Member Info for Nige_W

Sorry - sent by accident. My old laptop needs replacing desperately - hinges collapsing now. Anyway almost finished my rant. Last point, we need a new GE cos what MP's were standing for or not has completely changed. To jump into the deep end (without having a clue what it means - Brexit), is stupid. Now it is becoming a little more resolved we should be asked again if that is what we really want. BoL

Hi dividendchaser I am in process of rewriting my system (as usual) and cannot believe how low tw and all other builders Sp are. There must be fundamental ways of valuing a company. Profit, Margin, Debt or Cash in bank, prospects... and for builders everything is positive. More complex measures like Per, Peg, Pbv reflect the things I just mentioned. Market sentiment is so negative a bounce to 260 before the end of May looks almost impossible. But if all you do is buy money (the Divi of 2.44 - 05/04/18, Fin Div and 10.4 - 31/05/18, Divi = 12.84 pps) today at 184 then the return is 7% over about 9 weeks. Of course you need to wait for the price to recover to sell (could be 1 week - 350% return, 1 month - 72% return, 6 months - 14% return), 1 Year only 7% + IntDiv (about 2.3 pps). However you look at it you get 7% cash, and at the very worst another 7+ %, next year (assuming no increase in Sp! - Eps have been increasing every year for the last 10 years, but not Sp because of Brexit). If I had �1M to invest knowing I can �70,000 return (absolute minimum) that is 10* better than my daughter makes on National Savings (0.7% rate). Small issue with numbers, you need to get into tw today (holding shares 9 weeks longer) and wait for DivPayDt. Does not change the fundamentals. It will be interesting to see how far I am out. Hi Troubles Don't know how Brexit can affect house builders. Are people going to stop buying houses here because we are not in EU? If � devalued does it matter - land prices, labour wages will decrease by the same amount and a small improvement in materials costs cos most made in this country

Hi Troubles Love your quotes - don't think a war with Russia will help the economy. Maybe short term! 4 minutes? Nothing is agreed till everything is agreed, is no more politicians words that mean nothing at all. Leicester winning Championship has even less meaning. BoL

Hi Troubles You talk of a dip or double dip in Sp. Working late as usual but just got this into graphs, tw Sp: 30/12/16, 154, 10/03/17, 192 = 24.7% increase 29/12/17, 206, 09/03/18, 188 = 8.7 % decrease Ie Sp is now 33.4% less than equivalent dates last year. There is no reason for this as Brexit going better than expected, Imho. I still believe 260 possible before end of May, anticipating a 38.3% increase. In process of doing same calcs for other builders, but I think all are basically the same. Could be wrong again! BoL - who needs nano?

Hi Graham Sounds like he has a grudge. If he bought a tw home under a leasehold that is his fault, nothing illegal with what tw did, nor any other builders, but tw is the only one to allocate money for compensation. So hope it is a tw home he bought (for his sake). This really needs Govt legislation, but they never do anything if they can help it, or try to blame the issue on somebody else if they can'y ignore it, hence those Peers on holiday in Europe for next ? months at our expense. New program on telly about UK disasters and could they have been prevented. No doubt all could have been and if we had adopted EU regulations, they would never have happened. Grenfell is beyond belief to me. How many EU regulations were ignored in that! Simply could not have happened in most of EU. Heads should roll, but since the Govt is ultimately responsible, probably nothing will happen at all, or they will blame somebody else. End of rant and BoL

Hi Calisto Just had a look at: https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/ No mention of shorts on big builders. This time of year is usually good for builders (until end of May) and prices already behind schedule, so I am hoping for big improvements soon. BoL

Hi WiganW After the sea of blue (late trades) tw 0.5% up, but so are the other builders and bkgh up 2.1%, but this is probably just a reaction to the overreaction to the last RNS. Tempted to buy some more (bkgh) before FinRes (around 20/06/18), particularly because my plan is to sell most of my float before end of May. BoL

Hi Gate13 The UT trade should be ignored (as you say) but fixes the buy/sell prices before late trades, which are private deals. So if I offer to buy 10,000 shares @ 260 in tw, then Ice or Tom could say I accept that offer. Sale goes thru. If you buy without setting a limit the trade will go thru as a sell by the seller, cos he got his sell price. If you set a limit the trade will go thru as your buy, cos you got your buy price. Easy way to test my theory is set buy limit just above price for a specific number shares (1,023) and trace transaction (should be a buy), then do the same without a limit (should be a sell). All Deals done automatically (Type A) are done by Sets - personal Deals (between me and Ice/Tom) are Type O, after Sets UT adjustment. Market makers not involved any more since Sets, but the incidence and value of late trades has increased, making me think they work together as a little club or something? If those number were really bought after UT, you could expect the buy price to increase much more than it did. So, again as you said, probably has no meaning at all, for whatever reason. BoL

Hi Graham Number bought Always = number sold. If I buy 1,000 shares in tw I buy at the sellers price so goes thru as a sell, and vice-versa, so pretty meaningless. Much more interesting is the late trades, today tw a sea of blue. The incidence and value has increased significantly in recent months. Don't know who makes these trades, but many buys over 185 and 3 of over �1M. But probably no affect on sp tomorrow. BoL

Hi My2p That is why Govt should be working with builders, not against them. What was the purpose of the inquiry they set up other than to have a go at builders. At least we can't expect anything else from them until they get back from holidays in Europe that we are paying for. BoL

Hi Riolto Noticed this about bkgh before, downbeat PreFin followed by good FinRes, and then they say didn't we do well! Loads of cash, 30% margin, Per, Peg amazingly low so safe as houses. Could be an opportunity but London situation is worrying. My av price 2428 so 56% up. Will hold but not buy more. BoL

Hi Alpha Don't do shorts but agree with your reasoning. The one possible flaw is people like me who intend to sell before XDivdt and possibly buy back on a big drop after it. Just need to identify the trough after the peak. BoL

Hi Tom Numbers picked from thin air to show my point of view. With a big increase in Divi and better than expected results I think psn has more potential for increased Sp than tw (Divi and results in line with expectations). Don't know how long you have been with ITV, but since 06/01/17 psn Sp increased by about 35% with almost 10% Divi now. Don't know numbers for ITV, but I know of no (Ftse100) company that can match that. BoL

Hi Troubles Your definition of absorption rate is spot on - you must not saturate the market. No point in building houses nobody wants. The Govt should work with builders to try to solve this issue - not against them. Europe has traditionally a much larger rented market than UK, cos if Russians/French/Germans... invade you have lost everything. Don't know the situation in US but imagine similar (nations replaced by Earthquakes, Hurricanes ...) Unfortunately I was not invited (no Title) but a nice holiday at our expense. BoL

Hi Troubles I worked on a couple of very big estates for Geo Wimpey years ago (could take 10 years or more to finish). I think the basic policy was to build the same types of houses within the estate (all 3 bed semis or whatever) so you can't really build all of them at the same time cos you will saturate the market. I think the reasoning behind this was that you don't want to mix terraced housing with posh stuff, cos sales will suffer. (Absorption?) Whether the houses are all cheap or posh, you won't sell posh if surrounded by cheap. So even if planning permission approved for 5,000 cheap houses you can't build them all at the same time. Phased releases was Geo Wimpey way then. Opportunities for rivals? How are they limited? You bid for the land on sale - who puts it up for sale, with planning permission? The Govt destroyed half the builders 10 years ago, so the survivors don't really have much competition. Probably more people working in planning now than the people building the houses! Alaska OK if you where enough layers! Far too late again, nother EMail to daughter. BoL

Hi Troubles Expecting big rise in tw soon (on the way to 260 just before 31/05/18). FatCats should be moving in soon and as the price increases more will be bought as they see their opportunity disappearing, but must admit 260 looking a bit optimistic now. Not long to wait so we will see. Hi Tom I realise you don't like to sell at a loss, but if psn increases by 50% while tw increases by 25%, you would be better off selling at a loss, to get into psn. You also have a little loss to set against profits for CGT. BoL

Hi Bamps Not saying builders are going to stop building. This is just the worst possible case scenario. The Govt is more or less guaranteeing sales, which is not a bad place to be. Given builders results, Govt (double houses built target) ... just cannot understand how sentiment is so -ve. BoL

Hi Jarcon I think you can't go wrong with psn with a 125 divi on the way (due on 29/03/18) and a further 110 (02/07/18) ie 235, when Sp only 2558. Whether you hold for Divi or sell at a profit before XDivDt (14/06/18) is up to you, but PreInt around 05/07/18, so may not take long to recover. Sp target 20 * 2558 = 5116 is too optimistic cos Divis too far apart to justify simply buying the Divi. My idea is to sell all float (in tw and rdw) before end of May and buy psn Divi of 110, then sell on recovery - hopefully 05/07/18. If you follow that plan please don't tell me cos it makes me worry! BoL

Hi Jarcon The rate of growth of builders might be slowing a little (despite margins still increasing), but my optimism is based on the fact that they are all massively undervalued. I have never seen such low Per's before, let alone for growth companies with loads of cash in hand. If a disaster does happen (built into the price), they just stop building until a recovery, as shown by psn and bwy 10 years ago. In the mean time I am quite happy picking up the Divis (psn almost 10%). BoL

Hi SL To predict Sp movement for Tech Coys like Nano from Graphs is completely meaningless to me. No more than a bit of fun. Nice that you did the research and support their idea, but Imho applies to Banks, Insurance, Utes and Builders, but not dynamic companys like Nano. I am into Builders and not very likely that tw will announce next year they will increase building by 500% - nano could, or do even more than that! Chalk and Cheese. BoL, I have shares in Nano and am expecting great things soon.