Member Info for Nige_W

A ref would help en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Graham_formula 'The formula as described by Graham in the 1962 edition of Security Analysis, is as follows: V* = EPS * (8.5 + 2g) V = Intrinsic Value EPS = Trailing Twelve Months Earnings Per Share 8.5 = P/E base for a no-growth company g = reasonably expected 7 to 10 year growth rate' ie Value is related to Eps and Grth - Gettaway, never thought of that! From 1962 and 7 to 10 Year ??? and 'He revised his formula in 1974 V* = (EPS *(8.5 + 2g) * 4.4) / Y 4.4: the average yield of high-grade corporate bonds in 1962, when this model was introduced Y: the current yield on 20 year AAA corporate bonds.' Congrats - You could well be right! But I won't bother doing the calc Btw what was rdw peg in 1962 and the intrinsic value in 2008. No offence intended, but Imo all builders are undervalued right now - not just rdw.

of £7.5M late today. Ordinary Deal @ £9.70. Who would do that when sp is 935?

Iom is on Aim so you can expect a bigger spread. The Sp has its own agenda (MM's T/o or whatever). If it was based in one of HMG Tax havens like Channel Isles, I of M or British Virgin Isles etc, you could expect strange price movements, but it is based in Glasgow and Directors hold 19%. As I have said it looks like a good Coy. Spread created by MM's - Sp movement should be determined by the difference between sellers and buyers (which does not seem to happen). Anyway, I see it as being very risky until things settle down and numbers start making some sense, but Imo could do very well. Apologies for not being too helpful. Dyor etc and Good Luck.

5 big buys 1 of £5,5 M tot £6.3M not incl £7.3M UT Could (Just?) be Arm buying more treasury shares but shares not from thin air, they still need sellers. I would be surprised if the price is not up tomorrow.

Hi Mick According to my calcs the sp should be between 2000 and 4000 right now. That's probably cos I'm daft. Still holding on despite 4 % loss. I tell my kids to believe in themselves, trust instinct. Anyway 1300 would be nice!

Nope. Going south now anyway. The share price of iom has its own agenda. The price should reflect the difference between Supply (Sellers) and Demand (Buyers). But, just an Aim coy so we just don't know Wots going On! Many Big Buys and Sells going thru which are not reflected in the price. And when I say big, you try finding another Aim where there are so few Deals but when they happen they are so big. Just 20 Deals today 2 of which > 10 K. T/Over in progress? MM's still holding too many after unsuccessful T/O? Just don't know. I'm 18% up so I watch carefully. Tempted to buy more, but is it a a dive into the Dark Lagoon? Numbers look good Per 17.0, Peg 0.27 based on EpsG 62.8 (optimistic?) and 4 of 5 brokers say Buy. Dyor and best of luck if you hold them.

Upcoming Arm News 08 Sep 2015 4:30 p.m. UKT - Investor Webcast on ARM in Networking and Servers 15 Sep 2015 Analyst & Investor Day 16 Sep 2015 ARM Holdings plc London Roadshow with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, with management 21 Oct 2015 Q3 2015 results. If I was not losing money on this share I would be buying more before these events! £13 Bn Coy. Not easy to takeover.

Probably Arm buying up treasury shares, but these need sellers as well. The share price remained at 950 so I would not be surprised to see a big gain early tomorrow. Imho these shares are massively undervalued by a factor of at least 2 ie should be £20 + Won't happen of course, but hopefully they will make by break even price of £10 Best of luck

At end of trading today (after 4.28) 17 big buys tot £3,000K, not incl £8,085K UT Buy. 1 big sell £ 23K. Last trades 878 to 882 ie Sp 880, just + 4p up on closing! Arm bought 250K as treasury shares, about £2,200K leaving £800K that appeared out of the Ether! I don't claim to understand anything anymore, but US 3% up so that's also a good Omen. Mebbe the directors don't have to notify Lse of the shares they sold if they are dead!

Just noticed last trades - 3 Buys of £ 98K, £265K and £ 37K = £ 400K. Also UT Deal £ 6.24M but am told to ignore UT Deals! Fun on Monday when we find out all the Directors are Dead!

Interesting Article: www.fool.co.uk/investing/2015/08/21/should-investors-sell-arm-holdings-plc-as-intel-corporation-muscles-in/ Of 29 brokers 13 Buys 3 sells Av sp 1230 liberum 650 EpsG 68%, Per 29.8, Peg 0.4 and margins increasing. From Dec-10 to Dec-14 Peg averages out at 1.9. And 1.9 / 0.4 = 4.75 = underval factor So 864 * 4.75 = 4104. Only if margins falling or growth decreasing should the Peg fall - neither of which is happening. Or serious Debts - Gearing -ve ie more Cash than bank Debts. Or fundamental product issues - World Leader Or Markets drying up - Is the number of smart phones sold actually decreasing? This is now only 40% Rev Or All the Chiefs went to the pub, got p....d and are playing Russian Roulette As Sherlock Holmes said "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth,"

Ia I think your 1st point - manipulation - should put them in prison! II To Buy when you have lost money is very brave! Either believe in yourself and go for it, or be pragmatic (cowardly) like me. I believe Arm is worth more than double its Mkt Cap right now, but am probably wrong. C Very interesting your comments about Optimal Payments - never heard of them but will look them later today. IV For more info on Arm watch MotleyFool - they still have many experts like genglethus, anthonymus, troglodytes and blahblahdoh. I came over here cos I hardly get any info from MF any more. XXX Bedtime now - SeeYa

Hi R3D2 Iom Mrkt Cap is £ 273M so I don't think it can be Aim (not in my office right now so can't check). Also I only recorded the Big deals. ie > £ 10K. Shirley they can't get those wrong? No doubt you will have seen my 'shares from thin air comment' of over £ 1M more bought than sold. All I can think is a MM got stuck with a huge bundle of shares (after an unsuccessful Takeover - which is when I bought) and he/she/they are offloading them as quickly as possible (invisibly cos they are MM's). Interesting obs of Arm sp movement. Now I am losing money on Arm so my rules say Sell. I will sell in the morning, but I think they are a Buy, so I may just Hold. I used to be indecisive but I'm not sure now. Best of luck if you topped up.

I don't believe the MM can have a significant effect on the share price - I believed the SP was based entirely on supply/demand ie every day the Buys ought to more or less = Sells and SP adjusted by them to enable that. Don't really know what effect the shorters have (betting on SP going down) nor the longers (SP up - option to buy at todays price in X months time). They should cancel each other out!? Anyway, take a look at the iom board where I have been arguing with myself for ages about supply/demand!

Treasury shares explained by an expert! http://boards.fool.co.uk/arm-have-just-bought-4-m-of-them-in-their-own-13229728.aspx If I hadn't said anything they might not have lost 4.53%

Particularly cos SP down 1p. Stranger than fiction!

The world economy is not at ideal by any means BUT my point is Arm's Peg of 0.6 means the Martian Invasion is already built into the price. I haven't checked but I suspect the Peg has never been lower than this. £8.00 Dec-12 with Eps 11.6 £9.60 Aug-15 with Eps 25.0 (approx) ie If Eps now only 23.2 all things being equal the price should be £16.00

You're not kidding. 6 Big Buys of £1.2M 1 Sell of £14K. ie > £ 1M shares have appeared out of thin air! This represents 0.3% of the value of the company. 62% owned by Dirs and Funds - No change in Dir holdings - Major Funds increased holdings by 6.2% over last 3 months. Must be a quantum anomaly cos it makes NO sense at all!

I don't know how dependent Arm is on Apple Sales, but think it cannot be a high %age - just 1 phone maker of many and 1 sector of many of Arms interests. Mebbe all the Chinese have sold their shares to to buy Apple phones! Anyway for a high growth coy to have a Peg of about 0.6 means it must be a bargain at this price. ie Double Peg (to a very reasonable 1.2) would lead to double the price of £19.00. I am now losing money on this share which means I have to sell some, according to my Rules, which means I might have to revise my Rules!

If only half the number of houses are being built per year that are needed, then the potential is to double that. If that was to double then the share price should also double. So sit back, relax and wait for £13 before you review your holding.