Member Info for Nige_W

Hi CM45, Scoop Great idea. I only see them in Building and here. All their predictions have been wrong. I wonder what the performance of shares they recommend is? Mebbe it is a deliberate idea to mislead? A British General stated a long time ago, "The Infantry don't understand their orders, the Cavalry disobey them and the Artillery have their own agenda." For me it is clear their Analysts are not fit for purpose and should have been sacked years ago. Unless they have their own agenda!? Bol

I agree with you about the moat. Two good articles in Arm News above, Updt1 and Updt2, worth reading. Q4 results showed 50% phones sold had the latest Arm procs which they expect will become 100% - some moat! Don't think peg of 1.5 is at all unreasonable - if it was over 4.0 I would have some concerns. The new markets they are moving into are additional revenue sources, let alone IoT. Even Liberum were -ve about arm which is a great sign. They keep on predicting the demise of Construction. Bol and thanks for pointing out my error - I thought the Mips issue was all History now - decreased prev Eps so increasing cur EpsG.

I apologise. Keep forgetting Mips! My numbers are based Coy Refs figures which show Eps Dec-14 as 18.1 which produces EpsG of 66.9%. Arm bought Ip rights of Mips and are writing off that cost over several years, while Coy Refs regard it as a 1 off Cost. Result arm's Eps Dec-14 24.1. Using 24.1 instead of 18.1 Price 899, Eps 30.2, EpsG 25.3, Per 29.7, Peg 1.17 I still think a Just Peg of 1.5 is reasonable so Just Price 899 * 1.5 / 1.17 = 1147 Much less impressive

Price 897, Eps 30.2, EpsG 66.9, Per 29.7, Peg 0.44 Say Just Peg 1.5 then Just Price = 897 * 1.5 / 0.44 = 3058 Off to the forest to whittle spoons!

Hi volcano and Maddox, I could look up USB and Jeffries, Estimates from 490 to 710 ie difference almost 100%. They have their own agendas. Managers publish whatever they like! I studied Maths a bit to University level (though just 1 subject of 6 in 1st year computing). If in Maths your answer was out by a factor of 10 % our teacher would say good enough for an engineer but its incorrect! To put it another way, if the difference out by > 10% makes me consider their integrity and their agenda? So not even worth watching or reporting! As a Maths guy it could be a good idea to watch who are totally wrong and who is correct. Trouble is you don't know the agenda. Too much work and I can't be bovered! Sage is a great Company. Changed direction twice in recent years, from acquisitions (not very successfully) to a rental system of their software on the Cloud (as opposed to buying) very successfully, which it's managed extremely well (as opposed to Sap who tried to do the same thing). This is a pension fund coy for me - steady away, high margin and a growing monopoly of Sme enterprises accounting software throughout the world. I've had shares in this Coy since 1996 - since Jan-14 they are outperforming my best bldg stock bwy, but watch arm later today. Must stop doing this - far too late! Bol

Totally agree. arm Mrkt Cap arm £13,800 M, img £270 M. arm could buy img with petty cash if it wanted. But arm results out later today so we will see. Bol

ie Just enter Eps and make a spread sheet as follows. Dec-14, Price 995, Eps 18.1, EpsG ??.?, Per 54.9, Peg ??.? - ? no meaning just there for spacing Dec-15, Price 1038, Eps 27.1, EpsG 49.7, Per 38.3, Peg 0.77 - Enter Eps, Calc Per and Peg Feb-16, Price 940, Eps 27.1, EpsG 49.7, Per 34.7, Peg 0.70 - Enter Eps, Calc Per and Peg where Per =Price / Eps, EpsG = (Cur Eps - Prev Eps) / Prev Eps * 100 and Peg = Per / EpsG EpsG is Earnings per share Growth % over the last Year. If any of the above nos/calcs wrong please correct me! Arm is a growth Coy, Eps has increased by an average of about 40% per year over last 5 Years. The average Peg over last 5 Years is about 2.00. Peg is a measure of market sentiment - the more it is over 1.00 the +ve sentiment, under 1.00 -ve. According to Jim Slater any growth Coy with Peg < 1.00 is good value. Justifiable share Price - JSp - Enter Your own Peg - YPeg then JSp = YPeg / 0.70 * 940 where 0.70 is Cur Peg based on Eps you entered and 940 Cur Price. Anyway The number I guessed for Eps 27.1 creating EpsG of 50% while forecast Eps 30.5 so 63.6% EpsG. My point is even if Eps only 27.1 arm is good value. If this makes no sense just ask your 10 Year old Grand daughter to set up the Spread Sheet. Disclaimer All these things work fine in my system but easy to get numbers / calcs wrong in stating them. Can't copy Spread Sheets and Programs here. Big Day - these results could affect Ftse and change the seriously -ve market sentiment! All Imho, Dyor and Bol

Better than expected and Steve Morgan very positive but Sp down 4.27% Hopefully bwy will get the builders moving tomorrow, but market sentiment so -ve anything could happen! Just have to grin and bear it - lost nought if you don't sell. Bol

Ps Arm Final Results 10/2/15, so you are entitled to the divi on all the shares you own on that day. Ex Div Date and Div Payment Date will be published here (on the RNS above) and their Web site www.arm.co.uk Don't sell before Ex Div Date. Div probably won't be much but I think the share price will fly! Bol

See www.upcomingdividends.co.uk/ Dividends are declared on the day of release of Interims and Final Results. You are entitled to the dividend for the number of shares you held on that date, unless you sell (some/all) before the Ex Div Date, in which case the buyer is entitled to the Div on those shares you sold.

Ps and apologies. By half the Eps difference I mean't Eps of (30.5 + 18.1 =) 49.6 / 2 = Eps 25, and I think results might be on Wednesday! And I think they pay UK taxes OK!

Full Year Results on Tuesday. Market sentiment against them cos of Apple growth not up to expectations. Arm doesn't need Apple to grow! They are far bigger than smart phone chips now. Mebbe I'm wrong but as I said if their Eps anywhere near forecast (30.5) they should take off. If they are half of that the Sp will go down (Buy) and adjust as share price bounces back (Sell). If less than 18.1, Sell All as soon as pos! Of course I could be wrong again, so dyor and don't blame me! Bol

Hi Josh, Just got my new CoyRefs which means I have to type it all into my system. I have very little faith in British Brokers who could have their own agenda! Much more encouraging to me is the collapse of Builders today, with the exception of rdw, as you mentioned. A few more results are coming out shortly, which means next week should be a good time for builders. I am in the unfortunate position that I cannot bear to sell my tech stocks to buy more building, when I regard my techs as being even more undervalued! Have you looked at arm? - should be worth 3000 now (as opposed to < 1000) and results out soon. Shorters have destroyed tcm & nano, but I think they will bounce back. Have a look at agma, iomg and fxif. Maxed out right now and hate to sell anything! Only choice is to sell psn to buy rdw on Monday but probably missed the boat again! Hopefully with the new CoyRefs, my new system will tell me what to do! Brokers, Estate Agents, Politicians and Dictators are all of the same family. So Brokers say the share is worth 600, now 441, but when? No doubt in 20 years time the price will be 2000 or more. Means nothing at all. Still unsure of your support of bvs? Needs some sort of movement, are they are asleep? Imho rdw, bwy, bdev & tw is the place to be, and moving between them at the right time (for Divis). End of ramblings, can't believe the time. Bol

Excellent post and thanks for the corrections (Steve Morgan as Chairman) that's what happens when you don't check the details! I will add Crest to my watch list. The reason I originally left them off my list was that I thought it was a group of companies that were merged together about 5 years ago, which could lead to rivalries/jealousy and would need a complete management/Hq reorganization, disrupting their progress in the short term. I have no doubt tw will create a new 5 year plan, but I agree with you tw and bdev are probably too big to be able to adjust to the changing conditions in the market. I think they still have a great future. bwy has been my most successful coy with over 60% return. Bol

Figures look good as you say but bvs have consistently underperformed the other main builders over the last few years. This leads to the -ve sentiment which makes the numbers you quote look good. Dako and Josh. You both question the ability of Ritchie to lead this coy. You must admit these 2 points are fairly damning in terms of market sentiment. But Interims out late this month (27/02/15 last year) and mebbe they have got their act together. For me I need to see something +ve before I would invest in this coy. Josh, I see you also invest in rdw which is almost the opposite of bvs (huge sp growth last year). Their excellent ceo John Morgan has got the coy moving again and is a major shareholder having come out of retirement to take over the company he created. Have you looked at bdev, bwy and tw? Best of luck and look forward to seeing the results.

See http://www.ipinv.com/ 4 People and no portfolio ??? Imho A small outfit who heard of potential loss next year and ran! Probably cos they need to show profits, as the pressures builds up, ie Chancers. But how many more shares do they have to sell? Are they all out now? But, but why didn't the big players just grab these Shares? Sp northwards now with massive potential, but I could be wrong again!

Excellent Summary! But who is selling? The Bod and institutions hold better part of 70% of this coy, value now £35 M - £15 M everyone else. They have £28 M cash! Makes me think either the MM's have got it all wrong (just look at last trades), or some diabolical news is on the way. If the Sp crash is purely due to contracts allowing credit facilities (so delaying cash flow) the sell off is massively overdone, when you have all that cash. To hell with principles (don't buy shares on which I'm losing money), I think I'll top up tomorrow. Bol - exciting days ahead!

I don't deny a crash is coming, it is the nature of this industry, the question is when. Brexit you say is already built into the price, which infers rdw is undervalued. The disaster of 2008 was because nobody could get a mortgage. Don't know what all sorts of other tricks are. So 2 points - one infers rdw is undervalued and the other is dependant on another banking crisis. A banking crisis could happen again, but not much sign of it now. I think building should be OK for next 5 years.

134 k Sold, 194 k Bought yet price lost 30% In a previous post I said I thought it would bounce back wrong again!

Not shorted, coy has a load of cash so cash collection not an issue and channel partners? increase probably a good thing. I am sure this will bounce back. Probably an excellent buying opportunity but against my principles to buy a coy on which I am losing money. Best of luck if you buy more.