Member Info for Nige_W

Hi terrace You mean Price to Book Value no doubt. What are the values of other builders from that point of view? Personally I regard builders as growth companys now and more interested in relative strength, PER and PEG than PBV. I need to update all this cos my numbers are miles out of date, but surprised that tw lagging other builders in any way. BoL

Hi Tom Troubles All builders nicely up today which infers we have passed the Post New Year Slump, but if bdev IntRes are out tomorrow, this is as late as it can be. Not holding any float in bdev (float in rdw, psn and tw), in retrospect I think I should have split float 4 ways to include bdev. We will see tomorrow. BoL

Hi Earnacrust Special Divi - Last year 01/06/17, so probably 31/05/18 this year, to be confirmed with FinRes (next week) as is Divis (should be Tot 15.3 pps). Pick up FinDiv before SpecDiv. BoL

Hi Troubles You know my reasoning (for 260) which I think is historically justified. Might look a bit ambitious, but I believe it can be achieved (provided FinRes OK!) My plan is to hold all tw until 1 week before XDivDt, which I think will maximise profit. Even at 230 that is 37 pps (av 193), but 67 pps is a lot better! BoL

Hi Troubles Just ordered a Samsung Telly to go with my new Samsung tablet and very old Samsung Laptop. The very, very old Samsung tv can go back to being a monitor to the very, very old Dell PC. I now need a new PC, or Laptop but Samsung don't do PC's or Laptops any more. I am building the new Home System. Old Computers can work as back ups. I ended up buying from Argos at the same price as Samsung direct (shopping basket, like Tablet), but had to create a new account with Samsung and got fed up with the whole issue when things didn't work - so just used Argos. Anyway, convinced by the end of this week, things will be improving nicely. By end of May I expect to be 25 - 35% up on builders, and hopefully more on nano. BoL

Hi Troubles Not going to look for it right now but did you notice a very cluey guy on nano mentioned 93 by end of year and 200+ by end of next year, and that was conservative! Very happy to get in at 44, also no tedious cancel to do. I like the way you picked up on the word Control - that is what the Brexiters were talking about, as though any of them have any control over anything! Time to get rid of the lot, cos not fit for purpose. Just to really annoy you, I think the last PM who had any control at all was Maggi. You might not agree with her ideas (nor do I - she made me redundant in 1980), but she destroyed the Unions which needed doing at the time. It created a whole bunch of new issues which have not been resolved yet. Did quite a bit of work tonight and am coming to the conclusion that RNS dates don't matter much - just 4 Peaks and Troughs, but for the last 5 Years. So need to get that data for each company - then dismiss some as being meaningless cos of Brexit vote and average what is left. Then note the variance. ie Very late New Year Slump this year, and I bought tw far too early - float av 204 so 17 down - very poor! How the Sp reaches Peaks and Troughs doesn't matter much, cos they are all linked. Bdev IntRes I think on Wednesday which will start the ball rolling. Ha - both my candles so must be time for Bed. BoL

Apologies, some nom rungers there. 10% growth produces Sp of: 200, 220, 242, 266, 293, 322, 354, 390, 429, 472 - so takes just over 7 years - to date figures are just wrong! 20% growth produces Sp of: 200, 240, 288, 346, 415, 498, 597, 717, 860, 1,032 - or just 4 years for Profit = MrktCap, after 9 Years 5 Bagger! That's the power of Compound interest over even a short time, driven by growth! So Jim Slater who devised CoyRefs, said any PER < 10 is good value if the company is growing. He then created the Peg Ratio where Peg = PER / Eps Growth, and again the lower the better. If tw growing by 20% pa and Per = 10 then Peg = 10 / 20 = 0.5 Any Peg < 1.0 is good value, Peg of 0.5 is a strong Buy. From my last calcs tw PER Dec-16 = 8.6 and Peg 0.43. Remortgage the House ...! Of course we have the perceived Brexit disaster looming, but as I have said all along, why should this have a worse effect on builders as opposed to any other sector. Assuming we leave there will still be a housing shortage and materials won't go up in price (most made in UK), we could lose some tradesmen as they go back to their countries, but Theresa May is in control and will double the number of houses built! (Doubling Profits?) I have said this is a massive overreaction without justification, and tw (and the rest) should be 30-40% higher now than they are. These are my valuations then NigRule-17 will not apply any more. Anyway, I think builders and nano about to take off. BoL

Hi Tom Just gone thru which is good, but price gone down which is bad. At least I don't have to cancel it BoL

Hi Tom That option was possible yesterday but not today. Don't know why. Can't be bovvered with all the security (What is the third letter of your Mothers maiden name ...), so leaving it til tomorrow. Anyway, nano my biggest single investment now (disregarding Floats), just hope it keeps on heading North. BoL

Just saw a short program on PBS about graphene, there is no doubt it is a miracle material and they explained how to make very small sheets of it, Vaporize carbon and let it gradually cool on to a Copper plate and it forms hex crystals. A falling Carbon atom decides no place for it above the existing crystal so moves, and finds a gap to link on to the next incomplete crystal. Then dissolve away the Copper and left with a graphene sheet. Easy! Don't know how agma do it, but whether it costs more than gold or you can mass produce it, I am sure it is the future. BoL

Hi Troubles Still messed up! Sold �5k trade account, bought �3k nano OK so trade A/c no credit used. Extg Isa nano Buy �2k from yesterday, still there and I have to phone or E-Mail to cancel it. Limit price 44 which probably won't happen. Applying NigRule-1 until tomorrow! BoL

Hi Troubles Just saw a short program on PBS about graphene, there is no doubt it is a miracle material and they explained how to make very small sheets of it, Vaporize carbon and let it gradually cool on to a Copper plate and it forms hex crystals. A falling Carbon atom decides no place for it above the existing crystal so moves, and finds a gap to link on to the next incomplete crystal. Then dissolve away the Copper and left with a graphene sheet. Easy! Don't know how agma do it, but whether it costs more than gold or you can mass produce it, I am sure it is the future. Try looking up Graphene properties. Anyway, just got a Samsung S2 Tablet which is now on the Web via my router at home, and wife who I bought it for, is much happier with the simplest mobile that the kids bought her. She is still in hospital (for checks). Got another �3k to put into nano (sge - 5k, nano + 3k Trade A/c), and check that last Isa deal went thru (buy 2k in nano). Not even had time to play with Samsung yet! Reaching too many eggs issue again! Bol - No work done again tonight!

Hi Hereshopin One easy way of analyse a companies performance is to compare Price to Profit. This is the PER = Price ps / Earnings ps. The lower the result the better. ie If tw Sp 200, Eps 20 pps then PER = 200/20, so PER = 10. Or it takes 10 Years for Profit to equal Mrkt Cap. But if EPS is growing, then less than 10 Years to achieve that. If Eps Growth = 10% pa then Sp = 200, 220, 242, 266, 293 Profit = 0, 20, 42, 66, 93 in Year Profit = 0, 20, 62, 108, 201 to Date, so only 4 Years for Profit to exceed Mrkt Cap (at 10%). Note Average Eps Growth of tw and psn over 20% pa for last 5 years, justifying a PER far greater than 10. Traditional average PER of Ftse100 about 15 (inferring a growth rate of maybe 2% Pa), average builders PER about 13 (inferring a growth rate of maybe 1% Pa). The justification of the lower number for builders is that they are cyclical, but for the last 10 years they have been growing, and provided supply does not exceed demand, interest rates don't go daft, Cliffs, Potholes, Icebergs and MadMen, this isn't going to change for a while! Now Brexit factor. Here I have an issue, not updated numbers for a while, so not too sure if these are correct. Anyone Help? Just after Vote, Dec-16 Sp 154, Eps 17.9, PER 8.6 - so PER dropped from 13.0 to 8.6, or if no Brexit vote, Sp would be 154 * 13.0 / 8.6 = 233. The Company is growing fast, yet the PER is going down! This is madness and creates NigRule-17! Only happens in this situation which I don't know has ever happened before. NigRule-17. If good Divi then FatCats will just buy it, thereby increasing Sp. At Sp 186 and (to be confirmed 15.3, Tot Divi at FinRes) then Yield = 15.3 / 186 * 100 = 8.23%. IntDiv paid other side of year, so ignore (FatCats only interested in cash now), leaves 15.3 - 2.3 = 13.0 pps. Basic rule Sp will become 20 * Fin + Spec Divi = 260 or Divi becomes 5% of XDivDt. From Analysis of tw and psn I came to the conclusion that Divi was 4.6% of Sp before XDivDt before FatCats stopped buying. This could represent 21 * Divi (not doing numbers now!) I apologise for lack of definite numbers, but I hope you understand my basic ideas, and don't look at late tw trades - either they are going bust, or the numbers mean nothing at all! Btw last year tw Sp increase from Post New Year Trough (20/01/17) 168 to Peak 200 (21/04/17) 200 = increase of 19%, or if 186 + 19% = 221. Convinced this year will be far better! Have you looked at nano? No Boat to miss! BoL, and I look forward to hearing from you.

Hi Troubles Messed up again today. I intended to sell �2k in sge to buy �2k in nano in Isa, but sold �2k in sge and bought �2k in trading A/c in nano (no doubt using my credit facility). Just put thru a buy of �2k for nano in Isa and waiting to see if it has gone thru. BoL

Hi HeresHopin Thankyou for your kind words. I am trying to justify my point of view at the moment and I hope you enjoy reading it. Should finish it later. That's something to look forward to! Basic premise is all builders are so massively undervalued now, (cos of Brexit), so the Sp is driven by the Divis. This infers that a unique buying opportunity now exists where NigRule-17 applies (very rare), so you can say what the sp will be just before XDivDt, cos of FatCat Cash grabbers. Putting the numbers together now, which I hope, will explain my point of view. Hardly got anything done at all tonight. BoL

Hi Troubles I like the first quote 'Time is an illusion ...'. Read a bit about Quantum Science (seriously weird!), but according to some people (multiple Universes), every possibility exists. That requires x, y, z, t coords also, u - Universe identifier. Seems too complicated to me and unnecessary. My idea is if some Mass is timeless, it exists all over the Universe all of the time and into the future - you cannot detect it because it does not exist there at that moment of time. 2 Slits experiment is explained by photons only acquiring time when they are observed - ie until observed they are timeless, and could have gone anywhere (before/after observation? Or what does before/after mean if timeless). Spiritual side. The choices you make determines the future of your Universe (or everyone's as well) and in this way you could create your own Heaven on Earth. If this is true I don't know the turning points I made to get into this S**t now! Miles behind in housework etc cos heavy weekend, about to start work at 01:30 so won't get much done tonight. Last idea. What is the point of Seti looking for Radio-waves in space when send/receive time will be a minimum of 10 years, when via quantum mechanics, Coms should be instantaneous thru the whole of the Universe! Have you a small base value in agma? BoL

Hi Tom Going to buy some more from Sge in my Isa later. If they do take off don't want to be paying CGT on them. Might also do same in Trading A/c. Then in April transfer a lump of nano from Trade to ISA. ISA looking good - set up 23/11/17, builders almost �1k down but nano over �2k up = profit �1,079. ISA will be top heavy with nano (over 50%) but Nig no Mouse! Good idea to keep an eye on agma - issues with production but if they sort that they will take off as well. Not holding my breath though! BoL

Hi Graham Imho what we are seeing now is no more than the ebb and flow of Sp. According to my calcs the New Year slump is already late. It could continue, but is overdue. The significant things that have/will happen are rdw IntRes, (07/02/18 - excellent), bdev IntRes (21/02/18), psn FinRes (26/02/18) and tw FinRes (27/02/18). This is the corner approaching, not brokers reports, nor RICS, ONS, US Farmers, or any other. Numbers from Accounts are the main Drivers. My dates might be wrong but won't be far out, don't know if they are based on last year, or looked up, so (to do), need to Color Code! Wife is fine and about to be discharged, though absolutely knackered right now cos the kids (and partners) had been keeping her awake all day, but they were great! Between us since Friday, there has always at least 2 people with her which I am sure helped, and also the expressions of support from my friends here. Thought for the Day. Most people think that the Universe is big cos of distances. With Quantum entanglement, no distance exists because it is timeless. Possibly this idea could explain dark matter/energy and all sorts of spiritual things. Eliminate time and why shouldn't a company of Roman soldiers walk thru a basement in York, at the level of the old Roman road. Interested to hear other peoples points of view. BoL

Hi Tom Troubles Just found this https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B01JLR99/ Makes me even happier that slimey shorters are losing money Big time. I know I shouldn't wish harm on anyone - but they are not people! BoL - really fancy a drink as well but I have to drive.

Hi Tom Congrats on the buy. I suggest a new policy - Hold and buy more on weakness - ie Don't trade these. BoL