Member Info for Nige_W

As I said I thought bvs looked to me the best value of all Builders. Peg 0.1 @ 943 and now 904! Sp going south since 14/8/15 (with the rest) but by about 10% more than the rest. The (perceived) negative results and the decrease from 943 to 904 looks overdone so could be a buying opportunity, but they have consistently underperformed all the other builders over the last 5 years. Maybe they're getting a plan together and these results are only a temporal anomaly. Haven't calcd new Peg, but don't invest on promises. When Sp heads North I will think of buying. My Brother asked "Why are they so undervalued?", so now I can answer "Somebody knew something was wrong." The BoDs need to get their act together Imho BoL

Hi Mick With the current building slump Sage has just become my most profitable Coy. 50.5% up, Bellway next at 49.9% but I have held Sage longer. Also EpsG for Sep-16 est at 15.1% from 5.5% - looking good!

Don't blame you! The risks are far greater but the potential rewards are also far greater. Invest in 10 Aims with potential, maybe 5 go bust, 4 will be taken over after shorting - undervalued. But maybe 1 is a 10 bagger. This is a buying opportunity for the brave, but not me. Don't try to catch a falling knife - but I am sure it will bounce back.

5 of £257 K varying from 194 to 196 and 1 of £2. 3 M at 236 dated 13/11 ??? Should kick start the price tomorrow.

I agree Arm is an excellent Coy but consider the analysis from your link as worthless. 10 Years ago ie 2005 is meaningless when the Banking Crash was in 2007-08. Divi Growth has been far greater since 2008 in Building Coys. Anyway 10 Years is Ancient History! Cf Brit economy from 1938 to 1948? Historically, Arm has underperformed over the last few years in Sp, but I expect it to do far better from now. Just look at adverts on telly - every other one is talking about IoT or M2M Coms based on Arm. Icon. Can you give me a list of your Holdings so mebbe I can borrow some and sell them? Can't be that simple, but thanks anyway.

Shorting Arm - See: http://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0000595859/all Down from 1.36% to 0.89%, which should be good! Shorting can be used to guarantee potential profits, but still don't understand how it works! Anyway, Arm should buy Telit.com, Imho to dominate the IoT market. Bosses of Arm & Telit far cleverer than me, so I'll leave it to them.

Does this mean they are trying to buy the shares created by the Shorters? That would no doubt stabilize the price and could frighten them away. The worrying thing is that the Sp does not reflect the value of the Company BUT could this manipulation be used by LTBHolders ie Buy when Coy is Shorted. If a Coy is Shorted you may have to wait a while before they give up!

Lord knows whats going on! -ve buys, -ve sells all a bit worrying.

See: http://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B06GM726/all and compare to the Price. This is the reason its going South. Imho it was worth £ 3.50 and still is. Mkt Cap £ 275 m - they have almost double that in signed sales contracts. NigRule 1 - don't try to catch a falling knife. 4% down so can't Buy any more, but looks like an excellent opportunity.

Mean't to add, farmer going short (betting the price would go down), Broker going long, (betting the price would go up). So Shorts and Longs should balance each other - not the case now. Same issue affects Nanoco (but even worse) - if the Sp is artificially low is this a buying opportunity?

In an earlier post I commented on the end of day -ve Buys on Thursday. Are these the Shorts going through? Don't understand the short process (borrowing shares then selling them so flooding the market and buying for real at the lower price you have just created. If this is not manipulating the market don't know what is?) I know it all started in US long time ago by farmers guaranteeing the price of their crops/livestock by selling at today's price regardless of the price in 6? months time. A broker would promise to buy the stock at today's price and everyone was happy! But how can you sell borrowed shares?

Wot are all those -ve Buys about? About 600K

I would be most disappointed if Sp 1300 in 12 Mnths. Peg (equal to other Builders) justifies 2000 now. The decline in Peg from 0.66 to 0.11 over last 5 Years (ie 6*) justifies a Sp of 6000! Not going to happen tomorrow - but in a Year? Imho big growth & big divis justifies a far higher Peg - say 0.4 then Sp 4000. This applies to all builders but to bvs by a factor of 2. Anyway, could be totally wrong again.

Hi Josh. I don't watch ROCE so I looked it up on Investopedia. "ROCE is especially useful when comparing the performance of companies in capital-intensive sectors such as utilities and telecoms.... This provides a better indication of financial performance for companies with significant debt." I don't invest in Coys with significant debt. Margin is lower than the other buiders at 9.6% others range from 12.3 (bdev) to 26.7 (psn). EpsG looks to be as good as the others, but over the last 5 years Sp increased 300% while others increased from 400 (bkgh & rdw) to 600% (Psn) & 750% (bdev & tw - still recovering.) In the last year bvs 25% up while rest up 42% (psn) to 70% (tw). Given the same Peg as the others the Sp would be 2052. I don't have historical ROCE which I think should be pretty similar to Margin (which does not justify such a low Sp). The gradual decrease in Peg (from 0.66 to 0.11 over the last 5 Years) explains why the Sp is so far behind the others. The negative sentiment towards bvs makes me think this is an opportunity to buy a small amount, and top up if it outperforms the others. Best of luck.

A Brilliant reply Josh, I will study it in detail later. Don't hold bvs at the moment, but I will buy some and hold. If they do well I will buy some more. I think bdev has suffered a big decline in Sp (cos ex Div) but still only about 11% (not 20%). Just noticed the spread is almost 10%. Buying at 1026, Selling at 1025 - what is 'Ask 974 about?' Maybe Zebadee has all the answers!

Bvs Sp has dropped by about 20% since high point 14/8/15 (1202 to 1026) while all the other builders have dropped by only 7% to 11%? (Except Bwy no real decrease). There Peg is less than half the other builders at 0.11, (ie if Peg = others Sp would be 2052). Very strong Buy from Slater! Results for 2014 (See RNS 15/8/15) seemed positive. Last 5 Years EpsG 55, 65, 67, 46, 74. Is this all too good to be true?

And about time too! A Daft Story. About 1975 I was working for tw building the pilot plant for the new blast furnace at Redcar, which the Govt has just shut down. My boss applied for planning permission to erect the standard sign at the entrance to the site, but it was refused. There was a huge correspondence file which I partly read and the Council Planners ended up saying the sign would be detrimental to the Environment. On the other side of Clay Lane was the Coke Ovens! What was the planning officer after? There were 3 tower cranes which hung 60 feet by 16 feet Wimpey signs (they were on Wimpey land), but we never got the sign at the entrance, (displayed on every other Wimpey site in the country). Anyway, as I said even if loads of land becomes available to build on, the Govt has yet again destroyed the industry, so we don't have the workforce to do it. The builders will recover to produce the housing required, but it will take time. In the meantime, I still think this is a growth industry (not cyclical) for at least the next 5 Years.

Thanks for the reply.Btw where does the North start (Watford?) No doubt you will have seen the series on the news about house building. If the Govt can affect the market this has got to be the place to be (Builders). Today they highlighted the fact far more young people are renting because they can't afford to buy a house. House prices will remain high because land prices will remain high because councils not releasing land for building quickly enough. Even if they did, the builders have lost so many craftsmen (due to the banking disaster created by the Govt), they are unable to build them much faster. Que serra. If I was still young I think I would migrate to Germany or Sweden. I noticed 2 of Londons big estate agents saying sales are cooling a bit.

Good article (Thisismoney) I didn't realise demand down South still so much more than everywhere else. Do you know rdw sales breakdown? I know they started in Wales and grew into South England. Again very little up North.

Hi Josh I agree with you that bvs looks the best value. My only concern is that they are firm;y based in the South. House completions North 298, Midlands 472, South 2,043 according to their Website, for 2013 - didn' sell any in 2014? Also talk of overheating market and bubble are a worry which imo will hit the South before anywhere else. I hold bdev, bwy and psn and am going to buy a little bvs and tw.