Member Info for Nige_W

My daft system - Chase RNS. Buy �9 k shares before Rns, Sell �9 k before next Rns, (or �4.5 k on bdev and rdw.) So far made gained 29 shares on psn and (based on yesterdays prices) gained 63 on rdw and lost 22 on bdev. Next step Buy �9 k bwy 05/10/16.

What really annoys me is after bdev's better than expected results, to regain £4,500 I have to sell 907 shares @ 496 after buying 885 @ £ 504 - ie lost 22 shares. Don't have to sell until 05/10/16 by which time the price may have rallied a bit.

There are facts and conjecture. Results are facts, everything else is conjecture. After 3 of the biggest Builders (rdw, bkgh and bdev) produce excellent final results how can their Sp go down? I believe at some point their true value will be realised (not holding my breath though). ie bdev > 800, rdw > 600. Don't know much about bkgh cos London based, where the first sign of weakness will be seen. Given the cyclical nature of the Sector the first sign of a downturn will be a decrease in EpsG/Margin of London builders (bkgh, gfrd, crst and bvs). I think the time for me to worry is when the same thing happens to the Shire builders, but they are all still increasing (to embarrassing levels!) Next month bwy will announce their FinRes and if they confirm no real Brexit effect (as well!), maybe the Share Prices will return to a more reasonable level. How is it possible to have such low Per's, Peg's, such high Yield (all improving), while Govt is trying to increase the number of houses built? Liberum will no doubt come out with a prediction that bdev shares are only worth 200 and the sp will go into freefall! End of Rant Quite convinced, I am right and the market and everyone else is wrong! BoL and I look forward to a recovery after people realise just how undervalued bdev and the sector is.

Pre Fin in RNS (05/08/16) very +ve. According to plan Buy £9,000, 05/10/16.

On just 4 deals on 2 dates Ltbh £185 up, Chase Rns £689 up. As I thought it is enhancing profits - but would probably also enhance losses ie Ltbh - £185 Chase Rns - £689. Not too worried because I think the trend in the sector is +ve. Next Deal 05/10/16 bdev, rdw - £4,500, bwy + £9,000.

Coy commanded by Captain, Platoon by Lieutenant - I am Daft!

Hi Enigma, I'm Fine thank you very much. LTBH = Long Term Buy and Hold, and Coys = Companies - an army description of a Company, about 200 men commanded by the most junior Officer, a Lieutenant, or a Limited Company, such as bdev. Ok - I have answered your questions, I was rather looking forward to an argument about why I am Daft or not . I will welcome your views about my last post. I hope this will become a discussion, not really an argument, unlike Brexit where things were going quite mad! Btw - Have a look on psn board which is much quieter than the others, where I explain my investment strategy. Could well be Daft as well. We all have to start from somewhere. BoL.

Recently psn, rdw and bdev have all reported excellent results. No doubt bwy will confirm this next month. This is most annoying - House builders are doing better than ever, margins increasing all the time, yet prices well below Brexit vote. I think there is a real value for any share depending on rate of change of Eps, Per, Peg, Margin ... and all the builders are all massively undervalued. Is this Sector growing or not? Is the Govt going to help builders or not? Is Supply exceeding Demand or not? Are margins increasing or not? Etc. A few people in the City have a lot of influence, but why listen to them as opposed to real published numbers? How long will it take until enough houses are being built to make the margins start decreasing? Anyway the City guys and the Govt created all these issues to begin with. We don't have the workforce to build the houses now, unless we import them from Poland ... Same with NHS and Teachers - some planning! Gove thinks experts are just as likely to be wrong as anyone else. Without any knowledge at all he is probably correct. This proves he has no knowledge at all! Anyway, End of Rant, bdev worth 900 now - The best investment strategy of all is to hold shares in undervalued Coys. Some time their value will be realised. BoL all bdevrs and just hang in there.

Wrong again! Results slightly better than PreFin Rns so price should be 10% up Imho. Don't know what has brought the price down. Maybe US non Farm Data, BofE statement or whatever. What really matters? These peoples opinions or Results. All is Madness, we're Doomed, DOOMED!

For sending this twice. Don't know why!

If you look on the bdev board you will see (Imho) a well reasoned case why I think their Sp will increase significantly. As an Investment Manager, I expect you have to Invest in loads of Coys (which you don't even like). I only have about 12 Coys (which I do like). So, how many Coys do you personally invest in? My hopes are that Rns's and trends can forecast price movements. This is no criticism of your system but obviously rdw was a better better than bkgh, and I suspect bdev will also be later today. Much easier to understand 12 as opposed to hundreds. No doubt you read my plan and I would be very interested in your opinion of it. BoL

If you look on the bdev board you will see (Imho) a well reasoned case why I think their Sp will increase significantly. As an Investment Manager, I expect you have to Invest in loads of Coys (which you don't even like). I only have about 12 Coys (which I do like). So, how many Coys do you personally invest in? My hopes are that Rns's and trends can forecast price movements. This is no criticism of your system but obviously rdw was a better better than bkgh, and I suspect bdev will also be later today. Much easier to understand 12 as opposed to hundreds. No doubt you read my plan and I would be very interested in your opinion of it. BoL

Hi JPT Just re-read PreFin RNS. Very +ve so expectations will be high. Since RNS release the price increased from 373 to 503, but this does little more than reflect most builders rebound post brexit. ie I don't think the optimism is already built into the price. Pbt +20% @ £680m - In Line Expects Cash @ £590m (from £186m) - Ahead of Expects Roce @ 27% (from 23.9%) - No doubt margins also increasing So Anything better than these results should produce a Big rise in Sp (10%?) Roughly equal then small rise in Sp (5%?) Bit less then steady Sp Commenting on the results David Thomas, Chief Executive said: "We have delivered another strong performance for the year. The disciplined growth in completion volumes reflects the strength of our sector leading build and sales teams. Following the EU referendum, it is too early to say what the impact of the uncertainty facing the UK economy will be. The sector continues to receive focused government support, mortgage availability is good and there remains an undersupply of new homes. With a strong balance sheet and forward order book, and industry leading quality and customer service, we remain confident in the positive fundamentals of both the housing sector and our business." ie David Thomas left a big ? over Brexit, which as you said, will hopefully be resolved with the results statement. Looking for 560 tomorrow, over 600 by end of week, 1000 by Year End. I have a Graph! Btw - Have you seen my posts on psn - re Chase the Rns? On trading £9,000 I think I have made £837 as opposed to £305 on Ltbh on just 4 Deals on 2 Dates. Too early to say but looking good. End of test 27/10/16, 8 Deals on 4 Dates. BoL

Welcome aboard mytrader. Afraid I abandoned ship to realise losses to set against gain on Arm before I knew about 30 day rule. CGT only 10% now anyway, so not really worth doing. Back in on 23/09/16. Don't know what caused the little spurt in Sp over the last few days - trading volumes very low. I just hope the Sp remains about this level until 23rd. BoL

Hi DiscoDave Very pleased! As I said I split the rung (1/2 a rung?) of �9,000 between rdw and bdev - �4,500 in each. rdw up 9.9%, bdev up 0.2%, so what I could do now is sell �4,500 in rdw and buy bdev, but I'll stick to the plan. On studying the graphs it seems that after particularly good results the new trading range takes 2 to 3 weeks to become established, so next action 05/10/16, sell �4,500 in rdw and bdev and buy �9,000 in bwy (FinRes). Bought 1150 rdw, now only need to sell 1066 for �4,500 so I have gained 84 shares in rdw (and 29 shares on psn). End of current plan Sell �9,000 bwy 27/10/16, when I will be able to compare my system with LTBH. BoL

Hi JP I expect rdw results to be v good. They retained most of their profit last year (as opposed to paying Divis to us) and whether they want to use that money to increase investment (ie growth) or pay off debts is up to them. Don't think it's necessary to pay off debts much. Nothing has really changed - bldg still growing, so make hay ... Sent a daft post on bdev and in the same way I think rdw should be 700 to 800, but rdw is the most undervalued in the sector and if they declare a half way decent Divi, the Sp could improve a lot. Anyway, I think it should be a good week for builders. Bol

Plotting bdev sp from YEnd to next YEnd. If it was not for Brexit the Sp of bdev would be 800 to 950 now. What does Brexit vote matter - we are still in the EU and will effectively remain in it for Years. Demand remains far higher than supply, so what has changed? finnharps - Ye of little faith! Imho 800 by end of week, 900 end of next week. Could be wrong though. BoL

Since you (DiscoDave and Liberalman) obviously hate each other, please could you both filter each other away. Don't need arguments like this on the Board. Have some respect and remember nobody's perfect - that applies to all of us regardless of wealth, number of children, charity work ... I was amazed by the hatred that came out from Brexit arguments and here it's happening again. I wish you both peace. so you can live long and prosper.

Daft numbers again £3.0 M late Buys 3.5M shares sold, 5.0M shares bought

Do you know of a better source of Trade Vols? If Sets works it could not allow this situation - infers Lse numbers are wrong! This is dangerous dis-information. Intend to Buy some rdw as well tomorrow - at least their Buy/Sell look OK. Seen the fight on psn Board? I just keep out of it all.