Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Troubles I have done Peaks/Troughs for the 6 companys I use. Four distinct Cycles per Year and it is not surprising I was unable to find overlaps - on a quick glance it looks like buy dates and sell dates don't vary much Also include Rns dates below, but spacing will be an issue, using comma delimiter. I'm going to have great fun playing around with this! Peak/Troughs < Cycle 1 > < Cycle 2 > Comp Trough Value Peak Value Trough Value Peak Value bkgh 23/01/17 3191 15/05/17 3362 05/06/17 3151 05/09/17 3752 bkgh 14/09/17 3468 25/10/17 3978 09/11/17 3588 09/01/18 4240 15/01/18 4100 bdev 23/01/17 477 15/05/17 611 26/06/17 565 01/09/17 627 bdev 18/09/17 581 24/10/17 700 28/11/17 595 05/01/18 658 17/01/18 610 rdw 23/01/17 438 01/05/17 580 10/07/17 548 05/09/17 647 rdw 15/09/17 548 01/11/17 664 24/11/17 582 05/01/18 664 18/01/18 634 bwy 23/01/17 2472 08/05/17 2941 05/06/17 2798 03/08/17 3252 bwy 15/09/17 2994 23/10/17 3792 09/11/17 3415 05/01/18 3686 18/01/18 3505 psn 23/01/17 1913 22/05/17 2456 26/06/17 2258 31/08/17 2659 psn 14/09/17 2436 26/10/17 2890 30/11/17 2540 05/01/18 2778 17/01/18 2610 tw 23/01/17 167 24/04/17 200 03/07/17 178 01/09/17 202 tw 21/09/17 184 26/10/17 207 09/11/17 192 05/01/18 211 17/01/18 196 RNS Dates Comp, Year/E, PreInt, IntRes, MStat1, PreFin, FinRes, MStat2, XDivDt bkgh, 30/04/17, ,02/12/16, ,17/03/17, 21/06/17, 06/09/17 bdev, 30/06/17, 12/01/17, 22/02/17, 10/05/17, 12/07/17, 06/09/17, 15/11/17, 26/10/17 rdw, 30/06/17, ,08/02/17, ,22/03/17, 05/09/17 bwy, 30/07/17, 07/02/17, 21/03/17, 14/06/17, 08/08/17, 17/10/17 psn, 31/12/17, 05/07/16, 23/08/16, 02/11/16, 05/01/17, 27/02/17, 27/04/17, 15/06/17 tw, 31/12/17, ,27/07/16, 14/11/16, 11/01/17, 28/02/17, 27/04/17, 01/06/17 Don't know what this is going to look like BoL

Hi Troubles Just run my system again from 02/01/15 and as I said before the objective is when sell, buy into another company. The trouble is that I have a situation when I should invest in most of them, while a little later I have nothing to invest in! Need to look up Company Refs to find Companys that overlap nicely. I thought with tw and psn (Y/e 31/12) would be balanced by bdev and rdw (Y/e 30/6), and bwy (Y/e 31/7) but basically they don't. Not a bad idea to hold cash anyway, then if a pothole - no worries. Ashtead Group (aht) a Plant Hire Company mainly based in US, is the best hedge against disasters in this Country, but once a disaster happens aht Sp fly as ours plummet. Great if you know when the disaster is going to happen, but pretty useless if you don't. Aht falls while no trouble here. Btw Trof and Peak both have 4 letters which made me think the alignment would be better. Don't know why they can't get a better Editor. BoL

Hi Troubles I see what you mean about the pattern and decided to relate it to RNS's So last 12 mths: PreFin 11/01/17 - ignore Trof 25/01/17 165 - invest 4 weeks before FinRes FinRes 28/02/17 - hold MStat2 27/04/17 - hold Peak 31/05/17 203 - sell before XDivDt XDivDt 01/06/17 - or hold for divi but 3 mnths to Sp recovery Trof 04/07/17 176 - invest 4 weeks before PreInt PreInt 01/08/17 - hold Peak 01/09/17 202 - sell 4 weeks after PreInt Trof 21/09/17 184 - invest 7 weeks after PreInt Peak 26/10/17 207 - sell about 12 weeks after PreInt Trof 09/11/17 192 - invest just before IntRes IntRes 13/11/17 - hold Peak 05/01/18 211 - sell 3 weeks after IntRes MStat1 10/01/18 - ignore Of course this is all in retrospect, but is very similar to what my system is telling me. I will do the same chart for my other builders and expect bdev and psn will be similar, (don't know about bwy, rdw and bkgh) so my idea is when sell, buy into one of the others. BoL

Hi Troubles Don't know anything about 200 day moving averages but one thing I do is to plot last 5 year price movement. Interesting to note the difference in price after PreFin and before XDivDt. Prices are Friday Close after Event Date. Then Y/E, PreFin, Price, XDivDt, Price, Inc % 31/12/13, 15/01/14, 119, 06/06/14, 108, -9 31/12/14, 12/01/15, 125, 05/06/15, 183, 46 31/12/15, 11/01/16, 184, 02/06/16, 206, 12 31/12/16, 11/01/17, 173, 01/06/17, 200, 16 and 31/12/17, 10/01/18, 198, 01/06/18, ??? So Ignore, 31/12/13 - too long ago! 31/12/15 affected by pre Brexit vote decline when Per declined from around 13 to 8. If you ignore this decline by increasing the June-16 (206) by 38% (undervalued amount) to 285. Then %age increase becomes (285-184)/184*100 = 55%. And 31/12/16 PreFin affected by huge increase just before announcement when price was 154 - Leak? So if %age increase calc was 154 to 200 = 30%. Now average %age increase is (46+55+30)/3 = 44%, and 200 + 44% = 287. As I said, 260+ by 01/06/18, and like you say, comments are welcome. I admit this is a bit optimistic, but if Divi around 15.3 pps then I maintain Sp will reach 260+ before XDivDt, barring Cliffs, Icebergs and Potholes ... BoL

Thanks Tom, Troubles for your support Don't like to comment on indecision candles ... I have never studied that stuff (technical analysis?) so can't criticise it. A lot of people will think my system is stupid, which is loosely based on the idea that whatever happened last year will happen this year. Yes, my system 3, Nig 0 when I have overruled it. The really annoying one was bkgh - system said strong buy and I didn't cos RNS's said challenging times ahead. This is a matter of getting used to CEO's style - after saying challenging times then producing excellent results people will think "didn't the CEO do well!" As you say, all part of the learning process. Getting close to an XDivDt strategy - what is surprising is psn different from bdev and tw. BoL

Hi Troubles You should have took the profit and I should not have invested at 208 so we both made mistakes. But does it matter. My system told me not to invest before prelims but I did anyway cos I thought things were looking good. This is the 3rd time my system has been right and I overruled it to my cost. System said invest just before FinRes when I could have saved about 10p per share. Main point is that it really doesn't matter too much at all if tw Sp 260 before 01/06/18. Don't expect much movement in Sp until FinRes now, and if Divi = 15.3 pps then no worries. Might keep a low profile now cos nobody believes 260, but have a look at psn and rdw where the rest of my float is now. BoL, and I apologise for not believing all of your quotes - I am sure they are genuine.

You would expect the company to open at a higher price tomorrow, but never seems to make much difference. I don't bother looking at them anymore, even if they do open higher can't do anything about it now. BoL

Hi Troubles Just looked him up - I thought he might be the BHS boss but not the same person. Not surprised he advised DC on corporate responsibility, probably brexit vote as well! BoL

Hi Tom Don't know if the demise of Carillion caused the drop in Sp of builders, but they are chalk and cheese. Carillion not even in my watch list cos not into Construction, just House Builders. Reason for going bust �1 Bn debt, while tw has �1/2 Bn cash. Also I stay away from Govt contractors like Capita, G4S ... Hi Solley Phillip Green ??? BoL

Hi Troubles Lovely quote (but I do suspect you make a lot of them up)! Rain has been predicted since Brexit vote, the Arks are already there (in terms of cash in Bank). Definitely time for a major change in policies, the trouble is nobody seems to know the direction to go. Imho abolish Govt and all hangers on (govt depts), reduce the cost of govt and get people working (producing) again, Arks, Houses, Roads, Bombers... How many people do you know who make anything at all? That's why I love watching the Alaskan stuff, build a stable for the Cow to protect her from the Bears. Shouldn't take more than a day! It probably takes a year to get planning approval for a site here - but this is progress? BoL

Hi Pickles. Good article but 'For all that, housing is notoriously cyclical and sentiment can change quickly. Whether it comes as a result of the economy creaking, or interest rates rising, investors should be prepared for the downs as well as the ups.' Sentiment can hardly get any worse, it is already at rock bottom when Sp driven by Divi. What is the period of the cycle? We have had 10 years of growth, no sign of (major) interest rate rises, or economic collapse while the builders remain positive and margins and profits are huge. More importantly the builders have loads of cash now so if there is a downturn they can simply pay off the subcontractors and wait for things to pick up again. Note how psn and bwy were hardly affected by the last slump, because they had a cash reserve. Hi Troubles. Maybe I am overoptimistic but both tw and psn Divi reached 4.6% of Sp before XDivDt so Sp even more than 20 * Divi (my assumption representing 5%). Divis will be announced with FinRes 27/02/18 and if they are decreased much from 15.3 pps there will be a collapse in Sp, otherwise I still think 260 is possible. BoL

Hi Tom and Sophie Didn't read the article - just saw 'builders hit their peak'. So if govt is successful in doubling the number of houses being built, who is going to build them? Local Authorities or Housing Associations (neither of which build anything - Subcontract to Builders), or small builders - 50% of which don't exist any more cos of the last slump, created by govt. Either big builders will do well in doubling their turnover, or govt will not double house building. Assuming govt wrong again then builders profits, margins and Eps Growth might not increase by as much as they were, but they are great anyway. Almost 8% yield and maybe Sp growth decreases to 15%. ie Return between 20 and 30% - that will do for me! BoL

Hi Mossimo What really annoys me about that article is that the lack of new homes is entirely due to the Govt. Only half the number of small builders there was 10 years ago because the other half driven into bankruptcy by govt. Since previous building slumps (caused by the govt) builders learnt they could not afford to employ tradesmen, cos they couldn't afford to pay them off when the govt decided to create the next slump, so they can hardly be expected to train them. Since govt created this issue (and did nothing to remedy it) there is a shortage of labour, made worse by the fact during the last slump many people who lost their jobs, also left the industry. And 'instead relying heavily on imported labour � which may well be a scarce commodity post-Brexit.' Who called for the vote? 'It is obvious that our planning system is frustratingly under-resourced', or not fit for purpose - whose fault is that? And now the big builders are holding the govt to ransom??? Lastly 'the stock market valuation of Britain�s largest housebuilders rose by 342% over the five years to 2013', but 10 years ago govt almost made them go bust.

Hi Graham A disaster was already built into the Sp before the latest drop. Since the Per of the company is less than 10 you could guess the company is close to bankruptcy, and doesn't have �512m cash in the bank, and a yield of 7.8% (at 196.5). Any thoughts on my idea that the Sp will increase until it is 20 * (Final Div + Spec Div), or about 260 just before XSpecDivDt (around 31/05/18). This leads to an increase in Sp of 12.7p per month for next 5 months. FatCats or Bots reacting like sheep, selling cos price is going down, without thinking of the intrinsic value of the company. Yet another massive overreaction Imho. BoL

From 36.25 02/12/17 to 57.19 today. Might average down a bit. BoL

Hi Pickles Until recently I have been predicting 240 by 01/06/18 based on 15 p divi and 3 p Int Divi giving Final & Spec Divi 12 p.Then 20 * 12 = 240. Revised this to 15.3 Divi and lowered int div so Final & Spec almost 13 p and 20 * 13 = 260. If I said tw was worth 300 that is what I thought they were worth, and the shows level by which they are undervalued. Still think they (and all other builders) are undervalued by 30 to 40%. This is roughly the amount the Per's have decreased by since Brexit vote. BoL

Hi Sean All we can do is wait and see. You will have seen my prev posts on my reasons for this price and barring some sort of disaster I see no reason why it will not reach 260. 30% return in less than 6 months is nice and so is the Div of 7.54% (based on Sp today of 199). At the moment Lse quoting Sp as 209 (no change on day) which I think is yet another computer glitch. BoL

Hi Tom I did say I could be wrong again! The 3 reporting companies psn, bdev and tw are all promising 7%+ Divis. XDivDt for psn and tw around 01/06/18, for tw this means price then will be 260+. Going to check out psn in detail but already got a lot of float there. Good time for a top up, but almost no funds left cos used most in buying tw. Time to be patient and hold. Now I am in HSBC invest direct +, I can borrow money (I think up tp 50% of Port) to top up, but don't like doing that. BoL

Hi FarmerT Barring disasters I think psn should increase in Sp by about 20% next year, so 2738 + 20% = 3258. If Brexit is going well could be a lot more 4000 ? BoL

Thanks Tom Don't expect to see 208 again for a long time, so very happy, but could be wrong again. Will you retire again if they reach 260? BoL