Member Info for Nige_W

Take a look at the last trades - all blue, so I expect another rise tomorrow. Hopefully it will pay for my losses on nanoco where I am tempted to average down. Nano like arm subcontract out most of their production but have their own production facility as well. But royalties from Dow, Merck and Hisense (I think, the Chinese one) should become huge. I sold out of agma, losing 1120 (to set against profit made on arm, which also covered by Brexit losses on builders), but am now 1943 up after reinvesting, so very happy right now. Could reach 240 by end of week, then the price will slowly fall again, so buy nano, later sell nano and buy more agma is my plan. Just hope agma don't announce they can make tons of graphene cheaply before I buy some more. Don't think this surge will reach 282 until production sorted - but could be wrong again. BoL

It would be interesting to see their prediction from last week. Hope you hold agma. Now 4.3% of my port which is a bit worrying for such a small coy (Mrkt Cap £38m). BoL

212.5 now, inc 18%, agma going ballistic. All we need now is for them to announce the capacity of producing 100 tons per day at a cost of £200 per ton. That is the other side of the equation, so I completely agree with you Loggybog. Not complaining and not selling, but missed the boat for buying. BoL

Thanks Kenny, proves I just don't make things up! This justifies a far bigger price (hence rise), but still no good if graphene costs £10,000 a film (one atom thick). Certainly there will be specialist uses, but if they can produce it cheaply, the uses are endless! As the article said it is not limited to filtering salt out of salt water, it can be set up to filter anything (at a molecular level !) Have a look at Nanoco (Cadmium free Quantum Dots for vdu's) - another game changer. Gone backwards big time recently. Compare share prices, and you will see every now and then a surge on an announcement, followed by a gradual decrease in sp afterwards. This suggests leave agma for now to settle, and invest in Nanoco cos it's cheap. Horses for Courses, I am now 12.3% up on Agma but 51.3% down on Nanoco. Techwise Nanoco is almost there now, not too sure if Agma is!. This is a Contrarian idea! My current idea is to buy Nanoco cheap, and wait for agma to decrease in price before buying there again. My Port is 3.4% Agma 1.2% Nanoco. Could be wrong again and Agma goes ballistic, while Nanoco runs out of cash. I think Nanoco is closer to a full trading position. Final idea. If you invest in a company that you already are making a profit on, it could increase. Otherwise if you invest in a company where you are losing, it could get worse. Or Vice-Versa. Hope this Helps! BoL

Wonder material does everything. As previously mentioned it cures the common cold, baldness and now filters salt water. If they could just produce large amounts cheaply this will take off.

Thanks Wuffle I hope you are right. High energy Lightening hitting the composite wings of aircraft can bring the aircraft down. One application I saw was adding graphene to a resin making a paint to cover the aircraft. The incredible conductivity of graphene makes the aircraft safe again. If agma can make graphene cheap enough, every plane in the world (with composite wings) could be painted with the graphene resin paint. That is a lot of paint! The Question is When will it be cheap enough? Not holding my breath, but one way or another (takeover, licensed production...) agma can hardly go wrong. Breaking even now so time to buy some more (only 3% of my Port). BoL

Don't know why rdw would want to buy bvs. Massive challenge to change the culture. Rdw doing very nicely as it is by being run by a builder, not accountants.

Mass production at a cheap price is the key. No doubt this will eventually be achieved, but when? Even if it costs £1000 per gram the properties are such that there will still be high demand. Their intellectual property is probably worth more than the company now, so even though I am losing money on this company, I am not too worried. Just need patience. BoL

Hi Strictly Just searched my EMail (don't look at it very often, deleted 230 messages) and didn't find your message, so I looked thru Junk mail and found a message from LSEShares referring to your message. Unfortunately you have to subscribe to lseshres (Min £5.99 per month for Premium membership) which I do not. If you could copy your message to EMail and send it directly to me, @hotmail.com (same name) I will read it with interest. Almost put worksheets together and can send them directly as attachments. Do you use Excel and Visual Basic? BoL

Hi Strictly Thanks for your reply. I have saved your post and will see if I can set up a system using Pbv as you suggested. Lots of Work! The Heard moves depending on the leader - psn yesterday then tw later today. A surge in the leaders sp is typically double the sp movement of the rest, so it is a matter of timing. I was underwhelmed by psn movement today - 0.2% increase. On +ve side Margin increased from 21.9% to 24.8% and Cash from 570m to 913m,but with that huge increase in cash, why have they delayed Fin Div from 01/04/16 to 03/07/17 (still 110pps FXDivDt 15/06/17, Yld 5.42%)? Nice to get 25pps 31/03/17 (IXDivDt 09/03/17, Yld 1.23%) but I was expecting 5.42% then. I will hold for the little Divi then sell some time later and buy back again prior FXDivDate. Same model as tw, FXDivDate around 02/06/17. Might be of interest to you, From Company Refs 02/17 Coy, Prce, MCap, Per, Peg, Pbv, CurPrc psn, 1920, 5914, 8.97, 0.95, 2.39, 2030 tw., 168, 5484, 8.59, 0.95, 2.01, 178 bdev,473, 4758, 8.20, 1.67, 1.19, 509 bkg, 2840, 3939, 6.90, 0.00, 2.16, 2915 bwy, 2490, 3055, 6.96, 0.72, 1.64, 2594 rdw, 441, 1630, 7.40, 0.00, 1.60, 494 crst, 499, 1269, 7.23, 0.00, 1.99, 542 bvs, 818, 1100, 7.85, 1.53, 1.15, 768 tef, 324, 243, 7.16, 0.00, 1.30, 348 MCap, Per, Peg based on Prce, CurPrc changes them all. Unfortunately CoyRefs does not have Historical Pbv. So Top 5 of 9: Best Pbv bvs, bdev, tef, rdw, bwy Best Per bkg, bwy, tef, crst, rdw Best Peg bwy, =psn/tw, bvs, bdev Tots bwy - 1+4+5 = 10 bvs - 5+2 = 7 tef - 3+3 = 6 bdev - 4+1 = 5 rdw - 4+1 = 5 bkg - 5 psn - 4 tw. - 4 crst - 2 You will be happy with this no doubt, bwy No 1, tef No 3, but crst at 9? Per, Peg ... based on historical data and Analysts forecasts - psn smashed those numbers to bits! Good time to buy psn Imho! BoL

Hi Strictly The reason I abandoned searching for value in builders is because I don't think any are much better than any of the others. Bvs is the cheapest - needs a culture change, not just Ceo, while bkgh and psn are not such great value but have the most cash which, Imho justifies a higher PBV. I am not a day trader, but got my total trades for float down to about 20 Action Dates per year - ie (20 buys, 20 Sells), but this does not include overlaps ie right now I have 20k in psn and 6k in tw. My new system calcs % increase over number of weeks for all RNS's, most of which are not worth making into Action Dates. After eliminating those you are left with PreFin, PreInt and IntRes (if no PreInt RNS declared) and occasionally MStat1 (ManStat between IntRes and PreFin - psn and tw). Also FExDiv date - must hold until sp recovers, so you always must be flexible. As I said before share price will eventually catch up with value, but I read somewhere, the market is always right and if you disagree then you are wrong. Must say this is a stupid idea - the Dotcom bust meant all our Tech Stocks became cheap, so were bought by Rest of World. I am getting to the point of evaluating my position (how well it works), but I have changed a lot of decision making, so Analysis is meaningless. Previously there was little difference between LTBH and my RNS system - my gains were counteracted by extra trading cost, but hope to do better! As you can see my system is to follow sp trends, rather than value. Just need to improve my system, and know when to bail out (30 Years?) BoL

Great company bwy - the only one I have continually held since I started investing again in 2013. Using Last in First Out method I still hold 350 at 1423 (12/12/13), 162 at 1520 (20/12/13) and 20 at 2470 (25/01/17). Last due to buying 10k worth (float) then selling 10k worth, leaving 20 more shares as the price increased. This gives 70% profit - just wish my other companies did that well! Your method of going all the way back to 2003 I think is good for finding solid companies (not too badly affected by the Banking crisis) - psn is another. I'd like to go into Per/peg's relative strengths ... but in the middle of reprogramming as usual. I think there won't be much difference between the two, other than psn has far more cash. My 20k Float is in psn right now prior to Final Results 27/02/17 and ExDivDate around 16/03/17 of 110pps = 5.74%. I don't expect a surge in price after Finals (already built into share price after good PreFinal RNS). Also got 6k Float in tw, Fin Res 28/02/17 but Special ExDivDate not until around 01/06/17. BoL

See http://www.dividenddata.co.uk/ex-dividend-date-search.py?searchTerm=bdev Interim Divi will be declared 23/02/17 with Interim results, XDivDate around 27/04/17, PayDate 19/05/17. Final Divi will be declared 06/09/17 with Final results, XDivDate around 06/09/17, PayDate 26/10/17.

Hi Strictly In reply to Part 2. 1St of all it is difficult to make comparisons between long term buy hold, and my method because I have increased my Float by so much. 2nd'ly - I am continually improving my system and made some bad Deals while I was setting it up - like I could not see the Cost Price when computer told me to sell - just did it anyway! This results in my new system where computer tells me when to buy and sell and highlights the hold time in Diary, so I need to manually override this to create the Action Plan and see all prices. 3rd'ly - I will produce a LTBH/MySys comparison when I figure out how to do it. Just done weekly update successfully and in the process of generalizing procs - SNAFU, I'll fix it tomorrow! Your investment strategy. Is absolutely correct, only differnce between you and Josh are details. The difference between me and you & Josh is you look for value, while I look at the share price movement. I am about to include crst into my system - noticed surges at critical dates around 14/04/17 - PreInt RNS, and PreFin RNS around 14/11/17. I think bvs should be avoided (keep on watch until it sorts itself out). Value will eventually be realised - but as you say you might have to wait a while. Disasters always happen. The thing is you must react quickly to the market when things begin to change - Brexit crippled the Builders because the Market totally overreacted. IMHO every builder is now worth almost double their current MktCap or share price. As I said the signs of disaster are decreasing margins and Earnings per Share Growth. Then is the time to get out, to whittle spoons in Alaska or invest in Toilet Rolls! My system means you are 100% invested all of the time with a buffer holding in the 6 builders of minimum of £2k, (bkgh, bdev, rdw, bwy, psn & tw), with a float of £26k which I move (partly) around, about 30 times per year between them. Due to overlaps it means rarely is the full Float in 1 company. Main Point - my system is based on RNS's, not value - go with the flow rather than value, and know when to abandon ship. So sorry you had to sell your house, but congrats on getting back in there. That will have taken a bit of guts - when things went pear shaped for, me I just forgot about it all, believing share prices would eventually recover - they didn't. Older and wiser now, (one thing I' sure is the first, not too sure about the second). BoL

Hi Strictly Your method depends on spotting good value by detailed analysis of the accounts is an excellent method. As I said I tried to do that with Tech Stocks (Growth) but this could not protect me from the DotCom Bust. History. With Tech Stocks the critical factors are the rate of change of Per, Peg and margins, but this was no protection against the DotCom Bust, just as the Builders disaster caused by the Bankers means good value does not guarantee continuing success. There would have been clear indicators such as decreasing margins, -ve growth ... That is the time to exit. Whether you regard Builders as a growth sector or cyclical is incidental - how long to the next cycle? Btw, had not all our best Tech stocks been sold off when they became cheap during DotCom Bust, Ftse100 would be far higher now than it is. Last to be sold was Arm valued at £15bn but sold for £24bn, which fortunately covered the losses I made on Brexit. When Builders became ridiculously cheap. Trouble is no way of knowing when they will recover. Leads to a simple value calc, previous average per / current per * share price = Real Value per share. As I said I have not updated Pers, pegs etc from company Refs so cannot give you any valuations here. But does it really matter - you could discover Telford is far more undervalued than the rest but if the market disagrees, you are wrong! Reactive Method. Is based on rate of change of share prices (determined by RNS releases). As I said I am investing in psn right now before their Final Results - I don't expect much of a surge in the price on there release because of a highly optomistic PreFinal RNS release (already built into the price) so in it mainly for the divi (around 5%), followed by tw (around 6.5%). Of course I will have to wait for the share price to recover after ExDivDate but according to my graphs should not take more than 2 to 3 weeks. I will have a good look at Telford (Company Refs) and might add it to my watchlist, but as I have said I am reluctant to invest in London/SE builders as I believe this is where the first signs of the market overheating will be seen (which is why I avoid crst). Steve Morgan (the King) returned and transformed the company but did you know a Director resigned (with immediate effect) and Steve said he was not allowed to resign until he was replaced. Maybe not a bad thing and all now is well in the camp. This was 2 or 3 years ago. Builders make up 72% of my port which is more than I would like (too many eggs...) so I need to find some more companies to invest in for which Company Refs is excellent. BoL

Hi Stricly Very interesting article. First a bit of History so you can appreciate where I am coming from. I started investing in 1986 - made a lot of money during DotCom Boom (and lost it in DotCom Bust). During this time I refined my investment strategy by buying Company Refs and looking for value in Tech Stocks. It worked well until everything collapsed. I still get Company Refs but have found that it is more difficult to compare Building Companies, because their performance mirror each other. Bvs looks best value but that is because they have worst -ve sentiment. They have the worst management - have a quick look at bvs board - nothing but trouble! Psn and bkg look worst value, but they have the most cash and unlike tw, bdev and rdw, were never in danger of going bust during the Banking crisis, so are looked upon more favorably than the others. Just leaves bwy, few -ve's many +ve's. Conclusion. On plotting 5 Year History on 1 graph for each company (start date 1st YEnd Date) II noticed every company surged (or not!) around the same dates, coinciding with the RNS releases. This formed my strategy of buying in before RNS release, selling some time after release and buying into next company. From this I created my computer Diary which tells me what shares to Buy (or not) when, and how long to Hold. There are of course under/overlaps so the plan has to be manually overridden, forming an Action Plan. Current situation. Just sold £10k in bwy Profit £534, about to sell £10k rdw Profit £1018 (at todays prices) and moving £20k float to psn along with £6k from Isa for Final Results, and later Divi of £110 per share (Cur Price 2021 - yield around 5%). ie £1300 just for Divi from Float alone. Then to tw for their Divis (FinDiv 2.6 around 1.5% Yield, SpecDiv 11.2 around 6.7% yield). Btw I have not even entered Company Refs numbers for Feb-17 yet (received about 04/02/17), only use that now to find new companies, and check out margins, Per's, Peg's ... of Builders. You were a bit -ve about psn while I am piling in there - FinRes 28/02/17, ExDivDate around 01/03/17. BoL

Hi Strictly, Josh Strictly if you look back on this board you will see I have my own plan (which Josh despises, but has done nicely for me). Basically, buy a share before the RNS, watch price rise and sell some time after RNS buying into the next RNS. The companies I invest in are bkgh, bdev, rdw, bwy, psn and tw. This produces 27 Action Dates as the target for a float which I started at £9k raised to £10k then £20k, £26k (+6k Isa1), soon £32k (+Isa2). Say I buy £10k in a company at 1000 per share = 1000 shares, watch price go up to 1100 then sell £10k @ 1100 = 909 shares, so I have gained 91 shares in that company, and still have £10k float for the next company. The reason this works well with builders is that the only significant share price movements are when they produce RNS's. It needs quite a lot of work though (Rel price graphs, 5 year History for each company from which you decide whether or not to buy on RNS release, and how long to hold...) and you need to set up a Diary - autoupdate? Other companies I watch, but don't invest in are bvs & crst (London based and underperforming), gfrd (too much low margin Civils) and gle (SE land - Brexit bubble?) BoL

Hi Liberalman Holly Black is writing rubbish for the sake of making money by being published per column inch. No focused opinion, but what is totally ridiculous is Yield of 20% (admittedly quote by Richard Watts, Old Mutual - cannot believe a Fund Manager would ever say that). Is this the equivalent of Scientists inventing their own Data, or the age of Post-Truth? I invested in bkg 07/11/16 and am now 21% up, so thanks for that - I am still worried about the London market but the cash bkg has means it's not going bust any time soon - I still avoid crst and bvs. BoL

Thanks terrace This does not only apply to bwy, but to sell the freehold on should be made illegal. One thing is for sure - avoid leasehold properties. Same issue posted on another board and it showed the areas where leasehold properties were being sold. BoL

Why Crooks ???