Member Info for Nige_W

Hi SweetTooth No harm in having a daft guess, but really depends on how Brexit goes. My guesses below are minimum prices - if Brexit going well the prices will be more. bkgh 5040 bdev 810 rdw 885 bwy 4720 psn 3560 tw 260 Builders are the only place to be! BoL

Hi Tom Probably won't be 210 by close tomorrow, but not far off. Don't know how long ago it was I guessed 210 by New Year, but sticking to 240+ just before 01/06/18 (XSpecDivDt), barring some Brexit upset BoL and Happy New Year.

Hi Helena Just to explain my prediction a little 240 is min price 01/06/18 based on divi = 5% of Sp. In fact Divi became 4.6% of Sp Pre XDivDt, as did psn, so this explains 240+. If Brexit negotiations completed successfully by 01/06/18 then maybe Sp 280, but they certainly won't be, so something between 250 and 260 is my best guess. However you look at it that is a great return (in 6 months) and then, do you hold for Divi (and make another 5%+ depending on av buy price - you will have to wait until Sp returns to Pre XDivDt max to sell), or sell the lot and make say 255 - av price. My system is to sell about half my float, and wait for the recovery to Pre XDivDt before selling remaining float. Just done that with bdev but still holding remaining float until Sp = 660+, but my av float is now 617, so I could sell now. When I sell, my av price for bdev will drop to a bit more than 355 (first 2 Deals 31/07/14 and 13/08/14), Cur Sp 646 so very happy with that! Doesn't even include Divis. I have made a lot of money out of builders over the last 4 Years and think it is the only to be. BoL

Hi Tom, Troubles I think this is a delayed response to the good new concerning Brexit. As I have said before Builders are massively undervalued because of Brexit and as good news comes thru the perceived threat diminishes, so Sp goes up. This makes me think good idea to hold right now - but could be wrong again. According to my system the next XDivDt (for final and special) is about 01/06/18, which should be be about 12 pps (= 15 - 3 Int Divi) so according to Nig-Rule 27 Sp should be 20 * 12 = 240 just before XdivDt, but this assumes Sp driven by divi. If confidence in builders is increasing, the Sp could become much more than 240 - 270 to 280? All depends on how Brexit goes. PreFin 10/01/18, FinRes 27/02/18 (when FinDivi and Special will be declared) so I am buying tw before 27/02/18, and holding for now. But you stick with your system cos it works - not sure if you will be able to get back in if you sell now. BoL

Hi Tom Agree with you regards BitCoin. Too risky. Don't know anything about them so shouldn't really comment, but the trade they are making must result in decreased trade for other companies, who will not like that! Nano very risky as well but they have a product that (hopefully) people want, as opposed to a system that steals business from other major players. More problems with Web connection. No signal so got on to Virgin who said it would be fixed by 5pm - it wasn't so phoned again, and then they said it will be fixed early today and it is - hopefully that is the end of it but think I need an alternative system for trading. Tv Us as well so had to listen to the wireless. That was just a minor embuggerance, but I do need to be able to trade. BoL

Hi Tom I have also noticed that, seems like a good idea - I have not watched in detail - so should take more notice of these things. Have a look at bdev Board, somebody mentioned the same thing as regards builders - like buy late afternoon, sell in the morning next day. Something I should watch more closely. As you know I am not a day trader - in the last 4 years I have only made 264 trades = around 60 per year, and then I make at least 1 buy and 1 sell reducing that to less than 30 per year. I've reduced my held float for the Santa surge ( to around 7.5%). I would prefer 10% to 15% for the cliffs, icebergs next year. The issue I have is not enough hours in the day, with rewriting my fluxed system! Merging 2 systems together, 2 test systems, while adding new Coys and Isa processing - but going very well. Still think nano is a good bet, so have have moved almost half to my Isa. If it does take off no Cgt issues. With builders you look at 20% to 30% increase pa, plus 5% divi - which is great, but imho nano could be 100%+ over a year. I'm going to pick up a pension (cash) soon (from an old company I had), and am still thinking of buying a Focus ST3 which is just as fast as your M4! Also need a new tv, tablet and computer. I think we are pals and you could not offend me so very best of luck (and get into nano)!

Hi Ardent As you say you can use the ladder, or my system (base value + float) or whatever. One advantage of my system is you always hold your oldest shares, and as I said my profit on bwy would increase when I sold some to increase float. Now I only have most of the original first 2 Buys. Profit just gone up to 141% (excluding divis), and this is held as opposed to completed deals - so no Cgt liability on that. Not paid (or owe) any Cgt since 2001, and soon will get next years Isa allowance when I can counter any float profits I make with losses on Nanoco. Then I will probably not be close to having to pay Cgt as my port decreases and moves to Isa's. It would be nice to see nano Sp moving, but better for me if that was not until April next year. If I make some money on my latest floats I might average down again on nano (current av 41). BoL

Hi Tom Those 2 did not Cap the incentive scheme - the Ceo is entitled to over £100M. Bit embarrassing really. Just done the 5 deals - decrease in bdev, bwy and tw, increase in psn and rdw. Will review this deal in detail end of Feb, good test of my system. BoL

Hi Ardent Agree with everything you said and Imho tw should be 260+ now. The only reason the Sp is so undervalued is Brexit which should affect builders less than other sectors (unaffected by the vote!) Hi Tom Poor report? They have been so successful they are having to pay their management too much! Trading report beginning January so I am going to increase my Float adjustment, and buy more in psn. My web connection went down late last night, but back today without me doing anything. Anyone had that problem and any idea what could have caused it? BoL

Hi Ardent I said before I don't think there will be a downturn so nothing to worry about, but as the Sp falls buying a new rung sounds very much like averaging down. Also 210 possible by New Year and 240+ before XDivDt. I am not saying go for Ltbh - by all means go for ebb and flow, but 'you must be in it to win it' (Ice's Granny?) I realise timing is important in your system, but can't see the price going down much before new Year. BoL

Hi Ice Not criticising your system - stick with whatever works for you. The majority of my port is made of builders (over 80%), and was surprised you trade in sxx. Had a quick look at them - not my cup of tea, but you obviously know them well and if you make money there, why not? Cliffs and Icebergs about - at least Rics report hasn't had much effect on Sp. BoL

Hi Tom Sorry if I did not make myself clear, I always hold a base value in 6 companies (including tw), I only sold the float. Still think 210 possible by New Year, but think I could make more on bdev, rdw and psn which is where my float is now. After selling the float tw down to 7.5% of port. BoL

Hi Tom No offence taken - made me laugh - I could have just replied Yes, but thought I would explain my system a bit, and hoping for some response. Personally I think your ladder system (IceGuy's) is a bit risky - if you start averaging down during a downturn you could end up in serious trouble! No sign of a downturn with builders (in fact as I have said before) Sp driven by Divis and the price can't go lower than that (regardless of Brexit). BoL

Hi Helena, Tom Great to hear from you again Helena I always hold a base value in 6 builders bkgh, bdev, rdw, bwy, psn and tw and move a float between them depending on upcoming Rns's. Currently float is in bdev, rdw and psn, having just sold float in bwy. This system also has the advantage of holding on to your oldest shares (by using Last in First out method), so after the sell I am left with my first 2 buys of bwy (12/12/13 @ 1423 and 20/12/13 @ 1520, cur 3545) and a few bits and pieces (buy £10k = n shares, Sp goes up then sell £10k = n - x shares - x shares for free). Result profit on bwy 124% (excluding Divis) and am about to increase my float (which will get rid of the x's - bits and pieces) which will increase the profit even more! Very happy with that, just wish all my other companies did that well. Unfortunately oldest shares in tw are 22/08/16 @ 158 and 24/08/16 @ 168 - profit 23%. So I sold float in tw, still got the base value. Hope this makes sense. BoL

Hi Cdl1 Shame to spoil this amusing thread, but I think concrete can be laid at less than 3 degrees, so is it not possible add whatever they add to concrete to mortar. Anyway, bit of profit taking early on yesterday, then people getting back in. I think this is a major change in attitude which will force the price up over next few days, so I still think 210 possible by New Year, given builders have lost around 30% of their value cos of Brexit vote. Not all issues resolved but a big step in the right direction. Sp of 200 + 30% = 260, but as the sp increases Nig-Rule 27 becomes irrelevant, cos 20 * Divi will become less than current Sp. Plan at the moment is to sell float in bwy and move to psn and rdw, and leave the adjustment (to increase float) to next year (Nig-Rule 01). BoL

Hi Cdl1 What caused the closure, like snow flooding ... and where are you working? Bol

Hi Always Nought wrong with cashing in as Ice says, then buy back at a lower price. Gives you X shares extra for nothing. I used to play Rugby against the 8 (I think), Hartlepool Teams then, with Redcar RUFC and Coatham Grammar, or Sir William Turners schools. Also worked for Wimpeys, and there was a site in Seaton Carew which was built on a tip (mid 70's), so raft foundations, can't remember the name of the site. I was not on that site but had to do the dips (measuring difference between kerb heights and center of road height to calc the amount of base-course needed for sub contractor to complete the roads). Did you travel by canoe to Tenerife, and are there many Monkeys there? Iceguy and yourself will know what I am talking about - no insult intended. BoL

Hi Troubles Probably no more Cliffs before New Year, (except possibly RICS report) but could spring up any time after that. Current plan is move float to rdw (IntRes around 08/02/17) and psn (FinRes around 27/02/17 - and remember they will state Fin/Special Divi then, so Sp will become 20 * that just before XDivDt - Nige-Rule 27). So according to Nige-Rule 01, probably won't do anything until next Year. Then sell bwy early Jan to cash, and buy rdw & psn mid Jan. Nice to have a detailed plan like this so I can see just how wrong it is (in retrospect). Learn my mistakes (bkgh). Last thought for yesterday, if I was to clear all my recent trades in bwy, I would be back to an average price of 1468 (from 2 deals 12/12/13 and 20/12/13), current price 3474, but my method is to buy/sell the same value, ie buy £10k = N shares, sell £10k at a higher price so N shares - X. X shares are for free. So I will have my original shares + X, which increases my average price. Anyway you look at it, that is some return - not even including Divis. Current system is in flux, building 2 systems together and adding new Coys - so all fluxed up! BoL

Hi Troubles Only have 2 shares with floats bdev and bwy, both past their sell by dates according to my system, float av bdev 619, cur 633 (2.26% up) and bwy 3432 cur 3622 (5.54% up). Think I will sell bwy on Monday (unless still going up), and leave as cash for cliffs. BoL

Hi Iceguy Great to see you're back, and hope your house is going well. Basically they make very small dots that emit light (of different wavelengths when struck by an electron giving colours). These can be used to make any form of display (tv, phone ...) and are about to replace Led's because they use less power and produce better colour and are cheaper to make than Led's. Similar model to Arm in that they take royalties on the people producing them (Dow and Merck) but they also have their own production facility. Very risky but massive potential. Have a look at nano board - some very clever people there. BoL