Member Info for Nige_W

This one, top left button BDEV Share Price. ie Bdev 1.5 M Sold, 11.2 M Bought. I thought the Set process would balance Buys/Sells. Late Deals (After UT) alone about £1.2 M. I was intending to Buy some tomorrow so I hope the price doesn't rocket! Bol

Just looked at trade volumes Coy, Sold, Bought Bdev, 1.5, 11.2 << bwy, 121, 312 << rdw, 287, 283 tw, 8.1, 9.9 << bkgh, 776, 406 << gfrd, 250, 230 bvs, 237, 519 << crst, 324, 352 << Can these be Correct ???

Congrats on Stockbroking exams. I apologise, somebody from Canada asked the question about how the prices are set here. Did mean market makers - market masters was some account I had. As I said going to sell 9,000 in psn and buy 4500 bdev and rdw. bol with bkgh, as I have said I avoid London based builders.

Hi DD As I said I'm not too comfortable with 67% in builders either, but since I believe the sector is more undervalued than anything else, maybe it is an opportunity - he who dares wins! I will summarise the results Fri 28/10/16, after that nothing more than ManStats until next year. If we get back to PreBrexit levels after the Autumn Budget, it infers about a 15% increase in price, but Imho the prices were already about 25% down on what they should be (Per 11.0). With 3 big Coys reporting Finals, I think the Brexit uncertainty effect will be diminished, but I really don't expect a 40% increase by end of year (True Value), I guess 20 to 30% + Divis. Better than 0.5% from Banks. Hi Liberalman You asked a question some time ago about share price being dependent on Supply/Demand or market masters. The problem is from trading volumes we don't know whether the trades are Buys or Sells. All in all it must be Supply/Demand driven, whatever the market masters do. They won't have a job for long if they get it wrong. Did you get any decent answers? Live long and prosper

Hi DD I watch 32 Companies and invest in 12, so I set up a system to update the Portfolio, individual Coys, Deals (LiFo), CGT, Sectors, Graphs etc automatically. All that was needed was an extension to the diary system to do the RNS Buy/Sell, but yes, when only 5 Coys I could have just made a note in a Diary. I watch 10 Builders and can very easily extend the system to include all of them. Builders already made up 53% of Port before Brexit. The £10,000 I am talking about is a separate roving lump or rung. It will always be invested - just jumps from 1 company to another. I already have shares in the 5 companies I mentioned. After I get my arm money, Builders will make up 67% of Port (as currently planned). It is more than I would like in any single Sector. Could you suggest some other Coys for me to look at? For completeness read £9,000 instead of £10,000 cos I can't buy more than £10,000 in 1 day. Need to get this changed. Btw, I have decided to split Buy on 1/9/16 to 5,000 bdev and 5,000 rdw (both to be sold 5/10/16 abd). Last year rdw rocketed on interims (11/2/15) then plummeted on Finals (8/9/15). The reason for the decrease was disappointing Divis declared, so hopefully better news this time, and a decrease in debt. Can't ignore rdw cos it looks the best value. Anyway, still enjoy programming so why not? BoL

By revealing my plan before it is in operation, there can be no doubt about me manufacturing results. Been investing since 96 but got stung big time by dotcom bust 2001, (not that I invested in any dotcoms but spill over affected quality coys in the sector like sge, arm, pon, log, cmg, lnb, fi, sem, diag ... only 1st still exists the rest bought by US, EU and Far East when they were cheap). Late 2013 I sold off all my remaining Peps/Isas to consol in 1 (Hsbc) account account to start trading again. On searching for growth Coys I found builders and almost no tech stocks left, so I got into builders. On seeing the divis I thought why not just chase the divis, then since the big changes in prices occur on Rns releases, why not chase Rns's. So set up my program to suggest buying 1 week before Rns and sell 1 week before next Rns. Only just finished that program. At the moment my system only works for 5 building coys, bdev, bwy and rdw - Ye 30/06/07/15 - and psn, tw - Ye 31/12/15. If it works well, I might extend it to work for all my Coys and have multiple rungs. The difference between builders and my other coys is that builders are steady, while techs fluctuate wildly depending on news, so I don't think there is much point in extending it for the other coys.

You can check it out yourself. Test Plan from 19/08/16 to 27/10/16 1 Rung Tot Value £10,000. ie Every trade is £10,000. 19/08/16 B psn PreInt 23/08/16 £10,000 @ 1748 = 572 Shares 01/09/16 S psn PreInt 23/08/16 £10,000 @ ???? = ??? Shares 01/09/16 B bdev FinRes 07/09/16 £10,000 @ ???? = ??? Shares Can’t also B rdw cos dates overlap (or £5,000 in Both?) 05/10/16 S bdev FinRes 07/09/16 £10,000 @ ???? = ??? Shares 05/10/16 B bwy FinRes 12/10/16 £10,000 @ ???? = ??? Shares 27/10/16 S bwy FinRes 12/10/16 £10,000 @ ???? = ??? Shares 27/10/16 psn ??? Shares @ ???? = £???? bdev ??? Shares @ ???? = £???? bwy ??? Shares @ ???? = £???? – Tot Value £???? Ltbh System 19/08/16 psn £3,333 @ 1748 = 191 Shares bdev £3,333 @ 451 = 739 Shares bwy £3,333 @ 2155 = 155 Shares – Tot Value £10,000 27/10/16 psn 191 Shares @ ???? = £???? bdev 739 Shares @ ???? = £???? bwy 155 Shares @ ???? = £???? – Tot Value £???? Could well be better to go for rdw than bdev, my previous post made rdw seem the best value. Anyway with 3 sets of Final Results to be published soon I am hoping for a large increase in Prices. Imho the Sector was undervalued by about 25% before Brexit vote. BoL

Hi DiscoDave There are many reasons not enough houses are being built. Planning permission, skills shortages and the loss of many small to medium sized companies in the last bust. The capacity to build the houses needed is not there whatever schemes the Govt introduce. I agree with you that one builders results is reflected in the change in sp in the others, but there are variations. One of the graphs my computer plots is Relative Strength starting 1/1/15 at 100 for my 5 companies. Variation min 91 max 136. I manually add RNS labels to see what effect the Rns has, which is a bit tedious. Looks pretty even if it doesn’t mean much! With upcoming finals from bdev, rdw and bwy, I will be able to test my system against simply holding. Interesting to see what happens. BoL

Don't do nav, pbr or nta. I think the time to start worrying is when the (Gigantic) Margins start decreasing. Not enough houses have been built since 2010, so the deficit is getting worse, so the Govt will produce new schemes to encourage house building, so more houses are built, so Eps (& margins) keep on increasing so ... Not only that the big builders are building up cash reserves - tw, bdev and rdw almost went bust in 2008 cos of the debts they had. No worries ! I am not worried what happens beyond 5 Years time - I should be able to find some other shares to buy by then. Might go international - Techs in US and EU - only invest in LSE now and almost no techs left. I have heard of the Value trap (read about it somewhere and decided it was not an issue as far as I'm concerned), so please could you explain why I should worry about this. Can't remember what the article said! As you said Govt intervention and interest rates could spoil the party, but Imho Brexit means almost nothing, if we ever do? Btw I blame the Govt for the last collapse because they were not properly supervising the Banks. With Carney at BoE we should not have these issues again. After arm is sold my plan is 68% builders, 32% Rest which is a bit worrying and I am trying to decrease builders. What did you think of my chasing RNS's and Divi's idea? Only about 7 Buy & Sells to do for the rest of the Year, besides arm adjustment. Apologies for another long ramble, got fed up of data entry to WSheets. BoL

I used to invest in Growth stocks hence Per Peg approach. Got into builders cos of their growth. I realise it is a cyclical industry but has been growing since 2010 and no sign of slowing down. I expect this will continue for at least the next 5 Years, so as far as I'm concerned it is a growth industry. What is unusual for a growth stock is you also get a good Divi. BoL

Where Per = Price / Eps & Justifiable Price = 11.0 / Per * Price Assuming a reasonable Per of 11.0 for Builders (well below Ftse100 and around Historic average). Then table1 assuming no increase in Eps Desc, bdev, bwy, rdw, psn, tw Price, 494, 2354, 372, 1871, 163 Neps, 44.8, 231, 44.4, 167, 14.9 Per, 11.0, 10.2 8.4, 11.2, 10.9 JP, 493, 2541, 488, 1837, 164 UVal 0, 8, 31, -2, 1 So Prices reflect the assumption of no increase in earnings! (Except rdw.) Table2 Brokers forecasts of Eps Desc, bdev, bwy, rdw, psn, tw Price, 494, 2354 372, 1871, 163 Neps, 53.9, 294, 50.4, 191, 17.3 Per, 9.2, 8.0, 7.4, 9.8, 9.4 JP, 593, 3234, 554, 2101, 190 UVal, 20, 37, 49, 12, 17 Brokers forecasts increase as results approach, so my computer calcs its own Eps. Table3 My projected Eps Desc, bdev, bwy, rdw, psn, tw Price, 494, 2354, 372, 1871, 163 Neps, 65.5, 333, 69.3, 226, 19.2 Per, 7.5, 7.1, 5.4, 8.3, 8.5 JP, 721, 3663, 762, 2486, 211 UVal, 46, 56, 105, 33, 30 Makes rdw look much the best value, but they have the most debt and smallest divi. These tables look spot on as I see them now but will probably get mangled again when I post it. You can download the tables into notebook then to excel using "," as delimiter. Hi JP Your system depends on volatility and timing, which is great if you get the timing right. Btw in order to get rid of (arm) Cgt liabilty, I sold all Shares I was losing money on including Nanoco. Just found out I cannot buy them back for 30 days, during which time the price could take off. Timing is not my best attribute! Despite psn excellent results the sp is still behind the other Builders. Bol

Apologies for format. These are estimates. Final results 9/9/16 when they will Declare ExDivDate 27/10/16 and Div amount. Last Year ExDivDate was 29/10/15. Nice to see builders doing well (on the back of psn interims). bdev +10.9%, Fin Res 7/9/16 bwy +11.9% Fin Res 12/10/16 rdw +9.9%, Fin Res 6/9/16 psn +9.3% ie lowest ! tw +9.8% As these Fin Res are published I expect all the builders to surge in price towards PreBrexit levels. Bol

How can sp of other Coys do better than the Coy which increased their Price? All is madness! We are all doomed. Anyway in my system, you can set a rung level ie £ 1,000 or £ 20,000, but for this only 1 rung needed. Computer is telling me to chase Rns's like this: Date B/S Coy Event 01/09/16 S psn IntRes 01/09/16 B bdev FinRes 05/10/16 S bdev FinRes 05/10/16 B bwy FinRes 27/10/16 S bwy FinRes 27/10/16 B psn MStat2 03/12/16 S psn MStat2 03/12/16 B bwy MStat1 30/12/16 S bwy MStat1 30/12/16 B psn PreFin And Chase Divis like this: Action Dec Ex Div Act Dt Fin Date B/S Coy Event Date Date Price Paid Pps Yield 22/10/15 B bdev ExDivDt 09/09/15 29/10/15 653 20/11/15 20.30 3.11 27/11/15 S bdev FinPd 25/02/16 B psn ExDivDt 23/02/16 03/03/16 2,219 01/04/16 110.00 4.96 08/04/16 S psn FinPd 20/10/16 B bdev ExDivDt 07/09/16 27/10/16 #DIV/0! 25/11/16 S bdev FinPd 20/02/17 B psn ExDivDt 21/02/17 01/03/17 #DIV/0! 03/04/17 S psn FinPd Not figured Divis much yet! Whatever I do the format will be rubbish. I only pursue bdev & psn final Divis cos Ints are small, tw overlaps psn and bwy & rdw not much anyway. This needs another rung, but when divis are high it is worth doing. Do you need to hold until PayDate to get your Divi? Hi Volcano Do you use the same system? Hi JP Why don't you create a few pretend Lse worksheets to test Ltbh (do nothing), my system (don't do much), and your system (highly interactive)? I realise you probably enjoy it anyway, while I enjoy programming my system. Whatever system you use I think House Builders is the place to be. At least I have made the same money on arm as I lost on post Brexit Builders. Bol, Dyor and don't blame me.

According to my WSheet bdev +7.85%, bwy +9.45, rdw +7.8%, tw +7.8% this week. All driven up by psn +7.0% this week. But as I said I expect psn to increase over the next few days while the others will drop back a little. FinRes from rdw (not bwy) 6/9/16 and bdev 7/9/16. Computer is telling me to sell psn and buy bdev 1/9/16 (ignoring rdw). I might delay the trade a bit if psn still going North. So still all in and no rungs. Just need to check out rdw and bdev now.

Just increased my holding in psn prior to excellent results which have pushed up all the builders, but many have increased more than psn! Imho the good news is that psn will consolidate to a higher range while the others will soon retrace to their (slightly) higher ranges. Takes a couple of weeks to establish the new range, so no intention of selling until early Sep (bdev, bwy Finals). Very happy with my first trade in new my diary system.

Hi Maddox Great Analysis and reassuring, but I still think they are a bit expensive. Compare Per/Peg of sge with house builders which Imho are all hugely undervalued. Bol

Hi Doze All is lost, the Buys were by SoftBank and the Sells were from Arm's own Directors bonus schemes. SoftBank is buying every share that becomes available. Sells followed by Buys and no price change. There is no counter bid, so it's a done Deal. The Big Players made a truce some time ago to leave arm alone. I am 71% up so can't complain. I would rather hold on to them and in a years time they would be could be worth more than 1700. Whether SoftBank can manage arm or not is questionable. I won't invest in SoftBank. Another one bites the Dust. So sad! Bol

Hi Maddox Is that how you posted yours twice as well?

The market moves in mysterious ways. I was rather hoping for a big drop in price so I could top up my holding. You say Strong Buy, but I'm not buying when Per = 28 and Peg = 2.71. Can't complain - my best stock 98.5% up. Can't sell either, cos have to pay Cgt this year cos of arm sale. I've tried to post this twice - Error 500 - trying to again and probably posting it 3 times!

The market moves in mysterious ways. I was rather hoping for a big drop in price so I could top up my holding. You say Strong Buy, but I'm not buying when Per = 28 and Peg = 2.71. Can't complain - my best stock 98.5% up. Can't sell either, cos have to pay Cgt this year cos of arm sale.