Member Info for Nige_W

Thanks Tom Newcastle one hour away so we intend to move up there to a bungalow in a village West of Newcastle, where my daughter is looking to live, (close to partners parents and family0. Nano up 19.2% this week and could take off at any time so I hope you get back in there. Where are you cruising this weekend? - I am sure you will enjoy it. BoL

Hi Troubles Thanks for your kind words. My daughter lives up in Newcastle, about 1 hour away, so no nappy issues right now. Predicting 208 +, and I think your idea of 215 should be close. I think the closeness of FinDiv and SpecDiv should mean some people merge them so 10.40 + 2.44 = 12.84 and at 5% (= * 20) = 257. So somewhere between 208 and 257, but probably closer to 208. 208 is average price of my float - definitely not selling below that, so probably have to hold for divi and wait for recovery. Things going nicely at the moment, but still a long way behind where I thought we would be. Don't know what caused early 2018 slump in builders, but nano looking good, trade account in profit now (Isa already was). BoL.

Ps Wrote all this ages ago but Lse Snafu again so copied to Notepad and sent now just before going to bed. Just not good enough!

Hi Bamps Unsurprisingly, shares bought always equals shares sold. Not really worth watching. The volume probably doesn't include late trades (after the last UT deal) and not really worth watching either. You did well to get in at 186 - I think min price 208 by XDivDt (31/05/18). BoL Hi Tom Hope you are well and M4 still working. Not been on Hols but a bit preoccupied - just become a Grandad (first time), but wife still not very well. Also trying to figure out how to work new Dell PC (with windows 10), new Smarter than me Samsung tv, new Samsung tablet and mobile, which are also both smarter than me! Now just need a new Laptop. Don't know whether to go for a big (screen) Dell, or a funny Samsung fold-able thing. All paid for psn IntDiv of 125! Only 3 companies worth watching for big Divis - bdev, psn and tw. Interesting to note Sp on XDivDt and recovery time. Date, S/p, Divi, 20 * Div, Yld%, Recvr, Tot Yld% bdev 27/10/16, 457, 24.70, 490, 5.40, 1 week, 6.53 26/10/17, 656, 34.40, 688, 5.24, No Recvry, 6.52 - Sp 26/10/17 656, now 560. Early 2018 slump. bdev struggling ? 20 * rule gives higher numbers than actual. psn 15/06/17, 2275, 110, 2200, 4.84, 0 week, 6.02 (FinDiv) 08/03/18, 2597, 125, 2500, 4.81, 4 weeks, (IntDiv) 14/06/18, ????, 110, 2200, 4.05, ? weeks, 8.91 (FinDiv) If psn had simply added the extra 100 (prev IntDiv 25) to Fin Div = 210 then 20 * 210 = 4200 (CurPrc 2683). The almost 9% Yield in a growth company is probably unique! tw 02/06/16, 190, 9.20, 184, 4.84, No Recvry, ???? (don't have prev Int and Final) - Due to Brexit disaster. 01/06/17, 185, 9.20, 184, 4.97, 7 weeks, 6.46 31/05/18, ???, 10.40, 208, 5.47, ????, 8.00. Like psn 8% Yield in a growth Coy is brilliant. Hope the above makes sense and numbers are correct - half way thru I realised some were not updating correctly. Hope you are still in nano - 17.6% increase this week, while most builders down a little. Kept my port +ve. BoL

Hi Tom When this site seizes up (which is happening far too often now) I go directly to http://www.londonstockexchange.com/home/homepage.htm where you can set up your own Port and Watchlist. Also Advfn - great Boards but don't like the format. Sp reached 190 02/06/16 (XDivDt) on SpDiv 9.20 pps = 4.84 % Yield. Sp reached 185 01/06/17 (XDivDt) on SpDiv 9.20 pps = 4.97 % Yield. Now Divi 10.40 pps and assuming Yield of 5.00 % then Sp will be (on 31/05/18) 10.4 / 5.00 * 100 = 208 = 20 * 10.4 My assumption before was since FinDiv and SpDiv less than 2 months apart, you could assume div was 10.4 + 2.44 giving an over optimistic value. BoL

Hi Riolto, Graham et al What happens to Ftse, Brexit or Trade Wars has nothing to do with supply/demand for housing in this country, if you need to buy a house you have to! This is why it is ridiculous that builders are worst affected by Brexit. They export nothing (no trade wars), indirectly employ EU workers who could leave UK, but are they bovvered, while a collapse of � just makes our housing cheaper to foreigners. The percentage cost of imported materials in a house is lower than any other sector (who make anything). Just like Utes (that have massive debts, while builders have loads of cash), demand is not affected by external political or financial ideas - I need to live somewhere, keep warm and eat. Keep warm, (Utes), eating (Supermarkets) have massive debts and very slow growth, just compare those solid companies with builders (by Profit, EpsG, Divis, Per/Peg, Pbv, Margins, Cash (gearing)... The sectors that should feel the pinch are manufacturing and services - not building, utes or supermarkets. End of rant! How long it takes people to realise this I have no idea, but quite happy making 7%+ Divis, while Sp going up and timing Buys Sells to coincide with Sp movement. BoL

Hi Graham I couldn't believe Sp could get down to 185, so can't believe it can go any lower. If Brexit goes badly wrong it could have a small effect on builders, but imho not enough to change their relentless growth (might just slow it a little). Don't know why a drop in Ftse should have any effect on builders, whose Sp should reflect the companies accounts ie Eps ... You could argue the cake is smaller so tw slice becomes smaller, but the intrinsic value of the company remains the same, so Sp should remain the same and all other companies should shrink by a bit more (which could be affected by a Trade War). Probably wrong again. BoL

Hi Tom Looks like Fatcats gone awol here - just have to wait for end of May. At worst its a good divi. Just a matter of time before Sp bounces back to where it should be (260+) - but then how long will that take? Based on 185 (Cur Price) * 13 (pre Brexit Per) / 9.1 (Cur Per) = 264. Nothing to do til end of May for me, so just planned next Year Isa with a nice little calculator. Assuming Isa is 20k - is there any chance of this changing? Nano Interim Results out on 10th and I expect a big move in Sp as a result. Just hope it will be +ve. BoL

Hi Tom To get the total of FinDiv and SpecDiv, Fatcats must buy this week, so hoping for a good rise this week. Not long to wait now. BoL

Hi Sunset As you noticed I do not have a diverse portfolio, but all indicators I can think of point to builders being as cheap as chips right now. Best Divis, best growth, most cash, lowest Per/Peg, so am not too bovvered. Increased sales almost guaranteed by Govt, and as psn and bwy proved in the last slump, if you have loads of cash you just stop building until conditions improve. All builders have loads of cash now. Last point, if builders are cyclical what is the length of the cycle? Margins and Eps have been growing for the last 10 years, and this shows no sign of changing. BoL

Hi Johnson I need 208 to break even on my float, 2p hardly covers trading costs. My prediction of 260 seems almost impossible now, but is based on trading to make cash. Still think (hope!) Sp will be closer to 260 than 210 by 31/05/18. 10.6 * 20 = 212 in line with your statement , but if you include FinDiv of 2.3 then 12.9 * 20 = 258. In order to do that Fatcats have to buy before FinXDivDt (07/04/18 - Saturday? - all from my system which I'm getting worried about!) This means if my system is working a big increase in Sp next week, otherwise 258 won't happen. BoL

Hi Sunset First of all this messgae is no criticism of your system, nor advice. Just a statement of my opinion Fwiw. Congrats on your dealing with bdev and your loyalty to the company (though most investment gurus would say sentiment should play no part in investments). Both tw and bdev almost went bust 10 years ago (tw went down to <10, bdev to < 50), so they had greater potential to bounce back, which they did and outperformed the other builders for about 5 years (until around 2013). They have now lost that advantage and are under performing psn, rdw and bwy for about the last 2 years. I think bdev used to build the most houses but by MrktCap psn �7,812M, tw �6,053M and bdev �5,327M, followed by bkgh �5,241M, bwy �3,737M and rdw �2,205M. Also I think you will find that psn yield (of 9.3%, as of today when Sp 2528, TotDiv 235) greater than bdev. Bkgh special case cos based in London/SE (like crst and bvs, which they have massively outperformed). Very well managed company. Bwy my best company - longest held (since 12/12/13) average price 1456 now 3038 = 109% profit, also made almost double the profit on completed deals, to my current cost. Don't know if you invest in other sectors, but Imho Builders the only place to be (82% of my port). BoL

Hi Tom Growth in profits (so Eps), margins, dividends are all increasing for builders, and yet a disaster is built into the Sp, (by the low Per levels). psn sees no disaster by promising 235 divis for next 3 years. I sent a message on bdev board with details proving why psn and rdw leaders, followed by bwy and bkgh. Very late again, but I had to go for a blood test early, so got a bit of kip in the afternoon. Still not too concerned about a Trade War, Brexit, Interest Rates ... and just see a massive overreaction again to a hint of meaningless bad news. Stick with builders, maybe diversify into psn, rdw and bwy. One thing to remember is if psn doubles in price in a year, and even if itv stays the same price, you are far better off with psn. Like I said I moved money from tw and rdw to psn at a loss because of psn potential. BoL

Hi All Working late as usual and putting graphs together for builders. I have shares in bdev (and bkgh, bwy, rdw, psn and tw) and bdev performance not looking good. Sp 20/03/15 - 531, 18/03/16 - 571, 17/03/17 - 543, 16/03/18 - 527. ie Lower now than 3 years ago! Start of year slump (when builders should be booming!) psn - 10.2%, bkgh - 10.5%, rdw - 11.3%, tw - 12.2%, bwy - 18.3% and bdev - 20.2%. I also calc Relative Price (% increase since): Since 06/01/17 rdw 138, psn 134, bkgh 133, bwy 124, tw 112, bdev 111. Since 01/01/16 rdw 129, psn 128, bwy 112, bkgh 105, tw 93, bdev 88. (Brexit effect). Since 02/01/15 rdw 208, bwy 167, psn 166, bkgh 156, tw 139, bdev 119. I used to do same calcs for crst, but got rid of them - worse than bdev! I move a float between the 6 companies trying to catch the increases due to RNS releases. If you Analyse these numbers you might think tw and bdev are not worth bothering with, while bkgh has a surge just before their Interim Results, and bwy, could be a bargain right now. My float is in psn, rdw and tw now, and losing money on all of them. Hoping for a (very!) big surge before end of May. Anyway, I think all builders are massively undervalued now and on the verge of a big correction. These numbers are created by my system (so I cannot guarantee they are correct) but look about right to me. So must DYOR and let me know if any numbers are wrong. BoL

Don't know what caused it (a Trade War would of course stop people buying houses!), but first few months of year usually good for builders. Since 05/01/18 (to 23/03/18): psn -10.2%, bkgh -10.5%, rdw - 11.3%, tw - 12.3% and bwy - 18.3%, bdev - 20.2%. psn have promised 235 divi for next 3 years = 9% +, are they bovvered about Trade War, interest rates, Brexit ...? BoL

Ps Meant to say ... company to self, and unlimited expenses. The Trump trade war could limit the Fatcats profits, "Can't even afford new sails for my yachts this season!" All is madness, so the politicians can benefit from these systems they set up. I think 7 days from FinXDivDt and tw going North. BoL

Hi WiganW Maths not quite right I admit. Couple of assumptions, first you sell at your buy price, so buy today (at 185.8), hold to pick up FinDiv and SpecDiv = about 7%, and wait for price to recover to 185.8 to sell, then 7% in bank (at no cost - other than tiny trade costs). This means buying about 2 months before XSpecDivDt and having to wait for Sp to recover to 185.8 before you can sell. You don't believe it (and I have my doubts), but if Sp 260 by end of May, and decreases 7% = then Sp = 260 - 18.2 = 241.8. You can sell immediately and 241.8 - 185.8, making you an additional 56 pps = 30%. ie 37% in 2 months! Second point, Buy now and you have to hold 2 months until XSpecDivDt before you can sell - then wait another month or so before it is paid, so basically 3 months before cash in bank, which my Maths does not take int account. Last idea, if they are Fatcats they won't be paying tax anyway, Investment Company in Jersey, IOM, BVI ... (sole shareholder paying Divis from company to self, an) then no difference between CGT and Divi (both = 0%).

Hi Tom FinXDivDt only just over 1% so I think it will make little difference. Having said that if I was a Fatcat buying the Divi, it makes sense to buy both, so maybe a surge before FinXDivDt, and little chance of a drop after (holding for Special). My system does not predict prices, so all I can say is the price 2nd April should be about the same as the high before FinXDivDt. I admit 260 looks a long way off, but in this case Sp driven by cash, not sentiment. Just have to wait and see. Again psn leading the way having guaranteed 235 Divi for the next 3 years, thereby demonstrating their belief there is no disaster on the way. Last point, if I was a Fatcat I get 7% cash - even if I have to wait 6 months for Sp to recover that is 14% pa. Worst case - if no recovery in Sp still made >8% (+ Int Div) - where else do you get that? BoL

Hi Troubles I saw your discussion with l Nigwit the Great, and realise perception and reality can be separated by a large %age. Always like to think reality will prevail, but don't know how long that will take. Best part is (despite builders reaching a far lower level than I thought possible), there can be only one direction for them now. Could be wrong again. Cameron threw the dice and lost, presenting Theresa with a next to impossible task. She is probably better than anyone in Govt to resolve it, so best of luck to her, but we do need a new election. BoL

Hi Graham Massive overreaction as usual to a possible trade war, and builders pulled down because of it. But yet again I say, what has this got to do with British Builders? My daughter is going to but a house, what has changed for her? Some people upgrade by buying a new home but what %age are they? Most people buy because they have to, (marriage, new job in different area, kid on the way, need a bungalow...) Cannot believe how cheap builders are now - just wish I still had some reserve float. If you do the rung system it is time to buy, tempted to use some HSBC credit, or sell house and rent, cos Sp can't go any lower. Probably won't cos I've saying this for ages and Sp still going South! BoL