Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Prof I was hoping for a reply from you. When the big players sell it will be a disaster for any company, but why should they? (other than short term tax reasons, after which they will probably buy back anyway). If a company is growing by 20% pa it is no more than a matter of time before the Sp increases to pre XDivDt, but my float is stuck there over that period, hence my new strategy. When most builders are increasing by around 20%+ per year, the market for them has 1 direction - that has been the case for (almost) 10 Years (besides Brexit vote hiccup, which unlike other sectors is built into builders Sp). You concentrate on bdev, but if the disaster you predict happens it should apply to all builders. Makes me think you are a divi chaser with Utes/Banks and don't really understand Builders. As long as demand > supply builders will continue to do well and regardless of Govt plans, interest rates... I don't see that will change any time soon (unless another banking disaster created - 1st time by Gordon Brown or next Corbyn?) My little daughter is about to buy a house which she probably will be paying off the rest of her life, unless we get inflation back up to 20%+. Never did me any harm, but not politically correct to say that now, bit like smoking. BoL

Hi Prof Sold half my float in bdev, but if you look back on my prev posts, this was always my intention (half or all). Lost out on bdev initially cos price went down after I bought and no reserve to top up, so now I have a float in reserve. If you look at builders they almost all return to pre XDivDt price within about 4 to 6 weeks (psn and bwy more quickly than the others), the only exception being Brexit vote. So other half of float will get 34.4p and I will sell that when price recovers. If the price drops more than 34.4 I will be tempted to buy back with some of the held float. Why 615 (market correction on a company growing by 20 %pa with loads of cash, huge margin, 5%+ divis, lowest Per's in Ftse)? The only correction will be when the fat cats realise how much builders are undervalued. BoL

Hi Prof I am 13.3% up on bdev (av 611, cur 692) since 24/08/17 because I knew that Sp Pre-XDivDt should be > 20* amount of divi, ie 34.4 * 20 = 688. Both tw and psn pre XDivtDt reached 4.6% of Divi and if bdev reaches that level, the price would be 746. Of course neither of us know what will happen to the Sp prior XDivDt, but I prefer to base my estimates on Builders previous, not Utes (as I said, Chalk and Cheese). I imagine that your negativity could be applied to all Builders, so why concentrate on bdev? This makes me think you have your own agenda. One last point I think after XDivdt, bdev will decrease by (initially) by 34.4p and may take around 4 weeks to recover (like tw) to PreXDivDt. Am I Bovvered? Growth heading towards 15% and Divi > 6% = 21% (for me) in not much more than 2 months (3 months with recovery). Why not have a look at bwy and rdw and see if they are going to fail massively as well? At least not long to wait now, so we shall see.

Hi Sunset Very happy my prediction of 688+ (based on Sp 20 times Divi, or Divi represents 5% of Sp) when Sp 58?. Did not really believe it would happen, but it has! Psn and tw reached 4.6%, so if bdev does the same Sp should be 746. The Prof reckons Sp in free-fall after XDivDt because of bad fundamentals, which Imho are excellent. Now I am convinced he has his own agenda (which is a bit of a waste of time cos if he influences anyone to sell on this board, it will probably make about 0.01% difference to the Sp). Btw around 2000 I was making �100k per day, and drive a BMW M12 on my Island in the Caribbean. All the major builders basically reflect the performance of each other, bvs and crst are losing the plot, bkgh, bdev, bwy, rdw, psn and tw are all performing brilliantly - so he does not understand the sector. Many spanners around but at least they are built into the sp of builders more than any other sector. Av float 611, now 690 and have 10,000,000 shares there (including Isa's) so no worries particularly cos I have built a bunker under my mansion, so I could be the only person left alive on this world - I will be able to take whatever I like! BoL

Hi Prof You could be right about sse and cna Sp drop before XDivDt (don't watch them) and I am sure you are right about the open price after XDivDt (so don't disagree with everything you say!), but now you are comparing Utes (almost no Sp growth, massive debt) with Builders (20%+ growth pa, loads of cash). Chalk and Cheese! Psn recovered from XdivDt almost immediately, tw took longer. I expect bdev to be more like tw. The difference between psn (and bwy) and bdev (and tw) is that the former recover quickly from bad news while the latter take more time. Made about 5% on both (when they got back to pre XDivDt Sp). The reason for this is bdev and tw almost went bust during the banking crisis because of debt interest, while psn and bwy were never close because they had loads of cash. They all have cash now, but there are different types of investors. The psn investor will get his 5% and say thanks so much and reinvest it all (done alright here, can't complain and look forward to the next). The bdev investor will say "Great but now what do I do?" Can't program that into the computer, Troubles would call it gut instinct - Solid or Volatile? My intention is to sell all (or maybe half, if Sp < 700) my float 2 days before XDivDt, and buy half back again if Sp plummets (to < 666 = 700 - 34). I am not at all superstitious but I think I will make that 660 cos it's a rounder number! Anyway, I think bdev worth 700+ and am better at predicting Sp movement than my system. BoL

Ps Nice to see the increase in interest on this board recently. Everyone has their own opinion which we should respect, unlike the rancour that exists on tw board. Share trading (like Economics) is not a Science (so no definite answers) but no definite answers in Science either anymore! My sell date for float in bdev is 24/10/17 - anyone hazard a guess at the Sp then? Just to start the ball rolling, I say 715. BoL

Hi Prof Unfortunately I seem to disagree with almost everything you say. Ten Billion pounds is nothing ???, large number of builders? The number of builders has decreased by a large %age since the banking crisis (ie 1/3 or less than pre crisis), causing the current housing crisis. Stamp duty makes almost no difference and Brexit built into Sp more than any other sector. Also if you look at FinRes I think you will find bdev are increasing their land holdings. From 584 on 15/09/17 around when I predicted possible increase to 688+ (= 20 * 34.4 Divi) max Pre XDivDt, and now 678 - I am fairly confident it will be 688+ by XDivDt (unless the big players start selling now for tax reasons - in which case I will just hold for the Divi). My av float price is 611, av price (including float) 512 and when I sell my float I expect bdev will give me > 100% profit since (return to bdev) on 13/08/14. Bad fundamentals? I think not, any company producing 100% in 3 years cannot have bad fundamentals, and that's not even including divis! BoL, unless you are making these messages based on an ulterior motive - Shorting?

Hi Judge The Prof says fundamentals ony justify a Sp of 485 or something - what fundamentals is he looking at? He also says big players will bail out before XDivDt bringing the price down, but this didn't happen with tw or psn. Don't think he is worth listening to. BoL

Hi Judge I bought at av of 611, so anything above 644.4 is profit to me, now 681 so made 70.0 without the divi = 11.5%. Still think mileage left here so sell date of all float is 24/10/17, 2 days before XDivDt. Now, for the first time, I am creating a held float so if the price plummets (34.4p or more) after XDivDt, I will buy back with the held float, knowing it will soon recover to Pre XDivDt high. The point is that 11.5% guaranteed - nice to bank - with a potential for making more if, as I suspect, a big drop after XDivdt like tw, but unlike psn and bwy (bwy publish FinRes tomorrow and FinDivi, XDivDt) so a different policy there. Just another daft thing about my system is that generally it allows you to hold a float in 2 companies (as opposed to concentrating on only 1) so always a little hedge. Going down from 7 to 6 companies which means that the system will recommend keeping far more in cash. Hi Troubles This is why I enjoy doing this. But I invent my own Action Plan. I love this, so the computer might tell me "I told you so." I hope that my gut instinct is better, and it will be me who is saying "and you think I am the fool?" BoL

Hi Sunset When I posted target price 688 (price was 5??) I never really thought it would get this close. Looks like it will happen now, could even reach 700 (max possible 746 Prior XDivDt), so when 800? BoL

Hi Debacle I watch 7 in detail, bkgh, bdev, rdw, bwy, crst, psn and tw. Of these most are National with the exception of bkgh and crst (and bvs) which are London and South East based. London & SE is showing worst growth so am going to get rid of crst but will hold bkgh because done very nicely with them. Rejected bvs some time ago. You can easily see distribution of sites from their web sites (rdw started in North Wales but is pretty much National now). I am thinking of replacing crst with aht (Ashtead Group, plant rental, good growth, but large debt). Turnover 84% US 16% UK, so hedge against Brexit. BoL

Hi Dodge All we are seeing is the Sp catching up with the Divi, but nothing wrong with banking a profit. I think no chance of a fall before XDivDt (so if you had left your money with them you would make a little bit more). My current plan is to sell remaining float in rdw (av float 570, Cur Sp 621 so done Ok there, despite big chief selling) and buy into bwy (increased by 3.2% this week - better than any other builder - in anticipation of FinRes coming up 17/10/17). Just sat on bdev until I sell all �18k float on 24/10/17 (2 days before XDivDt), reinvest �8k (into tw and psn) and hold �10k reserve float that I might reinvest in bdev, depending fall after XDivDt. Hi Judge. I like a the idea of a cheeky top up, my only issue is how long will it take to recover, so could I use that money better elsewhere. If I had held a float before Rics publications probably will done far better, or more generally, bad news is an opportunity for which you need a held float. Orig Plan, invest in 7 builders (chasing their Rns's) with a 30% float, new plan 7 builders (after replacing crst with aht) with a 30% float and a 10% held float, ie cash, or develop to 35% float and 15% held float. Hope this makes sense to you and BoL

Hi Strictly You make a very good point, my dates are wrong, but this creates the idea of a delay. Everything moves forwards. I didn't realise he left in 2000, (ancient History now) and didn't realise it was as early as 2009 he came back. My earliest table for rdw is 2014 when it was still going backwards, but since then the Sp has been bril. So if it took Steve M 5 years to turn rdw around, I expect it will Tony P at bvs, even longer to turn bvs around. (Not surprised he was selling!) Last point there are spanners flying around, so I don't really think you can take a long term value position, my idea is to go with the flow. As I said I am moving from rdw to bwy right now, while holding a bunch in bdev before XDivDt. Already well up on bdev now, so very happy. The last couple of months I have been working on XDivDt after FinRes (psn, tw and bdev) and that has been also been working well. My system needs loads more data which will take me some time to enter. Never thought it would get so complicated, but feel I must make it the best I can. BoL

Hi Judge I posted this on tw board 'bdev up 7% this week due either to broker recommendation or people buying the divi (XDivDt 26/10/17), current Sp 657 and I think divi justifies 688+'. Posted this 25th September, when Sp 593. 'I predict Sp 688 based of divi (of 34.4) representing 5% Sp. But note Tw 01/06/17, Divi 9.2 pps, Sp Friday before 200 ie Divi 4.60% of Sp & Psn 15/06/17, Divi 110 pps, Sp Friday before 2379 ie Divi 4.62% of Sp so if bdev = 4.61% yield then Bdev Sp Friday before = 34.4 / 4.61 * 100 = 746.' Never really thought it would get this close. But my av float is 611, so going very nicely and only going one way now. Current plan is to sell all float 2 days before XDivDt and reinvest �10k if it drops much. BoL from a very happy Nige.

Hi Strictly My objective is to hold indefinitely a base value in all these companies, but move a float between them depending on the upcoming Rns's. Either work on long term buy hold or use a float system. Just got a comparison working: Ltbh from 01/01/14 profit 68.2%. Float system profit over same time profit 243% (but retrospective). I am forming a General Plan which I expect to make well over 100% in the same time period. But the General Plan can be improved, by changing the Action Plan by making buy dates earlier (to suit sell dates) and sell dates later (to suit buy dates). BoL

Hi Razor As you might see from my prev post the founder, biggest shareholder and Chairman of rdw, Steve Morgan has sold a bunch of shares and is saying he is taking a back seat in the company. Last time he stepped down the Sp collapsed until he returned and got the company going again. My point is how much damage will this do to rdw? ie Cur Price 608, Friday before his move was 630, or how do you quantify the damage? I don'y know! The other point is all builders follow a path. Imho none are much better (or worse) than each other. The differences between them make bvs and crst look particularly good value, but that is because their Sp relative strength is far weaker than the others. ie Value / RelSt = 1.0. Don't think there is much to choose between them in quality/style... they just copy whatever has worked for the competition. I realise this is probably no help at all, so I suggest you buy a small number of shares (base value) in maybe 6 to 8 builders, and move a float between them, which is my system. At the moment I am moving from rdw to bwy (for FinRes) bought float in rdw at av 577 and 605 now so made about 5%. Could return to 630 but not bovvered - quite happy to make 5%. Reckon bwy will make >5% on FinRes. BoL and please ask if some of my ideas are unclear to you.

Hi All Don't take much notice of this, but considerable activity leads me to expect a fair Sp movement on open later today. From the numbers can't really tell if it will be +ve or -ve, but at 640 with potential of 700 in 3 weeks I am hoping it will be +ve. Hi Judge I understand your reasoning, and you could well be right. I need to do more research here and find out %age held by institutions as opposed to private investors. I suspect PI's would sell while Inst's would hold and this could lead to a better understanding of Sp performance between Tw and Bdev as opposed to Psn and Bwy. I suspect tw and bdev have more PI's as opposed to psn and bwy. Psn and bwy hardly affected by XDivDt while tw (and possibly bdev) was. Hence 10k float before XDivDt. Hope this makes sense and BoL

Hi Strictly Still completing my system - cannot believe how long its taking. Just to comment on your comments to Nrimmer, I totally agree with regards rdw and bwy, soon I will build Tef into my system, but since on rdw board, how much damage do you think SM sales have done to the Sp, or is 611 a good buy price? I'm in the process of exiting (float) from rdw to bwy at the moment (so is that premature)? Crst, still have a small float there - London based and relative price a long way behind the other builders. Psn always overpriced because they are Quality, so overvalued by your value Calcs. According to Strength Calcs they are always right up at top of table. Tw and bdev maybe overvalued in comparison to rdw and bwy, but bdev XDivDt coming up soon (26/10/17), have a look on the bdev board where I (tongue in cheek!) justify a price of 746 for them, currently 642. I keep an eye on bvs, the new Ceo might turn the company around, but its not going to happen tomorrow. BoL

Hi Sunset Hope you are right - numbers movement looking good. My av float is 611 and av price (incl BaseVal and float) is 512. The moment your % profit exceeds the divi yield %, you are in sell mode, but then just watch the price increase to 2 or so days before XDivDt and then sell (half or all, and buy back if Sp plummets after XDivDt)? I will have £10k waiting for that. I can always use it elsewhere if no plummet. I think 700+ possible but already almost 5% up on float, so unless a rogue spanner comes along, I can hardly go wrong. BoL and you are certainly no fool.

Hi Noggers They looked the bees knees some time ago, so I I bought at 243 on 26/11/14 and 280 on 04/06/15. Bought 800 more on 11/04/17 at 341 which I sold at 284 (summit is not right?). Then the S**t hit the fan, so decided now to bail out. Don't think you have missed the boat unless you got the timing perfect. I lost £1,858, about 25% of cost, but if you wait for a recovery/take over, you could be waiting a long time! Don't like -ve numbers on my SS. You really have to know your kstuff to buy on weakness/overreaction - too risky for me. Ganin canny with builders, if it ain't bust, why try to fix it? Builders now 82% of port, but am I bovvered? BoL