Member Info for Nige_W

As you say his major interest is oil, pmo and tlw. The only way to make money on them is by shorting. Anyway good luck to him - I hope he leaves us alone now.

Might explain the small rise today when everything else going South. If NEps anywhere near 30.5 forecast the price should rocket. But if NEps less than 30.5 the price will probably decrease initially - didn't hit the target. ie watch Price go down - when stable buy a bunch! NEps 20.0 = Price around 2000, decrease Peg to 1.5 Price around 1350 (guess). Too late for me to work these numbers out, so do your own maths!

Hi 2227 Don't try to justify rdw to sharetrooper, I suggest you Filter him away. I like your posts cos they are factual even if you seem to be ramping the company a bit. I have not filtered anyone away yet but am tempted to filter sh.trooper, but then I would lose the pleasure of getting annoyed about the sh.t he comes out with. He is welcome to his opinion, but ought to justify this with some sort of facts. Otherwise there is nothing to gain in reading his posts. He posted on bkgh the same rubbish, if he posted on tw I am sure he would get a torrent of abuse for his troubles. Bol

Not bothered what the Sp should be in Dec-16. I try to calculate what the Sp should be now. This is because forecast EpsG for next period is always undervalued. What it should be in Dec-16 is what it should be now + EpsG next Year. So in order to calc the Sp for Dec-15 (Prelims to be published early Feb-16) and because of Mips I can't use Dec-14 results, so I project them from Dec-13 and this jumbles up my prev numbers a bit! Date Price NEps Dec-13 1106 11.0 Dec-15 1038 30.5 EpsG 277.3 ProjPrc 3067 where EpsG = CurNEps / PrevNEps * 100 ProjPrc = PrevPrc * EpsG / 100 ie Sp Dec-15 should be 3067 not 1038 Note This assumes the same peg (Dec-13 = 2.26). Problems with China means the Peg of 2.26 is not justifiable so Projected Price = 3067 / 2.26 * JustPeg Price now 931 !!! Hope this makes sense and Bol

Results Dec-13, Price 1106, NEps 11.0 Results Dec-15, Price 1039, NEps 30.5 Either Price Dec-13 was overvalued by a factor of 3 and Current Price 961 is correct or Price Dec-13 was correct and Price now undervalued by a factor of 3 or something in between? Peg represents market sentiment, now 0.51 Simple calc Projected Price = 961 / 0.51 * Justifiable Peg where 961 = Price today, Peg = 0.51 based on Projected EpsG of 63.6 As ukchips said Arm is not dependant on Apple, but Arm's revenue from Asia 59% and US 41% A bit worrying cos of state of China, but their revenue comes from chip makers based in Asia/US. Over the last few years Arm's Peg has averaged over 2.0. Decrease the Justifiable Peg to 1.5, Projected Price is 3000. My point is the share price is driven by daily traders now, as opposed to the real value of the company. All Imho of course, but a good topic for arguments! Just state your Just Peg and do the calc Bol

Hi My numbers come from Company Refs. The reason from them being different from the published numbers is that Arm bought the intellectual property rights of a company called Mips. Arm decided to write off the cost over a number of years, whereas Coy Refs regarded it as a one off cost. I don't think it alters the idea of my message, that Arm is undervalued by a factor of 2 to 3 ie Sp should be 2000 to 3000. All Imho of course - what do you think a reasonable price for Arm is? Bol

Offer at 216 went straight up to 472 now 183. Madness! News of production facility will slowly filter thru causing a surge in price followed by a gradual decline. Get the buy/sell timing right and good money to be made. Bol

Liontrust bought 165,312 shares, but not reported as buy. What were all those sells about? Now 2p up reflecting this buy, as though the sells never happened. Computer got its wires in a twist?

All will be revealed, no doubt. 3 of the big deals went thru as sells twice 159,600 1,322,400 and 526,000. All at the same price 244.51. ie first sell second buy. If these trades via a broker there would be a difference in price, so Private Deals? Major share holders Liontrust (13.5%) or Toscafund (10.1%) would have to go thru a broker creating a price difference which leaves ce MacSween (15.9%) as the trader. Mebbe he is giving the shares to his kids. Just about anything else would probably be illegal in some way. But, Trading in this coy has been weird for ages now. Fingers crossed and best of luck to those holding this stock.

As I said in a previous post I think agma will fly or it will be bought by a bigger company. Graphene has so many potential uses the demand will be massive. As far as I know no other Coy has a mass production system. ChamleonMan. You invested in agma's potential. Imho that potential will soon be realized. One direction for this Coy - North. I am 16% down on agma, when I am a small & up I intend to buy some more. Bol and hang in there.

Due to a year end …. Up, my system needs all Coys with Ye December adjusting. The first I have to do is Arm, and I noticed: Dec-10 Price 465, NEps 6.4, Per 72.2 Dec-11 Price 602, NEps 8.2, EpsG 27.3, Per 73.4, Peg 2.69 Dec-12 Price 798, NEps 11.6, EpsG 41.6, Per 68.8, Peg 1.66 Dec-13 Price 1106, NEps 11.0, EpsG -5.2, Per 100.5, Peg -19.44 Dec-14 Price 995, NEps 18.1, EpsG 64.5, Per 55.0, Peg 0.85 Dec-15 Price 1039, NEps 30.5, EpsG 68.5, Per 34.1, Peg 0.50 Growth Coy with Peg of 0.50? Gotta be a bargain. Given a Peg of 1.00 Share Price would be 2078 and still cheap. Price now lower than Dec-13 when NEps was 11.0, now almost 3 times that.

The plot thickens. MM's got the price Wrong? 2 buys of £ 64 K and 20 K, 1 Sell of £ 164 K all at the same price 260.1837, but sp goes up! Dont make no sense.

Just looked on advfn. Buys 109,802 sells 11,417 or about 100 k more buys than sells. ie about £ 260 K more bought than sold.

Over the last few days there have been far more buys than sells but almost no sp movement. Today buys of £109K, 83K, 21K and 26K with no major sells. Anyone know wots going on?

11:19 - 264 09:24 - 247 Note Buys yesterday!

If agma needs to raise money to increase production they must have settled on a production method. Also, they are going for it alone (ie not subcontracting production to Dow ...) Indeed, here we go. Can't see a downside - either the Sp will fly or agma will be bought by a bigger player. All Imho and could well be wrong again!

Difficult to understand Wots going on when Shorters lurk. I noticed the same thing with iomg, huge deals apparently going through without affecting the Sp. Now tcm can buy treasury shares (up to 10% MktCap !), I hope this will frighten off the Shorters. ie somebody Shorts Tcm and Tcm buys them as treasury shares - Sp doesn't move. So Shorters will lose money - Great But - Maybe they were only protecting profits they had already made? I said before I don't understand this, and the idea of borrowing shares, selling them and so dropping the price seems more like a (biassed) interpretation of what's really going on. I am down 6.4% on this share but will hold because I think it has great potential, even though it is against my rules which clearly state I should sell them all now! Bol if you also hold them.

Per 39 - Lowest its been in last 5 years. (Based on Brokers consensus of Neps of 30.5 for Dec-15). Cheap as Chips!

Both 398,379 @ 224.375 dated 25/11 worth £ 1.788 M. Is this for real?

Bvs looked weak compared to the other Builders but the numbers looked strong. I still think this is the case and Jim Slater was probably right. Look at Sp in 6 months time. They are probably undervalued now and while you blame this on the Ceo, every Coy has a culture. I know a bit about tw and bdev - a bit of a desperate idea and they both almost went bust. Psn (with highest margins and least Debt) sailed through the crisis. Bvs, bwy & rdw handled it OK. Anyway I have not invested in bvs or (increased my investment in), tcm as intended, which saved me a lot of money. Maybe the best thing is to believe in yourself and do nothing! Pegs, Pers etc I get from Coy Refs set up by Slater, Walker. An essential guide to me but you can do nothing about the shorters (Nano, Tcm) on which I have lost a lot! Worried about Nano but not about Tcm. They are working on buying Treasury Shares whenever their shares are up for sale. Ie Kill the Shorters!