Member Info for Nige_W

Excel Calcs. To estimate current share price and next YearEnd share price. Assumptions. No Brexit! The last results of Coys reporting are not very different from previous results, which infers that EpsG, Margins ... .should not change much (regardless of forecasts!) Explanation of Table to follow. Price, N Eps & EpsG – fixed Data. Your Data, for next YE price. Enter your estimate for EpsG, 2nd last Col (in EpsG row) & Copy to Last Col Enter your estimate for Peg, Last Col (in Peg row) Excel Calcs for each Company. Fac = (CurrDt - LastDt) / 365 ie (Apr-16 – Jun-15) / 365 for bdev Per = Price / NEps Peg = Per / EpsG Then Current Price should be ProjP (3rd Col) = PrevPr + (PrevPr * EpsG) / 100 * Fac Then YearEnd Price should be ProjP (4th Col) = PrevPr + (PrevPr * EpsG) / 100 & Copy to Last 3 Cols as Price Adjust for Your EpsG ProjP (5th Col) = PrevPr + (PrevPr * YourEpsG) / 100 Adjust for Your Peg ProjP (6th Col) = YourPeg / PrevPeg * PrevPrice Summary. Coy, CurP, ProjP, YeP Bdev, 514, 864, 881 Bwy, 2289, 3189, 3217 Gfrd, 1278, 2117, 2185 Rdw, 370, 651, 657 Bkgh, 2894, 3849, 3922 Bvs, 832, 1050, 1122 Crst, 478, 635, 720 Psn, 1892, 2181, 2573 Tw, 176, 213, 253 CurP Fri 22/4/16

Came up trumps. Should see Odds of Brexit increasing and later Polls showing an improvement in %age to remain. This should result in a sp increase on Monday (for all Builders not just crst). Josh I suggest you use some cash to top up your Builders Shares. Obama's statement will not be forgotten tomorrow (as it is discussed in Pubs/Clubs over the next few weeks, so this could be the Low Point. Bol

This is a subscription based Mag which I don't want to join, so could you please quote relevant passages. As I said EpsG and Margin increasing in the latest reports.

Congratulations (‘fairly’ Junior Accountant?) Josh, for an excellent summary of the Questor Article. I was thinking of a similar criticism, but you do it far better than me! I remember you said the ways to calculate the value of Coys are different from mine, because you look for value (as opposed to future growth Potential). Basically I look at Per, Peg, EpsG and Margin, for growth Coys. A decrease in EpsG and/or Margin is a indicator of an issue to me, which has not happened in any of the last results. I know Builders are regarded as cyclical, but right now they are growing, so maybe better to look at them from that point of view. Seems to me you are a bit fickle and your favourite Coys varies between bvs, rdw and crst. My problem with this is they are all southern based where there is a potential bubble developing. Imho Brexit is the Major concern for Builders and I agree with your conclusions. So watch how Brexit PollofPolls and OddsChecker (Bookies) vary. I think Obama will move the odds significantly when he makes his statement (and Builders Sp). One thing to remember about the useless Pollsters, do they include postal votes (from 2 M Brits in Europe) or EU’s in Britain (who are applying to become Brits so they can vote), and which way will they all vote? Also totally agree with your conclusion of building a position and buying on weakness. It would be nice to have 50% cash and be able to build a position but as usual I’m all in. I have some underperforming Tech stocks to move to Builders now! I intend to produce a Summary of how just how Under/Over valued Builders are right now, but need to check out numbers first. Bol

UKChips About to Explode- Have a read of SteakB 21/2/16 SteakB Won't dispute your numbers - but if 85% domination of Cell Phones Sw, which will increase to 100% creating 15% growth in a growth market (albeit only 6% as opposed to 15% to 20%) cannot be bad. Imho that justifies a Peg of 1.5 alone. Then there are Servers, IoT (big one Cars, but the money more likely in labels), partnerships ... This new business is not built into the value of the Company. If I sell bread from a shop I will get a steady income, but if I start selling cakes as well I will probably increase my income. In normal trading it will cost more to make Cakes - Computing is not like that - How much wood can a fire Burn? Moat - Yes arm is uncoiling into a Gorilla. Peg - An estimate of comparative value for growth Coys, but only if they can maintain their EpsG. Arm should increase their EpsG significantly as IoT becomes more widespread, justifying a much higher Peg. My point about arm income (41% US, 59% Se Asia) is that it is not dependant on Brexit, (and US, Ok) but I don't know how much income comes from China (mainly S Korea, Japan, Taiwan ...) But does it matter - these will be Chinese exports. Curr Peg = 1.00. Peg Dec 11 = 2.69. So if prospects for arm as good as they were in Dec-11 then the Sp should be 2.69/1.00 * 10.24 = 2744. But could be wrong again!

No more Builders results until bkgh in June, then a bunch in September, so could be a quiet time now. But Imho they are all undervalued now by a considerable amount (Brexit/China). Bwy, tw & psn all reported better than expected results (last 3 reports) with no sign of weakness (EpsG around 40% with increasing margins). They say sell in May but referendum in June might release the hand brake, or before if as I expect, the bookies/polls show there is almost no chance of Brexit. Bol

Hi SteakB My holding in arm is 16% of Port with just 2 % profit. I do not know why they are so much out of favour now (ie how does Brexit / China affect arm? Income from SE Asia 59%, US 41%) My argument (from Eps) is they should be valued at over 1600 now and will not sell any until that is reached. Probably your strategy of working from Peg is a better idea, buy/hold until Peg>1.5 then sell some and buy back on weakness. Sp not going to be 1600 any time soon, so I will just hold. Too risky to sell and hope to get back in before a surge. BoL

Dividends These numbers come from many different sources and have been stuck together by me, so there could be many mistakes! Please correct/add data as you like on this Thread (Divis). Best to copy to notepad & then to Excel before sorting to a Diary. 01/01/01 for spacing, a Real date means there is a RNS on lse.co.uk in RNS for Coy. Coy Event Ye Date Pre Close Dec Date Ex Div Man Stat Paid Amount bdev Int Res 30/06/15 01/01/01 25/02/15 23/04/15 13/05/15 20/05/15 4.80 bdev Fin Res 30/06/15 09/07/15 09/09/15 29/10/15 11/11/15 20/11/15 20.30 bdev Int Res 30/06/16 13/01/16 24/02/16 28/04/16 01/01/01 20/05/16 6.00 bdev Fin Res 30/06/16 01/01/01 07/09/16 01/01/01 01/01/01 01/01/01 0.00 bkgh Fin Res 30/04/15 20/03/15 17/06/15 01/01/01 01/01/01 30/09/15 90.00 bkgh Int Res 30/04/16 08/09/15 04/12/15 01/01/01 01/01/01 01/01/01 0.00 bkgh Fin Res 30/04/16 01/01/01 15/06/16 01/01/01 01/01/01 01/01/01 0.00 bvs Fin Res 31/12/14 01/01/01 23/02/15 26/03/15 15/05/15 22/05/15 23.00 bvs Int Res 31/12/15 01/01/01 17/08/15 24/09/15 01/01/01 20/11/15 13.70 bvs Fin Res 31/12/15 19/11/15 22/02/16 24/03/16 15/01/16 20/05/16 26.30 bwy Int Res 31/07/15 10/02/15 25/03/15 28/05/15 05/06/15 01/07/15 25.00 bwy Fin Res 31/07/15 07/08/15 13/10/15 03/12/15 11/12/15 13/01/16 52.00 bwy Int Res 31/07/16 01/01/01 23/03/16 01/01/01 01/01/01 01/01/01 0.00 bwy Fin Res 31/07/16 01/01/01 11/10/16 01/01/01 01/01/01 01/01/01 0.00 crst Fin Res 31/10/14 01/01/01 27/01/15 12/03/15 01/01/01 08/04/15 10.20 crst Int Res 31/10/15 19/05/15 16/06/15 24/09/15 01/01/01 08/10/15 6.40 crst Fin Res 31/10/15 17/11/15 26/01/16 10/03/16 01/01/01 08/04/16 13.30 gfrd Int Res 30/06/15 01/01/01 18/02/15 19/03/15 13/05/15 08/04/15 22.00 gfrd Fin Res 30/06/15 08/07/15 16/09/15 22/10/15 26/10/15 25/11/15 46.00 gfrd Int Res 30/06/16 13/01/16 25/02/16 24/03/16 01/01/01 07/04/16 26.00 gfrd Fin Res 30/06/16 01/01/01 14/09/16 01/01/01 01/01/01 01/01/01 0.00 gle Int Res 30/06/15 01/01/01 25/02/15 05/03/15 15/05/15 02/04/15 2.70 gle Fin Res 30/06/15 03/07/15 28/09/15 19/11/15 01/01/01 17/12/15 7.30 gle Int Res 30/06/16 01/01/01 22/02/16 03/03/16 01/01/01 03/03/16 4.50 gle FinRes 30/06/16 01/01/01 26/09/15 01/01/01 11/12/15 01/01/01 0.00 psn Fin Res 31/12/14 01/01/01 24/02/15 20/03/15 16/04/15 02/04/15 95.00 psn Int Res 31/12/15 02/07/15 18/08/15 01/01/01 04/11/15 01/01/01 0.00 psn Fin Res 31/12/15 07/01/16 23/02/16 03/03/16 01/01/01 01/04/16 110.00 rdw Int Res 30/06/15 01/01/01 09/02/16 31/03/16 01/01/01 31/03/16 4.00 rdw Fin Res 30/06/15 01/01/01 08/09/15 24/09/15 10/11/15 13/11/15 4.00 tw Fin Res 31/12/14 01/01/01 03/03/15 09/04/15 01/01/01 20/05/15 1.32 tw Spec 1 31/12/14 01/01/01 03/03/15 21/05/15 01/01/01 03/07/15 7.68 tw Int Res 31/12/15 23/04/15 29/07/15 20/08/15 01/01/01 02/10/15 0.49 tw Fin Res 31/12/15 16/11/15 01/03/16 07/04/16 11/01/16 20/05/16 1.18 tw Spec 2 31/12/15 01/01/01 01/03/16 02/06/16 01/01/01 15/07/16 9.20

Hi Josh Still checking out my new system, but rdw looks the best value by far! Calc by Per rdw lowest, Calc by Peg rdw lowest. Lowest because of lowest Divis. rdw Per and Peg unnaturally low for anyone who thinks of value or growth. I am surprised Brexit is affecting Builders more than most other Ftse100 (somebody mentioned they are the best defensive stock for Brexit). I put some numbers together for Divis to create a Diary. I hope you have held your psn (top of class) and sold your bvs (bottom of class) - they tend to stay in the same places! Bol

Hi Josh I don’t really think we disagree about anything much. Mebbe I could do better with bvs, crst and rdw. Bwy falling away right now so probably a good buy. DivHunter has got the right idea – 3 * Value and 3 * Divis in 7 Years – Good enough for me and as safe as Houses! There will be no Brexit and after June the market will rally. So could be a good idea to sell everything now and buy back 22nd June. I haven’t traded anything since June last year, and the hsbc computer has probably forgotten I even exist. As I said I looked up Nav and Roce (which I really think only apply to coys with a large amount of debt). Perhaps we are in the same place now because you watched Divi coys and I watched Growth coys. They have merged with Builders, producing an ideal situation. By a Peg rating they are all massively undervalued, by Divis they are as good as any. Divi return should be about equal to last Divi * EpsG. If EpsG = 0 then Divi = last Divi. Builders have the potential for increasing Eps. Nobody is perfect and we all have disasters. I am 72% down on nano, 61% down on fxif, and 20% down on agma. I should never have let this happen, but I am stupid, and believe in their potential. If any Tech has potential it is arm (1% down). Nice to have bankers like psn (40% up), and sge (58% up). Bol

Hi ValueMB, I think growth opportunities exist for all builders, but equally. Josh says due to the efficiency of psn they cannot improve as much as the others. The amount of reinvestment you make (as opposed to Divis) is dependant on your plan. If psn can recruit the people they need and still produce 3* growth and 3* Divis over the next 7 years, I will be very happy! They have the highest margin and the most cash in the Bank. I see no reason they will have anymore recruitment issues than the other Builders. Do you work for Leyland or Rolls-Royce? I think tw has the biggest land bank, but is that good or a liability if land prices go down? Rdw doesn’t pay much Divi, so can reinvest to grow, but so can psn, who don’t know what to do with all their cash! When I was at school the first year, I was bottom in Chemistry (never done it before) and the teacher bullied me. Second year I was third in the class, and third year I was top by a clear 20%. I think that is most unusual. Or to put it another way. Josh. Bvs have underperformed over the last 5 years and in my opinion need a change of management/culture to be able to compete with other Builders. How often does this happen (go from last to first). As I said they have more potential, but will it be realised? I won’t touch them until I see some +ve movement in the Sp. As I said before shut the shop down, count Divis and start whittling the spoons. Don’t bother to look at Sp until after 23rd June, at least for psn. Imho psn is strong and safe – a Banker – Trade with the others if you like. Bol

Congrats! Say you bought 1000 shares in psn 7 years ago (cost £7,000, now worth £22,500) you will have just received a Divi of £1,100, as opposed to Utes - no increase in value (Cost £7,000 now worth £7,000) and you will have just received a 5% Divi of £350. But if you had bought £7,000 in tw (17p on 27/2/09), bdev (83) or rdw (149) you would have done even better because they almost went bust. Of course this is in retrospect and they could have gone bust. This just illustrates how great (and undervalued) this sector is. Penfold. Psn was never in danger of going bust, so consider where they will be after 7 more years! Josh. I agree bvs, crst and rdw have more potential and intend to buy into rdw. Still rewriting my system, with the object of relating growth/yield to value (amongst other things – never ending!) Best of luck all and have a good w/e

Hi Josh As I say I watch bvs and when I see their sp start moving I will be ready to invest in them. Market sentiment is against builders in general and bvs in particular. For a coy like psn growing at about 30% pa to have a Per of 12 giving a Peg = 0.3 is really good value. Any Peg less than 1.0 is good – if it was 1.0 the share price would be 2075 / 0.3 * 1.0 = 6917. Maybe wishful thinking! Bvs Price = 888, Eps = 111, Per = 8.00 EpsG = 20 so Peg = 8 / 20 = 0.4 So if Peg = 1.0 Share price would be 888 / 0.4 * 1.0 = 2220 Also wishful thinking. Both are undervalued but what makes it even madder is they both give good divis as well! Some time ago I was criticised for regarding Builders as a growth sector (so cannot regard Peg < 1.0 as good value). I still think building can be regarded as a growth sector until supply meets demand (and when will that happen?) On the other hand, you can look at them as value coys producing income via divis like the big utility coys. Here again the builders are as good as any ute producing the same or better yields. Unlike Utes the builders have cash in the bank (as opposed to massive debt) and are growing (as opposed to static revenue). This year psn gave 5% yield, next year they will probably give 5% again, but will be 30% bigger ie 6.5%. Utes 5% this year, hopefully 5% next year! As you said tw, bdev and rdw almost went bust due to the banking crisis. They make hay when the sun is shining and have no 5 year plan. The situation in 5 years time could be completely different from now. For a meaningful 5 year plan have a look at arm (link to arm presentation on arm board). This leads me to the downside of (cyclical) builders. Must get out before it all goes off! A decrease in margin is probably the best indicator. The biggest builder (by Mkt Cap) varies between tw 5758, bdev 5664 and psn 6350 ie now psn by quite a long way. They have their own agenda and no 5 year plan (that they reveal!) I can’t see bvs sp improving much in the short term until they start producing some good results. Bvs might outperform psn by a mile over the next 3 years, if so I will be there. Bol and hold on to psn!

Hi Josh A bundle of results now reported, and things look so good for Builders! The significant thing to me is that in all (I think!) cases the Eps has increased by a greater percentage than revenue, indicating improving margins. Basically, since the Builders can sell everything they put up, they can charge what they like, so the coys that improve their margins the most should be the most profitable. I realise this is a massive oversimplification. Many years ago (when I worked for Geo Wimpey) the selling price of the houses was based on what the sales team thought they could sell them for (regardless of cost), so this enables increased margins. I have not looked at this in detail, but I think the smallest increase in margin was bvs. My port now consists of 65% builders (which is a bit worrying), on the other hand as margins increase, maybe it is the only place to be. Didn’t know you could just buy a dividend, I thought you were only entitled to it if you held them when the results were announced. So I expect a 5% decrease in price on 3rd March, but I will hold on to them anyway. I really appreciate your analysis and looked up NAV. So you are saying bvs has twice the value of psn, but I think (as you imply) that is a result of psn’s outstanding performance. Best of luck and hang on to psn!

Hi Josh My new system will tell me what I think Sp of psn should be. Rewriting my system at the moment. I just overwrote all my Coy files with test data, which is really annoying (one of the major issues with computing is version control), fortunately I have BackUps, but should not need them, cos new system is going nicely. Soon I will have some major revelations to make! My point is Builders are being taken down by the Ftse as opposed to any weakness in their market, which is improving as demand increases, because not enough houses have been built since 2008 – the shortage is increasing every year! Their performance is generally excellent right now, but the share prices could well go down until the referendum, (I think that is a forgone conclusion now, if for no other reason that, if Brexit, automatic exit of Scotland from UK and possibly Wales and NI). Ie UK will consist of nothing more than England, the Falkland Islands and some Tax Havens! Psn has a vast cash pile, never really bothered by the Banking collapse and will sail on, with no worries. This is a class act (hate to say unlike bvs – don’t know too much about crst). I assume that if I buy more psn now, I won’t be entitled to the Divi, but where does that Divi go? The seller lost it (sold before X Div Date). Not bovvered too much, shop closed, counting Divis and whittling spoons in the woods quite happily! Bol

Revenue increased 13%, to 2.9 Bn from 2.6 Bn Pbt increased 34%, to 638 Mn from 475 Mn Margin increased to 21.9% from 18.4% Eps increased 39%, to 173 from 124 Net Cash increased to 570 Mn from 378 Mn Yield 5.3% ie Excellent growth with high yield. Unless there is another Banking crisis this is fantastic value.

I thought arm was hugely undervalued before I read your link and now I think it is even more undervalued! Dec-13 price 1106, NEps 20.6 - Arm's own numbers Feb-16 Price 937, NEps 30.2 ie Price should 50% higher (than 1106) not lower. The 5 year plan shows where the coy is going and how little it is dependant on apple, imagination... Convinced it will take off soon.

Just added Divis and Events to tw board. Idea is to relate events to Sp movement, and timing of Sells (post XDivDate), to Buys for next Divi. So I plot share price movement (base 100) for all (my 7) Building Coys and see how the events affect Sp. I could do that (but don't), I go thru another stage of getting the average of the 7, and plot the relative performance against the average. Don't like to say this but makes bvs look even worse! As you say, market sentiment is against bvs because they have underperformed, so the Sp price is low, but will Ritchie get it back together again?

bvs definitely overdue an improvement. Your numbers may well indicate a change in fortune but Past performance 31/12/10 to 26/12/14 where 31/12/10 = 100 bdev 505, bkgh 289, bwy 306, bvs 216, psn 390, rdw 220, tw 422 and 26/12/14 to 12/2/16 where 26/12/14 = 100 bdev 118, bkgh 127, bwy 131, bvs 95, psn 121, rdw 140, tw 127 For me to invest in bvs I need to see a big improvement in results. Past performance disclaimer ... Still think you are better in rdw or bwy. Bol

Hi Josh rdw down (9.8%) more than any other builder this week (except bkgh -11%). You said on tw board, analysis of coys is meaningless at this time of carnage and I agree with you in the short term. But, best to have your money in value coys. Imho rdw is the best value now so move from bvs to rdw or bwy (down 5.2%) even though too late for divis. Bvs down 8.3% and could be hammered in this climate, when they produce their results! Remember estimates for bvs results were decreasing while bwy, rdw were improving. Divis. That made me think. If you buy shares in rdw now (the seller loses divi cos pre Ev Div), so who gets the divi if you don't? Can you just buy the divi? All is Madness right now - negative interest rates - Is This the End! Btw - new Construction Prog. Loaded History sp for grfd, crst, gls, mcb and rgs and added aht and wos (which I already have on Watch). So now 14 Coys in 2 Groups cos I don't like having more than 7 (max 10) on a graph. My old system was becoming an embuggerance (too many changes without a rethink) so my new system will be written from scratch and will be brilliant !!! Keep the faith - believe in rdw and bwy.