential you can just sit back and watch with no worries. Bol Ps just noticed bwy is well behind other Builders increase today.

I was going to post this on psn Board cos that’s where my prev tables are, but I will now have an argument with myself on this Board, cos nobody takes any notice of my tables anyway. My policy is based on safety first, so I’m going for bdev, bwy, psn and tw. Watch only bvs (underperform) and rdw (gearing), also bkgh, crst and gfrd (cos high end London). Still think brexit should decrease sp by no more than 5% to max 10% from before brexit or Max BB? Ie sp the week before brexit already had brexit factor built in, so Max BB price is a truer value? How long will brexit take to effect Builders results? While Av Per for Ftse100 is about 14, Builders Av about 7 (or less), so Builders should be double the current price (all things being equal and is brexit So bad for Builders?). New Table !!! Even if spacing doesn’t work this should still make some sense. AsAt EoD 11/07/16 Coy BB Max Cur BB% Max% bdev 531 662 402 32 65 bwy 2552 2836 1930 32 47 psn 1942 2219 1521 28 46 tw 176 206 141 25 46 To me this infers bdev best value as my prev post said! Hi Josh I notice you have not been posting on rdw recently. In my recent posts I have said they have the highest gearing and lowest Divi in the sector, which, with safety in mind is not very appealing. They also have the highest EpsG 56%. Not sure how to relate retained profit and low Divi to potential EpsG. The other issue is fear factor – which I could have been overwhelmed by, despite what I have said. I think what I said earlier sums up my opinions ie that psn (rich, steady) and bdev (65% UVal) are the best value now. Bol all Ps Just put a deposit on a dilapidated cabin on St Kildare and will live off the Cliff – Herring Gull Eggs and Puffins, in case Trump and Corbyn take over. No trees so have to carve seashells for income. Just as I was getting into Spoons, but only cost £ 20.

Last I saw was 11th May which was very positive. Last Year there was a pre final statement 7/7/15 - so this year 13/7/16? Finals around 7/9/16 - Last year Finals led to 3% rise to only about 2% behind tw. Now about 18% behind tw. Normally these two coy sp pretty well mirror each other (even though 6 month dif in reporting dates) . Barring disasters I would say bdev is well undervalued. The reason tw so far ahead now is that tw published a divi strategy, and if bdev do the same (on Wed) I think they will catch up by up to 15% of Cur price, ie to 463. Not going to say when (before Finals or on Finals) and in the meantime anything could happen! Hope this helps. bdev could be 463 by 14/9/16, or not, or More? Who knows?, anyway I have made plenty of spoons now, so I'm OK. Bol

Just expanded my little SS giving a bit more information. End of day 7/7/16 in Gearing Order Cur Gear Pre Prev Cur Eps Decr No Comp Price % Exit Eps Eps G % Per 1 bkgh 2324 -26.3 3065 277.0 240.0 -13.4 24.2 9.7 2 psn 1337 -23.2 1942 167.0 187.0 12.0 31.2 7.1 3 tw 122 -8.2 176 14.9 17.1 14.8 30.7 7.1 4 bdev 349 -5.0 531 30.6 44.8 46.4 34.3 7.8 5 bvs 660 -3.1 928 95.2 110.0 15.5 28.9 6.0 6 bwy 1724 2.4 2552 225.0 294.0 30.7 32.4 5.9 7 gfrd 785 3.0 1200 118.0 127.0 7.6 34.6 6.2 8 crst 352 4.8 547 48.4 62.7 29.5 35.6 5.6 9 rdw 291 18.1 377 44.4 50.4 13.5 22.8 5.8 Cur Eps from brokers estimates - bkgh looks a bit strange! Personally I avoid bkgh and gfrd cos mainly high end London. Worth noting ftse100 av Per is about 14. This means if psn and tw had Per of 14 they would be twice the price, the rest (except bkgh) more so. Just sent this on tw board but can't get the spacing right. If you copy the table to a SS use space as delimiter. Bol

I am tempted to increase my holdings in psn, because the plunging sp in builders is a bit worrying. In 2008 tw, bdev and rdw almost went bust while psn sailed through the banking crisis, because they had cash ie –ve gearing. So it is surprising to me that psn has been hit just as hard as the other builders in terms of decrease in sp since Brexit Coy Gear%, Decr% Psn -23.2, 33.6 Tw - 8.2, 34.1 Bdev -5.0, 37.3 Bwy 2.4, 33.8 Crst 3.6, 38.8 Rdw 18.1, 26.8 This infers to me buy psn, tw and bdev and sell the rest.

Too true - all their income in Dollars. Pound lowest level against Dollar for 31 Years. All this as IoT taking Off. But 20.3% of my Port so can't buy any more! Who do you use to invest in Asia, and which Asian coys do you hold?

Hi Josh I realise Builders are cylclical but when they are in growth mode I use my growth factors (EpsG and Peg) to calc Justified price now and in the future (next results). Imho there is no sign of the cyclical downturn, nor will there be until enough houses are being built. Critical to all calcs is forecast EpsG. I have noticed (for all Builders) the EpsG increases as the results date approaches, so rather than assume the EpsG forecast is correct, I use a combination of previous EpsG and forecast EpsG for my calcs,so diluting the affect of the Brokers estimates. Bvs is the opposite of psn and has underperformed all the other builders by a long way (management!), so must have a far lower Peg than psn. If the govt does anything about dirty money in London it will affect crst and to a lesser extent rdw. Imho rdw is the best value, tw and bvs the worst.

Hi Josh I have a completely different system of analysis from you, because I look for growth rather than value. You proclaim rdw as best value followed by bvs and crst. My system based on guessing the future EpsG and justifiable Peg, puts rdw top followed by bdev and gfrd. Gfrd, crst, bkgh & bvs I mark down cos of London (dirty money) effect. My calcs show bvs as being overvalued anyway! Imho both rdw and bdev are well undervalued, so have a look at bdev, who have drifted like rdw. A previous poster said he regarded Builders as being a growth sector (as opposed to cyclical) and I agree with him - they are growing now. At some point the cycle will end and sp will plummet, but not on the horizon yet. The odds of Brexit are increasing, which is the only thing that could spoil the party. Brexit Bit !!! Was it Gove who said NHS would have more work to do if we let immigrants in? NHS relies on immigrants! Only the FatCat administrators and managers are British. For years we have not trained enough Doctors and Nurses, so we import the from the rest of the World. Enough of this rant - I have plenty more. I totally respect your analysis, but if Cameron really does do something about Dirty Money, I think crst will suffer. Look up their Web site and see their prices. Done well this week cos of tw effect. Still have no shares cos they are overvalued Imho. Have a good weekend.

If the Govt stops this money laundering, the market for the most expensive housing in London will collapse. This is bound to have a knock on effect down the ladder, which could affect bkgh, crst and to a lesser extent rdw and bvs. Josh No news is bad news. All builders except rdw, improving today. Another reason for rdw falling back (in comparison with other Builders) is that they are holding on to their profits, as opposed to increasing divis. This gives them the potential to increase earnings so could well be the best value now. Bol

I am not a Chartist, but the reason for the falls in builders sp is because of the possibility of Brexit, which I reckon has depressed Builders sp by about 20% on average. Fundamentals are still good, increasing EpsG and Margins. Tw stated there was no significant effect on Sales due to the possibility of Brexit. So Market and Chartists overreacting as usual! I suggest you get out of your Short position soon. As we approach 23rd June I expect Builders to go North as the chances of Brexit diminish. Watch Brexit Oddschecker and Brexit Pollofpolls. In order to calculate the true value of a company, Per and Peg are crucial - bargain now. Imho you cannot just look at Charts, what is far more important is Company fundamentals and the affect of Political decisions. ie The Real World. My profit from Builders has decreased significantly recently, but I won't sell cos I think even with Brexit they are undervalued now! Don't understand your Link, I thought I would get a Chart showing a double dip or something, Anyway Bol

Best way to Copy tables is go via Notepad to Excel (inserting commas in Notepad if needed). Hope you can make sense of it. Note. 5 Cols of Nos in for all dets Except ProjP - 4 Cols - 1st col meaningless, ProjP for last Year (Price known!) This is part of a much bigger system I have, so not sure if everything is correct - ie hacked it all together! As an accountant I imagine you are an Excel wizard, but am I old fashioned and don't know if you bother with that any more? Not really looked at the other Coys - bargains all over the place. Short term buy tw for 5% Divi, watch sp go up and sell before Ex Div Date (2nd June), buy back once sp recovers after Ex Divi - too simple? I look forwards to arguments/discussions about how wrong my analysis is. Given my numbers crst should be 635 now. Oddschecker Brexit best Odds 11/4 from 2/1, ie going out fast, cos of Obama the Great! Daft thought for the Day. If Trump and Corbyn get in, what is the price of spoons in Alaska? Bol

Apologies for spacing! Last looked right when I sent it but ignores Tabs and shrinks Spaces. What a Pain. bkgh Fac 0.98 Date Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-16 Apr-16 Apr-16 Price 2639 2894 2198 2198 2198 N Eps 276.9 405.9 231.0 231.0 231.0 Eps Gr 46.6 46.6 -16.7 43.0 43.0 Per 9.5 7.1 9.5 9.5 9.5 Peg 0.205 0.153 -0.570 0.221 0.230 Proj Prc 3849 2198 3774 3922 bvs Fac 0.31 Date Dec-15 Apr-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Price 989 832 1153 1153 1153 N Eps 93.6 112.1 109.0 109.0 109.0 Eps Gr 19.8 19.8 16.6 20.0 20.0 Per 10.6 7.4 10.6 10.6 10.6 Peg 0.534 0.375 0.637 0.529 0.500 Proj Prc 1050 1153 1187 1122 crst Fac 0.48 Date Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Price 567 478 699 699 699 N Eps 48.4 60.5 59.7 59.7 59.7 Eps Gr 25.1 25.1 23.3 24.0 24.0 Per 11.7 7.9 11.7 11.7 11.7 Peg 0.467 0.315 0.503 0.488 0.500 Proj Prc 635 699 703 720 psn Fac 0.31 Date Dec-15 Apr-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Price 1973 1892 2129 2129 2129 N Eps 165.0 220.8 178.0 178.0 178.0 Eps Gr 33.8 33.8 7.9 30.0 30.0 Per 12.0 8.6 12.0 12.0 12.0 Peg 0.354 0.254 1.514 0.399 0.400 Proj Prc 2181 2129 2565 2573 tw Fac 0.31 Date Dec-15 Apr-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Price 197 176 228 228 228 N Eps 14.7 18.6 17.0 17.0 17.0 Eps Gr 26.8 26.8 15.7 28.0 28.0 Per 13.4 9.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 Peg 0.500 0.351 0.854 0.479 0.480 Proj Prc 213 228 252 253

bdev Fac 0.82 Date Jun-15 Apr-16 Jun-16 Jun-16 Jun-16 Price 627 514 751 751 751 N Eps 44.6 65.2 53.6 53.6 53.6 Eps Gr 46.3 46.3 19.7 43.0 43.0 Per 14.1 7.9 14.0 14.0 14.0 Peg 0.304 0.170 0.711 0.326 0.320 Proj Prc 864 751 897 881 bwy Fac 0.73 Date Jul-15 Apr-16 Jul-16 Jul-16 Jul-16 Price 2411 2289 3035 3035 3035 N Eps 231.0 332.9 283.0 283.0 283.0 Eps Gr 44.1 44.1 25.9 42.0 42.0 Per 10.4 6.9 10.7 10.7 10.7 Peg 0.237 0.156 0.414 0.255 0.240 Proj Prc 3189 3035 3424 3217 gfrd Fac 0.82 Date Jun-15 Apr-16 Jun-16 Jun-16 Jun-16 Price 1709 1278 1837 1837 1837 N Eps 118.0 152.5 126.0 126.0 126.0 Eps Gr 29.2 29.2 7.5 28.0 28.0 Per 14.5 8.4 14.6 14.6 14.6 Peg 0.496 0.287 1.947 0.521 0.520 Proj Prc 2117 1837 2188 2185 rdw Fac 0.82 Date Jun-15 Apr-16 Jun-16 Jun-16 Jun-16 Price 447 370 510 510 510 N Eps 44.4 69.3 50.7 50.7 50.7 Eps Gr 56.0 56.0 14.1 46.0 46.0 Per 10.1 5.3 10.1 10.1 10.1 Peg 0.180 0.095 0.713 0.219 0.220 Proj Prc 651 510 653 657